Free Picks for Wednesday, October 25th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIMBERWOLVES AT PISTONS
PLAY: TIMBERWOLVES -1.5
Here’s an early opportunity for us to find out what this Minnesota team is made of. The Wolves were absolutely horrible on Tuesday in a lopsided home loss to the Pacers. Jimmy Butler missed the game with a respiratory issue and he might be out again tonight. But this was a very flat performance by Minnesota as the team bounced badly off the thrilling win at Oklahoma City.
Timberwolves head coach Tom Thibodeau wasn’t very happy after the game for obvious reasons. He basically said the team can’t expect to just show up and win, and that about says it all.
So now we get to see what this team is all about. Tonight’s game is a spot where good teams come out flying and issue a statement that what happened the last time out was a fluke. On paper, even minus Butler, the Pistons are a team Minnesota is supposed to handle. If the Wolves are legit, they’ll use the embarrassing home loss to Indiana as motivation for a full game effort tonight. If the team comes out sulking off the Tuesday night stinker, it’s an indication that Minnesota might not be ready for prime time just yet.
I’m of the opinion that this is a good NBA team. Not a championship caliber squad, but a rising Minnesota squad that takes care of business against teams with less talent than they have. With or without Butler, I believe the Timberwolves are the way to play tonight.
Mike Lundin
Nuggets vs. Hornets
Play: Nuggets -125
Two teams looking to bounce back from defeats will clash at Spectrum Center, Charlotte Wednesday night when the Hornets host the Nuggets.
Denver fell 109-104 as a 5-point home favorite against Washington on Monday while the Hornets took a 103-94 beating as a 7-point dog at Milwaukee. Worth noting that the Nuggets are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss while the Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss, and even though those are trends carrying over from last season I think they're worth taking into consideration.
The Hornets are banged up, and Dwight Howard missed all nine of his free throws against the Bucks. His poor shooting from the charity stripe could very well become the deciding factor here, in what's expected to be a close game decided down the stretch.
Scott Spreitzer
Wizards vs. Lakers
Play: Wizards -6
All the attention given to Lonzo Ball is going to make him a target for veteran stars. John Wall will likely play with the team's best interests in mind, but you can bet he also wants to show the young buck a thing or two. We've seen current and former players talking about this matchup and there is a desire to make Ball look bad...or at least like a rookie receiving too much hype. As far as the game matchup itself, the Lakers are playing no defense right now. They're near the bottom of the league in every important defensive category and their only win was a 132-130 victory over hapless Phoenix. Wall and Bradley Beal will look to take advantage with an offense averaging 112 ppg. I don't believe the Lakers will be able to keep up and play inside the number after four of five starters failed to reach double figures in scoring last time out. Ball, Brandon Ingram, Larry Nance, Jr., and Brook Lopez combined to make just 11 FGs against New Orleans on 36 attempts. The four key Lakers also made just 1 of 9 3-pointers. There will be growing pains for the young Lakers and we expect more tonight. Washington has covered six of their last seven at the Lakers and we're recommending a play on the Wizards minus the points on Wednesday.
Larry Ness
Jazz vs. Suns
Play:Suns +6
Utah comes in gassed after last night’s 102-84 loss at the Clippers, while Phoenix enters motivated after picking up its first win of the season in a 117-115 victory at home over Sacramento.
Utah has won seven straight in the series, but the situation favors the home side in my opinion.
The Jazz so far average just 99.7 PPG, while allowing 94.3. The Suns average 102.8 PPG and in the early going anyways are the worst defensive club in the league in conceding a whopping 125.3 PPG.
After a tough start to the year, Phoenix looked a lot better against the Kings though. Devin Booker had 22 points in the win as he looks to step up and fill the leadership void left by Eric Bledsoe.
I’ll point out that Utah is interestingly just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 against the Pacific division, while Phoenix is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after allowing 115 points or more in its previous contest.
The Suns depth took a hit when Bledsoe decided to quit the team, but Phoenix is still running on adrenaline because of the recent off court turmoil and I think it will continue to ride that energy to another competitive affair this evening.
Consider grabbing the points in this one.
Scott Rickenbach
Rockets vs. 76ers
Play: Rockets -3
Houston off of a frustrating home loss where they gave up a huge game-ending run to Memphis. The Rockets will be in a foul mood here and they also catch the 76'ers off of their first win of the season so the set-up here is ideal. Houston off first loss of season and Philadelphia off first win of season. Rockets a strong team and Philly, though improved, is still a rebuilding team that is trying to "Trust the Process" as has been their mantra in recent seasons. The Sixers have had 41 turnovers the last two games (opponents only totaled 27) and this is not a good sign for Philly. The 76'ers are 8-71 SU in their last 79 games against teams with a winning record. With the Rockets laying a very small number here I like my chances as they are 38-7 in their last 45 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game.
Ben Burns
Astros vs. Dodgers
Play: Astros +1½
I've been releasing "premium" plays on nearly every baseball game for some time now. If you've followed along, then you know that its gone pretty well. I've nailed 10 of my last 11 MLB plays overall. My "top rated" baseball plays are now 27-5 ($19,740) the past 32 and 46-14 ($25,250) the past 60. I'm not releasing a "premium" play on Game 2 though. I feel that the O/U line, down from 7.5 to 7 at most shops as of this writing, is right where it should be. I also see the game being too close to call. Hill's got a 1.69 ERA and 0.875 WHIP his last three starts, all Dodger victories. Verlander's arguably been even better. He's 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA his last three. Both starters have enjoyed previous success against today's opponent, too.
The one spot where I see some value, even at the steep price, is on the run-line. Five of Hill's six career starts vs. Houston have been decided by a single run - and the other was by only two runs. I see this one being close the entire way, too. Consider laying the extra juice to get an extra +1.5 runs with Verlander and the visitors.
Brandon Shively
Indiana vs. Oklahoma City
Pick: Oklahoma City -14
The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a really tough loss to the Timberwolves. Indiana just thumped Minnesota last night. Jimmy Butler didn't play in that game though, and it was a clear letdown spot for the TWolves off that win over OKC. The Thunder should play with plenty of emotion here as Paul George plays against his old team and they look to bounce back. This looks like a blowout spot to me. I'll lay the points with the Thunder.
Bruce Marshall
Pacers at Thunder
Pick: Pacers
No chance Ok City overlooks Indy after losing twice to the Pacers last season. And after back-to-back losses, the Thunder wouldn't overlook Abilene Christian. But the sorts of games that might not trouble Ok City from December onward are proving a handful in late October, and Indiana's offense, led by Victor Oladipo, was in high gear last night in the win at Minnesota.
Jim Feist
Wizards at Lakers
Pick: Over
The Washington Wizards are a perfect 3-0 S/U to start the season. They play at an LA Lakers team that is 1-2 both S/U and ATS this season. John Wall is leading the team with 24.3 ppg and 10 assists per game. The offense is ranked 7th in scoring (114.7 ppg) and 5th in free throw percentage (84.2). The Lakers really haven't been competitive yet, losing by 11, nine and eight points. Jordan Clarkson leads the team in scoring with 19.7 ppg. Rookie Lonzo Ball leads in assists (8.7) and rebounds (9.3). The Wizards have gone OVER in eight of their last 11 games while the Lakers are 5-1 O/U in their last six at home against a winning team. These teams have gone over in 11 of the last 14 meetings in LA. I look for that to continue here on Wednesday.
The Gold Sheet
Wizards vs. Lakers
Play: Wizards -6.5
This looks a potentially disturbing matchup for the Lake Show, with word from Wizards camp that John Wall has his sights set on teaching rookie Lonzo Ball a thing or two tonight. Wall scored 34 and 33, respectively, vs. Lakers in a pair of Wiz wins last season, and no indicator LA about to do any better job slowing him tonight.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Brooklyn
Pick: Cleveland -7
There is a huge gap between the top tier of the NBA and the bottom, and I don't think the this line shows that. LeBron James is a unique and talented player that can play any position, and he was inserted as the point guard in last night's game, that saw him score 34 points and hand out 13 assists. The Cavaliers' offense thrived, but the defense was awful and I'm sure they heard about it, so I expect a more concerted effort on that end tonight. Brooklyn plays no defense at all, allowing 122.5 points per game to start the season, and if they get into a game of trying to trade baskets with the offense of the Cavaliers, they are not going to stay in the game very long. Cleveland looks good with LeBron at the point and the offense is just too much for Brooklyn. Lay the points on Cleveland.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston -101 over L.A. DODGERS
We wouldn’t exactly call Game 1 of the World Series a surprise. The home team, the best team in baseball by wins over the entirety of the season–parlayed an excellent performance by their Hall of Fame starting pitcher into a win over a gutty performance by the opposing team’s 1-A ace. There were lots of strikeouts, and the runs in the game were scored off homers in a season chock full of strikeouts and dingers. It was a taut, exciting game but hardly qualified as unexpected in terms of outcomes. Tonight night be different.
Tonight we have to wrestle with two conflicting expectations. First, there are the Dodgers, who look so strong coming off their previous playoff wins and last night’s victory and are possessed of both powerful lineup and dominant bullpen. As the home team, they are likely projected to win any possible game at home, no matter how powerful their opposition might be. They are a great blue juggernaut rolling over their competition.
On the other hand, we have Justin Verlander’s screaming fastball. Unlike any other pitcher since Curt Schilling, Verlander embodies the gut-it-out playoff ace narrative, and for excellent reason. With his history of being able to step up his performance late in games or at the end of seasons, the no-hitters, and his larger-than-life reputation, the big righty has taken it up a notch since coming to the Astros. It is almost impossible to look at him taking the bump in October and bet against his team. Thus, the Dodgers are in the right place. The Astros have the right pitcher at the right time. Something will give.
You can say that this is a critical game for the Astros already, as going down 0-2 to start a World Series is a recipe for disaster. That is not wrong. At the same time, every single game during a World Series is a critical game. Nothing about this particular outing is more critical than any other during this seven-game stretch. Both teams have to win four games to take home a trophy, and that still hasn’t changed.
However, Game 2 presents, possibly, the Astros’ best chance to win a game on the road. The Astros have been absolute murder on left-handed pitchers this season, and while that may not have held up against Kershaw–few things do–Rich Hill is not Kershaw. While the Dodgers may not be facing the same kind of pressure as the Astros, no one should be resting easy. If the Astros steal an away game in L.A., then that means the Dodgers have to do the same during the long slog in Houston this weekend. They’re equipped to do it, but potential and practice are two very different things, and a loss tonight may actually put them at a disadvantage overall in what will have become a five-game series where they do not hold home-field advantage.
So, the pendulum could swing tonight, if any one structure in the system breaks down. Verlander is among the least likely cogs in any system to break down. Expecting another shutout seven might be over-relying on his story, but he’s very likely going to have another rock-solid outing and it goes without saying that the Astronauts have a great chance to tie the series up here.
Our two options are to play the Astros in Game 2 or at the adjusted series price of +225. We’re going to choose the former because if they win here, we’ll still have them in the series at +146, which we would then be free-rolling on. However, if we bet the updated series price and they win here, we cash nothing and they could still lose the series.
Pass NHL
SPORTS WAGERS
Sanderson Farms Championship.
The big bucks and the star names of golf are over in China this week for the WGC-HSBC Champions event but we have a better opportunity for a bomb to come in with this more wide open field and so this alternate event is the one we’ll choose to attack. The Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi is very much worthy of our attention. Here we will see an intriguing battle between the young guns fresh from the Web.com Tour, the solid PGA TOUR pros looking to pick up a trophy and the wily old veterans aiming for one final payday before the sanctity of the Champions Tour comes a-calling.
This Jackson layout is a scoreable stretch that doesn’t really favor anybody in particular: hot putters (Cody Gribble won here in 2016), boomers off the tee (Luke List was T2 in 2016) and shorter hitters (David Toms was second in 2015) have all prospered, although the ability to make birdies is universal: a winning mark of around -18 is expected. The greens are Bermuda and pretty slick by all accounts, although they are pretty easy to find given their generous proportions. Some players have spoken of the dense Bermuda rough at Jackson in the past, but Gribble only ranked 38th for Driving Accuracy in his winning effort, so maybe that is something of a fallacy.
We make no bones about it: this is a tough week to pick a winner in that we still don’t have a handle on which Web.com guys are going to kick on. In this very event 12 months ago, Grayson Murray led after 36 holes before Gribble took the honors – both recent Web.com Tour graduates from the deep south – so perhaps that is one angle to explore. We’ve also a penchant for a hungry, more experienced pro looking to return to the spotlight, so again, the field is wide open but that also provides opportunity. Hopefully one or more of our choices will be on the first page leaderboard on Sunday with a chance to cash in.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
Tyler Duncan 50-1
One of the most impressive debuts at the Safeway Open came courtesy of Tyler Duncan, who finished T5 and just four shots shy of winner Brendan Steele. He played nicely from tee-to-green (+1.335 SG) and with flat stick in hand (+1.285), and indeed Duncan was in positive numbers for all of the Strokes Gained metrics to cap a fine week at Silverado – not forgetting that he led after 54 holes. That has hopefully given him a taste for life at the top of the leaderboard, and we’re confident enough his game will hold up if he gets into the mix – he ranked 1st for Driving Accuracy (from a not-too-short 299-yard average) and 16th for Putting Average on the Web.com Tour. At 50-1 in a field like this, he’s worth a bet (Risking 0.2 units to win 10).
Robert Garrigus 50-1
Are you ready to play a game of “Let’s Take a Gamble on an Underpriced Pro?" If golf was played by computers rather than human beings, Garrigus would be an excellent player: he ranked top-40 for Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green on the PGA TOUR last season! The fact he was so highly rated in those three key metrics – he also finished ninth in Greens in Regulation for the old-school stat hunters – suggests he should really be doing a lot better than he is, but here’s a fun stat regardless: Garrigus’ three top-10 finishes in 2017 have all come at alternate events (Canadian Open, Barbasol Championship, Barracuda) and you may just recall in 2010 when he led the St. Jude Classic heading into the final hole before fluffing his lines before then by winning another PGA TOUR later in the year. He also finished top-five at the US Open in 2011. Regardless of what happens at this event, Garrigus is in his element and no matter how you break it down, the above is a captivating collection of evidence (Risking 0.2 units to win 10).
Aaron Baddeley 66-1
Generally down the years, Baddeley has been regarded as a so-so kind of player whose brilliance on the greens has led to some reasonable success – four PGA TOUR wins and counting. The Aussie ranked eighth for SG: Putting in 2015, and while his form with the flat stick has tailed off, since it is noticeable that he tends to do better on slicker Bermuda than grainy Poa Annua, as was the case in missing the cut at the Safeway Open a few weeks ago, albeit at T76. More interesting to us was the fact he ranked 11th for SG: Tee-to-Green and third for SG: Approach at Silverado; not two facets we would normally associate with Baddeley’s game. Remember, this is a generally excellent putter whose iron play is dialed in at present, and his last win on Tour came in another alternate event: the Barbasol Championship in 2016. He was T4 here the same year and finished T5 and T15 at the Texas and Houston Opens respectively last year, and so Baddeley has enough about him to suggest he’s worth getting behind at this price (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2).
Stephan Jaeger 110-1
The history books say do not leave out some Web.com Tour graduates because they are truly the sleepers in the group that pop often at these types of events. While one really doesn’t know which one will go off, there is enough evidence to suggest that German-born Stephan Jaeger is worth a play. He won twice on the Web.com Tour in 2017 – no mean feat – and finished T7 at the News Sentinel Open played in Knoxville, Tennessee. Jaeger actually studied at the University of Tennessee as well, so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised to see that he is comfortable in Southern conditions and on Bermuda greens. He made his maiden PGA TOUR start at the Safeway Open a couple of weeks ago, and while his T30 finish was impressive enough on debut, even more eye-catching was the feat of raking second for GIR. That suggests he is striking the ball well and will not be overawed by stepping up in class. (Risking 0.2 units to win 22).
Featured head-to-head matchups of the week.
Ben Martin -112 over William McGirt
There are a number of young talents on the PGA TOUR that have been bubbling around for a while without really making that next step up to challenge the big boys. Ben Martin, still only 30, has recorded top-five finishes in each of the last four seasons on the PGA TOUR, and not just in alternate events but ‘proper’ tournaments with decent fields: John Deere, Quicken Loans, RBC Heritage and THE PLAYERS Championship. He won in 2015 at Shriners, and while that didn’t prove the catalyst for him to kick on and become a big player on the PGA TOUR, you do sense that Martin has the game to do something special. In theory at least, alternate events should be his best route back into the winner’s circle (he finished T6 and 14th at Barbasol and Barracuda last season) and his T17 at the Safeway Open a couple of weeks ago suggests his game is in good shape.
William McGirt is the highest ranked player (75) at this event but that means jack. He’s 38 years old and hasn’t played since the Dell Technologies Championship back on Sept 1 to Sept 4. Last week, McGirt was honored with the Pride of Wofford Award at a ceremony he attended back at Wofford College. While that may mean nothing, it’s still a distraction that takes away focus and right now, McGirt is off a layoff after finishing T71, Cut, W/D Cut, Cut, T54 and 30th in his last seven tournaments. We’re confident Ben Martin can beat that (Risking 2.24 units to win 2).
Brandon Lee
Astros vs. Dodgers
Play: Astros +100
My money is on the Astros to bounce back and even up the series at 1-1. Houston will have Justin Verlander on the mound, who has been a different pitcher since the trade to the Astros. Verlander is 9-0 with a 1.23 ERA and has saved his best for the postseason, where he's posted a 1.46 ERA in the postseason to this point. He faced this Dodgers team in August and completely shut them down, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits with 9 strikeouts in 8 innings of a 6-1 win. As much respect as I have for LA starter Rich Hill, I think you have to ride the hot hand with Verlander and bank on the Astros offense to do enough to secure the win.