Monday 4/22/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Monday's MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Stephen Nover
3*TOM
New York Mets / Philadelphia under 8.5
1*
Dallas / Nashville over 5
2*
Dallas -125
3*
Houston -2.5
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Spartan
3*
Houston -2.5
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Ben Burns
3*
Detroit +12.5
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Goodfella
3*(NBA)
Houston -140
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JR ODONNELL
3*GOM
Nashville +110
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Greg SHAKER
3*
Houston / Utah under 214.5
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TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN MON NITE BASEBALL HI-ROLLER 7-0
Game: (967) New York Yankees at (968) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Yankees -111
View Analysis
PLAY: New York Ynakees -111 (good to -125)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Happ and Harvey
(967) New York Yankees at (968) Los Angeles Angels
There is little to no value on the New York Yankees, not across a full season of baseball, and entering tonight's event between the Yankees and Angels the 11-10 Bronx Bombers are in the red for those that have backed them them the first four weeks of the 2019 regular season.
A combination of 13 injuries in four weeks, a slow start by lefty J.A. Happ, and a game three time zones away from the Big Apple -- PLUS -- the opposing pitcher's name value has kept the books from positioning the Yankees as a juicy ML favorite in this Monday Night Baseball event in SoCal.
Happ enters the game without a win after four starts with an ERA of 7.23. The lefty has a 5.57 career ERA vs. the Angels and comes off a no-decision in the Yankees' win over the Red Sox last Wednesday. The start versus the Sox was, however, his best of the 2019 campaign. He allowed three earned runs over 6 1/3 innings.
Happ has scuffled execute his typically good command early in his starts. The change in venue
Happ didn't impress in his turns against the bottom of the AL East, Baltimore, but his ERA and his surface stats are deceiving. Happ has a solid swinging strike percentage and the majority of his batted ball with hard contact are a result of missing his target... e.g. his control has been subpar.
The warmer SoCal weather will be a plus for Happ. He has a history of better results in the warmer months and April on the east coast has resulted in most of his pitches being throw in damp and cool conditions (average temp in the mid-50s). First pitch in LA Monday night is expected to be perfect baseball weather with temps in the mid-70's.
The move from Toronto last July saw the 36-year-old register a 2.69 ERA over 63.2 innings. Happ moved from being sinkerball-heavy to four-seam happy after joining the Yankees. The change resulted in a 26.3% strikeout rate -- and no pitch resulted in more swings and misses than his fastball. One of the reasons for his early season struggles has been the cold temps and the venues he has pitched in. When Happ takes the mound in hitter-friendly venues, Yankee Stadium as an example, he will not rely on his fastball to the percentage he did late last season. The reason being it turns his ground ball to fly ball rate home run friendly.
The current Yankees lineup is not what most expected when the 2019 campaign saw the season open in late March. In truth unless you are an AL East follower, a Yankee faithful, or play in a half dozen fantasy baseball leagues, the New York lineup is almost unreconizable.
Happ recorded 7 quality starts in his 11 New York turns when he made his first pitch in pinstripes last September. His velocity last September returned in his last start against Boston and the left ready to continue his mid 30's rediscovery of a 25 percent K rate and career high swinging strike percentage.
Happ, across his last 20 starts, rates 20th in the Finn Factorfstarting pitcher rankings, with career bests in WHIP, K% and SwStr%. His ERA across those 20 starts is sub-3.00 with an xFIP of 4.36 against teams that rank in the top half of the majors in OPS. His matchup against the Angels on Monday night puts him in a position to not just record his first victory of the season but do so in impressive fashion.,
The other good news for Happ is that he will oppose former Mets All-Star right-hander Matt Harvey (0-2, 9.64).
Harvey, in a nutshell and despite his mid-90's fastball, isn't fooling even the most inexperienced bats. After a somewhat successful debut with the Angels the right-hander has been tossing batting practice. In a three-start stretch during which he has lost twice while posting a 10.05 ERA, -- he has allowed 18 earned runs and 22 hits in a total of just 12 2/3 innings.
