Notifications
Clear all

MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 14th, 2017

5 Posts
1 Users
0 Likes
1,398 Views
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, October 14th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : October 14, 2017 9:45 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

MLB Playoffs

New York @ Houston
Astros are 6-2 against New York this season, winning 3 of 4 at home.

Severino is 4-0, 3.38 in his last seven starts; over is 4-1 in his last five starts. New York won his last six road starts, but his last road start was Sept 9. Severino is 0-1, 10.56 in two starts against the Astros this season. He is 1-0, 7.37 in two playoff starts.

Verlander is 6-0, 1.35 in six starts for the Astros, last three of which went over; he also got the win in relief in Game of the NLDS Monday (2.2 IP). Houston is 3-0 in his home starts. Verlander hasn’t pitched against NY this season; he is 9-5, 3.36 in 18 career playoff games (17 starts).

Cubs @ Dodgers
Dodgers are 4-2 vs Chicago this season; they shut Cubs out in 3 of the 4 wins. Home team won five of six series games (under 5-1). Cubs scored 4 runs in three games in LA this season.

Quintana is 2-0, 2.37 in his last six starts; he threw 12 pitches in relief Thursday. Under is 4-2 in his last six starts. Cubs are 3-3 in his road starts- he didn’t pitch against the Dodgers this year. He allowed one unearned run in 5.2 IP in his only playoff start.

Kershaw is 2-1, 4.44 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Dodgers are 13-2 in his home starts this season. He allowed 4 runs in 4.2 IP against the Cubs May 28. Kershaw is 5-7, 4.63 in 19 career playoff games (15 starts).

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : October 14, 2017 9:46 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

New York at Houston (-130); Total: 7.5

The most important trait a pitcher can possess is good command. We saw that on Friday night. Dallas Keuchel is not overpowering, but he does what he does extremely well and struck out 10 Yankees over seven innings and the bullpen did the rest to pitch the Astros to a 2-1 win. Masahiro Tanaka didn’t have the same swing-and-miss attribute as Keuchel, but he still scattered four hits over six innings and was a tough-luck loser. Tanaka was very efficient with just 89 pitches over those six frames, so both bullpens are in good shape as we head into Game 2.

The Astros were 2-for-4 with runners in scoring position. The Yankees were 1-for-5. The Astros won 2-1. Funny how that works. These playoff games generally come down to variance in four or five key plate appearances. The Yankees didn’t even score a run with their one hit with RISP. Their lone run came on a solo dinger in the ninth.

Anyway, we look ahead to Game 2. It’ll be Luis Severino for the Yankees. Severino was awful in the Wild Card Game against the Twins, but was dazzling in Game 4 against the Indians. Severino sits in the 98 mph range with his fastball and that will be the big matchup in this game. Indians hitters, despite being a great contact-oriented lineup, were overmatched. The Astros had a lower K% than the Indians during the season, so we’ll have to see how all of this plays out. The right-hander had a 2.98 ERA with a 3.07 FIP and a 3.04 xFIP in his 193.1 innings during the regular season.

As I wrote about in my series preview, which is still relevant as we go throughout the series, the Astros mauled fastballs this season, but Severino was up among the top five in average fastball velocity and was the only starter to be up there. Not all fastballs are created equal, as we know. Given the body of work for Severino, I have to assume that he has success today, even against a team that can really swing it.

Justin Verlander has been such an outstanding fit for the Astros. He made five regular season starts with a 1.06 ERA, a 2.69 FIP, and a 2.94 xFIP. He struck out 43 and walked five in 34 innings. He worked 8.2 innings in the Division Series and didn’t look nearly as good. He had a 3.12 ERA, but he walked four and only struck out three out of his 34 batters faced. He did work in relief and that was some new territory for him. I’m not really worried about the small sample of the last round.

This will be a really interesting matchup. Verlander works up with a fastball that has one of the best spin rates in the game. He also works down with a breaking ball. We saw Yankee hitters have a lot of issues with pitches that were down in the zone against the Indians. Lots of changeups and curveballs led to success. Verlander works up in the zone, so this may end up being a better matchup for New York. I’ve been a big proponent of the Verlander move, but I am curious to see if his arsenal matches up as well with the Yankees as it has with other teams. Obviously Dallas Keuchel worked down in the zone a ton and had great success.

I’d have to look at the underdog here, and not just as a numbers grab, but as a true position. Chad Green worked two innings in Game 1. The rest of the Yankees bullpen had the night off after a long series against Cleveland. All arms will be at the ready. If you’re going to lose Game 1, at least the Yankees did it in a way that will help them going forward. I think the dog is a very good look today.

Chicago at Los Angeles

No line is out for Game 1 between the Cubs and Dodgers today. The Cubs still haven’t named a starter. We know that it will be either Jose Quintana or John Lackey, so let’s break both of those guys down. It will be Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers.

I think it is an interesting decision for the Cubs today. Normally, if we had regular season Clayton Kershaw, you’d probably consider Lackey to give Quintana an extra day of rest and set him up against Rich Hill tomorrow. But, playoff Kershaw has been a different animal and stealing Game 1 and burning up a Kershaw start in the process would decidedly swing the win probability balance in this series. I’m not sure which way Joe Maddon will go, but Lackey is clearly the freshest starting arm that he has.

Let’s say that it is Quintana. He posted a 3.74 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP in his 14 starts with the Cubs. His strikeout rate rose and his walk rate sunk. Those are two things that we would expect to see with any AL to NL move, so it wasn’t a big surprise, but it did make Quintana an even better pitcher. As outstanding as Quintana has been in his career, his start last series was his first playoff start in his career. He also worked a game in relief last series. Quintana did not allow an earned run across 6.1 innings against the Nationals with seven strikeouts against two walks. The Dodgers really improved their splits against lefties this season and finished fifth in wOBA at .337. They were fourth in wRC+ at 109. Quintana is a bit better than most lefties, though.

There are two concerns about Lackey getting the nod. The first is that he isn’t very good. The second is that you put your bullpen in a very compromising position if he goes out and struggles early. Lackey posted a 4.59 ERA with a 5.30 FIP and a 4.62 xFIP on the season. His K% dropped and his walk rate went up. The biggest thing is that his HR/FB% ballooned to 18.2 percent. Dodger Stadium may suppress that a little bit, but he’s still a dangerous starter to trot out for a variety of reasons here.

My guess is that the Cubs go with Quintana. He’d be my choice because I’d try to do everything I could to protect that bullpen in Game 1. The Dodgers haven’t played in a few days, so I’d throw my best choice out there to see if I could prey on how they’ve been sitting around pondering how high their expectations are this postseason.

Clayton Kershaw owns a 2.36 ERA with a 2.60 FIP and a 2.92 xFIP in 1,935 career regular season innings. In 95.1 postseason innings, he has a 4.63 ERA with a 3.63 FIP and a 3.23 xFIP. Here’s why I hate the Kershaw narrative. In the playoffs, his LOB% is 63.9 percent. That would have been the lowest in the league in the regular season this year and in most seasons. This is in spite of a 28.7 percent K% in the playoffs for Kershaw, which is above his career regular season mark. The biggest issue for Kershaw is that his playoff HR/FB% is 14.3 percent, compared to 7.8 percent in the regular season.

One thing that does worry me here is that Kershaw looked moderately human this season and it was because of a 15.9 percent HR/FB%. Kershaw already allowed four home runs in his start against the Diamondbacks. For whatever reason, his command drops off significantly in the playoffs.

If you’ll allow me to speculate, I think that if the Cubs go with Quintana this line opens in the -200 range. If the Cubs go with Lackey, it will probably open in the -240 range. Total with Quintana would probably be 7.5 and 8 with Lackey.

I can’t be upset with anybody that wants to fade playoff Kershaw. I think variance is mostly to blame in the small sample size, but the gopher ball issue appears to be a real thing. The Cubs offense has been the best in baseball since the All-Star Break, so it isn’t like Kershaw draws an easy assignment here.

Lastly, I do want to point this out. A member of the Cubs traveling party had a medical emergency and the flight was diverted to Albuquerque to get that family member some help. The Cubs sat on the plane for a long time on the tarmac. Perhaps it brings the team together, though we don’t know the nature of the medical issue and it was shortly after the Cubs won over the Nationals, so there were likely some dudes not feeling real great from the postgame libations. It creates a tough situational spot this deep into the season. I’m not sure what tangible impact it has, though it could have a carryover to Game 2 that may be worth playing against, especially if we do get a Lackey start.

 
Posted : October 14, 2017 9:51 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Saturday's MLB Championship Series Betting Preview
Covers.com

New York Yankees at Houston Astros (-135, 7.5)

The Houston Astros won a pitchers' duel to open the American League Championship Series and will turn to their hottest arm in Game 2 of the best-of-seven set against the visiting New York Yankees on Saturday. Dallas Keuchel continued his career-long dominance of the Yankees with 10 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings in Friday's 2-1 victory in Game 1.

Jose Altuve recorded three hits, stole a base and scored a run as he improved to 11-for-19 with four walks this postseason. Including the playoffs, Justin Verlander is 7-0 with a 1.48 ERA in seven games (six starts) since being acquired from Detroit and is 4-0 with a 2.82 mark in his career at Minute Maid Park as he enters his Game 2 start. Verlander never has faced young sluggers Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird, whose solo blast with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning accounted for all of New York's offense on Friday. The Yankees will turn to ace Luis Severino, who bounced back from a brutal start in the wild-card game to stymie Cleveland over seven frames on Monday in the AL Division Series.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Luis Severino (1-0, 7.36 ERA) vs. Astros RH Justin Verlander (2-0, 3.12)

Severino allowed three runs and four hits - two homers - while striking out nine Indians in his Game 3 victory, which helped turn the tide in that series. He was hit hard in two regular-season meetings with the Astros, allowing nine runs and 15 hits in 11 2/3 frames, and has had his issues with Carlos Correa (3-for-4, two doubles and two walks), Yuli Gurriel (4-for-5, one double) and Marwin Gonzalez (2-for-5, one home run). The 23-year-old posted a 0.89 ERA over his last six road starts during the regular season and finished 6-1 with a 2.24 ERA away from home.

Verlander has won each of his two outings this postseason, including 2 2/3-inning relief appearance in the decisive Game 4 win over Boston in the ALDS. The 34-year-old has posted a 3.55 ERA in five career starts in the ALCS, including an eight-inning outing in which he allowed one run and struck out 10 in his last such outing against the Red Sox in 2013. Verlander will be wary of Todd Frazier (5-for-17, two homers) and Didi Gregorius (2-for-6, one homer, one double), but he should go right after Aaron Hicks (0-for-9, four strikeouts).

TRENDS:

* Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 League Championship games.
* Astros are 6-0 in Verlanders last 6 starts.
* Over is 9-1 in Severinos last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
* Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 playoff games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Astros with 66 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing 63 percent of the totals wagers.

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (-200, 7)

The team with the best record in the majors this season meets the defending World Series champions when the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs clash in the National League Championship Series, beginning Saturday in Los Angeles. The series is a rematch from last year when the Cubs dispatched the Dodgers in six games as second baseman Javier Baez and left-hander Jon Lester shared MVP honors.

Chicago is in the NLCS for the third straight season after prevailing over the Washington Nationals in a five-game NL Division Series while the Dodgers recorded a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks. "I thought we caught our stride at the right part of the season, meaning August, September, it really came together for us," Cubs manager Joe Maddon said at Friday's press conference. "Right now we're playing with that same kind of mental acumen and edge that I've seen the last two years." Los Angeles is hoping ace left-hander Clayton Kershaw can get it off to a good start as the team aims to earn its first World Series berth since 1988. Kershaw's spotty postseason history is well known - he is 5-7 with a 4.63 ERA in 19 appearances (15 starts) - but he had a 3.00 ERA while splitting two decisions against the Cubs in last season's NLCS.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs TBA vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 5.68 ERA)

Maddon indicated he was deciding between left-hander Jose Quintana and right-hander John Lackey for the Game 1 start. Quintana allowed one unearned run and three hits over 6 1/3 innings in two appearances (one start) during the NLDS, while Lackey didn't pitch in the series and last started a game on Sept. 27. The edge Quintana has is being able to neutralize the left-handed Los Angeles hitters while the 38-year-old Lackey has an extensive postseason resume that includes an 8-6 record and 3.27 ERA in 26 career appearances (23 starts).

Kershaw beat the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL Division Series but served up four solo homers while allowing five hits in 6 1/3 innings. The 29-year-old is one of the top pitchers of his era and badly wants to see the club's long Fall Classic jinx conclude. "We want to go to the World Series," Kershaw said at Friday's press conference. "We didn't get to do that last year, and the Cubs were the reason why. No doubt about it, we know that."

TRENDS:

* Cubs are 14-3 in their last 17 during game 1 of a series.
* Dodgers are 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Dodgers are 45-9 in Kershaws last 54 starts.
* Dodgers are 5-1 in Kershaws last 6 home starts vs. Cubs.
* Under is 9-2 in Kershaws last 11 starts vs. Cubs.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning heavy on the home chalk Dodgers with 71 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing 53 percent of the totals wagers.

 
Posted : October 14, 2017 12:30 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Saturday's NLCS Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Chicago Cubs vs. L.A. Dodgers

Odds: Chicago (+178), L.A. (-190); Total 7

After knocking off the Washington Nationals in a wild Game 5 of the NLDS, the Chicago Cubs hit their third different city in four days to begin their NLCS series with the L.A. Dodgers. This is a rematch of the 2016 NLCS that saw Chicago win 4-2, but this time around it's the Dodgers who have got home field advantage and have been the more dominant team throughout the majority of 2017 campaign. You'll hear a lot of talk about “playoff revenge” throughout this series no matter how it starts to shape up, but the road weary Chicago Cubs might find themselves playing from behind in the NLCS this time around.

Not only does this Cubs team have to deal with all those air miles they've logged recently tonight, this game also being in the third different time zone in those four days, but they've got to try and solve one of the best pitchers in the game in Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw gets the nod for L.A. in Game 1 as everyone expected, as it was actually him who started Game 6 of the NLDS a season ago when the Dodgers were eliminated. Playoff revenge may not be as big a thing as some may suggest, but there is no chance Kershaw has forgotten about how he felt that day in coming up short.

These two teams met six times during the 2017 regular season and this time it was L.A. who came out on top by a 4-2 margin. L.A. shut out the Cubs in three of those four wins – including two consecutive games during a three-game sweep at home of Chicago – but oddly enough the only game between these two during the regular season that cashed an 'over' ticket was the lone time Kershaw started. That was a 9-4 win by L.A. to complete their sweep at home and the Dodgers lefty only lasted 4.1 innings in one of his shortest outings of the year.

Three Cubs – Baez, Rizzo and Contreras - took Kershaw deep that day, and we saw in the NLDS against Arizona that Kershaw still has a few issues with giving up the longball. Most of the time they don't do much damage as they are solo shots, but if this Cubs team can work some counts, get a guy or two on before one of those blasts leaves the yard, it might be deja vu for Kershaw and the Dodgers again tonight.

The other good news for the Cubs tonight is the fact that they are starting a guy in Jose Quintana who the Dodgers hitters haven't seen much of before and wasn't around for any of those previous six meetings this year. Quintana has been just what the Cubs hoped for in acquiring him, and trotting him out there in Game 1 suggests that Chicago is looking for the same things that plagued the Dodgers in 2016 – hitting lefties – plagues them again in the 2017 NLDS.

Numbers-wise, L.A. made huge leaps in hitting left-handed pitching this year, but it did rear it's ugly head a bit in August and September when L.A. was going through their brutal struggles. Quintana's lack of history with L.A. hitters will give him the advantage early on, but after that things start to look bleak for Chicago in Game 1.

For one, there is the fatigue and travel they are dealing with. Not only have they been to three different cities and time zones during the past four days, the mental switch these guys have to have to go from the intense action of Games 4 and 5 vs Washington to now a Game 1 against a Dodgers team that's been off for nearly a week will be tough to overcome initially.

Secondly, when you were shut out in three of your four losses vs L.A. this year, that suggests that the Dodgers bullpen has your number this time around, so even if Kershaw does struggle and give up a HR or two, L.A.'s bullpen will be there to have his back. Chicago didn't win in this ballpark in 2017, and simply put there is just too much working against them tonight. I'm not usually one to lay a big number, but L.A. has been waiting in the wings and (likely) hoping they got another crack at the Cubs this year.

L.A. has seemingly everything in their favor for Game 1 (rest, Kershaw, a hot offense) and it's almost a must they jump out to a 1-0 series lead otherwise all those stories about L.A. coming up short yet again will start from the media already. The Dodgers have to feel like their time is now and whether or not that holds true for the entire NLCS remains to be seen, but I'm laying the chalk with them here in Game 1.

Best Bet: Los Angeles -190

 
Posted : October 14, 2017 1:21 pm
Share: