Free Picks for Tuesday, October 31st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
BOWLING GREEN at KENT STATE
PLAY: UNDER 50.5
I’m expecting a battle of ground games tonight as Bowling Green takes on Kent State in a thoroughly meaningless MAC game. Both the Falcons and Golden Flashes have what I’ll diplomatically call uncertain quarterback situations. Neither team has shown much in the way of rushing defense. So one would think the game plans on each side will be to play it close to the vest on offense and take as few chances as possible.
In addition, Bowling Green has a couple of offensive line injuries, therefore I would imagine that will give the mediocre Golden Flashes defensive interior a chance to not got eaten alive for a change.
One would think this will be a fairly fast moving game with both teams simply trying to get to the final quarter with a chance to pick up a win. I think it’s logical to offer that taking as much gamble out of the game plans as possible is the best way to do that.
Barring turnovers that pave the way to short fields and easy scores, I just can’t see either of these offenses putting big points on the board. That makes the Under the sensible choice tonight.
Larry Ness
Thunder vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks +1½
The 3-3 OKC Thunder are in Milwaukee to take on the 4-2 Bucks and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side.
This is the end of a three-game road trip for the Thunder, which always sets up as a natural “letdown” spot teams (in every sport.) Besides, Oklahoma City comes in off a satisfying 101-69 win over the Bulls on Saturday.
The Bucks come in on top form as well, they’ve won three of their last four, most recently a 117-106 victory at Atlanta on Sunday.
So far OKC is ranked 11th in scoring with an average of 106 PPG, while ranked fifth in scoring defense in conceding 96.5. Carmelo Anthony leads the nightly charge with 23.8 PPG, while Russell Westbrook has averaged 20.8 points, 9.8 boards and 12.2 assists per game. Paul George adds 19.5 points and 2.67 steals per game.
The Bucks are ranked 14th in scoring with 105.5 PPG, while ranked 15th in scoring defense in conceding 103.7. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 33 points, 11 rebounds and five assists to lead the team in its most recent win.
Milwaukee is also getting plenty of production from Malcolm Brogdon, who adds 15.8 points, while Khris Middleton chips in 17.2 points, plus 5.7 boards.
I’ll point out that as well that Oklahoma City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and only 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 75 points in its last game, while Milwaukee is interestingly 22-17 ATS in its last 39 against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest.
I think OKC comes in flat-footed at the end of its road trip and I believe the opportunisitc home side will take advantage. Consider the Bucks in this matchup.
Ben Burns
Winnipeg at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -135
The Jets won when these teams faced each other at Winnipeg, on 10/20. With this evening's rematch being played south of the border, where the the Wild have long been much better, Minnesota figures to have the advantage. The Wild won both meetings here last season, a 4-3 win in October and a 3-1 victory in November. They outshot the Jets by 31-17 and 26-16 margins in those games. In each case, they were laying roughly -165 against the money-line. Tonight's price is far more reasonable and I feel that's providing fair value. Consider revenge-minded Minnesota.
Big Al
Arizona vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit -170
It took the Coyotes 12 games to finally notch their first victory of the season, a 4-3 overtime win in Philadelphia. At this rate, they will win roughly seven games this season. Make no mistake about it, the Coyotes are a bad team -- very bad in fact. And the only thing worse than a bad team is a bad team with some key injuries. And you could argue that no injury in hockey is more damaging than that of a #1 goalie. Antti Raanta is out indefinitely with a lower body injury and in his absence the Coyotes have tried three different options between the pipes (Adlin Hill, Louis Domingue, and Scott Wedgewood). They've also recently called Hunter Miska up from the Minors to be a fourth option if needed. After winning that first game last night, the Coyotes have to travel to Detroit to play the Red Wings on zero days rest. As bad as the Coyotes have been this season, the Wings have only been slightly better lately, but that's probably good enough for them to win their second game in their new home arena (Little Caesars Arena has not been that friendly to them so far). The Coyotes are 18-44-6 in the last 68 meetings.
Jim Feist
Suns at Nets
Pick: Over
The Phoenix Suns make the long trip East to play the Nets in Brooklyn. Always tougher on the West coast teams having to travel East. Especially for a team like Phoenix that is only 2-4 on the season and 0-2 on the road. Meanwhile, the Nets are 3-4 on the season and 3-1 at home. Suns coach Earl Watson didn't even make it four games into the season before being fired. Interim coach Jay Triano faced the loss guard Eric Bledsoe who just left the team. The Suns give up a ton of points and have gone OVER in five of their last seven road games and the OVER is 9-4 their last 13 overall. Should be lots of points in this contest. The total is high, but not high enough.
Joey Juice
The Kent State Golden Flashes are at home tonight vs. the Bowling Green Falcons, who are coming off a tough road loss to Northern Illinois 48-17, while the Golden Flashes were absolutely man-handled by Ohio 48-3 last time out.
Last season when these 2 teams met, Bowling Green crushed Kent State at home.
A look inside the numbers shows a distinct advantage for Bowling Green in this game. The Bowling Green Falcons always take care of business on the road against losing teams, they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team with a losing home record.
In fact, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams.
The Kent State Golden Flashes are terrible at home, they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Final Facts:
Kent State has the absolute worst offense in the Country. They average only 10 points per game (9 points in conference play), which ranks them 130th.
Bowling Green can actually score the ball, they are averaging 26.7 points in their four conference games thus far, and they were able to score 30 points against first-place Ohio earlier this month.
Bowling Green is your free winner.
3* BOWLING GREEN
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Bowling Green Falcons.
It's that time of the year! MAC-tion on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, you know the deal.
Tonight we have two of the bottom feeders, as 1-7 Bowling Green visits 2-6 Kent State, and someone has to win!
My money will go out on the visiting Falcons who have won each of the past 4 series meetings, and have covered in 3 of those 4 victories. Not only that, but the road team is 4-1 against the spread the last 5 series meetings.
Bowling Green quarterback Jarret Doege has missed the last 3 games with a back injury, but is expected to be back for this MAC game tonight. If he cannot go, Loy and Morgan are well-versed on taking the snaps for the Falcons, and they do know how to put the pigskin in the end-zone, something the Golden Flashes have not done a lot of this season.
Bowling Green is averaging almost 27 points per game in conference action, while Kent State comes in with just 9 points per game averaged in their conference tilts.
Based on series trends, go with BG as the small road favorite to make it 5-0 straight up, and 4-1 against the spread versus Kent.
3* BOWLING GREEN
Jack Brayman
Last night I nailed the Over in the Golden Knights-Islanders hockey game, and tonight I am in the NBA looking for the same result between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks.
What we have tonight is a clash of early-season candidates for MVP.
Russell Westbrook and the Thunder against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks at the Bradley Center.
And it'll be quite a show.
Antetokounmpo - the Greek Freak - has dominated through Milwaukee's first six games this season, averaging a league-leading 34.7 points with 10.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. He's stormed the highlight reel nightly, and has some critics thrusting him into "best player in the league chat."
Westbrook, the reigning MVP, is in after a big game, as he registered his third triple-double of the season - scoring 12 points, grabbing 13 rebounds and dishing 13 assists - during a 101-69 demolition of the Bulls on Saturday in Chicago.
The Bucks (4-2) and Thunder (3-3) have been competitive in past years, including last season, when they split their series. Look for a shootout tonight, with the MVP candidates leading the charge.
3* Thunder/Bucks Over
Tommy Brunson
Houston and Los Angeles tonight, and I have your Game 6 side winner.
Maybe there really is something to the slickness of the baseballs they are using in this year's World Series, as the runs have really started to add up through the first five games contested.
Sunday was one for the record-books, as the Dodgers and Astros combined for 25 runs in 10 innings of pure entertainment as the Over was easy money. For the record, the Over/Under is 2-2-1 in this year's series.
Let's play the Over again here on Tuesday when Justin Verlander and Rich Hill take the "slick" pearl to the mound. This is a Game Two pitching rematch, a game that Houston won 7-6 in 11 innings of play.
Right now both teams bullpens are gassed, and right now the hitters have seen exactly what each reliever has in their repertoire. The advantage rests with the hitters here on Tuesday.
Game Six Over the total.
4* HOUSTON-L.A.DODGERS OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Tuesday is going to be the Under in Game 6 of the World Series, as the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers resume play at Dodger Stadium.
Let's start with Verlander, who has been lights out since arriving to Houston, from Motown. The veteran right-hander will pitch for his first-ever World Series title in Game 6, and I think he will be spot on.
Verlander, who's 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA in five games (four starts) this postseason, allowed three runs on two home runs in six innings in Game 2. He's 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) since joining Houston.
On the other hand, we have Hill, who allowed just one run on three hits, walking three and striking out seven over four innings in Game 2. Overall this postseason, he's posted a 2.77 ERA (four earned runs in 13 innings), with seven walks and 19 strikeouts.
Look for a pitchers' duel in this one.
4* Astros/Dodgers Under
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the New York Rangers Puck Line over the Vegas Golden Knights.
So I'm doing a sports-betting radio show last night, and as we're talking, I see Golden Knights goalie Oscar Dansk go down. Couldn't believe it. And now Vegas, fresh into its inaugural season, is down to its fourth string goalie.
I made the joke on the air that sports books should put a prop bet up asking which team will have more of: Golden Knights goalies or Cleveland Browns quarterbacks?
It's not pretty right now for the Golden Knights, as they're playing on the East coast for the first time, and coming off just their second loss of the season. They're down to goalie four, and now they enter a venue that can be extremely overwhelming: Madison Square Garden.
On the second of back-to-back nights, after getting hammered by the New York Islanders, 6-3, and looking lackluster once the game got out of hand, I think Vegas struggles against a desperate Rangers team that will take advantage of the vulnerable Golden Knights.
2* RANGERS -1.5
Brandon Lee
Astros vs. Dodgers
Play: Astros +113
This has been an entertaining World Series, but I don't see it going to a Game 7, as I have the Astros winning Game 6 in LA tonight. The thing that made the Dodgers so great was their bullpen, but it's been used and abused in this series. I see that as a big time problem here with Rich Hill on the mound. Hill has pitched great, but his longest start in the postseason is 5 innings. On the other side of this you have a true gamer in Justin Verlander, who was even better than the numbers in Game 2. He allowed 3 runs in 6 innings, but only allowed 2 hits, which both just so happened to be homers. I look for Verlander to deliver a gem and Houston's offense to do just enough to pull out the victory.
John Martin
Phoenix at Brooklyn
Play: Phoenix +5
The Phoenix Suns have been a completely different team since firing Earl Watson and sending Eric Bledsoe home. They have come together as a team while going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They beat the Kings 117-115 and the Jazz 97-88 at home, while only losing 107-114 in Portland as 12-point dogs. Now they are catching 5 points on the road to the Brooklyn Nets, a team that is on their level. The Nets have lost by 21 in New York and by 13 at home to the Nuggets in their last two games. They have injury issues right now with Jeremy Lin and Quincy Lacy out, and DeMarre Carroll questionable. I'll ride the hot hand here in Phoenix and fade the cold one in Brooklyn.
Jimmy Boyd
Phoenix at Brooklyn
Play: Brooklyn -4
I like the value here with Brooklyn as a short home favorite against the Suns on Tuesday. The Nets come in off a couple of ugly losses to the Knicks and Nuggets, but I think those were a result of the letdown that came from their big win at home over the Cavaliers. I expect a much better effort here than the last two and the Suns are a team they can certainly get right against.
Phoenix has played better since the parted ways with Earl Watson, but most teams play well for a short stretch after a coaching change. The two wins under interim head coach Jay Triano both came at home. They lost at Portland by 7 to start out a 5-game road trip and I think they come out flat here, as the Nets aren't a team you get pumped up to play.
Suns are also a great fade when they are rested, as they are just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 when playing with 2 days of rest. They are also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games where they come in off a loss but covered as an underdog.