Notifications
Clear all

MLB Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Friday 3/29/19

13 Posts
1 Users
0 Likes
683 Views
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 3/29/19

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:23 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Friday, 29 March 2019 • 04:10 PM
961 HOUSTON @ 962 TAMPA BAY
Play on TAMPA BAY using the money line in All games at home when the total is 7 or less
The record is 19 Wins and 5 for the last three seasons (+17.45 units)
__________________

Friday, 29 March 2019 • 05:10 PM
953 ST LOUIS @ 954 MILWAUKEE
Play on MILWAUKEE using the money line in All games in night games
The record is 70 Wins and 38 for the last two seasons (+31.15 units)
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:24 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Rockies (1-0) @ Marlins (0-1)
Marquez was 14-11, 3.77 in 33 starts LY, 8-5, 2.95 on road. He is 0-3, 7.24 in three starts against the Marlins. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Richards was 4-9, 4.02 in 25 starts LY, his rookie year. He is 1-0, 1.50 vs Colorado. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Last 2+ years, Rockies are 5-8 vs Miami, but they won 6-3 yesterday.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:25 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Cardinals (0-1) @ Brewers (1-0)
Flaherty was 8-9, 3.34 in 28 starts LY; he is 1-1, 2.86 in five starts vs Milwaukee. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Peralta was 6-4, 4.25 in 14 starts LY, his rookie year. He is 0-1, 3.72 in two games (one start) vs St Louis. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Last 2+ years, Cardinals are 16-23 vs Milwaukee- they lost 5-4 yesterday.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:26 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Diamondbacks (0-1) @ Dodgers (1-0)
Ray was 6-2, 3.93 in 24 starts LY; he is 7-3, 2.68 n 15 starts against the Dodgers. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Stripling was 8-6, 3.02 in 33 games (21 starts) LY. He is 1-4, 4.46 in 18 games vs Arizona (four starts). Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Diamondbacks were 22-16 against Dodgers last two years, but lost 12-5 yesterday; LA hit eight home runs Thursday.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:26 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Giants (0-1) @ Padres (1-0)
Holland was 7-9, 3.57 in 30 starts LY; he is 1-2, 6.23 in six starts vs San Diego. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Lucchesi was 8-9, 4.08 in 26 starts LY; he is 1-0, 3.27 in two starts against the Giants. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Last 2+ years, Giants are 18-21 vs San Diego; they lost 2-0 in San Diego yesterday.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:27 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Tigers (1-0) @ Blue Jays (0-1)
Former Blue Jay Boyd was 9-13, 4.39 in 31 starts LY; he is 0-1, 4.30 in five starts against his old team. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Shoemaker was 2-2, 4.94 in seven starts LY; he was hurt a lot. He threw 7.1 scoreless innings in his only career start against the Tigers. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Last 2+ years, Tigers are 8-4 vs Toronto; they won 2-0 in 10 innings yesterday.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:28 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Astros (1-0) @ Rays (0-1)
Cole was 15-5, 2.88 in 32 starts LY; he is 0-1, 3.46 in two starts vs Tampa Bay. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Former Astro Morton was 29-10 in 55 starts for Houston the last two years; he is 3-5, 5.96 in nine career starts against the Astros. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Last 2+ years, Astros are 7-8 vs Tampa Bay; they beat Rays 5-1 yesterday.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:28 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Angels (0-1) @ A’s (1-2)
Heaney was 9-10, 4.15 in 30 starts LY; he is 2-1, 3.67 in four starts vs Oakland. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Estrada allowed three runs in five IP vs Seattle over in Japan LW; he is 1-1, 3.55 in two starts against the Angels. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1

Last two years, Angels are 22-17 vs Oakland, but lost 4-0 yesterday.

