Thursday 5/9/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
ROB VENO
Game: (515) Denver Nuggets at (516) Portland Trail Blazers
Date/Time: May 9 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -4.0 (-110)
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John Morrison Tony Chau
Atlanta Braves {A** Bet on the Money Line - This is an official betting series.
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Ben Burns
3*
Philadelphia +2
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Spartan
3*
St.louis -139
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Greg shaker
3*
LA DODGERS / Washington over 7
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Goodfella
3*
1st Half of Season GOY"
Dodgers -145
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Stephen Nover
3*
Portland / Denver under 215.5
2*
Boston -147
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JR ODONNELL
3*nba
Philadelphia +110
3*
Philadelphia / Toronto over 213
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Kyle Markus
NBA - Philadelphia 76ers +2.5
MLB - Washington Nationals +1.5 runs (-160)
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Rooster's Moves
09-May-2019: 916 Yankees over 9 (3%)
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Stats Analytics Sports
NBA 160-142 (53%) +16.43 units Overall
Thursday Night *Eastern Conference Closeout* - Double Dime Toronto Raptors -125 (Moneyline)
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Adam Thompson
UNDER 8.5 ATLANTA @ ARIZONA | 5/09 | 9:40 PM EDT
Two of the higher-scoring teams in the league face off. The Braves and Diamondbacks combine to plate 10.1 runs per game this season. But that number shrinks to 9.8 when it comes to the Braves on the road and the D'backs at home, and to 9.5 in the last week. I expect it to take another hit with the two starters on the mound Thursday. Mike Soroka is 3-1 with a 1.15 ERA all season, and Luke Weaver is 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last four starts combined. Each team has so-so bullpens, but each starter went seven innings last time out. The Under (-108) seems sound.
10-4 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS | +483
COLORADO -152
SAN FRANCISCO @ COLORADO | 5/09 | 3:10 PM EDT
The Giants' offense has picked it up of late, averaging 6.7 runs per game while hitting .263 in the last week. But that's still not as good as the Rockies, who are at 7.5 and .274 over the same span. Overall, Colorado's offense is better in just about every way, and they face Derek Holland, who the lineup is a lifetime .309 hitting against. Kyle Freeland has been a major disappointment for the Rockies, but the Giants are especially bad under the sun, averaging 2.8 runs in day games, half the number of Colorado.
10-4 IN LAST 14 MLB ML PICKS | +483
15-8 IN LAST 23 COL ML PICKS | +509
HOUSTON -159
TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 5/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
Mike Minor is straight-up dealing for the Rangers, sporting a 1.43 ERA his last six starts. But that's the only good thing going for Texas on Thursday. Houston is a robust .282 hitting against LHPs with an OPS of .859, its .289 average at home ranks first in the game and its .290 average in the last week is the best in baseball, too. Wade Miley will go six innings and give up roughly two runs -- maybe fewer against a Rangers offense that's .217 against LHPs -- then the top bullpen in the AL takes over.
10-4 IN LAST 14 MLB ML PICKS | +483
17-5 IN LAST 22 HOU ML PICKS | +1111
18-9 IN LAST 27 TEX ML PICKS | +762
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Stephen Oh
ST. LOUIS -141
PITTSBURGH @ ST. LOUIS | 5/09 | 7:45 PM EDT
My projections have the Cardinals toppling the Pirates nearly two-thirds of the time in their Thursday meeting, making St. Louis worth the moderate price. The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight home games against opponents that have winning road records. They are also 6-1 when Michael Wacha starts Game 1 of a series.
42-24 IN LAST 66 MLB PICKS | +1751
18-6 IN LAST 24 STL ML PICKS | +1316
7-0 IN LAST 7 PIT ML PICKS | +740
OVER 8.5 CHI. WHITE SOX @ CLEVELAND | 5/09 | 1:10 PM EDT
My numbers see the White Sox and Indians plating at least 10 runs in their Thursday meeting, pushing past the Over with room to spare. I've got the Over hitting in nearly 70 percent of simulations. The White Sox are on a 7-1-1 run to the over against right-handed starters and these clubs are on a 4-1-1 spurt to the Over in their last six meetings.
42-24 IN LAST 66 MLB PICKS | +1751
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Stats Analytics Sports (MLB) - Big Thursday
Two Top 3* Plays...
MLB
3* Yankees/Mariners Over 9
3* Dodgers/Nationals Over 7
Good Luck
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Tim Wilkinson
MLB - Pirates/Cardinals Under 8.5
NBA - Nuggets/Trailblazers Over 215
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Dave Essler
3*
Philadelphia / Toronto over 213.5
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King Creole
2*
Toronto -2
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Master Sports
MLB
4* #907/908 Atlanta/Arizona under 8.5 (Soroka/Weaver)
Big AL
3* - Portland Trailblazers -4
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Scott Spreitzer
8-U NBA CONF G.O.Y.! Thursday!
I'm laying the points with the Blazers on Thursday night. Portland played as poorly as they possibly can last time out and they got blown out, forcing them to win tonight or start making summertime tee times. The Blazers made just 10 of 37 3-pointers and 16 of 30 free throws, while also getting thumped on the glass. I'm betting they bounce back by a spread covering margin tonight. First things first for Portland, if Nikola Jokic scores 35, so be it. But they can't let so called role players take them down. Paul Millsap doubled his season scoring average last time out after scoring 9 points over his average in Denver's 116-112 win, a night when Jamal Murray topped his average by 16 points. Basically, let Jokic get his, make sure no one else beats you. Portland knows they're capable of doing this after completing the task in a 97-90 win in Denver in game 2. Portland enters on a 16-4 ATS run in revenge of a double digit loss and they're on a 7-0 ATS run this season in revenge of a double digit road loss, out-scoring the 7 opponents by an average of 117-109. I'm laying the points with the Blazers on Thursday. Thanks & GL!
