Notifications
Clear all

MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 25th, 2017

7 Posts
1 Users
0 Likes
1,091 Views
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, October 25th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : October 25, 2017 10:06 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

HOUSTON (108 - 66) at LA DODGERS (112 - 59) - 8:05 PM

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. RICH HILL (L)

Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 24-26 (-12.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
VERLANDER is 63-77 (-26.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 79-33 (+28.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 108-66 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 27-18 (+7.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 54-33 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 42-19 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 38-23 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 42-22 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 21-13 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VERLANDER is 12-5 (+7.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 156-179 (-63.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 148-105 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against HOUSTON this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
VERLANDER is 2-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

RICH HILL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
HILL is 2-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.92 and a WHIP of 1.054.
His team's record is 3-3 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-1. (+3.8 units)

HOUSTON @ LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Houston is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Houston
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

StatFox Super Situations

HOUSTON at LA DODGERS
Play On - Home teams (LA DODGERS) allowing 4 or less runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season 113-68 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.4% | 44.8 units ) 12-10 this year. ( 54.5% | 2.6 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

HOUSTON at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 29-5 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in Home games after allowing 2 runs or less this season. The average score was: LA DODGERS (5.5) , OPPONENT (2.9)

 
Posted : October 25, 2017 10:08 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Astros look to even series against Dodgers
By: StatFox.com

The Astros will be looking to even the World Series up with a Game 2 victory at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday.

There was a pair of southpaws on the mound in Game 1, as Dallas Keuchel took the ball for the Astros and Clayton Kershaw was out there for the Dodgers. Kershaw got the best of that matchup, throwing seven innings of one-run ball and striking out 11 batters. It was the best performance of his postseason career and one that silenced a lot of critics. Los Angeles definitely rallied around him in that game and the team certainly has some momentum here. Fortunately for Houston, ace RHP Justin Verlander is going to be on the mound on Wednesday. Verlander has been ridiculous in the postseason, as he is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA in four appearances. Three of those outings were starts and he should be ready to go on Wednesday. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are sending LHP Rich Hill to the mound. The lefty is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two postseason starts this year. Hill is a very consistent pitcher, but the Dodgers need him to bring his game to another level against Verlander. One great sign for Los Angeles is the fact that SS Corey Seager (Back) was able to play in Game 1. He seemed like a legitimate question mark as of a week ago, but he’s provided a major spark for his team.

Justin Verlander has been exactly what the Astros were hoping they were acquiring when they dealt for him. The righty was a huge reason the team has gotten to this point, as he won all three of his starts before the World Series. He was especially important against the Yankees, as he threw 16.0 innings in two starts and allowed just one earned run in those outings. He also struck out a ridiculous 21 batters over those two starts and will be hoping to keep it up here. Verlander must, however, find a way to throw these Dodgers hitters off. Los Angeles loves to get under pitches and go yard, but Verlander’s stuff will make it hard for them to do that. As for Houston’s offense, expect both 2B Jose Altuve and SS Carlos Correa to be determined in this one. Altuve has been the best hitter in the entire league all season and that has not changed in the playoffs. He also happens to hit lefties well, so this matchup with Hill should favor him. Correa, however, was 0-for-3 in Game 1 and needs to be productive here.

Rich Hill is going to be starting for the Dodgers on Wednesday and the team can use a solid performance out of him here. The Dodgers are currently up 1-0 in the series, but they know that they can’t afford to give home-field advantage back to the Astros. Houston is insanely tough to beat at home, so Los Angeles must take care of business at Dodger Stadium. Hill has been okay during the playoffs, but he’ll need to be better than that here. Going up against Verlander, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers winning without six or so great innings from Hill. On offense, the Dodgers have been riding the hot bat of 3B Justin Turner. Turner has turned himself into a legitimate superstar in Los Angeles, and he would probably be the team’s MVP if the Dodgers were to go on and win the World Series. He hit a two-run homer for them on Tuesday and is now up to four homers and 14 RBI during the postseason. But also keep an eye on 1B Cody Bellinger in this game, as he is a pretty good candidate to find a way to take Verlander yard. He hits righties a lot better than he hits lefties and his swing is a good match for Verlander’s power pitching.

 
Posted : October 25, 2017 10:09 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

MLB World Series

Houston @ Los Angeles
Astros are in World Series for 2nd time; last time was in 2005 when they were NL champs and lost to the White Sox. Dodgers are in their first World Series since 1988. Expected to be very hot again for the 5:00 local time first pitch in LA.

