MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, October 17th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

New York @ Houston
Astros are 7-3 against New York this season, winning 3 of 5 in the Bronx. Houston scored total of five runs in first three games in this series.

McCullers is 0-2, 7.50 in his last four starts; his last win was June 24. Over is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Houston is 1-4 in his last five road starts. He is 1-0, 2.38 in two starts vs NY this season, is 0-0, 3.86 in two career playoff games (one start).

Gray is 1-3, 6.75 in his last four starts; under is 8-4-1 in his last 13 starts. NY is 2-3 in his home starts. Gray allowed five runs in five IP in his one start vs Houston this year- he is 0-2, 3.31 in three career playoff starts.

Cubs @ Dodgers
Dodgers are 5-2 vs Chicago this season; they shut Cubs out in 3 of the 5 wins. Home team won six of seven series games (under 6-1).

Darvish is 3-0, 1.11 in his last four starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts. Dodgers are 4-2 in his road starts. He is 1-2, 4.32 in three career playoff starts- he hasn’t pitched the Cubs this year.

Hendricks is 2-0, 1.82 in his last five starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Cubs are 7-6 in his home starts. Hendricks is 2-1, 2.60 in nine career playoff starts; he hasn’t pitched against the Dodgers this season.

Armadillosports.com

Tuesday's MLB Championship Series Betting Preview
Covers.com

Houston Astros at New York Yankees (HOU +115, NYY -125, Total: 9)

The New York Yankees woke up offensively just in time on their home field and hope to build on a big night when the Houston Astros visit for Game 4 of the American League Championship Series on Tuesday. The Yankees managed only two runs while losing the first two games but exploded for eight runs in the first four innings on Monday before going on to post a critical 8-1 triumph.

Aaron Judge, who was 4-for-31 with 19 strikeouts in the playoffs coming into Monday's contest, and Todd Frazier (2-for-15 in the previous five games) each belted a three-run homer to break out of postseason slumbers as New York avoided playing another elimination game. Sonny Gray will try to help the Yankees even the series and keep Jose Altuve under control as the AL batting champion is 11-for-30 lifetime against him and hitting .481 with three homers in the postseason. Houston will counter with Lance McCullers Jr., who struck out 132 batters over 118 2/3 innings during the regular season but is looking for his first victory since June 24. The Astros, who led the majors in several offensive categories this campaign and averaged six runs along with 12.3 hits in the AL Division Series, have managed five runs and 15 hits over the first three games against the Yankees.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Lance McCullers Jr. (0-0, 6.00 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Sonny Gray (0-1, 8.10)

McCullers makes his second career playoff start and first this postseason after giving up two runs and three hits over three innings of relief against Boston on Oct. 8. The 24-year-old Tampa native, who gave up two runs over 6 1/3 frames in his other playoff start in 2015, went 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA during the regular season but was winless in his last eight turns. Didi Gregorius is 5-for-8 against McCullers, who went 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two starts versus the Yankees during an eight-game stretch this year in which he went 5-0.

Gray has had plenty of rest since permitting three runs on three hits and four walks over 3 1/3 innings against Cleveland in the ALDS for his eighth loss in 12 decisions since joining the Yankees. The 27-year-old Vanderbilt product is 2-3 with a 5.65 ERA in five starts at Yankee Stadium this year and gave up five runs over five innings in a loss to Houston on June 20 while with Oakland. Gray is winless in three career postseason outings, but he pitched well for the Athletics during the 2013 playoffs (2.08 ERA in two starts).

TRENDS:

* Astros are 40-18 in their last 58 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Astros are 1-7 in McCullers Jr.'s last 8 starts.
* Yankees are 20-7 in their last 27 home games.
* Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 League Championship games.
* Over is 7-1 in McCullers Jr.'s last 8 starts overall.
* Home team is 19-9 in Guccione's last 28 games behind home plate.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (LAD +102, CHC -110, Total: 8.5)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have yet to lose in the postseason and are two wins from reaching their first World Series since 1988. The defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs have three straight home games beginning Tuesday to try to prevent them from getting any closer.