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
SFG/COL F5 UNDER 5 +100 3u
CIN/OAK F5 UNDER 4.5 +100 1u
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Carmine Bianco 5% Chelsea -1.5
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Miller locks
8:05 pm est nba
toronto raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
pick: Toronto raptors -2 (-108)
risk: 11 units
10:10 pm est mlb
washington nationals vs. Los angeles dodgers
pick: Over 7 (-116)
risk: 11 units
10:35 pm est nba
denver nuggets vs. Portland trail blazers
pick: Denver nuggets (+145)
risk: 11 units
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Seabass : 400 pirates game over , 300 rangers , 300 diamondbacks , 300 bruins game over , 500 Blazers game over , 800 Blazers
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Steve Budin - CEO
Thursday's Play
The New York Crew has its 50 Dime play on Toronto at Philadelphia. The Raptors are -2 at 3:05 PM Eastern as I put my site live.
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Tom Fornelli
Pirates +125
Toronto UN 212
Portland UN 215.5
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Larry Hartstein
Toronto -2
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Philly Guy - Astros Rockies Cubs (W)
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TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN THU NL CENTRAL HI-ROLLER
Game: (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: May 9 2019 7:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +130
View Analysis
PLAY: Pittsburgh Pirates +130 (good to +110)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Musgrove and Wacha
(905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals starting rotation has arrived in the funk that was inevitable. And with free agent Goldy slumping the Redbirds are trending in the wrong direction in argubaly the most competitive division in the bigs.
The combination of Musgrove not having his best stuff and receiving some poorly timed fielding mistakes in his last turn against the A's resulted in his first poor outing of the season. The Bucs right-hander allowed 7 runs (five earned) -- on just 6 hits - across only 2.2 innings. The 5 earned runs Musgrove surrendered nearly matched the total number of earned runs (6) he had surrendered the entire 2019 season.
Like any house of cards or a train of dominoes one flaw or mistake can make a situation messy... especially in baseball. Jung Ho Kang committed a pair of throwing errors in the 2nd inning that lead to 5 runs -- and that was Musgrove's undoing last week.
Joe Musgrove (1-3, 2.63 ERA) comes into tonight's start with solid xFIP (4.14) and his turn tonight is favorable against a lineup that scored one run in their three-game set versus the Phillies and rotation and bullpen have returned to the orbit they live in.
In Wacha’s second start since returning from the injured list, he allowed four earned runs in five innings while striking out four. Wacha is ridiculously inconsistent with his command. Furthermore he is heavily reliant upon having strike zone that is pitcher-friendly. To Wacha’s defense he has not had the opportunity to find a routine due to injuries and the lack of work from the mound, especially recently, has comprised his command.
Note that in Wacha's starts this season he is only throwing 40 percent of his pitches for strikes. That rate of balls to strikes will not allow him to be successful. The Pirates are not a lineup as a whole that are free swinging and have an above average chase rate outside the strike zone. Pittsburgh, has struck out less than any of their National League brethren. Wacha's walk rate is skewed to some degree with two of his starts resulting in 12 of his 21 bases on balls this season. He comes into tonight’s event with a 6.03 BB/9 -- evidence that he is not 100 percent and has yet establish a consistent release point -- due to the injuries and lack of routine. -
Wacha and the Cardinals are a serious fade right now. This until the middle of their lineup begins squaring the ball up and the less than average starting rotation gets healthy.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES +130
FINN THU NITE NL TOP TOTAL
Game: (907) Atlanta Braves at (908) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: May 9 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-104)
View Analysis
PLAY: Under the Total of 8.5 runs (good to 8)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Soroka and Weaver
(907) Atlanta Braves at (908) Arizona Diamondbacks
You would think Soroka, now healthy, with a versatile and consistent pattern of outings, would be receiving more news and notes from the media, both nationally and via portals. Not that headlines are what Soroka wants or needs, but the lack of coverage of what he has accomplished with the young core of players on this club is a surprise.
Each start the Braves right-hander just keeps getting stronger. His velocity has increased, he is relying on his sinker more than his four-seam fastball, and the results have seen a heavy increase in his ground ball to fly ball ratios. The 21-year-old rookie made his season debut versus Arizona on April 18, giving up one run on four hits, over five innings of work.
Put a right-hander on the mound against the Braves, one that can induce ground balls, and you have a recipe that offers an opportunity contain their offense. Luke Weaver went five innings in his last start against Atlanta, striking out nine, and doing so in a season in which he is inducing ground balls at a 70% clip.
Weaver is coming off a seven inning work of art. The right-hander pitched to one-run while striking out eight while resulting in a 9-2 win over Colorado.
UNDER THE TOTAL OF 8.5 runs
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Gavazzi
3% St. Louis (-130) Risk $300 to win $231 7:45 PM ET
3% Atlanta (-110) Risk $300 to win $272 9:40 PM ET
3% Washington (+140) Risk $300 to win $420 10:10 PM ET
3% Seattle (+145) Risk $300 to win $435 6:35 PM ET
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