When a former All-Star is tossing a four-seamer at 95-plus mph and not fooling hitters it is time to become a long or late inning reliever... because returning to success as a starter isn't going to happen. As mentioned, while he has still averaged 94 mph on his fastball, the exit velocity and hard contact percentage on Harvey batted balls is 93 mph. Harvey's Hard Hit percentage has climbed exponentially. In 2015 his hard contact percent was near elite... at 26.7%. Last year Harvey's HC rate was 38.9%.. and this year it is 42%.
The level money-line price point in this contest is one of the few times that the Yankees won't be -150 or more regardless of venue and opposing starting pitcher... This will be one of the few times you can catch a favorable Yankee matchup at a near pick'em investment and.... I pounce.
The Angels are slashing an absolute obscene .206/.299/.320 versus southpaws this season and have hit just five home runs in nearly 230 at-bats against lefties.
NEW YORK YANKEES -111
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HUDDLE UP
NBA 750,000* Lock:
Houston -2'
NBA High Roller Total:
Milwaukee/Detroit over 218
Best Bets:
Milwaukee -12
Houston/Utah over 213
MLB Grand Slam Lock:
Philadelphia Arrieta -107
Best Bets:
Triple Play: NY Yankees Happ -112
Double Play: Houston Peacock -179
Single Play: Detroit Boyd +185
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Rockdeman Sports
MLB
Detroit Tigers +1.5 runs
Yankees/Angels Over 8.5
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Friends of Mike Lee
MLB
3* #967/968 Yankees/Angels OVER 8.5
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Stephen Oh
UNDER 218 MILWAUKEE @ DETROIT | 4/22 | 8:00 PM EDT
The last two games of this series have gone over. But just barely, by a combined 8.5 points. The game before that went under on its own by 8.5, and my projections see Detroit's defense having its best effort of the series. The Pistons haven't shown enough ability to push the number on their own, so take the Under (-112), which hits in two-thirds of my simulations.
23-18 IN LAST 41 NBA O/U PICKS | +308
3-0 IN LAST 3 DET O/U PICKS | +300
DETROIT +12
MILWAUKEE @ DETROIT | 4/22 | 8:00 PM EDT
The Pistons have given us little reason to think they can compete at all against the Bucks, losing all three games so far by an average of 24 ppg. But Blake Griffin is questionable, and if he plays, this is a lot of points. Even if he doesn't, the Pistons should show some pride and go down fighting. My projections see a single-digit game, with Detroit covering in two-thirds of my simulations. Take the pile of points with the home team.
72-64 LAST 136 NBA SIDES | +239
3-2 IN LAST 5 DET ATS PICKS | +81
UTAH +2.5
HOUSTON @ UTAH | 4/22 | 10:30 PM EDT
The spread has moved five points in Houston's direction since the opening line after escaping with a three-point Rockets home victory. But Utah is a tough place to win -- this is just the third time the Jazz will be a home underdog, both when Golden State came to town, and Utah covered in both. Houston got little scoring from James Harden and still won Game 3, but my projections like the Jazz playing to the final possession and covering.
72-64 LAST 136 NBA SIDES | +239
25-16 IN LAST 41 HOU ATS PICKS | +764
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Hackman
stars -135
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Larry Hartstein
SAN ANTONIO +5.5
SAN ANTONIO @ DENVER | 4/23 | 9:30 PM EDT
The Spurs have played tremendous ball in Denver this series, and I like them to bounce back from their Game 4 dud with a very competitive effort if not an outright win here. Derrick White and Rudy Gay will play better, and coach Gregg Popovich will make the needed adjustments. Grab the points.
