Golden State Warriors -7.5
Warriors/Trailblazers Over 220
TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN TUE NITE MLB DOUBLEHEADER I
Game: (955) New York Mets at (956) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: May 14 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Mets -146
PLAY: New York Mets -146 (good to -160)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Syndergaard and Hellickson
(955) New York Mets at (956) Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals come home off a 3-7 road trip with an offense that is scuffling. The Nats were nearly no-hit in a 6-0 loss Sunday versus the Dodgers. They are not hitting nor is their defense allowing their pitching staff to keep them in games they are struggling to score (.980 fielding percentage and a .236 team batting average).
The New York Mets send Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the first game of the series. Thor has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last six starts and squares off against a struggling Jeremy Hellickson.
Syndergaard's surface numbers don't represent how he has pitched. He has seen a number of his fly balls leave the part, allowing seven homers in 49 innings this season, but his reliable peripherals are in line with his career numbers. Syndergaard has been one of the more unfortunate starters among all pitchers in the first month-plus. His 5.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP are not a measure of who he has been. His K rate (26%) and walks (6%) along with his ground balls (52%) are all the mark of an elite pitcher.. not one with a 5.14 ERA. His hard contact has risen from 25% to 32%, last year to this season, but even at 32 percent he is head and shoulders more effective than his counterpart tonight.
Hellickson has struggled in his last four outings, going 0-1 with a 7.79 ERA after starting the season 2-0, 2.63 in three starts. The veteran right-hander has been taken deep six times in his last four turns. Even in Hellickson's more efficient outings this year he has been unimpressive. An example of such was his 3 singles and 4 walks over 6 shutout innings against the Phillies, striking out 6 to win his first start of the year. There wasn't a lot that impressed me about the outing save his GB rate that he posted. And note that Hellickson has always been a flyball pitcher that doesn't miss enough bats to gain traction when supported by an offense that can't bunch hits together.
While I want to suggest a run-line investment on Syndergaard and the Mets tonight rather than lay the buck-fifty or so money line my charts suggest keeping to what has been successful this season making this the largest ML investment of the young season backing a well rested Mets squad against a Nats group that is essentially playing their eleventh straight road game (this being their first off a 10-game swing as a visitor). The first night home after a 10-game or longer road trek is, as I suggested, the same as an eleventh road game.
NEW YORK METS -146
FINN TUE MLB DOUBLEHEADER II
Game: (953) Milwaukee Brewers at (954) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: May 14 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-114)
PLAY: Under the Total of 8.5 runs (good to 8)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Woodruff and Eickhoff
(953) Milwaukee Brewers at (954) Philadelphia Phillies
For the second straight night the temps will be cool at Citizens Bank Park with a slight chance of rain and winds blowing from the left field to right field corners at nearly 10 mph.
The Phillies forged a 7-4 victory on Monday night that saw them score 3 runs that began with a strike out/passed ball... and five of their seven runs came with two outs.
Both of tonight's starters are in good form. Brewers RH Brandon Woodruff (5-1, 4.25 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Jerad Eickhoff (2-1, 1.50) are slated to take the first inning mound.
Woodruff surrendered just one run for the third straight turn, albeit against a injury riddled and slumping offense of the Washington Nationals six days ago. The right-hander struck out nine and didn't issue a walk. The Phillies' current roster is 2-for-20 with five strikeouts against Woodruff.
Woodruff is consistently reaching 95-98 mph with his fastball. And his plus slider is handcuffing right-handed hitters. He has struck out 23 across his last 16 innings and fanned 23 batters. His flyball tendencies are mitigated by the conditions in Philly tonight with the strong winds blowing left to right.
And Woodruff catches slugger Bryce Harper at the right time. Harper is on one of his streaks.. this one being a slump... having struck out three times in the series opener.
Eickhoff tossed 8 shutout innings against the Cards the middle of last week at The K versus the Royals. He only struck out 4 but generated 12 swinging strikes on just 106 pitches and induced 16 ground ball outs. Eickhoff has surrendered just one run in 25 innings outside of Colorado this year. His hard contact rate has dropped down under 30%, and combined with the improved command tonight he has a plus-matchup against the Brewers.
The Phillies continue to pitch around Yelich and right-handed veteran Ryan Braun continues to be held out of the lineup in the cold weather due to a hamstring strain.
Ramon De Jesus is scheduled to call balls and strikes tonight. His K-Zone is neutral by most measures. He is part of the new order of umpires and his tendency is to enlarge the zone in conditions like tonight which are cool with a chance of scattered showers.
UNDER THE TOTAL of 8.5 runs
3* #956 Washington +125 (Hellickson)
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