MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, October 15th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
CHICAGO CUBS (95 - 73) at LA DODGERS (108 - 58) - 7:35 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. RICH HILL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 95-73 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 34-35 (-9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LESTER is 0-6 (-9.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday this season. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 76-32 (+26.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
LA DODGERS are 39-13 (+19.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 187-111 (+38.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
LESTER is 32-10 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 144-104 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 5-2 (+3.2 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)
JON LESTER vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
LESTER is 3-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.29 and a WHIP of 1.043.
His team's record is 5-4 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-3. (+2.9 units)
RICH HILL vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
HILL is 1-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.667.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.3 units)
CHI CUBS vs. LA DODGERS
Chi Cubs are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games
Chi Cubs are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
LA Dodgers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
CHI CUBS @ LA DODGERS
Chi Cubs is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Chi Cubs is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
StatFox Super Situations
CHICAGO CUBS at LA DODGERS
Play On - Any team (CHICAGO CUBS) good offensive team (>=4.7 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games 83-63 over the last 5 seasons. ( 56.8% | 24.6 units ) 34-38 this year. ( 47.2% | -6.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
CHICAGO CUBS at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 32-5 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in Home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The average score was: LA DODGERS (5.5) , OPPONENT (2.9)
MLB Playoffs
Cubs @ Dodgers
Dodgers are 5-2 vs Chicago this season; they shut Cubs out in 3 of the 5 wins. Home team won six of seven series games (under 6-1). Cubs scored 6 runs in four games in LA this season.
Lester threw 55 pitches in relief in Wednesday’s game; he is 2-0, 1.06 in his last three starts. His last eight starts went over the total. Cubs are 8-7 in his road starts this season. Lester is 0-1, 6.75 in two starts against the Dodgers this season; he is 9-7, 2.57 in 24 career playoff games (20 starts).
Hill is 3-0, 1.64 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Dodgers are 9-6 in his home starts. Hill hasn’t pitched against the Cubs this season; he is 1-2, 4.50 in five career starts in the playoffs, the first of which was for the Cubs in 2007.
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's NLCS Playoff Betting Preview: Cubs at Dodgers
Covers.com
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD -150, 7.5)
After going all-in to close out the National League Division Series and facing Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of the NL Championship Series, the Chicago Cubs figured they might be in this position. The Los Angeles Dodgers can keep the defending World Series champions on the ropes with another victory at home on Sunday.
Albert Almora Jr. gave the Cubs a 2-0 lead in the opener with a two-run blast off Kershaw in the fourth inning, but he wound up being the team’s last baserunner. Kershaw retired the final six batters he faced and the Dodgers’ bullpen set down 12 straight to close out a 5-2 victory. Chicago's bats need to bounce back against veteran Rich Hill, who was drafted by the Cubs and went 18-17 with a 4.37 ERA over his first four major-league seasons with the club from 2005-08. The Dodgers have belted five home runs while winning their first four playoff games and will try to keep it going against Jon Lester, who is slated to start on three days’ rest after an extended relief outing in Game 4 of the NLDS against Washington.
INJURY REPORT:
Cubs - RP Koji Uehara (Out Indefinitely, Knee).
Dodgers - SS Corey Seager (Out Indefinitely, Back), 1B Adrian Gonzalez (Out For Season, Back), RP Adam Liberatore (Out For Season, Forearm), LF Franklin Gutierrez (Out For Season, Spine), SP Scott Kazmir (Out Indefinitely, Hip), RP Yimi Garcia (Out For Season, Elbow).
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (13-8, 4.33 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Rich Hill (12-8, 3.32)
Lester was outstanding in one start and one relief appearance in the NLDS, allowing two runs and three hits over 9 2/3 innings. The 33-year-old is the active leader in postseason innings pitched with 143 1/3 and owns a 9-7 record and 2.57 ERA in 24 playoff appearances (20 starts). Lester is 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA in seven career regular-season starts against the Dodgers and went 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts in last year’s NLCS matchup.
Hill started Game 2 of the NLDS against Arizona, allowing two runs and three hits over four innings of a no-decision. The 37-year-old is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in five career postseason starts. Hill has made only one relief appearance against his former team in the regular season, but he limited the Cubs to two hits over six scoreless innings of a win in Game 3 of last year’s NLCS.
TRENDS:
* Cubs are 1-8 in their last 9 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Dodgers are 8-0 in Hills last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
* Over is 10-1 in Lesters last 11 starts overall.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Dodgers last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cubs are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Dodgers at a rate of 54 percent and the Over is picking up 69 percent of the totals action.
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Chicago at Los Angeles (-150); Total: 7.5
A couple of southpaws square off for the second straight night in the NLCS. Yesterday we had Clayton Kershaw and Jose Quintana. Today we’ll see Jon Lester and Rich Hill. There were a lot of questions about how Joe Maddon would set up his rotation for this round after he had to use some of his starters in relief and after Game 4 was pushed back a day due to rain. Given the tricky spot, Quintana pitched well and matched Kershaw, so the Cubs had a chance to steal Game 1. They didn’t, as the bullpen faltered. John Lackey worked 1.2 innings in relief to save the pen, so he isn’t a Game 2 option.
That means that the start goes to Jon Lester. Lester worked 9.2 innings in the NLDS with his Game 2 start and a relief appearance in Game 4 on Wednesday night. He’s going on something of short rest here after throwing 3.2 innings in that game. He allowed one run on one hit with three strikeouts and a walk. He threw 55 pitches, so it will be interesting to see how Maddon handles him today with a bullpen already in need of a respite. This was a lot more than a normal side session, with a lot more pitches and a lot more high-stress pitches. Lester has allowed just two runs on three hits in these playoffs with a 5/3 K/BB ratio.
The biggest concerns about Lester carry over from the regular season. He posted a 4.33 ERA with a 4.10 FIP and a 3.85 xFIP. He allowed a SLG over .450 in each of July, August, and September, so his command clearly wasn’t sharp. In September, he had a 25/14 K/BB ratio, which tied for his lowest strikeout output in a month and tied for his highest walk output in a month for the 2017 campaign. I’m a bit worried about where he is physically and pitching without the ability to do his normal recovery stuff is a big red flag in this spot to me.
Rich Hill hung a 3.32 ERA with a 3.72 FIP and a 3.88 xFIP in his 135.2 innings during the regular season. He did what we would expect from Hill, with a high-strikeout rate and a lot of weak contact on balls in play. That being said, Hill did have some home run issues this season. He allowed 18 long balls after giving up just four in 110.1 innings in 2016. Between Hill and Kershaw, the Dodgers had some guys with some uncharacteristic HR/FB% spikes. That could be an issue today against a Cubs lineup that has been swinging the bats pretty well for the most part.
There are a lot of concerns with the Cubs in this game, though. Their tumultuous flight from Washington to LA could have a carryover effect into today. Their flight was delayed several hours in Albuquerque because of a health emergency for a family member in the traveling party. The late travel and the lack of a travel day in the DS could really have a detrimental effect with the team. The one silver lining is that this game is at 4:30 local time, so it isn’t some sort of really late start like it could be during the regular season. Lester is a worry, but so is this Cubs bullpen. Mike Montgomery has been a non-factor, leaving the Cubs down one of their multi-inning options. At least some guys got a blow yesterday, but Lackey was used, so the Cubs are really going to have to cobble this thing together if Lester struggles early.
The Dodgers have numerous multi-inning options in the pen and had several days off to rest arms.
The choice is pretty clear for me today. I’ll be laying it with the Dodgers. I also think that investing in a piece of the over is a reasonable idea. Lester’s season wasn’t all that impressive and he’s pitching under some suboptimal circumstances. Hill had that HR/FB% problem and the Cubs have some good power in the order. I prefer the Dodgers to the total, but this could be a game that bucks the LCS trend thus far and goes over the number.