The Cubs have had the Dodgers’ number at Wrigley Field recently, winning two of three there during last year’s NLCS and taking two of three when the Dodgers visited in April. Los Angeles’ pitchers have dominated this series, though, allowing only three runs through two games as the bullpen has combined for eight scoreless frames and allowed one baserunner and no hits. “I think up to this point we've done everything we can to put ourselves in a good position, but there is a long way to go,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters. “It’s definitely noted how resilient that club is over there. They're going to do everything they can to win a game, and we're going to do the same.” To get back into the series, the Cubs will have to get the big bats in the middle of their lineup going as Chicago is hitting .117 in the series and stars Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are a combined 1-for-14 with six strikeouts.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers RH Yu Darvish (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (1-0, 3.27)

Darvish won his only start in the NLDS, allowing one run and two hits while striking out seven over five innings to beat Arizona for his first win in three postseason starts. The 31-year-old went 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA in nine regular-season starts after the Dodgers acquired him from Texas, and has allowed only two earned runs over his last four starts dating to the regular season. Darvish faced the Cubs last season while with the Rangers and allowed two runs over 4 1/3 innings in a loss at Wrigley Field.

Hendricks is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in nine postseason starts, but wasn’t at his best in Game 5 of the NLDS against Washington, allowing four runs --and two homers -- over four innings. The 27-year-old helped the Cubs clinch last year’s NLCS by throwing 7 1/3 scoreless innings against the Dodgers a year ago. Hendricks is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA in three regular-season meetings against Los Angeles.

TRENDS:

* Dodgers are 1-10 in their last 11 League Championship road games.
* Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Dodgers' last 7 vs. National League Central.
* Under is 6-1 in Cubs' last 7 playoff home games.
* Under is 24-6-1 in Hendricks' last 31 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Chicago.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home chalk Cubs with 60 percent of the picks.

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

The MLB playoffs roll right along today with both series in action. The Yankees have a chance to even up their best-of-seven ALCS against the Astros and the Dodgers have the chance to take a commanding lead in their best-of-seven NLCS with the Cubs. At time of writing, no line is out for the Astros vs. Yankees game after last night’s resounding win for the home team.

Here are my thoughts and some picks for the two games:

Houston at New York (-145) Total (8.5)

I can already tell you that this will be the toughest handicap of the series. Lance McCullers Jr. gets the start for the Astros and Sonny Gray will go for the Yankees. McCullers has not started yet this postseason and was limited as a starter throughout much of the second half due to injuries. Gray has not pitched since Game 1 of the ALDS and he did not pitch particularly well in that outing. I won’t call these guys high-variance starters because I don’t think that the chances of them both pitching very well are high, but the chances of neither guy lasting that long seem to be relatively high.

McCullers has an electric arm, but, like most stuff guys, injuries are a problem. He was limited to 118.2 innings of work this season after throwing just 81 innings last season. He posted a 4.25 ERA with a 3.10 FIP and a 3.17 xFIP. His 67.6 percent LOB% was the culprit in regards to his ERA being a full run higher than his FIP and xFIP. He also had a .330 BABIP against.

McCullers has swing-and-miss upside. When the Yankees don’t strike out a ton, they have been extremely effective in these playoffs. When they do strike out a lot, their offense has not been able to string together enough runs or pick out enough mistakes. It sounds obvious, but the Yankees struck out 10 times against Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander in the first two games of this series. They struck out a ton in Game 1, Game 3, and Game 5 of the ALDS and only scored six runs over those three games.

Before we get all excited about the Yankees’ offensive breakout in Game 3, let’s look at how the inning went for Charlie Morton in the second:

Starlin Castro single 57.7 mph exit velo; 10% hit probability

Aaron Hicks single 73.8 mph exit velo; 70% hit probability

Todd Frazier HR 100.5 mph exit velo; 55% hit probability

And Charlie Morton in the fourth:

Greg Bird double 78.3 mph exit velo; 4% hit probability (not a typo)

Chase Headley single 88.4 mph exit velo; 12% hit probability

When the night was all said and done, the Yankees only barreled one ball, which was the Aaron Judge nail in the coffin for the night. They had three hits on batted balls that had a hit probability below 15 percent. Not all offensive performances are created equal. This speaks to the volatility of batted balls.