Oakland lost two of its first three games this season.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:29 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Red Sox (0-1) @ Mariners (3-0)
Eovaldi was 3-3, 3.33 in 11 starts LY, then 2-1, 1.61 in six playoff games (2 starts). He is 0-0, 2.12 in three career starts vs Seattle. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

Kikuchi allowed two runs in 4.2 IP (91 PT) in his first MLB start LW. Team in his starts: 1-0
5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1

Last 2+ years, Red Sox are 7-7 vs Seattle; they lost 12-4 last night.

Seattle won its first three games this season.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:30 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

MLB
Friday, March 29
Trend Report

Detroit Tigers
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Detroit is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Toronto is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Houston Astros
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games on the road
Houston is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
Tampa Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Houston
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Tampa Bay is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games
Colorado is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games
Colorado is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Colorado's last 19 games on the road
Colorado is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Colorado is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Colorado's last 25 games when playing Miami
Colorado is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
Colorado is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami Marlins
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Colorado
Miami is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Miami's last 25 games when playing Colorado
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado
Miami is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of St. Louis's last 13 games
St. Louis is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
St. Louis is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road
St. Louis is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Milwaukee is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 12 games
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Milwaukee is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
Milwaukee is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis

Los Angeles Angels
LA Angels is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games
LA Angels is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games
LA Angels is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Angels is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games on the road
LA Angels is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
LA Angels is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 17 of LA Angels's last 25 games when playing Oakland
LA Angels is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
LA Angels is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Angels's last 9 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland Athletics
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Oakland's last 18 games
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Oakland is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Oakland's last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Angels
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Oakland's last 25 games when playing LA Angels
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing at home against LA Angels

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Arizona's last 19 games on the road
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Dodgers
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Dodgers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
LA Dodgers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Dodgers is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games at home
LA Dodgers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
LA Dodgers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
LA Dodgers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 12 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco's last 12 games
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Francisco is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego Padres
San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Diego is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

Boston Red Sox
Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Boston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Boston's last 20 games
Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Boston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Boston's last 16 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Mariners
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games at home
Seattle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Seattle's last 16 games when playing at home against Boston
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:31 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, March 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (1 - 0) at MIAMI (0 - 1) - 7:10 PM
GERMAN MARQUEZ (R) vs. TREVOR RICHARDS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-30 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 23-17 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 93-75 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 46-40 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 67-45 (+23.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 55-37 (+21.4 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against MIAMI this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

GERMAN MARQUEZ vs. MIAMI since 1997
MARQUEZ is 0-3 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 7.91 and a WHIP of 2.123.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

TREVOR RICHARDS vs. COLORADO since 1997
RICHARDS is 1-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.833.
His team's record is 1-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (0 - 1) at MILWAUKEE (1 - 0) - 8:10 PM
JACK FLAHERTY (R) vs. FREDDY PERALTA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 103-71 (+28.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 55-35 (+18.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 22-8 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 70-38 (+31.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 76-49 (+24.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 59-42 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 467-416 (+61.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JACK FLAHERTY vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
FLAHERTY is 1-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.86 and a WHIP of 1.024.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.4 units)

FREDDY PERALTA vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
PERALTA is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 0) - 10:10 PM
DEREK HOLLAND (L) vs. JOEY LUCCHESI (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 57-106 (-36.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 59-38 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in road games after getting shut out since 1997.
SAN DIEGO is 20-38 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

DEREK HOLLAND vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
HOLLAND is 1-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 6.23 and a WHIP of 1.648.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)

JOEY LUCCHESI vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LUCCHESI is 1-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.182.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (0 - 1) at LA DODGERS (1 - 0) - 10:10 PM
ROBBIE RAY (L) vs. ROSS STRIPLING (R)
Top Trends for this game.
RAY is 23-38 (-18.3 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 22-16 (+15.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
RAY is 15-5 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 101-79 (-23.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 23-26 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 51-40 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 70-60 (-22.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against ARIZONA this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

ROBBIE RAY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
RAY is 7-4 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.179.
His team's record is 9-7 (+4.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-6. (+4.0 units)