Verlander is 8-0, 1.13 in eight starts for Houston; he also won a game in relief. Four of his last five starts went over total. Astros won all three of his road starts. Verlander allowed 2 hits in 8 IP in a 6-1 win over LA for the Tigers on August 20. He is 11-5, 3.00 in 20 playoff games (19 starts).

Hill is 7-5, 2.77 in 14 home starts this year (5-3, 4.06 on road); he is 3-0, 1.67 in his last five starts. Over is 5-3 in his last eight starts. Dodgers are 10-6 in his home starts this season. Hill didn’t pitch against the Astros this year- he is 1-2, 3.96 in six career playoff starts.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : October 25, 2017 10:13 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Astros look to even series against Dodgers
By: StatFox.com

The Astros will be looking to even the World Series up with a Game 2 victory at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday.

There was a pair of southpaws on the mound in Game 1, as Dallas Keuchel took the ball for the Astros and Clayton Kershaw was out there for the Dodgers. Kershaw got the best of that matchup, throwing seven innings of one-run ball and striking out 11 batters. It was the best performance of his postseason career and one that silenced a lot of critics. Los Angeles definitely rallied around him in that game and the team certainly has some momentum here. Fortunately for Houston, ace RHP Justin Verlander is going to be on the mound on Wednesday. Verlander has been ridiculous in the postseason, as he is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA in four appearances. Three of those outings were starts and he should be ready to go on Wednesday. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are sending LHP Rich Hill to the mound. The lefty is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two postseason starts this year. Hill is a very consistent pitcher, but the Dodgers need him to bring his game to another level against Verlander. One great sign for Los Angeles is the fact that SS Corey Seager (Back) was able to play in Game 1. He seemed like a legitimate question mark as of a week ago, but he’s provided a major spark for his team.

Justin Verlander has been exactly what the Astros were hoping they were acquiring when they dealt for him. The righty was a huge reason the team has gotten to this point, as he won all three of his starts before the World Series. He was especially important against the Yankees, as he threw 16.0 innings in two starts and allowed just one earned run in those outings. He also struck out a ridiculous 21 batters over those two starts and will be hoping to keep it up here. Verlander must, however, find a way to throw these Dodgers hitters off. Los Angeles loves to get under pitches and go yard, but Verlander’s stuff will make it hard for them to do that. As for Houston’s offense, expect both 2B Jose Altuve and SS Carlos Correa to be determined in this one. Altuve has been the best hitter in the entire league all season and that has not changed in the playoffs. He also happens to hit lefties well, so this matchup with Hill should favor him. Correa, however, was 0-for-3 in Game 1 and needs to be productive here.

Rich Hill is going to be starting for the Dodgers on Wednesday and the team can use a solid performance out of him here. The Dodgers are currently up 1-0 in the series, but they know that they can’t afford to give home-field advantage back to the Astros. Houston is insanely tough to beat at home, so Los Angeles must take care of business at Dodger Stadium. Hill has been okay during the playoffs, but he’ll need to be better than that here. Going up against Verlander, it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers winning without six or so great innings from Hill. On offense, the Dodgers have been riding the hot bat of 3B Justin Turner. Turner has turned himself into a legitimate superstar in Los Angeles, and he would probably be the team’s MVP if the Dodgers were to go on and win the World Series. He hit a two-run homer for them on Tuesday and is now up to four homers and 14 RBI during the postseason. But also keep an eye on 1B Cody Bellinger in this game, as he is a pretty good candidate to find a way to take Verlander yard. He hits righties a lot better than he hits lefties and his swing is a good match for Verlander’s power pitching.

 
Posted : October 25, 2017 10:14 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Astros vs. Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

It doesn’t mean much to Astros (or Cubs or Diamondbacks) fans, but it is great to see this idiotic Clayton Kershaw narrative being put to bed. The best pitcher on the planet had bad numbers in a small sample size in the playoffs. Well, he shoved last night and the Dodgers are three wins away from a big celebration.

The series is hardly over, so Kershaw may just be a guy that pitched well for the team that lost the World Series. Game 2 is coming up on Wednesday night and is a big swing game for both sides. If the Astros can take home field away, they may not have to return to Los Angeles. If the Dodgers win, they’ll be up 2-0 with probably two more Kershaw starts coming down the pike if necessary.

