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MLB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 18th, 2017

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MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, October 18th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 10:24 am
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MLB Playoffs

Houston @ New York
Astros are 7-4 against New York this season, splitting six games in the Bronx. Houston scored total of nine runs in first four games in this series, all won by the home team.

Keuchel is 4-1, 1.76 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Astros are 10-2 in his road starts. He is 1-0, 0.69 in two starts vs NY this season and is 4-0, 1.69 in five career playoff games (4 starts).

Tanaka is 2-1, 0.90 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under. New York won his last five home starts. He is 0-2, 11.74 in two starts vs Houston this year and is 1-2, 3.33 in three career playoff starts.

Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers are 7-2 vs Chicago this season, 3-0 in this series; they shut Cubs out in 3 of the 7 wins. Home team won seven of nine series games (under 7-2).

Wood is making his first postseason appearance this year; he is 2-0, 2.00 in his last three starts. Dodgers are 8-5 in his road starts this year. Wood is 0-0 in four relief stints in playoffs, giving up 8 runs in 7.1 IP— this is his first playoff start. He is 0-0, 1.85 in two starts (8.2 IP) against the Cubs this season.

Arrieta is 0-3, 6.28 in his last four starts; under is 8-6-2 in his last 16 starts. Cubs are 6-5 in his home starts. Arrieta allowed four runs in six IP in his only start against the Dodgers this year; he is 4-3, 3.33 in eight career playoff starts.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 10:25 am
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Wednesday's MLB League Championship Betting Preview and Odds
Covers.com

Houston Astros at New York Yankees (HOU -115, NYY +105, Total: 7.5)

The New York Yankees will take another crack at Houston Astros ace Dallas Keuchel when the teams tangle in a critical Game 5 of their American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. A two-run seventh inning and four-run eighth propelled New York to a stirring 6-4 comeback victory in Game 4 on Tuesday, knotting the best-of-seven matchup at two wins apiece.

Slugger Aaron Judge, limited to one single in seven at-bats in back-to-back losses at Houston, is 3-for-6 with five RBIs in the two games in the Bronx after beginning the comeback with a solo homer and delivering the game-tying RBI double in the eighth. Judge had that one single at Minute Maid Park against Keuchel, but that was one of just four hits the left-hander allowed in seven scoreless frames of the Game 1 victory. Keuchel is 6-2 with a 1.09 ERA in eight career starts against New York in the regular season and playoffs combined and won his only prior postseason turn at Yankee Stadium with six scoreless innings in the 2015 AL wild-card game. The Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who allowed a pair of runs opposite Keuchel in the series opener.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 0.71 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (1-1, 1.38)

Keuchel is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in five career postseason games (four starts) and struck out 10 Yankees in the series-opening win. Both of this year's playoff outings have taken place at home, but the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner was much more human on the road during the regular season - going 5-5 with a 4.24 ERA and allowing opponents to produce a .720 OPS, compared to .513 at home. Keuchel's last appearance away from home in the playoffs was in relief in Game 5 of the ALDS in 2015, when he was tagged for three runs in one inning.

Like Keuchel, Tanaka has had better fortune at home, and he finished the regular season by going 5-1 with a 1.29 ERA over a six-start stretch at Yankee Stadium. The 28-year-old has given up two runs and seven hits - no home runs - over 13 innings this postseason. Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel recorded RBI singles in Game 1 against Tanaka, who has received a total of one run of support in his three career playoff starts.

TRENDS:

* Astros are 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games.
* Astros are 11-2 in Keuchel's last 13 road starts.
* Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 playoff home games.
* Yankees are 39-16 in Tanaka's last 55 home starts.
* Over is 5-1 in Astros' last 6 playoff road games.
* Over is 6-1 in Yankees' last 7 League Championship home games.
* Astros are 6-1 in Keuchel's last 7 starts vs. Yankees.
* Yankees are 0-5 in Tanaka's last 5 starts vs. Astros.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the road chalk Astros with 63 percent of the picks. Over is picking up 51 percent of the totals wagers.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (LAD +101, CHC -109, Total: 9.5)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win away from ending the Chicago Cubs’ reign and getting to the World Series for the first time since 1988. The visiting Dodgers turn to Alex Wood on Wednesday as they look to continue the dominant pitching that has led them to a 3-0 lead in the National League Championship Series and complete a sweep over the Cubs.

