Thursday 4/25/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Thursday's MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Fezzik
3* Spurs -2.5
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Mlbtotal
Seattle : Over 8.5
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Fezzik
3*
San Antonio - 2.5
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Ben Burns
3*nhl
St.louis -150
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King creole
2*
San Antonio / Denver under 208
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Stephen Nover
2*
Arizona +112
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Spartan
3*
New York Yankees -110
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Sleepyj
3*
San Antonio / Denver over 208
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Diamondbacks +105
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Tony Mejia
Spurs/Nuggets Under 207.5
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Hackman
Jackets +1.5 -215
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Tim Wilkinson
MLB (Best Bet) - Astros/Indians Under 8 (-114)
NHL (Series Wager)
Columbus Blue Jackets +125
Colorado Avalanche +110
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
2* Marlins/Phillies Over 7.5
1* Detroit Tigers +188
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Hot Shot Sports
MLB
3* #911 Cleveland +135 (Bauer)
Goodfella
3*
San Antonio -3
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Dave Essler
3*
LA ANGLES +100
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Tony Finn
BASEBALL PLAYS
BIG TICKET 5% AL GAME ~ MONTH (5-0)
Game: (913) New York Yankees at (914) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Apr 25 2019 9:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: New York Yankees -115
View Analysis
PLAY: New York Yankees -115 (good to -130)
5% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Tanaka and Cahill
(913) New York Yankees at (914) Los Angeles Angels
The Yankees veteran right-hander Masahiro Tanaka picked up his first career win against the Royals last Saturday. Tanaka allowed one earned run on four hits. He struck out seven with the negative in the outing being three bases on balls. Note that a part of his command issues were weather related. The cold and damp conditions of the Bronx resulted in just the second time in his career he has walked three or more -- this in back-to-back starts.
If there is a pitch that is difficult to command in cool temps it is a splitter. Tanaka continues to improve with each passing start. Not just this season but during his MLB career. He should be considered a crafty veteran with the arsenal he sports. In addition, despite not having his best, healthy, defensive personnel behind him he lowered his season ERA and WHIP, 2.76 and 1.23, respectively.
Tanaka doesn't have elite command but his 5.5 BB percentage fits his 8.46 K/9 rate. His hard contact percentage has decreased with each start the Thursday night contest against the Angels and Cahill is nothing short of a mismatch. Tanaka does a great job of keeping the ball in the park and pitching at Angels Stadium is a walk in the park compared to that of Yankee Stadium and the carry that the Bronx air permits. Tanaka's 1.3 HR/9 rate makes the Halo's a long shot to put up crooked numbers in any of the early innings.
As successful as Angels starter Trevor Cahill appeared to have started the 2019 season the results were a mirage. This when examining his underlying peripherals and his performances since late March and early April.
What the veteran needs to be uber-successful he doesn't have heading into tonight's contest against the Yankees. Not only does Cahill face the task of getting the current Yankee lineup to swing at offerings outside of the K-Zone he requires an umpire that doesn't have a tight strikezone. He receives neither in this Thursday night affair.
Across the last week of MLB action the Yankees have drawn the second most walks of any lineup in the league, second to only Seattle. And New York is hitting nearly .275 against opposing pitchers secondary pitches which is equal to that of their average versus the fastball.
Cahill is all about getting swings and misses outside of the K'Zone and an umpire that is adept at calling sweeping curves and drop off the table offspeed pitches --- trust me when I tell you that Blakney is not that home plate umpire.
In addition Cahill’s 2018 ERA and contact rate to close the 2018 season was warm weather solid.. and came against an average of four minor league call-ups, September expanded roster lineups, a season ago. His 75.1% contact rate in his last fifteen games was the highest mark he had the entire season and that trend has continued in 2019. With the caveat that during his last three starts he continues to lose confidence in his stuff, or lack thereof.
He is not longer a ground-ball heavy pitcher and the result has seen him allow the same number of home runs (8) in 21 innings of work than he allowed last year in 121 innings. His hard contact percentage is trending the wrong direction and Angel Stadium isn't as pitcher-friendly as that of the Coliseum he pitched half of his innings in last year.
Offensively the second lineup, currently the first for the Yankees, have easily outperformed Mike Trout and the Angels. And an injury to 3B Zach Cozart leaves the Angels with a defensive hole at the hot corner.