In Game 1, we saw a significant move on both the side and total. Kershaw’s Dodgers were the preferred side over Dallas Keuchel’s Dodgers. Two mistakes from the Astros pitching staff were the difference, as Chris Taylor led off the game with a resounding dinger and Justin Turner hit the two-out, two-run shot in the sixth inning. Alex Bregman jumped on one Kershaw mistake. That was it. That was good news for under bettors, who were against the grain. The total didn’t move off of 7, but the juice swung from -125 on the under to -125 on the over. It was a stone cold under, as the teams combined for just nine hits and four runs.

Game 2 features a pitching matchup of Justin Verlander against Rich Hill. Verlander has been unhittable for the Astros since he was acquired from the sinking SS Detroit Tiger. In eight starts and one playoff relief appearance, Verlander has allowed eight runs on 34 hits with a 67/11 K/BB ratio. The majority of his runs allowed have come via the home run, with four solo shots allowed in the regular season and one dinger here in the playoffs. Over those 58.2 innings, Verlander has been in complete control and has eaten up advanced metrics like one of those characters on Number Munchers (y’all remember that game?!). He went from an organization in the Stone Age to an organization in the Dot Com Age and he has fully embraced that change in ideology. You can’t tell me that it hasn’t helped him. His pitch usage didn’t change a ton, but he seems to be attacking hitters in different quadrants of the zone and became even more of a fly ball guy.

That is a big deal in this start as far as I’m concerned. This is a great park to be a fly ball pitcher, even with the unseasonably warm temperatures. Another key element to this game for Verlander is that we saw the shadows play a bit of a factor with the rare 5 p.m. PT start time. Verlander’s high spin rate fastball is hard enough to center as it is and his slider and curve are two plus secondaries.

Both teams were extremely efficient in Game 1. The Astros only threw 104 pitches as a unit, 63 for strikes. With Keuchel held to 84 pitches, my guess is that he comes back on short rest to work Game 4. Brad Peacock walked a guy and threw 11 pitches to two batters, but Chris Devenski looked very sharp with a couple strikeouts in a nine-pitch inning. It was good for the Astros to get Devenski out there and get some decent relief work, since that is the area in which they are lacking.

Rich Hill gets the ball for the Dodgers tonight. One of the angles that I do like to play up a bit is the unfamiliar lefty angle. Lefties tend to have quirky arm slots and unnatural movement on their pitches, so hitters that don’t get to face them often tend to have some ugly swings and bad at bats. If you ever wonder why there are so many journeymen lefties that seem to find work, that is the reason why. They bring an element of deception and intrigue, not to mention a different look, since teams generally take anywhere from 70 to 72 percent of their plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. The Astros did face Hill twice when he was with the Athletics in 2016. They didn’t have much success, though the sample size is too small to be predictive.

Hill has not been real sharp in the playoffs. After turning in a 3.32 ERA with a 3.72 FIP and a 3.88 xFIP in the regular season over 135.2 innings of work, he has only worked nine innings across two starts in the postseason with three runs allowed on six hits. Hill has 12 strikeouts, but has also issued four walks and two of the six hits he has allowed have left the ballpark. Hill allowed 18 HR during the regular season, which was obviously a career high with most of his seasons spent as a reliever, but he only allowed four last season in 110.1 innings as a starter.

Something that concerns me from a betting standpoint in this game is that it is a very high-variance matchup for Houston. The Astros led the league in contact authority this season. They hit a lot of balls very hard and led the league in batting average. Hill is the type of guy where patience is the best virtue, since he does have some walk problems. He’s not the most efficient when it comes to his pitch count. But, in the playoffs, when managers go to the bullpen in the middle innings with more regularity, running up Hill’s pitch count is largely irrelevant. Hill excels when it comes to balls in play because he allows a ton of weak contact. In terms of average exit velocity against, Hill ranked 11th in lowest average exit velocity at 84.3 mph.

There were some mistakes, though. Hill ranked 107th out of 228 pitchers in barrels per plate appearance. That speaks to the high home run rate. Most of the balls in play for the Astros will be weak. The ones that aren’t, however, could be barreled up and hit hard. If the Astros have a few of those, it will put Verlander in a great position to succeed.

Pick: Houston Astros

I’d start with a position on the Astros tonight and see where things go from there. Justin Verlander is more or less the same pitcher he has been, just with more data and a much healthier environment with a good team. He’s been terrific and I would expect that to continue. The Hill angles that I talked about make this a hard game to bet, but I would expect him to be out of the game in the fifth or sixth regardless of how he’s pitching. If you get a chance to live bet the edge that the Dodgers have over the Astros when it comes to relief pitching, go ahead and do that if the price is right. Grab Houston at plus money as a starting position and then see how the game goes.

I would also play the under. The total is 7.5 with the under juiced, but I would anticipate the shadows to come into play again. Also, the pressure and the leverage of the World Series are just conducive to unders. As we saw yesterday, nobody came close to stringing an inning together. Three home runs were hit to account for all of the runs. In between, there were a lot of strikeouts and weak contact. I’d expect a lot of the same tonight.

 
Posted : October 25, 2017 10:36 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

World Series Game 2 Betting Preview: Astros at Dodgers
Covers.com

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers (-115, 7.5)

Justin Verlander is 4-0 during his stellar postseason run and looks to continue the success when the Houston Astros visit the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 2 of the World Series on Wednesday. Verlander will aim to help Houston knot the series after Clayton Kershaw and Justin Turner guided the Dodgers to a 3-1 victory in Game 1.

Verlander was acquired from Detroit by the Astros to fortify their rotation, and now he's a symbol of a franchise looking for its first World Series title in the wake of a damaging hurricane that ravaged Houston in August. "In any organization, the opportunity to win your first championship is something special, but really with what's going on in Houston now specifically, I think it makes it even that much more special," Verlander said during his press conference on Tuesday. "I mean, given this opportunity, if we come away successful, you leave a legacy and mark on people that won't be forgotten." Kershaw allowed one run and three hits with 11 strikeouts over seven innings while Turner belted a tiebreaking two-run homer (his fourth of the postseason) in Tuesday's victory. "You enjoy it while it happens," Turner told reporters, "and then you go home and you find a way to prepare, and we've got to figure out how to beat Verlander."

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks are giving a lot of respect to Justin Verlander (and they should) opening the Dodgers as very slight -113 home favorites. They have moved very slightly to the current number -115. The total hit the board the at 7.5. Check out the complete line history here.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Justin Verlander (4-0, 1.46 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Rich Hill (0-0, 3.00)

Verlander has a stellar 11-5 postseason record, but none of those victories occurred in the World Series, where he went 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in three career starts for the Tigers. The 34-year-old's arrival in Houston changed the complexion of the rotation, providing the team with a second ace alongside Dallas Keuchel as well as raising the stature of the organization. "We understand the magnitude of his performance and the magnitude of his entrance into our clubhouse," Astros manager A.J. Hinch said at a press conference. "The way he's fit in, the way he's been intellectually curious on how to get better, but let's be honest, ultimately the way he's performed, has been second to none."

Hill is 1-2 with a 3.96 ERA in six career postseason starts and is making his World Series debut. The 37-year-old is trying to keep the moment in perspective after his major-league career appeared to be finished in the summer of 2015, when he signed with the independent Long Island Ducks, but 26 of his 50 career regular-season victories have come since that stint. "I wouldn't change that for anything," Hill said at his press conference on Tuesday. "It was learning, reigniting that fire, reigniting that passion for what we do out there on the field. And really getting back into disassociating yourself with the results, and just understanding that it is a pitch-to-pitch process and understanding that the moment is all that matters."

UMPIRE REPORT: Paul Nauert

Nauert was one of the biggest homer umps in the Majors this season, with the home team going 21-9 (70 percent). When he was calling balls and strikes this season where the home team was listed between -101 and -120 , the home team went 5-0. Nauert was also one of the best Under umpires, going 10-18 against the total. That is interesting considering his low strike rate of 62.04

TRENDS:

* Astros are 8-0 in Verlanders last eight starts.
* Dodgers are 5-0 in their last five playoff home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Astros last six road games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Dodgers last seven overall.

WALK OFF NOTES:

* The Dodgers bullpen came in and shut the door behind Kershaw, throwing another two hitless and shutout innings. Since the start of the NLCS the Dodgers bullpen has pitched 19 scoreless innings, striking out 23, allowing just four hits with just one walk.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the red-hot Verlander in Game 2, with the 63 percent of wagers on the Astros. With another hot pitcher on the mound, bettors like the Under here with 58 percent of wagers on it.

 
Posted : October 25, 2017 10:48 am
Share: