PUNTER nba playoffs 12-11 ..4-0 run
NBA RECORD regular season 62-55 (+4.31 UNITS)
BOTH sides have held serve on their home court so far this series and the Celtics will look to keep that going ahead of Game 5 at the Garden.
Boston are a perfect 9-0 at home so far this post-season and it’s clear that they’re a very different team when playing in front of this raucous crowd.
The question here is whether they can halt this Cleveland offence that certainly found its way playing back on their hardwood.
As great as LeBron James has been throughout this series, and the playoffs entirely, the Cavs hopes rest firmly on the shoulders of his support cast.
One thing we do know is that Boston have no answer for James’s offence and the expectation will again be on him to set the tone early in this one.
Cleveland’s wins have come off the back of dominant first quarter efforts that have put them in position to play from in front. In fact, aside from those Game 1 cobwebs, Cleveland has won the last three straight first quarters by an average of 11.6 points.
While it seems an obvious thing to say the outcome of the first quarter is far more important to Cleveland than it is to Boston. We know the Celtics can work their way out of a hole should it pan out that way, but we are yet to see that same level of resilience on the road from the Cleveland team.
If the Cavs backcourt can hit a coupe early shots and James can find a way to get Kevin Love involved early on offence than the road team will go a long way to dictating the outcome of this series.
We’re going to continue riding the Cavs early in the head-to-head first quarter market given what we’ve seen from them in the past few games coming out the gates.
Cleveland are +4.2 points in the opening period so far this series and we’ll back that to continue here.
That being said, we won’t be backing against the home side on their home court – not until someone shows they can knock them off on their hardwood, and not until we see consistency from Cleveland’s shooters away from The Q.
The Cavs are 3-4 on the road so far this postseason and two of those wins came against a Toronto team that simply doesn’t know how to compete with LeBron.
The home side know they did just as much to lost Game 4 on their own as Cleveland did in winning it and they’ll feel a renewed sense of confidence returning to the TD Garden ahead of Game 5.
Boston have a +5.9 point differential at home throughout the season and we know that defensively they’ll close out the shooters far better than they did in the early stages of Game 4.
Offensively, they spurned far too many easy layups and dunks that ultimately cost them and that’s something we don’t expect to see again here. If they steady the storm early and remain within one or two possession at the end of the first we’ll happily side with Boston to close it out.
It seems somewhat counter productive taking these two bets but given we’re getting even money on the Celtics we’ll happily take them while surrendering the first quarter.
It seems silly to bet on LeBron going Under any total in any category right now but trust us when we say there is value here.
James has gone Over this number just once in his last seven games, and twice in his last 10. Both those times came when he recorded a triple-double.
The main reason for this bet however is what we saw from James on the defensive end in Game 4.
It seems Tyronn Lue is happy for his superstar to guard either Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum on the perimeter. He spent almost the entire first-half glued to Brown in the corner, drastically limiting his rebounding opportunities.
It was therefore no surprise to see him finish with five boards in that one and we feel this total is very generous given his defensive responsibilities now that Tristan Thompson is back in the line up.
With Thompson and Love the primary rebounders we should expect James to be the outlet pass for his big men rather than the one crashing the boards on the defensive glass.
Tip: LeBron James u/8.5 rebounds @ $1.82 (Sportsbet) (1.5 units)
PUNTER nhl poffs 26-21
NHL RECORD: regular season 89-52 (+22.76 UNITS)
IT’S a huge Game 7 in Tampa Bay and we look to cash in once more with our NHL plays.
Here’s our best bet for the action ahead:
Washington Capitals @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Tip: Tampa Bay Lightning @ $1.72 (Unibet) (2 units)
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