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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, October 18th, 2017

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Free Picks for Wednesday, October 18th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:06 am
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DAVE COKIN

PELICANS AT GRIZZLIES
PLAY: PELICANS +2.5

My strategy early on in the NBA season is to focus on underdogs that I have rated superior on my preseason projections. The whole idea is to grab a few early winners vs. some soft numbers and to do so before the odds get adjusted. That will not take long at all, so it’s imperative for me to not hesitate early and to garner what I see as prime early season value.

In this game, I have New Orleans rated considerably stronger than Memphis. So this is strictly a numbers play for me and an opportunity to take basket or so with a Pelicans squad I consider to be stronger than their Grizzlies counterparts. New Orleans plus the points is the choice.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:07 am
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Joey Juice

Everyone has bet over in every one of these games in this series waiting for the Cubs bats to wake up. It's over, it's not going to happen, we're not going to see any explosiveness from this Cub's lineup unfortunately this postseason.

Once again we look to the numbers for this easy free win, and the numbers significantly support the under. The Dodgers don't score a lot of runs on the road, as the under is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. In fact, the Dodgers Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games overall. More importantly the under is 6-0-1 in the Dodgers last 7 vs. NL central opponents. Besides, the Dodgers under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 playoff road games.

For Chicago we see the same type of numbers. Chicago under is 3-0-1 last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Chicago under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. And most telling is the fact that the Cubs under is 6-1 in their last seven playoff games at home.

Stay with the Under here.

3* L.A. DODGERS-CHICAGO UNDER

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:07 am
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Chris Jordan

Game 4, and the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs are up against it. And the only way this team can challenge the No. 1 seed Los Angeles Dodgers is to buckle down with pitching. The Cubs have to silence the bats, and keep things tight, otherwise this thing is over tonight.

Wood was fantastic all season for Los Angeles, finishing the regular season with a 16-3 mark, and 2.72 ERA. Tonight the left-hander makes his first career postseason start, and I think he'll be fine in silencing the Cubs bats. Wood threw two scoreless innings in Game 4 of the NLCS last year against the Cubs, so I don't think there will be any jitters.

Meanwhile, Arrieta toes the slab for Chicago tonight, making his ninth career postseason start. He will be looking to avenge a loss in his lone National League Divisional Series appearance against the Washington Nationals. He only allowed one unearned run over four innings, so he will be fired up here.

Take the under.

3* Cubs/Dodgers Under

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:08 am
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Jeff Benton

Your Wednesday freebie is the Under in the Astros-Yankees game.

It is a rematch of your Game One starters, as Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka toe the rubber again, but this time in the Bronx.

In Game One, both starters were as stingy as they come, Houston able to crack through for 2 runs while holding New York to just 1 run in an easy Under.

There is really no need to type out all of Keuchel's numbers against the Yankees, let's just say that he OWNS New York, and I find it hard to believe that New York is going to suddenly erupt on a pitcher that continually shuts them down.

On the flip side, Tanaka has been on fire in the playoffs and will be equally as stingy against a Houston team that is averaging just 2 runs per game this series!

Lots of goose eggs on the scoreboard today.

2* HOUSTON-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:08 am
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Tommy Brunson

Wednesday comp play is the Dallas Mavericks as the home favorite over the Atlanta Hawks.

Neither team looks like they will be making much noise this season, but at least the Mavericks core is similar to last season's team. Atlanta on the other hand is going through a total rebuild, as Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore are really the only mainstays back from last year's team that saw significant minutes.

The time is right for Dallas to end a 7-game series losing streak, that is for sure.

Atlanta is also on a 6-1 against the spread role during their 7-game recent series domination. Look for that to change tonight.

Dallas gets the new season off on the right foot as they pick up the win and the cover.

1* DALLAS

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:09 am
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Mike Lundin

Portland vs. Phoenix
Play: Portland -135

The Portland Trail Blazers will be without C.J. McCollum here in the season opener at Phoenix Wednesday night as he will be serving a one game suspension for leaving the bench area in last week's preseason clash with the Suns.

I still like the Blazers to come out ahead though as they have several players who can pick up the slack.

Phoenix is in rebuild mode and enters the season with the NBA's youngest roster at an average age of 24.5 years. I like what the Suns are doing and will no doubt pay off over time, but this will be another tough season for Phoenix.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:09 am
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Scott Spreitzer

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies
Play: Pelicans +2½

We like the inside/outside potential for the Pelicans this season. DeMarcus Cousins joined Anthony Davis inside during last season, but the two will now have had time to develop chemistry with each other and the rest of the squad. New Orleans won't have Rajon Rondo (hernia) to start the season, but we have no problem with Jrue Holiday running the show in his absence. Memphis isn't the same team we have grown used to over the last several seasons. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are still around, but HC David Fizdale will look to open up the offense a little more than recent editions and I do believe it'll take a couple regular season games before things come together. The Grizzlies whipped the Pelicans in the final game of the preseason, but I expect different results now that it counts. The underdog has been the way to go in this series of late and we'll look for the dog to cash again.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:10 am
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Cappers Club

Minnesota at San Antonio
Play: Minnesota +1½

The Wolves and the Spurs kick off their season on Wednesday night, and with the Wolves as underdogs they have value.