The Cubs have scored first in every game of the series, but they haven’t crossed the plate again in any of them. Kyle Schwarber staked Chicago to a 1-0 lead in Game 3 with a first-inning home run, and it seemed the team's bats might be poised to break out of their slump, but Yu Darvish settled in after a rocky opening frame and the Dodgers’ bullpen continued its domination in the series. Los Angeles relievers have not allowed a run in their last 16 2/3 innings and have given up only two hits in the matchup. The Dodgers also remained hot at the plate, as Chris Taylor and Andre Ethier homered in their 6-1 win on Tuesday, giving the club eight blasts in the series and 11 in its six postseason games - all victories.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Alex Wood (2017: 16-3, 2.72 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (0-1, 0.00)

Wood will be making his first postseason start after four less-than-stellar relief outings. The 26-year-old allowed eight runs - four earned - in 5 1/3 innings over his first three postseason appearances before working two scoreless frames out of the bullpen against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS. Wood is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in eight career regular-season games (five starts) versus Chicago.

Arrieta is 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA in eight postseason starts over the last three seasons. The 31-year-old lost his only start in the NL Division Series against Washington despite allowing only one unearned run and two hits over four innings, and the Dodgers beat him in last year’s NLCS by tagging him for four runs over five frames. Arrieta is 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA in five career regular-season starts against Los Angeles.

TRENDS:

* Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 playoff games.
* Dodgers are 18-4 in Wood's last 22 starts.
* Cubs are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Dodgers' last 8 vs. National League Central.
* Under is 7-1 in Cubs' last 8 games following a loss.
* Dodgers are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.

CONSENSUS: There is no consensus data for this matchup at the time of publication of this preview.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 10:57 am
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MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Will today be the final time that we have more than one baseball game in a day? If the Los Angeles Dodgers can finish off the Chicago Cubs, the answer is yes. Our only hope for more than one game in a day is at least six games for the Dodgers and Cubs and seven games for the Astros and Yankees. One of those seems fairly likely. The other one does not.

I’d like to point out that I was fully behind Joe Girardi’s decision to start Romine over Sanchez behind the plate for Gray’s start. I’m not sure if Romine will be there next season in that role or not, but I think Sonny Gray will be one of those guys with a personal catcher next year. He looks to be throwing with more intent with a more trustworthy backstop. That really changed the dynamic of the game for me and was a move that I did not see coming.

As we’ve seen, live betting is the way to go in the playoffs, as some of these bullpens have just been awful. Starting with a plus money position on the Astros netted you a freeroll on the Yankees in live betting and they would have paid off a pretty penny facing a 4-0 deficit. If you took the Dodgers, as suggested yesterday, you are eating a chicken dinner today.

Here are the picks and analyses for October 18, 2017:

Houston (-115) at New York; Total: 7.5

We’ve got a Game 1 rematch here as Dallas Keuchel squares off with Masahiro Tanaka. Both guys shoved in Game 1, so we’ll see what they have in store for Game 5. This line has moved down about 10 cents since the open and I totally agree with the move. I had some concerns about Keuchel in Game 1 because he was more of a pitch-to-contact guy than most of the other starters that the Yankees had faced in the playoffs. He commanded his pitches beautifully and struck out 10.

Will we get a repeat performance here? I’m not sure. Keuchel didn’t lack strikeouts in the regular season, but he only had 125 of them in 145.2 innings of work. The unfamiliar lefty angle is one that I do like to play and the Yankees don’t see a whole lot of Keuchel. They have a better idea this time around of what to expect from him. It may not make a difference because guys that can command the bottom of the zone are so special nowadays, but I do think the Yankees have a better chance relative to how Game 1 went. Keuchel posted a 2.90 ERA with a 3.79 FIP and a 3.32 xFIP during the regular season. In two playoff starts, he has been exquisite with a 0.71 ERA, a 1.42 FIP, and a 2.12 xFIP with a 17/4 K/BB ratio. After allowing 168 hits in 168 innings last season, Keuchel only allowed 116 in 145.2 innings this season. We talk about batted balls being volatile, which remains true, but Keuchel was able to use his command to his advantage to limit hard contact and that is so important in today’s hitting environment.

