Saturday 4/20/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Saturday’s MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Spartan
3*
Seattle +109
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Fezzik
3*GOM
Brooklyn +2
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Stephen Nover
2*
Chicago Cubs - 130
3*
San Antonio -3.5
1*
Oakland -138
2*
St.louis / Winnipeg under 5.5
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Dave essler
3*GOY
Brooklyn / Philadelphia under 232
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Rocky Atkinson
3*
Milwaukee -8.5
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
8:10 PM EST
Rotation #961-962
Phillies/Rockies Over 10.5 runs
Nola/Senzatela
The Phillies tied a franchise record last night, but not in a good way. 19 runners were left on base which was the most ever on the road for this team. The weather today will be perfect and the wind will be blowing out. This is a hitters ball park and I believe the Phillies will bust out today. Phillies Starter Aaron Nola has looked really bad to start the season for the Phillies and in this ballpark I don’t expect him to snap out of his slump. Take the Over.
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Kyle Markus
NBA
Nuggets +3.5
Nuggets +155 (Moneyline)
Nuggets/Spurs Under 208.5
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Tim Wilkinson
NBA - Top Play
Houston Rockets +3
MLB - Top Play
New York Yankees -1.5 runs (-124)
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Stephen Oh
HOUSTON +2.5
HOUSTON @ UTAH | 4/20 | 10:30 PM EDT
Utah is the desperate team. Down 2-0, the Jazz need to win. But Houston is the better team. Neither of the first two games has been close, and I sense that the Rockets want to end this series as quickly as possible before a potential second round matchup with the Warriors. Take the Rockets.
70-62 LAST 132 NBA SIDES | +258
24-16 IN LAST 40 HOU ATS PICKS | +664
OVER 208 DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO | 4/20 | 5:30 PM EDT
Early money has driven this total down, and that's fine with me. The last two games of this series have gone Over (219 and 226 points), and my model says that the Over hits 63 percent of the time. Take the Over.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NBA O/U PICKS | +89
11-3 IN LAST 14 SA O/U PICKS | +771
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Accu Picks
NBA
3* #561 Milwaukee -9
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Michael Rusk
MINNESOTA -210
MINNESOTA @ BALTIMORE | 4/20 | 4:05 PM EDT
Road favorites are usually not my go-to, but I love Twins starter Jose Berrios, who is 2-0 at Camden Yards with a 1.76 ERA, in the first game of a doubleheader. He is far more comfortable at Camden Yards than the Orioles' own Dan Straily (0-1, 18.00 ERA in three games, including two starts, at that ballpark). The splits indicate the Twins should run away with this one. After losing three of four at home against the Blue Jays, Minnesota will start this series with a convincing victory Saturday afternoon.
18-7-1 IN LAST 26 MLB PICKS | +954
3-2 IN LAST 5 MIN ML PICKS | +119
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAL ML PICKS | +105
L.A. ANGELS -125
SEATTLE @ L.A. ANGELS | 4/20 | 9:07 PM EDT
The Mariners are 10-1 on the road so far this season. Yusei Kikuchi, a rookie with five starts under his belt, starts for Seattle. I understand the hype, but let’s not get carried away. I will take veteran Trevor Cahill any day at home as a slight favorite against an overvalued team that just went on a six-game losing streak. The Angels should take this one.
18-7-1 IN LAST 26 MLB PICKS | +954
8-3 IN LAST 11 SEA ML PICKS | +437
ST. LOUIS +125
N.Y. METS @ ST. LOUIS | 4/20 | 2:15 PM EDT
The Mets are one of the very few teams in the majors that still show no urgency to find a fifth starter. Chris Flexen gets the nod for the Mets, which is great news for the Cardinals. In 12 career road games, Flexen is 1-4 with a 10.48 ERA. The Cardinals will go to 4-1 this season in games started by Miles Mikolas without a problem.
18-7-1 IN LAST 26 MLB PICKS | +954
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Larry Hartstein
MILWAUKEE -8.5
MILWAUKEE @ DETROIT | 4/20 | 8:00 PM EDT
The Bucks and Pistons have played six times this season counting the playoffs, with Milwaukee destroying Detroit in five of those games while winning all six and going 5-0-1 ATS. Lay it as Milwaukee avoids a letdown.
91-70-1 IN LAST 162 NBA ATS PICKS | +1395
31-24-1 IN LAST 56 DET ATS PICKS | +512
26-19-1 IN LAST 46 MIL ATS PICKS | +509
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Sleepyj
3*GOM
Utah -135
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Dave essler
3*GOY
Brooklyn / Philadelphia under 232
Added
1*
Cleveland/ Atlanta over 8
1*
Colorado +105
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Ben Burns
3*
Utah -2.5
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H&H Sports (MLB)
5* Philadelphia Phillies -111
4* Pittsburgh Pirates -131
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Football Jesus
Utah Jazz
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Mike Barner
MILWAUKEE -9
MILWAUKEE @ DETROIT | 4/20 | 8:00 PM EDT
This series felt like it was over before it even started. The Bucks have won both of the first two games by at least 21 points and look well on their way to a sweep. Even if Blake Griffin (knee) is somehow able to return Saturday, he likely won’t be completely healthy. I’ll take the Bucks to win big and cover.
64-50-3 IN LAST 117 NBA ATS PICKS | +867
3-0 IN LAST 3 MIL ATS PICKS | +300
5-3 IN LAST 8 DET ATS PICKS | +166
SAN ANTONIO -3.5
DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO | 4/20 | 5:30 PM EDT
With a loss Saturday, the Nuggets would find themselves in the unenviable position of being down 3-1 in this series. As much as they need to win, they are not a good road team. They were 20-21 away from home during the regular season, which included a 17-24 mark ATS. Meanwhile, the Spurs were 32-9 at home, including 24-17 ATS. I’ll take the Spurs to cover and put the Nuggets on the brink of elimination.
64-50-3 IN LAST 117 NBA ATS PICKS | +867
7-3-1 IN LAST 11 SA ATS PICKS | +369
BROOKLYN +1.5
PHILADELPHIA @ BROOKLYN | 4/20 | 3:00 PM EDT
Even without Joel Embiid (knee), the Sixers pulled off an impressive 16-point win on the road in Game 3. With Embiid listed as doubtful Saturday, they’ll need Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris to step up, once again. The Nets have played tough all season, so I don’t expect them to go down quietly in this series. I like their chances to win this game, so I’ll take the points.
64-50-3 IN LAST 117 NBA ATS PICKS | +867
2-1 IN LAST 3 PHI ATS PICKS | +100
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Big Al
Our 3 selections include the Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays.
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. Few pitchers in the Majors can claim to have as great a two-year run as Charlie Morton had in the past two seasons (2017 & 2018). After spending one forgettable season in Philadelphia in 2016, Morton -- at the ripe age of 33 -- resurrected his career in Houston in 2017, going 14-7 and winning a World Series ring (his first). He did himself one better (minus the ring) last season, going 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA in his first full season of starts since he was in Pittsburgh. But with the depth they had, the 'Stros decided not to make Morton an offer when he hit free agency and he signed with the Rays. So far, Morton has picked up where he left off with the 'Stros, going 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA over this first four Tampa starts. Morton's teams are 22-9 (+7 games on the money line) in his last 31 starts on an extra day or two of rest. Take the Rays.
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Miami Marlins. It's an upside-down season for NL starting pitching so far. The guys we usually count on to be the aces of the League are looking like anything but. Jacob deGrom just left the Mets to get his aching elbow examined, Aaron Nola has a 7.45 ERA, Clayton Kershaw is still trying to get healthy, and Max Scherzer has a losing record with a 3.33 ERA. Admittedly, Scherzer's had just four starts. And just about every other starter in baseball would take that number in a heartbeat. But it's almost a full run higher than what we're used to seeing from the veteran RHP. Perhaps a start against the Marlins will get Scherzer's season back on track. Although his ERA is higher than usual, Scherzer's WHIP is solid (1.07) and he has a sparkling 7.00 K:BB ratio having punched out 35 batters in just 27 innings. The Nats have also beaten the Marlins in each of Scherzer's last seven starts against them going back to August of 2017. And they've outscored them 44-11 in his last four. Take Washington.
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Cincinnati. The Reds are 7-12 on the season, yet have been installed as a road favorite against San Diego. The reason is the perceived advantage for the Reds on the mound. Cincinnati will hand the ball to Luis Castillo, who has a 1.46 ERA this season. But he's struggled vs. the Reds in his young career, with an 0-2 record (3 starts), a 5.17 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP. Castillo will face San Diego's southpaw Eric Lauer, who's been excellent in his career vs. Cincinnati. In two starts, Lauer has a 1.00 ERA, with a 1.33 WHIP vs. the Reds. Cincy is 69-87 (minus 17 games on the money line) as a favorite, and 31-56 (minus 18 games on the money line) vs. lefties. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.
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Big Al
Our 3 selections include the Brooklyn Nets, Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz.
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets plus the points over Philadelphia. The Nets look to even up this series at 2 games apiece after dropping the last two games to Philly. We will take Brooklyn, as home teams have cashed 67% since 1991 when down 2 games to 1 in a series, and not laying 7 or more points. Additionally, the Nets are 6-1 ATS at home their last seven when they were off back to back losses. Take Brooklyn.
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Milwaukee. Detroit finds itself in an 0-2 hole as this series shifts to the Motor City. I love the Pistons tonight, as underdogs of +6 or more points, in the Opening Round of the NBA Playoffs, have covered 67% of Game 3s over the last 29 seasons when they lost the first two games of the series. Take the Pistons.
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston. The Jazz lost by a combined 52 points in Games 1 + 2 of this series. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Utah, especially since it's been installed as a favorite in Game 3. But NBA favorites have actually cashed 62.8% in the NBA Playoffs after losing each of the first two games of a series by double-digits. Take the Jazz. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
2* Pirates/Giants Over 7
2* Athletics/Blue Jays Over 8
2* Phillies/Rockies Over 10.5
1* Texas Rangers +215
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Rockdeman Sports
MLB
Washington Nationals
Mariners/Angels Over 9
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Dirty Bear Sports from Cappertek
MLB:
TOR/OAK F5 UNDER 4.5 -110 3u
PIT F5 -.5 +100 1u
MLB Season: 15-14-2 52% -8.40 units
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sports insights
under spurs nuggets
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LV Wolf
20-Apr-2019: 951 Mets over 9-120
20-Apr-2019: 962 Colorado under F5 6-120
20-Apr-2019: 72 Washington capitals -135
20-Apr-2019: 24933 Crawford/Khan over 9.5+170
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TweetyDimesPicks @CFDimes
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PLAY 9 DETROIT PISTONS 1ST HALF +4
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PLAY 3) NY YANKEES -230 PLAY 4) TAMPA BAY -130 PLAY 5) OAKLAND A’s -137 PLAY 6) UTAH JAZZ -130 PLAY 7) CINN REDS -113 PLAY 8) TWINS YANKEES 2 TM PARLAY
TweetyDimesPicks @CFDimes
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PLAY 2) DETROIT TIGERS / CHICAGO WHITESOX OVER 9 ..
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24-14 last 38 (63%) with a +325 ( Baltimore ) And +180 Detroit -1.5 ) .. that’s more like it PLAY 1 ST LOUIS CARDINALS-140
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Seabass
500 nets , 400 Mets game over , 300 diamondbacks
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