ROSS STRIPLING vs. ARIZONA since 1997
STRIPLING is 1-2 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 5.94 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (1 - 0) at TORONTO (0 - 1) - 7:07 PM
MATT BOYD (L) vs. MATT SHOEMAKER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 339-435 (-100.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997.
DETROIT is 70-125 (-40.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 46-81 (-33.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 17-10 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
SHOEMAKER is 12-2 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
TORONTO is 71-97 (-32.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 15-38 (-21.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 (+1.4 Units) against TORONTO this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

MATT BOYD vs. TORONTO since 1997
BOYD is 0-1 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 4.30 and a WHIP of 1.296.
His team's record is 3-2 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.4 units)

MATT SHOEMAKER vs. DETROIT since 1997
SHOEMAKER is 3-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 0.83 and a WHIP of 0.827.
His team's record is 4-1 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-5. (-5.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) - 7:10 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 90-73 (+23.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 19-8 (+14.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 12-6 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 51-31 (+21.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 17-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 63-53 (+13.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 55-22 (+22.4 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 60-25 (+26.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 38-15 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 155-78 (+33.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 43-16 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.1 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLE is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 1.231.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MORTON is 3-5 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.96 and a WHIP of 1.676.
His team's record is 4-5 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-6. (-3.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA ANGELS (0 - 1) at OAKLAND (1 - 2) - 10:07 PM
MATT HARVEY (R) vs. MARCO ESTRADA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HARVEY is 1-10 (-9.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HARVEY is 24-39 (-24.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 98-68 (+33.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 36-19 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 97-66 (+30.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 60-46 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 66-41 (+28.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 64-43 (+22.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 34-22 (+18.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

MATT HARVEY vs. OAKLAND since 1997
No recent starts.

MARCO ESTRADA vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
ESTRADA is 1-3 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 5.90 and a WHIP of 1.448.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (0 - 1) at SEATTLE (3 - 0) - 10:10 PM
NATHAN EOVALDI (R) vs. YUSEI KIKUCHI (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 92-73 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 54-40 (+13.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 66-45 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 119-58 (+40.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 58-32 (+24.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 45-27 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 944-851 (-114.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
SEATTLE is 470-450 (-100.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 (+1.9 Units) against BOSTON this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

NATHAN EOVALDI vs. SEATTLE since 1997
EOVALDI is 0-0 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 2.12 and a WHIP of 1.176.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

YUSEI KIKUCHI vs. BOSTON since 1997
No recent starts.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:32 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57373
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

29th Mar 2019 | Adam Burke

We’ve got an uncharacteristically light schedule for a Friday in big leagues to consider on March 29. The season started on Thursday with a bunch of weather days built into the schedule in case Mother Nature didn’t want baseball to be played in a given city. As luck would have it, we had no postponements and actually pretty decent weather across the country to get the 2019 season underway.

We were nicely on the plus side yesterday with two pick winners and a loser on a stronger lean. The Pirates and Reds gave us a real scare with some bullpen shenanigans, but that one stayed under 8.5 and the Twins were able to prevail in a terrific pitcher’s duel over the Indians.

We got three scoreless from the Rockies and Marlins, but the second time through hurt Jose Urena and the Rockies put up six across the fourth and fifth to drive the 1st 5 under over the total of 4. Freeland faders were certainly disappointed and there were a lot of them out there.

So far, we’re 2-2, but on the plus side, as both 3% picks were winners and the losers were on lesser plays totaling just 3.81% of our funds. On the season, we’re up 2.19% with two days of plays in the books.

For those that may have missed yesterday’s article, here are the cliff notes:

Lean = to win 1%

Stronger Lean = to win 2%

Pick = to win 3%

It goes without saying, but these are correlated to my confidence level on plays. If you’re following and betting 3% (or some other consistent percentage) on all of them, that’s not really the point.

Listed numbers from BetOnline, but shop around for the best prices. Primarily just using BetOnline for accounting purposes with the tracking of results.

If you like sabermetrics and betting on baseball, this article speaks to you on a deep, personal level.