This isn’t a knock on New York’s offense, which is great. It is, however a cautionary tale to get too excited about one game in which variance played a huge part in the equation. Those two home runs very easily could have been solo home runs given how the innings were set up. We’re talking about six runs in two swings.

Sonny Gray hasn’t pitched since October 5 and he only worked 3.1 innings in that start. He was not sharp at all. I postulated with a couple buddies that Gray has never felt comfortable throwing to Gary Sanchez because everything he throws goes down in the zone and Sanchez is a poor receiver. It seemed to affect him negatively in Game 1, when he allowed three runs on three hits with four walks, a hit-by-pitch, a wild pitch, and only two strikeouts. Gray’s arsenal is pretty good, but he hasn’t been solid with the Yankees. In his 11 starts, Gray’s strikeout rate went down and his walk rate went up. From being behind in the count more, coupled with the park factor change, Gray’s HR/FB% went up.

I’m selling my Gray stock. I don’t think sitting around for 12 days is good for any pitcher at this point. The Yankees warmed up Chad Green twice yesterday, warmed up Aroldis Chapman, and still had to use Tommy Kahnle with an 8-0 lead. They also found out that Dellin Betances isn’t really an option.

Houston is having issues swinging the bats in this series, which isn’t a big surprise because the Yankees have a lot of high-velocity, swing-and-miss arms. I think this is a good matchup for the Astros and they know Gray very well from his days with Oakland.

I’m playing the Astros today if the price is right. I’m hoping to catch them as a small plus money dog with the concerns about McCullers.

Los Angeles at Chicago (-115) (Total 8 )

Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks are the slated starters for Game 3 at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have to be happy to get home. After an emotional Game 5 win in D.C., the travel out to Los Angeles was very difficult with a prolonged stop on the tarmac in Albuquerque to tend to an ailing member of the traveling party. Two losses later, the series is back in the Windy City.

If I may bitch and complain for a moment, Joe Maddon seriously disappointed me last game. I thought he was a dude that gets it. Saying that he was holding Wade Davis back for a save infuriates me. Davis isn’t the pitcher he once was, as the workload seems to be weighing on him, but losing that game without using Davis is criminal. I’m starting to believe that there are no good managers out there. None of these guys have a concept of game theory. They shun win probability and run expectancy to cling to outdated beliefs.

Perhaps it’s too easy for me since I don’t have personal relationships with any of the players. Being a manager is part psychologist part decision-maker. The decision-making part is a struggle for pretty much all of them out there. That’s the most important part. Anyway, Maddon paid for it, as well he should have. If he was protecting Davis’s arm or protecting his player for being a bit worn down, then you can make a case. If neither of those things are true, Wade Davis should be in that game. Especially over John f’in Lackey, who had NEVER worked back-to-back days in his career.

Now, the concerns have grown exponentially for the Cubs. They lost to Clayton Kershaw and lost a winnable game 2. They’ll face Yu Darvish, who has an elite arsenal. Darvish was having some periodic issues before the trade and right around the trade, but he fixed things and has gone back to being an elite arm. He had a 3.44 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and a 3.19 xFIP in his nine starts with the Dodgers. He saw some BABIP regression, which was a bit of a surprise, but his strikeout rate bounced back and his walk rate went back down. In all, Darvish struck out 209 and walked 58 in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. The arsenal looks crisper and sharper and he’s had plenty of time to sit around and wait after throwing five innings of one-run ball in the NLDS. He struck out seven and was held to around 75 pitches.

I fully expected Kyle Hendricks to have success against Washington in the NLDS. I talked about how the Nationals were one of the worst lineups in baseball against changeups and Hendricks’s best offering is that pitch. In 11 innings, Hendricks allowed four runs on 11 hits with 13 strikeouts against four walks. The Dodgers were a top-seven offense against changeups per Pitch Info Solutions and third per Fangraphs’s linear pitch type weight calculations. The Dodgers have a great offspeed hitting lineup. They were also among the league leaders against curveballs.