Masahiro Tanaka has shoved in two postseason starts of his own. He has a 10/2 K/BB ratio across 13 innings with just two runs allowed on seven hits. He’s had excellent command of his splitter and has had good fastball life. Tanaka’s ground ball rate in two postseason starts is 52.9 percent, up from 49.2 percent in the regular season. When you look at a lot of playoff scoring, we haven’t seen innings get manufactured. We’ve seen a hit or a walk and a dinger. That’s basically how it went during the regular season, too. Nobody knows that better than Tanaka, who had a 4.74 ERA because he had a 21.2 percent HR/FB% and gave up 35 long balls. Tanaka did shave 106 points off of his slugging percentage against from the first half to the second half. His HR/FB% was still too high at 19 percent, but at least he made some progress.

Until the Astros start to hit, I will have a hard time backing them. As Buster Olney tweeted this morning, outside of Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve, the Astros are 9-for-89 in this series. The Yankees have waves of arms and they really do a tremendous job of generating swings and misses and ramping up the velocity. Even Houston, the best offense in baseball against premium velocity, has had issues.

It has to be demoralizing for Houston to break a 0-0 tie with a four-spot and still find a way to lose the game. The bullpen has been terrible. AJ Hinch gave his group a vote of confidence after the game, but it felt kind of empty. He knows he needs length from Keuchel tonight. Even Chris Devenski hasn’t been immune to the bullpen sickness, so his top middle relief weapon is malfunctioning.

In what looks to be a low-scoring environment that will once again come down to the bullpens, the choice is clear. The better bullpen resides in New York and that’s the side I will take today.

Los Angeles at Chicago (-110) Total: 9.5

The Cubs have looked awful in this series. They don’t have a hit in their last 29 at bats off of the Dodgers bullpen. The hitters have struck out 32 times and walked only four times. This isn’t what we saw from the Cubs in the second half. This isn’t what we would expect from the Cubs. It was a microcosm of the series yesterday when Carl Edwards Jr. walked Yu Darvish on four pitches to force in a run. Darvish shouldn’t even have been hitting for the Dodgers in that spot, but he didn’t even have to try to squeeze.

It feels like the Justin Turner home run won more than just a game. It feels like it won the series. It was an affirmation of how deep the bullpen problems run for Joe Maddon and the Cubs. The cross-country trip from Washington to Los Angeles and then back to Chicago was a real grind, especially with the time spent in Albuquerque for a passenger in distress.

Can the Cubs rally and avoid the sweep? Alex Wood will take the mound for the Dodgers. Wood turned in an excellent regular season with a 2.72 ERA, a 3.32 FIP, and a 3.34 xFIP across 152.1 innings of work. He struck out 151 and walked 38. He did struggle mightily in the second half until a DL stint seemed to get him back on track a bit late in the year. He simply stopped striking guys out. His velocity went down in a big way. He was shelved from late August to early September and looked a bit better when he got back, but he’s a huge unknown today. Per PITCHf/x, Wood’s fastball velocity for the season was 91.9 mph. In his five starts after the DL stint, it was 91.3, 91.7, 90.5, 90.0, 90.2, so I’m thoroughly worried about how he’ll look in this spot. This will be Wood’s first appearance in about three weeks. I’d like to think that the velo will have had a chance to come back and that maybe he was just fatigued, but I’m not sure.

Speaking of velocity decreases, Jake Arrieta had one this season and it really affected him early in the year. He made some adjustments and things got better, as he finished with a 3.53 ERA. His underlying metrics weren’t as kind with a 4.16 FIP and a 4.11 xFIP. Arrieta’s command really fell off. Not only did he go from 16 HR allowed in 197.1 innings in 2016 to 23 HR in 168.1 innings in 2017, but his BABIP rose by 38 points. Home runs don’t count in the BABIP calculation, so the fact that his spike in BABIP coincided with a spike in home runs is quite significant. He was a lot better in the second half, at the expense of missing bats. Arrieta had 102 K in 101.1 IP in the first half and just 61 K in 67 IP in the second half. He cut his batting average against by 34 points, his OBP by 40 points, and his SLG by 28 points. He fared better in the luck metrics, but his xFIP was higher in the second half.