I believe a lot in information sharing. I give picks and I play the picks I play, but I don’t want anybody to lose sight of the fact that I value this as an educational and informational tool more than anything. I want you to be able to get to a point to handicap these for yourself and understand the concepts and see areas to get closing line value or get in front of line moves.

I’m breaking games down by rotation order, not chronologically like past seasons.

All good? Alrighty, let’s get it going with my thoughts for March 29, 2019:

951/952 Colorado (-152, 7) at Miami

Usually, to save time, I’ll only be writing about games with favorites below -150, even though, as I mentioned yesterday on The Bettor’s Box, you don’t want to be allergic to chalk. It’s just one of those things where I don’t want to bog readers down more than I already do.

I did want to mention this one, though. German Marquez is starting for the Rockies. I think some are going to look to fade him early in the season. He doesn’t have the telltale ERA/xFIP indicators, but he had some significant splits between the first and second halves of last season. Marquez posted a .331 wOBA against in the first half and had a 2.62 wOBA against in the second half. His pitcher slash went from 4.81/4.44/3.82 to 2.61/2.25/2.30 with 10 fewer innings in the second half. His K% jumped 10.4 percent, which is enormous, and his BB% dropped 2.7 percent.

I do want to point out that Marquez’s average exit velocity against in the second half was 89.6 mph. That was the eighth highest out of 120 pitchers with at least 150 batted ball events. There was a little bit of good fortune for him on those batted balls after the All-Star Game.

I think the true talent level for Marquez lies somewhere in between. I’m not going to fade him today at Marlins Park and against this lineup. So far, the market hasn’t either, but that could always change.

I don’t have any plays on this game as of yet, but just wanted to drop those notes about Marquez. I did notice at BetOnline that the total moved down from 7.5 to 7 at time of writing, but the 1st 5 line was still 4 and -125. That was the total for yesterday’s game, but the full-game line was 7.5.

I haven’t pulled the trigger and it’ll likely be adjusted by the time this goes live, but be sure to keep an eye on things like that.

PASS

953/954 St. Louis (-105, 8.5) at Milwaukee

One of my Cy Young opinions, Jack Flaherty, kicks off his 2019 season against Freddy Peralta and the Brewers. Milwaukee did what Milwaukee does best and won a one-run game yesterday. The patchwork bullpen is going to rely heavily on Josh Hader, who threw two innings in that victory.

Josh Hader is most likely unavailable today. That changes everything for this Milwaukee bullpen without Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress. I don’t know if the Brewers are trying to create leverage with Craig Kimbrel, but when Knebel announces that he’s getting Tommy John today, that’s a move that Milwaukee needs to make.

Hader is such a dynamic weapon that his status is going to define some bets for me this season against the Brewers if they don’t deepen this bullpen in other ways. Hader only worked five back-to-backs last year in the regular season and three of them were in August when the playoff push was starting. He’s not going to be overworked in April. It just won’t happen. I’d be stunned if Craig Counsell even gave him a thought today, unless he faced one batter or something. Even still, getting hot and coming into the game is additional strain with a bullpen that is already on the thinner side.

Anyway, back to Flaherty. What a stud. He finished out last season with a 3.34/3.86/3.58 pitcher slash and had an elite second half. Walks and dingers were a mild problem, but I can overlook those with anybody able to post a strikeout rate near 30 percent. Flaherty was at 29.6 percent in the K% department. Opposing batters only hit .198 with a .257 BABIP. Outside of the 15.2 percent HR/FB%, Flaherty didn’t allow a lot of hard contact.

In fact, as Flaherty was dominating in the second half, his average exit velocity against went down to 86.8 mph, which ranked 45th out of 120 pitchers with at least 150 batted ball events. He struck out 95 in 76 innings.

What I really like about Flaherty is that his home run problems were against same-side hitters. Left-handed hitters only hit seven of the 20 homers that he allowed in 310 plate appearances. He faced 305 righties and allowed 13 home runs. If you can stay out of danger zones against lefties, you can thrive as a right-handed pitcher. Lefties only had a .275 wOBA against him, which was only that high because of an elevated walk rate.