To me, this means that they probably had good success against slower fastballs. Hendricks wouldn’t get a speeding ticket in Texas with his fastball. The hard part for me is that I generally love these command dudes in the playoffs because I find them to be underrated. They don’t have the big names or the big arms, but have the biggest balls and can keep hitters off-balance in these high-leverage situations.

I don’t think Hendricks gets totally rocked, but I think his margin for error going up against Darvish is low. A start with three or four earned over five or six innings could put the Cubs in a seriously bad spot. Not to mention, the bullpen gap between these two teams is just staggering at this point. Chicago’s overworked, overused bullpen has not been nearly as effective as it needs to be. The Dodgers bullpen has been virtually untouchable. It is a huge edge for the Dodgers.

I’m looking for the Dodgers to take control of the series tonight. If a line was up for the total, I’d have some more thoughts for you, but I would think this game has the potential to be a little bit higher-scoring than the first two games.

Cubs host Dodgers in must-win Game 3
StatFox.com

The Dodgers will be looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead when they take on the Cubs on Tuesday.

The Dodgers won on a walk-off homer in Game 2, and they now have a 2-0 lead in this series against the defending World Series champs. Los Angeles does, however, know that this is when the series gets hard, as it will not be easy for the Dodgers to go into Wrigley Field and take a win here. The Cubs are still one of the better teams in baseball and know that they can get back into this series by coming away with a win on Tuesday. Their backs are against the wall, but they’ve also been there before. Last year, the Cubs came back from a 3-1 series deficit to defeat the Indians in the World Series. That has prepared them for pretty much any situation moving forward. The starters in this Tuesday night game are going to be RHP Yu Darvish (1-0, 1.80 ERA, 7 K in one postseason start) for Los Angeles and RHP Kyle Hendricks (1-0, 3.27 ERA, 13 K in two postseason starts) for Chicago. Both guys have done some good work in the playoffs, so it wouldn’t be shocking if this game were to be a pitcher’s duel.

The Dodgers have a chance to essentially put this series away with a victory on Tuesday and Yu Darvish is the guy that will need to put the team on his back in this one. Darvish did just that in his first postseason start for Los Angeles, as he allowed just one earned run in five innings of work in a 3-1 victory over the Diamondbacks in Game 3 last series. Darvish struck out seven batters in that game and the Dodgers would certainly take another performance exactly like that one here. It will, however, be tough against a Cubs team that knows that a win on Tuesday is an absolute must. On offense, the Dodgers will need some of the usual suspects to come through at the plate here. That means that guys like 3B Justin Turner, OF Cody Bellinger, and OF Yasiel Puig will need to step their games up here. Turner should be counted on pretty heavily in this one, and he has shown that he is able to handle it. He is the one that hit the walk-off homer in Game 2 and his confidence is through the roof right now.

The Cubs can’t afford to lose this Game 3 on Tuesday night, so expect their stars to show up here. The one guy that absolutely must be at his best here is Hendricks, who struggled a bit in Game 5 last series. Hendricks allowed four earned runs in four innings against the Nationals in that game, but his team was able to pick him up and help them win the game. Hendricks knows that he can’t leave it to chance again, though. He will need to pitch a lot more like he did in Game 1 against Washington, as he allowed no earned runs in seven innings of work in that game. It wouldn’t be surprising if he were to match that outing, as he seemingly is at his best under pressure. And on offense, 1B Anthony Rizzo and 3B Kris Bryant are the guys that must do some damage at the plate here. If they can’t produce some runs then it’s hard to imagine the Cubs moving on.

NLCS Game 3 Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs

Odds: L.A. (+101), Chicago (-111); Total 8

The 2017 NLCS shifts over to the Windy City of Chicago for the next few days and the Chicago Cubs are looking to get back into this series down 0-2. The Cubs don't have too look further than what the Yankees did in Game 3 of the ALCS last night as their 2-0 series deficit was basically old news by the time the fifth inning of Game 3 was played with New York up 8-0.