The Wolves added Jimmy Butler this off season to along with Wiggins and Karl Anthony-Towns and most are expecting big things out of them this year.

I expect they will be fired up to prove a point early in the season, and on national television there is no better way to do it.

The Spurs will be shorthanded this game without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. I think they will really miss Leonard's defense in this game and it will cause struggles for the Spurs.

I think the Wolves will win this game.

Some trends to note. Road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:11 am
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Scott Rickenbach

Hornets vs. Pistons
Play: Hornets +3½

Even though the Hornets will without Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist tonight, the odds makers were certainly well aware of that when they made this line. The fact is that Dwight Howard is likely to be a beast for Charlotte tonight. The big man is re-united with coach Steve Clifford. The Hornets coach was an assistant with Orlando when Howard had his biggest seasons and was the franchise player for the Magic. Howard is rejuvenated and ready to go here and the Hornets are hungry to get their season off to a strong start. Detroit won only 37 games last season and that was the 4th time in 5 seasons that they've been held to 37 wins or less. Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy admitted he is unsure of his starters tonight and his playing rotation. All 12 guys who dress could play. I just don't expect the Pistons to be very "fluid" at all tonight and, though Detroit took 3 of the 4 meeting last season it was a bit of a fluke. The Pistons made 37 of 93 three pointers in those 3 wins. That's 40% whereas on the season Detroit only shot 33% from three point land. With one win by 1 point and another by just 6 points. Just "normal" three point shooting would have had the Pistons at 1-3 versus Charlotte last season. Couple that with the Hornets addition of Howard being a big factor on both ends of the floor and you have a great spot to back the road dog!

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:11 am
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Tony Karpinski

Nuggets vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -2

Utah is going to surprise people, as most feel this is not a playoff team without Gordon Hayward. Last year, they made the playoffs despite their starting point guard missing a large part of the season. With George Hill gone and Ricky Rubio replacing him, the Jazz could get a lot more production from the point guard spot. The Jazz also picked up one of the NBA's best defenders in Thabo Sefolosha. The Jazz still have a big center in the middle which is a big impact. Lay the small number with the Jazz.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:12 am
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Jim Feist

Blazers at Suns
Pick: Over 219

Portland had a very good preseason, going 5-1 and scoring a league high 115.2 ppg. The Blazers will be without guard C.J. McCollum (Suspension) here on Wednesday as he serves his one-game suspension. The Blazers are led by Damian Lillard, who averaged 25 points per game each of the last two years. Portland has stated they intend to start the season fast after recent years where they got off to terrible starts. The Suns finished the preseason with a 2-3 record an averaged 107 points and allowed 110. Both of these clubs scored big in the preseason and I don't see that changing as they each start the regular season.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:17 am
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Gary Bart

Hawks at Mavericks
Play: Hawks +6

The Hawks are coming off a 43 win season but are expected to take a step backward this season. They traded Dwight Howard to Charlotte in the off-season. Dallas won 33 games last season, finishing last in their division. Look for the Hawks to keep this game close.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:25 am
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Wunderdog

Minnesota @ San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio -1.5

Young Minnesota opens the season on the road on a 4-11-1 ATS run, including 3-8-1 ATS away from home. They were 11-30 straight-up on the road last season and are getting too much respect with this betting number because of the injury to San Antonio star Kawhi Leonard. The Spurs went 61-21 last year, led the league in defensive rating (100.9) and were seventh in offensive rating (108.8 ). They have LaMarcus Aldridge up front, joined by newcomer Rudy Gay, who was strong during the preseason (10.5 points, 5.0 rebounds in 21 minutes per game). San Antonio has the best coach in the league, a strong home court edge, and is 8-3 ATS against Minnesota. The Spurs are also 43-23 ATS in the first half of the season.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 12:02 pm
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Rob Vinciletti

Rockets vs. Kings
Play: Kings +7.5

The Kings open up here tonight with a new look led by G. Hill. We have a solid game 1 system we use that plays on home teams in their season opener vs an opponent that played on the road last night. The Rockets come in after running up and down with Golden St. Looking at the database over the past 2 3 seasons we see that road teams with no rest off a road game with Golden St are just 2-11 ats. If these teams are favored they are 0-5 straight up. Look for the Kings to hang around for the cover.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 1:48 pm
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