During Spring Training there were ridiculous articles from Angels faithful, biased by a large measure, that claimed that the Halos had improved themselves in the offseason. There were some that went as far as to claim that the additions of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill put the team in a position to win the AL West. I won't mention the author of this but it is more than fair to state that the author doesn't know baseball.
The add of Justin Bour this offseason clogs the bases more than benefits the offense... Bour does find a way to get on base but the most valuable player on offense outside of Trout is the consistency and the bat of Jonathan Lucroy. And the addition of closer Cody Allen isn't significant because this team won't have a lot of late inning leads this season.
The weather in Los Angeles, the scheduled home plate umpire's strike zone and the bottom line pitching matchup significantly favors the Yankees. First pitch temps are expected in the high 70's with a 5-10 mph wind blowing to center field. Blakney will prove to be a nightmare for Cahill and the Yankees have more walks than the Angels have hits through five innings.
NEW YORK YANKEES
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Al DeMarco
Arizona DiamondBacks
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WORLDS WORST PICKER
All Regular Plays: Los Angeles Dodgers Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels
Play ON the OPPOSITES
Last night 2-0 if you played the opposites
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11th Hour Sports
11th: MLB, 8u: 902 PIT-.5+145 1st 5. PIT-1.5+185g. PIT O 3.5 1st 5. PIT O 7g. 904 CUB-.5+145 1st 5. CUB-1.5+185g. CUB O 4 1st 5. CUB O 8g.
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Greg shaker
3*
New York Yankees +101
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Stephen Nover
2*
Arizona +112
Added:
3*
Dallas +135
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Michael Rusk
OVER 9 ATLANTA @ CINCINNATI | 4/25 | 6:40 PM EDT
10:24 AM
On its face, this pitching matchup seems like an enticing matchup for the Under. But the splits indicate otherwise. The Braves' Julio Teheran has a career 5.73 ERA in Cincinnati, and Reds starter Luis Castillo enters this game with a 6.75 ERA against the Braves, which is the second highest amongst any team he has faced. Now, with a little more firepower added to each of the lineups, I see this total being shattered by the seventh inning. The Over shouldn’t be an issue.
24-11-1 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +1066
L.A. DODGERS -116
L.A. DODGERS @ CHI. CUBS | 4/25 | 2:20 PM EDT
10:18 AM
Interesting stat that catches my eye: Ross Stripling is by far a better pitcher during day games than night games. In fact he is 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA in day games while he is 9-17 with a 3.82 ERA during night games. This is an edge I really don’t think should be overlooked. Also, Jon Lester continues to be given a luxury tax a bit late in his career. Let’s not forget he was pulled just two innings into his start against the Pirates earlier this month due to hamstring tightness. I like the Stripling and the Dodgers to take this one on the road at essentially even money.
19-6 IN LAST 25 MLB ML PICKS | +1169
8-3 IN LAST 11 CHC ML PICKS | +460
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAD ML PICKS | +68
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Tom Fornelli
UNDER 8 L.A. DODGERS @ CHI. CUBS | 4/25 | 2:20 PM EDT
11:51 AM
The wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field this afternoon, which is typically good news for pitchers and bad news for hitters.
7-4 IN LAST 11 MLB O/U PICKS | +244
7-3 IN LAST 10 LAD O/U PICKS | +401
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Larry Hartstein
SAN ANTONIO -2.5
DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO | 4/25 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:29 PM
Facing elimination, the Spurs face a must-win Game 6 on Thursday night in San Antonio. They're too good and have too much pride to put in another subpar performance like the one they did in Game 5. Coach Pop won't allow it. Take the Spurs to cover and force a Game 7.
96-71-1 IN LAST 168 NBA ATS PICKS | +1784
31-19-3 IN LAST 53 DEN ATS PICKS | +1013
3-1 IN LAST 4 SA ATS PICKS | +189
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Mike Barner
DENVER +3
DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO | 4/25 | 8:00 PM EDT
1:22 PM
After being down 2-1 in this series, the Nuggets have stormed back to win the last two games by at least 14 points each. As tough as the Spurs can be, the Nuggets are the more talented squad. While this game being played in San Antonio could make it more competitive, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Nuggets put the Spurs away. Take the points Thursday in Game 6.
3-2 IN LAST 5 NBA ATS PICKS | +78
7-5-1 IN LAST 13 SA ATS PICKS | +147
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