94-70-1 IN LAST 165 NBA ATS PICKS | +1695
31-18-3 IN LAST 52 DEN ATS PICKS | +1124
3-0 IN LAST 3 SA ATS PICKS | +300
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Adam Thompson
N.Y. YANKEES -122
N.Y. YANKEES @ L.A. ANGELS | 4/22 | 10:07 PM EDT
The Angels are a respectable .286 hitting team at home. But the Yankees are hitting .286 on the road and averaging about a run more than L.A. does at home. While the Angels can hit the ball, they whiff against lefties, just .206 so far as they prep for J.A. Happ. Happ has been very mediocre this year, but he's coming off his best start and last year was much better on the road. He also mowed down the Angels in his one start against them. L.A. starter Matt Harvey hasn't gone longer than 4.1 innings his last three starts. The Yankees have been worked over by injury but still have the personnel to get to Harvey.
5-2 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS | +189
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAA ML PICKS | +59
MINNESOTA +160
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON | 4/22 | 8:10 PM EDT
No team hits better at home than the Astros, who are a ridiculous .335 and averaging 6.0 runs per game there. But the Twins are hitting .298 on the road and averaging 6.9 runs away from home. They're also the top-ranked team against right-handed pitchers, and Monday face Brad Peacock, who was a reliever last year and was sent back to the pen after a rough outing. He's back in the rotation for now. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Jake Orodizzi is coming off his best start and this Astros lineup is just .237 against him all-time.
5-2 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS | +189
16-5 IN LAST 21 HOU ML PICKS | +951
7-2 IN LAST 9 MIN ML PICKS | +465
PITTSBURGH -141
ARIZONA @ PITTSBURGH | 4/22 | 7:05 PM EDT
Arizona has won when it outscores opponents, but that's going to be tough against Joe Musgrove, who's allowed two earned runs in 22.1 innings. The D'backs have great offensive stats on the year but are averaging only 3.0 runs per game in the last five, so they're coming back to earth. D'backs starter Zack Godley has been on his game twice, and off twice. But he's been far worse on the road in two starts, restarting a 2018 trend.
5-2 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS | +189
5-1 IN LAST 6 ARI ML PICKS | +465
3-1 IN LAST 4 PIT ML PICKS | +175
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Rocky Atkinson
2*
Chicago White Sox -120
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Michael Rusk
BALTIMORE +100
CHI. WHITE SOX @ BALTIMORE | 4/22 | 7:05 PM EDT
This wrong team is favored here Monday night. The White Sox are now looking to Manny Banuelos who has proven he can’t be a successful starter in the MLB. After a short stint pitching in 2015 for the Atlanta Braves, he finished 1-4 with a five plus ERA. I look for plenty of signs of rust for Banuelos who hasn’t pitched a start in over four years. I am not head over heals for Orioles pitcher David Hess, but I do believe since Chris Davis has woken up, the Orioles shouldn’t be overlooked in this matchup. I like them to roll at home and the underdogs here.
15-4 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +1044
6-1 IN LAST 7 CHW ML PICKS | +584
3-0 IN LAST 3 BAL ML PICKS | +305
HOUSTON -175
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON | 4/22 | 8:10 PM EDT
Brad Peacock has emerged as one of the more dominant pitchers in the league. Looking for his fourth straight win, Peacock has the upper edge in this matchup. Houston bats have come alive and should be well prepped to pitch against Odorizzi who they beat up in the last matchup. Houston’s home record shouldn’t be overlooked as they enter game 21 undefeated at home. Look for Houston to win their fifth straight at home against the Twins.
15-4 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +1044
3-0 IN LAST 3 MIN ML PICKS | +300
OAKLAND -149
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 4/22 | 10:07 PM EDT
There a few reasons why I like the Athletics in this matchup. Recency bias is a main reason why the public is high on the Rangers. The Athletics are very undervalued after getting swept at home by the sub-.500 Blue Jays. Chris Bassitt is on a four-game win streak and has seemed to find his groove in this latter part of his MLB career. He also is significantly better at home (3.07 ERA) comparing to a 4.71 ERA on the road. The Athletics should break their slump Monday night.
15-4 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +1044
3-2 IN LAST 5 TEX ML PICKS | +145
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King creole
2*
Houston / Utah over 214.5
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Greg SHAKER
3*
Houston / Utah under 214.5
Added:
2*
Washington +110
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Mike Barner
MILWAUKEE -12.5
MILWAUKEE @ DETROIT | 4/22 | 8:00 PM EDT
This series looked like a laugher right from the start and it has been, with the Bucks winning all three games by at least 16 points. Even with Blake Griffin back for Game 3, the Pistons couldn’t keep things close. The Bucks could earn important extended time off before the second round with a win Monday, so look for them to keep their foot on the gas and end up covering once again.
65-52-3 IN LAST 120 NBA ATS PICKS | +747
4-0 IN LAST 4 MIL ATS PICKS | +400
6-3 IN LAST 9 DET ATS PICKS | +266
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Mike McClure
OAKLAND -123
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 4/22 | 10:07 PM EDT
The A's are undervalued at home against Mike Minor. This Oakland team is sneaky good against left-handed pitching with a .353 team wOBA against southpaws and a BABIP of just .269 which is over .100 lower than teams with similar wOBA numbers. I have the A's winning 62 percent of simulations making them a strong value at -123.
11-6 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS | +499
6-3 IN LAST 9 TEX ML PICKS | +313
3-2 IN LAST 5 OAK ML PICKS | +66
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baseball33
Detroit Tigers +2
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Dirty Bear Sports from cappertek
MLB:
HOU F5 -.5 -120 3u
MIL/STL F5 over 4.5 -120 1u
TEX/OAK F5 under 4.5 -110 1u
MLB Season: 16-16-2 50% -13.70 units
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Strike Point sport
3 Unit Hou -3
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BIG AL
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Washington Capitals. When the 'Canes blasted the Caps, 5-0, in Game 3 and then followed that up with another victory in Game 4, it seemed like most of the air had gone out of the balloon of the defending Cup Champs. After all, that Game 4 win for Carolina included taking out one of the Caps best players in forward TJ Oshie, who will miss the rest of the post-season with a broken collarbone. But the Caps did the 'Canes' Game 3 tally one better on Saturday night, pounding the visitors, 6-0, in front of a frenzied sold-out crowd at Capital One Arena in DC. Now the Caps have to go back into Raleigh, and this series seems to have Game 7 written it all over it, as and the home team is 7-1 in the last eight meetings of these two (including 5-0 in this series). The 'Canes are 6-1 in their last seven games revenging a road blowout loss by three goals or more and 12-5 in their last 17 coming off of a loss to a division rival. Take Carolina.
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Sportsvipvegas 4/22
Detroit +183
Arizona +125
Baltimore +105
NYM -1 (+128)
Oakland -1 (+1-3)
Angels -105
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SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (573) Milwaukee Bucks at (574) Detroit Pistons
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 218.0 (-110)
View Analysis
The Bucks have dominated the Pistons all season. The question here is whether the Pistons will be passive or aggressive. The evidence supports the latter.
Detroit is 7-0 OU (+10.36 ppg) as a home dog off a game as a dog when they lost at least four straight vs their opponent. Fitting in very nicely here is the fact that the Bucks are 7-0 OU (+19.64 ppg) off a win when they won at least three straight vs their opponent.
The Bucks also qualify for a league-wide multi-season, playoff-only system. It states that NBA teams are 11-0 OU (+15.0 ppg) in the playoffs when they have less than two days rest, they are off a road game, and they are facing a team they beat at least two straight.
In addition, the Pistons are 11-0 OU (+14.05 ppg) as a home dog with rest off a loss in which they scored at least 20% of their points from threes and 6-0 OU (+16.42 ppg) as a home dog off a loss in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points.
The key-player trends reveal that the Pistons are 7-0 OU (+11.86 ppg) as a dog after a game in which Andre Drummond had a plus/minus at least five points better than the team.
Detroit only shot 38.5% from the field in game three. Milwaukee, now up 3-0, can relax on defense. They are feeling unbeatable and the don’t need to play defense to beat the Pistons.
Since late 2018 Milwaukee is 11-0 OU as a favorite by at least seven points when they held their previous opponent to less than 40% shooting, going over by an average of 18.45 ppg.