I won’t be involved in this game before it starts. These are two high-variance starters as far as I’m concerned, especially Wood, since he hasn’t worked in three weeks. If I get an in-game opportunity to play the Dodgers bullpen against the Cubs bullpen, I will do that. The Dodgers have four shots to close this thing out, but you can bet that they’d rather not burn a Clayton Kershaw start in Game 5.

With the Yankees and Astros at least guaranteed to play through Thursday, Kershaw would have time to go on reasonable rest if he had to pitch Game 5, but saving pitches is a big deal at this time of the year. One of the most ridiculous stats I’ve seen this postseason is that the Dodgers pitching staff had thrown fewer pitches than any team (not eliminated in the Wild Card) in the playoffs prior to Game 3. That even means the teams that were eliminated in the DS round. They have been stunningly efficient. Holding the starters to 75-80 pitches to rely on the bullpen depth has been extremely smart on their part and it has worked very well. I’d be surprised if Wood even makes it that far, so that’s why I’d wait and see what comes up in live betting.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:00 am
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Dodgers go for NLCS sweep
StatFox.com

The Dodgers have a shot to sweep and advance to the World Series with a victory over the Cubs on Wednesday.

Many thought that an elimination game would bring the best out of the Cubs, but they ended up folding on Tuesday. The Dodgers dominated Game 3, winning 6-1 at Wrigley. Los Angeles can now put away Chicago, which one would have to imagine is a very strong possibility. The Cubs obviously don’t want to be swept, but there’s definitely going to be a feeling that they let this series slip away already. It’s extremely tough to come back from a 3-0 series deficit, especially when you would have to win multiple games on the road. The Dodgers also seemingly have the edge on the mound here, as LHP Alex Wood (16-3, 2.72 ERA, 151 K) is starting for Los Angeles. RHP Jake Arrieta 0-1, 0.0 ERA, 4 K in one postseason start) is going for Chicago, which isn’t necessarily the worst of news for them. He’s a good pitcher, but Wood was phenomenal all year. The one thing that does tilt in Arrieta’s favor is the fact that he has already started a game in the playoffs this year. This is Wood’s first appearance and nerves could get the best of him.

The Dodgers are a win away from making it to the World Series, but it might not be easy for them to earn that one. The Cubs are going to be playing for pride and they know what it’s like to come back in a big series, as they were down 3-1 in the World Series a year ago. That means that Los Angeles will need a good outing from Wood here, and his regular season performance suggests that he should be up to the task. Wood allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 of his appearances for the Dodgers this year. He was probably their most reliable starter after Kershaw, which makes it amazing that he’s their fourth starter in the postseason. Wood also happens to have pitched well in his most recent outing against the Cubs, as he shut them out for five innings on May 26. He struck out eight batters in that game, so he should be pretty confident here. On offense, look for both 1B Cody Bellinger and 3B Justin Turner to show up here. They are two of the most dangerous hitters that the Dodgers have and they know they need to do what they can to help this team move on.

The Cubs need a victory on Wednesday, so Jake Arrieta will need to have a big night on the mound for Chicago. He was solid in his only other start this postseason, as he allowed no earned runs in 4.0 innings of work in a loss to the Nationals last series. Arrieta did, however, walk five batters in that game. If he does that again on Wednesday then this game could get out of hand, as the Dodgers tend to come up with timely hits more often than the Nationals do. Arrieta will also need to be thinking about outdueling Wood, which is pretty much a must on Wednesday. And on offense, the Cubs can kiss this series goodbye if 3B Kris Bryant and 1B Anthony Rizzo don’t show up here. Bryant did, however, go 2-for-4 in Tuesday’s loss, so perhaps he is snapping out of his funk at the plate. The team desperately needs him to start driving in runs, but that also requires his teammates to be on when he gets up.

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:01 am
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