FINN MONDAY NIGHT BASEBALL CASH (5-0)
Game: (907) Houston Astros at (908) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: May 13 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Detroit Tigers +138
PLAY: Detroit Tigers +138 (good to +120)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Peacock and Boyd
(907) Houston Astros at (908) Detroit Tigers
This AL event on Monday night pits a public Astros squad vs a rebuilding Tigers outfit at Comerica Field. The forecast for the Motor City on Monday night is cool and overcast with a slight chance of light showers. In addition the pitcher-friendly venue is less so with a 10 mph wind blowing out to center field.
The visiting Astros are the cream of the American League West and with or withou improving their starting rotation will, all things being equal and the current roster staying healthy, will win by 10-plus games. In truth this Houston squad would be the best in the entire American League if they still had Dallas K as one of their starting five.
The Astros send Brad Peacock to the hill to oppose the Tigers Matt Boyd.
Peacock has been pushed into a starting role this season when the club didn't resign free agent Keuchel. And while Peacock is a quality long reliever his posture as a starter isn't one that stands tall and walks with a swager. Peacock is the fifth stater and is by any measure pitching like such. The right-hander is coming off a seven inning and three hit scoreless outing that resulted in a 9-0 win over the Royals at Minute Maid Park. However what Peacock accomplished in the win over the Royals doesn't speak to his true form.
Peacock's last six turns has resulted in the Astros going 3-3. He has only two decisions in those half dozen starts, one win and two loses. The win, as mentioned, came against KC in his last start, the pair of loses are - at Minnesota and home versus the same Twins.
The outing before his last turn and victory against the Royals wasone of the two losses against the Twinkies. Peacock got the hook after just 3.2 innings in which he surrendered 7 runs on 8 hits with 2 walks while striking out a pair. The short outing elevated his ERA to 5.28, and his 4.66 xFIP which offers evidence besides me stating that he simply has not been good in 2019. His 7.63 K/9 is a shadow of the 10.98 K/9 and 13.29 K/9 that he posted in 2017 and 2018, respectively, And while his 2.64 BB/9 is actually lower than last year’s career-low 2.77 clip it isn't so signficant that it make one dig harder for postive underlying peripherals.
Peacock is striking out fewer batters and opposing hitters are making a ridiculouly high hard contact of 41.3 percent. Peacock’s average velocity is down as much as two m.p.h. with his fastball and his command is, being nice, less than middling.
His surface WHIP coming into this game is a Magic Mushroom edible mirage. The 1.09 WHIP isn't in the same orbit as his 4.30 ERA and 4.56 xFIP.
The Tigers left-handed starter, Boyd, is producing and excelling with an average offense inside of a franchise that has sold off their high salaries and isnt just rebuilding but doing so... in no hurry.
Boyd is coming off another quality outing, another victory and across his last seven starts has seven quality qualifications. It is becoming old hat, routine and expected that when the big lefty takes the mound all the Tigers have to do is support him with three-plus runs and it will result in a victory.
Boyd raised his record to 4-2, allowing only three hits and no walks while striking out six, in a win over Mike Trout and the Angels. The seven straight quality starts for Boyd have come against the Angels, Royals, at the White Sox, at Fenway Park, against the Pirates, the Indians and at Yankee Stadium.
He has tossed 6 innings of two runs baseball allowing five hits, two walks and 9 K’s against the White Sox. Boyd has out-pitched Chris Sale and the Sox and the start of his seven straight QS he struck out a career high 13 batters versus the Yankees.
Boyd as a 2.86 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, he is striking out 31 percent of the batters he faces and walking less than five percent. His K to BB ratio is a ridiculously good 63:13 in 50 innings of work. And his 16% SwStr ranks with the elite in the league. And is comes via his elite slider -- behind a 43% O-swing and 21% SwStr. His GB to FB rate is a career high, moving from a career low 29% last season to a solid 40% this season because of that slider. Throw in his 0.57 HR/9 this season and it makes him a value-packed investment in any venue in the American League --- especially at Comerica -- with any wind blowing out.
The same can't be said of Peacock whose flyball tendencies and 40 percent hard contact put him in line to be yanked from Monday nights game early... unless he pitches above his pay grade and season peripherals.
Getting Boyd on home dirt and grass at a plus-money price against a pitcher that is struggling to get swings and misses, keep the ball in the ball park and allow less than five runs per start, is a no-brainer.
DETROIT TIGERS +138
Cleveland Indians -1
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