The Bucks have a lot of subs that love to fire up threes in garbage time (Ilyasova, Hill and Mirotic). We are on the OVER.
MTi’s FORECAST: Bucks 123 Pistons 109
Game: (575) Houston Rockets at (576) Utah Jazz
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 214.0 (-104)
View Analysis
The Rockets shot 38.4% from the field in game three, but they prevailed 104-101. We expect a similar effort here. Houston is 0-13 OU (-12.35 ppg) with rest off a win as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field.
The Rockets are also 0-10 OU (-10.50 ppg) on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after a game that was tied five-plus times and 0-7 OU off a win as a dog in which they trailed after the third, staying under by a massive 20.29 ppg on the average.
Houston only had 19 assists in their game three win, and Harden dished out ten of them. This activates a key-player, playoff-only indicator. Houston is 0-8 OU (-13.12 ppg) in the playoffs after a game in which James Harden had at least half of the team’s assists.
It is also worth mentioning that the Rockets are 0-6 OU off a win as a dog in which James Harden shot under 45 percent was their high scorer, staying under by an average of 17.08 ppg.
Turning our attention to the Jazz, we find that they tend to play low scoring games when they have double-revenge. Utah is 0-10 OU as a rested dog after playing as a home favorite when they lost at least two straight vs their opponent. They have stayed under by an average of 16.9 ppg in this spot and this including an overtime game that stayed UNDER.
The Jazz have been sharing the ball on offense and this also points to the UNDER. Utah is 0-9 OU (-16.83 ppg) as a dog off a home game when they are off two games in which more than 65 percent of their field goals were assisted.
Finally, we have a couple of key-player indicators working. The Jazz are 0-8 OU (-11.56 ppg) at home when Donovan Mitchell scored a least 15 more points last game then he did two games ago
and 0-8 OU THIS season off a home loss in which Joe Ingles attempted more three pointers than two pointers, staying under by an average of a whopping 20.81 ppg. We make the play the UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: JAZZ 102 Rockets 93
Game: (575) Houston Rockets at (576) Utah Jazz
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Utah Jazz 2.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Game three was a back-and-forth battle in which the Rockets just prevailed at the end. Now down 0-3 in the series, the Jazz effectively are playing for pride. We like the character of the Utah squad and we also think that the Rockets will take their foot off the gas after their victorious game three battle.
Since early THIS season Utah is a perfect 11-0 SU and 11-0 ATS with less than two days rest off a loss that was tied at least four different scores. They won straight up by an average of 17.82 ppg and covered by an average of 11.36 ppg. They were the underdog twice and they won both straight up; beating the Celtics 98-86 in Boston and the Warriors 108-103 at home.
On the other hand, the Rockets are 0-8 ATS as a road favorite off a game as a dog that was tied at least three times.
In game three, Donovan Mitchell lead the scoring for the Jazz, but he only shot 9-for-27 from the field. James Harden led the Rockets in scoring, but he was a brutal 3-for-20 from the field. Both of these point to a Jazz cover. Utah is 12-0 ATS after a game in which Donovan Mitchell shot under 45 percent but was their high scorer and the Rockets are 0-8 ATS as a road favorite off a game as a dog in which James Harden shot under 50 percent was their high scorer.
Continuing, we see that the Rockets are 0-9 ATS on the road off a win in which they shot under 40% from the field and 0-8 ATS with less than two days rest off a win in a road game after a win in which they trailed after each of the first three quarters.
Lastly, the Jazz are a resilient 10-0 ATS (+12.05 ppg) after a loss in which the number of free throws they missed was greater than the losing margin and a beast-mode-like 9-0 ATS (+14.61 ppg) as a dog with rest off a loss when they lost at least four straight vs their opponent. The Jazz won each of the last eight straight up and they were getting at least four points in every one of those wins. Impressive.
We would be very surprised if Houston was able to sweep here.
MTi’s FORECAST: JAZZ 102 Rockets 93
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