No matter how the job gets done, Chicago is in one of those “must-win” spots tonight, because given how good the Dodgers have been all year, beating them four in a row is not a situation with a high likelihood of success.

Although they are down 0-2 in the series, the Cubs have to like how their rotation set up for this “must-win” spot in Game 3. Starter Kyle Hendricks gets the ball this evening and he is the manager Joe Maddon prefers to trot out there in big games. When Chicago had the ability to set up their rotation in their desired order for the NLDS, it was Hendricks who got the ball in Games 1 and 5 (both Cubs wins), and outside of those struggles in a wild Game 5 of the NLDS, Hendricks is a guy who's been the model of consistency for Maddon and the Cubs for months.

The numbers may not always tell that story, but when he's considered the “ace” in Maddon's eyes as nearly all Game 1 starters for MLB teams in the first round of the playoffs, the Cubs have to be confident they can get into the win column tonight for the first time in the NLCS.

Hendricks is opposed by Yu Darvish for L.A., and after some ups and downs since coming to the Dodgers, Darvish was spectacular in L.A.'s Game 3 win over Arizona to close out that series. Darvish allowed just two hits and struck out seven in that 3-1 win and was probably pulled a little earlier than necessary given the situation. That is the type of performance L.A. expected from Darvish when they acquired him, and while he rarely did that in the regular season for them, showing up in the playoffs is much more important.

It's because of that dominant performance by Darvish, and Hendricks rough start in Game 5 of the NLDS, that we've already seen a bit of action on tonight's game come the Dodgers way. Chicago opened up in the -120 range, but it looks as though early bettors have more faith in Darvish and this Dodgers team to put a stranglehold on this series tonight.

After all, it's the Dodgers who have more pressure on them this year with their “World Series or bust” mentality, and having a 2-0 series lead cut in half and potentially tied up 24 hours later would only make those whispers of this being the “same old Dodgers, choking in the LCS” grow even louder. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but the defending champion Cubs aren't going to go down without a fight and I believe it's a mistake to be against them this evening.

In today's “what have you done for me lately” world, I get why it's the Dodgers getting action here, but this Cubs team earned their stripes a year ago being down in October, and just like the Yankees last night, Chicago can't hold anything back tonight. Darvish may have looked unhittable in Arizona, but we can't forget about all the struggles he had for L.A. prior to that as his control can waiver in a big way at times.

L.A. is just 6-4 SU as a team with Darvish on the hill (including his 1-0 record in the postseason), and if he struggles with his command early, this Cubs lineup won't have any issue in making him pay. Chicago is 19-7 SU in their last 26 at home, and with a 36-15 SU run going after a day off, yesterday's travel day had to help Chicago more in terms of getting rest – they hadn't really since prior to Game 4 of the NLDS – and regrouping.

This is also the first time in this series that the Cubs get to see a righty after facing southpaws Kershaw and Hill in Games 1 and 2, and their 16-5 SU run at home vs righties is nothing to overlook. With Hendricks on the hill the Cubs have to be confident defensively that they'll be able to keep L.A.'s attack at bay, and with L.A.'s history of coming up short in the LCS round, the Dodgers 1-10 SU record in their last 11 on the road in this round of the playoffs might start to play in the minds of this Dodgers team if they get down early.

For as good as the Dodgers are, they aren't without their flaws, and baseball fans definitely know that from watching their massive struggles in August and early September. You could argue that part of the reason for L.A.'s tumble during that part of the year was because there was no intensity with nothing really left to play for until the playoffs, but it does speak to the potential inability for these Dodgers to put their foot on the opponents neck and close things out when needed. Going up 3-0 would essentially have the Dodgers wrapping this thing up and moving on to their goal of the 2017 World Series eventually, but I'm not ready to back that happening yet.

Tonight's game is going to be all about the defending champion Chicago Cubs getting off the mat and trying to make this a series again. Heck, even just putting a bit of water on that seed of doubt in the Dodgers minds with a win in Game 3 could end up being just the thing to spark a Cubs comeback in this series.

Best Bet: Chicago -111