I’m happy to see Freddy Peralta in the Brewers rotation. He has more upside than guys like Junior Guerra and Chase Anderson. Peralta turned in a 4.25/3.72/4.33 pitcher slash in his 78.1 innings of work. He struck out 96, which is very good, but walked 40, which is not so good. A 12.5 percent BB% is pretty hard to swallow and he did have elevated walk rates in the minor leagues, so it doesn’t appear to be an anomaly. BB% is one of the stats that stabilizes very quickly from a sample size standpoint, so we can trust that walks will remain a problem.

One of the concerns with Peralta is that he carries high walk rates while predominantly throwing fastballs. He threw a fastball 77.6 percent of the time last season. It isn’t a fastball with elite velocity either, but it is a really good fastball. Opposing hitters only batted .186 with a .330 SLG against his fastball, which is phenomenal for a pitch like that. His curveball was also solid with a .121 average against and a .310 SLG.

Peralta’s 68.5 percent LOB% suggests some positive regression and so do these numbers against his two pitch types. That is one of the problems for Peralta, though. There is very little depth to the arsenal. He might be a dominant reliever with an extra tick on the fastball and the hammer, but it can make for a tough life as a starter to be so limited with pitch usage.

The Cardinals ranked ninth last year in batting runs above average against fastballs. They were well behind the eighth team (Cubs) and 71 runs behind the top team (Yankees). Sliders crippled the Cardinals, as they ranked 19th against that pitch. Peralta doesn’t throw one.

I’ve gone back and forth on whether or not I want to use the 1st 5 here because I like Flaherty as much as I do or if I want to go with the full game because Hader’s status matters so much to this bullpen. Because the Cardinals didn’t use primary relievers Dakota Hudson, Andrew Miller, or Jordan Hicks in yesterday’s loss, I think that gives St. Louis a bit of an advantage in the late innings in case the Peralta vs. Flaherty matchup goes awry. For that reason, we’ll be on the full game here.

Pick: St. Louis – 3.15% to win 3%

955/956 San Francisco at San Diego (-153, 7.5)

A southpaw showdown on the West Coast features Derek Holland and the Giants against Joey Lucchesi and the Padres. I’m a little bit surprised that we haven’t seen much Lucchesi money hit the board. He posted a 4.08 ERA with a 3.45 xFIP. His 20.4 percent HR/FB% is almost assuredly going to improve this season. When you consider that he had a 26.5 percent K% and a 7.9 percent BB%, his K/BB peripherals were quite good.

He finished the season with a whimper, as he allowed a .588 SLG and a .377 wOBA in the month of September, which I attribute to fatigue in his first season throwing significant MLB innings. I’m thinking he’ll be a popular guy to back, but he’s not here in this spot so far.

I mostly wanted to mention that, as I don’t have many thoughts otherwise on the game. I think Holland is a little bit underrated after posting a 2.86 ERA with a 3.78 FIP over his final 69.1 innings of last season, but he’s on the road and this Padres lineup has the chance to be a lot better.

PASS

959/960 Detroit at Toronto (-129, 8.5)

Matt Boyd and the Tigers take on Matt Shoemaker and the Blue Jays up at Rogers Centre in this AL Central vs. AL East affair. I’m going to go ahead and put the cart about five miles in front of the horse. This total is a half-run too low at least. The juice is -115 on the over 8.5, so it may go up to -120 or -125, maybe even touch 9, but this total is too low.

Rogers Centre allowed the third-highest wOBA on fly balls and line drives last year at .589. Only Coors Field and Yankee Stadium were higher. Last season, 71 percent of batted balls put in play off of Matt Boyd were fly balls or line drives. Additionally, because he’s not a hard-thrower, 74.8 percent of them were either pulled or hit to the middle of the field.

Away from Comerica Park, Boyd allowed a .250/.324/.462 pitcher slash with a .338 wOBA. He had a 5.89 ERA, which was a tad on the high side relative to his 5.14 FIP and 4.71 xFIP, but he uses the green space at Comerica Park to his advantage and that is not an advantage that he has here in this park at all.

The Blue Jays were seventh in FB% last season and third in Pull%. They had the seventh-highest HR/FB% at home. This is a really bad spot for Boyd in those areas.

Matt Shoemaker is something of an unknown for the Blue Jays. He only worked 77.2 innings in 2017 and just 31 innings in 2018. He didn’t post particularly strong numbers overall. Shoemaker is a pretty neutral ground ball/fly ball guy, so maybe Rogers Centre won’t hurt him too bad, but also, he’s only pitched for the Angels, so he’s had the safety net of that pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Therefore, it is hardly surprising to see that Shoemaker has a 3.19 ERA in 267.2 home innings and a 4.64 ERA in 277.1 road innings. His numbers are elevated across the board away from home. Rogers Centre is his new home, but it is far from a pitcher’s park.

That’s why I’m not backing the Blue Jays here. What I am backing, however, is the over. I know these two teams did absolutely nothing yesterday on offense, which is maybe why the total is a tad depressed, but this should be 9 flat in my opinion and it’s 8.5 and -115. That’s too low. Not to mention, neither bullpen is very good.

PICK: Over 8 (-116) – 3.48% to win 3%

961/962 Houston (-128, 7) at Tampa Bay

Former Astro Charlie Morton makes his Tampa Bay debut against his old teammates. It will be Gerrit Cole for the Astros, who is a legitimate Cy Young Award contender for this season. The Astros are a nice-sized favorite here once again after starting the year 1-0 by delivering some of that regression we expected for Blake Snell.

Cole is an elite weapon. We’re not going to see him at this price very often. Cole posted a 2.88 ERA with a 2.70 FIP and a 3.04 xFIP in his 200.1 innings of work. The Astros really maximized his arsenal and he posted a career-best 34.5 percent K%. He also made big gains in the HR department. You have to think that another offseason studying with the Astros and another offseason of Houston data to further his arsenal has to help.

This isn’t the best matchup for Tampa because Cole is a strikeout artist but also because of a batted ball change last season. Cole owns a career 45.5 percent GB%, but it was much higher last year before he dropped to 36 percent. The Astros really prioritize high spin rate fastballs up in the zone. As a result, Cole induced more fly balls, which go for hits less often than ground balls. Tampa has gone anti-launch angle revolution and has been hitting more ground balls. That may not be in the cards today given Cole’s pitch selection and location.

Morton has really good stuff. You have to in order to post 6 fWAR over the last two seasons with just 313.2 innings of work. He’s a strikeout artist as well, but he is a guy that can have some problems with walks. He is also a high ground ball guy, which is the reason why some of his HR/FB% marks have been a little bit higher.

I also think Morton is really tough to catch, so this will be an interesting dynamic for the Rays. He’s thrown 29 wild pitches over the last two years and has all those strikeouts and walks because his pitches move a lot. This will be interesting for Mike Zunino. Zunino is regarded as a pretty decent pitch framer and defender, so there’s that, but this will be a learning experience for him. I’m sure he caught a lot of bullpens and whatnot in Spring Training, but the lights are a lot brighter now. We’ll have to follow along with that dynamic as the season goes along.

One thing that is always interesting about games like this is how the former team and former teammate fare. Houston knows Morton and Morton knows Houston. Who has the advantage?

For that reason, even though this looks to be a terrific matchup for Cole, I’m going to relax this to a 1% play. I want a piece of this game because Gerrit Cole at -127 isn’t coming around often. I feel like I’d be missing an opportunity if I didn’t play it to some degree. But, I’m going to lessen the exposure because Morton knows this personnel and also because I really love Tampa’s bullpen.

LEAN: Houston (-128) – 1.28% to win 1%

963/964 LA Angels (-115, 8.5) at Oakland

Is this the chance to test out my Marco Estrada theories? The Angels and A’s get together with Oakland a home dog in this matchup between Matt Harvey and Marco Estrada. Much like yesterday, Mike Fiers already had a Major League start under his belt for 2019. It wasn’t a good one, but he had gotten the chance to settle in, travel with the boys, and get back into the life. He pitched extremely well.

Will Estrada have the same good fortune? In my Oakland A’s season betting tips and players to watch article, I talked about Estrada and why I’m tentatively buying some stock. I also elaborated in my picks and tips piece for March 21 with these thoughts:

For some things to file away on Estrada, Rogers Centre was the third-highest venue in wOBA, weighted on-base average, on fly balls and line drives. Only Coors Field and Yankee Stadium were higher, which makes a ton of sense. Fourteen of Estrada’s 28 starts were in Toronto. He had two starts at Yankee Stadium, which went poorly, and one start at Fenway Park, which also went poorly. Fenway ranked fifth in wOBA on fly balls and line drives.

Therefore, I think Estrada could be a guy with some extremely hidden value when pitching at home or in the pitcher-friendly AL West parks.

Estrada was bordering on serviceable in his start at Tokyo Dome with three runs allowed over five innings. He only struck out one batter, which is concerning, but he’s going to be a low-strikeout guy all season. At least he didn’t walk any.

Anyway, the overriding theme here is that I think Estrada will have value at home and in good pitcher’s parks. Is today one of those days?

Well, in order to figure that out, we have to handicap Matt Harvey. Harvey posted a 4.94/4.57/4.21 pitcher slash across 155 innings last season. He was significantly better once he got out of a bad situation with the Mets, but that still meant a 4.50 ERA, a 4.33 FIP, and a 4.14 xFIP in 128 innings with the Reds. Now he’s over in the AL.

Home runs have been a problem for The Dark Knight. He allowed 27 in 155 innings last season and 21 in 92.2 innings in 2017. Sheryl Ring at RotoGraphs wrote about how we could very well see a new and improved Harvey this season that may be able to cut down on those home runs. The arsenal changes and the increased velocity did help Harvey to almost a strikeout per inning in the second half last year.

Even though there are some reasons to be optimistic about Harvey, I did a lot of preseason research and feel like I found a betting angle for Estrada. I want to see that through. I love the Oakland bullpen.

I am going to tread lightly here, though. This won’t be a full 3% play. It’s not like I have to run to get the value I perceive on Estrada. I’ll be on my own private island with that one for a while. If nothing else, I’d be surprised if Harvey outshines Estrada that much and I could just end up with Oakland’s bullpen against Anaheim’s at a plus price and I’m content with that. If the ish hits the fan and Estrada gets rocked, it is what it is. I don’t love the Angels lineup and think that this is a good angle.

This is one of today’s substantial line movers, as Estrada and the A’s opened a -125 favorite at Bookmaker and we’ve seen a flipped favorite scenario to fade Estrada. I’m not afraid to go against the market. We’ll probably see a little Estrada buyback now, but this line could go a little higher. It’ll be listed at its current price, but I understand if you want to wait and see if you can get a little more.

Lean: Oakland – 1% to win 1.05%

965/966 Boston (-149, 8) at Seattle

Chris Sale looked bad yesterday, eh? Man, that’s a scary sign for the Red Sox. Alex Cora put a little spin on it, but I watched it on the plane and it wasn’t a good look. Hopefully there’s nothing going on there.

Nate Eovaldi goes today for the visitors and Yusei Kikuchi will make his T-Mobile Park (it’s not Safeco anymore!) debut for the Mariners. After an emotional debut in his native Japan, it will be interesting to see how Kikuchi fares in a much different type of environment. I’m not sure. I think this price looks a little bit high on the surface, especially with Kikuchi being an unfamiliar lefty, but there won’t be a play on this game. I’m still gathering info with Kikuchi. There will come a time to play him.

PASS

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 12:41 pm
Share: