MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, October 12th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
CHICAGO CUBS (94 - 72) at WASHINGTON (99 - 67) - 8:05 PM
KYLE HENDRICKS (R) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 94-72 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 33-34 (-9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 71-37 (+20.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 186-111 (+37.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 24-25 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-5 (+1.2 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.7 Units)
KYLE HENDRICKS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HENDRICKS is 3-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP of 1.018.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.5 units)
GIO GONZALEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
GONZALEZ is 3-3 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.095.
His team's record is 5-6 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-5. (-1.2 units)
CHI CUBS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chi Cubs's last 15 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 15 games when playing Chi Cubs
CHI CUBS @ WASHINGTON
Chi Cubs is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
StatFox Super Situations
CHICAGO CUBS at WASHINGTON
Play On - Any team (WASHINGTON) very good offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games 130-78 since 1997. ( 62.5% | 50.5 units ) 10-10 this year. ( 50.0% | -2.8 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | CHICAGO CUBS at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 34-18 (+16.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The average score was: WASHINGTON (5.6) , OPPONENT (4.3)
MLB Knowledge
Chicago @ Washington
Washington is 6-5 against the Cubs this season (over 6-5).
Hendricks is 2-0, 0.70 in his last four starts; his last six starts stayed under. Cubs are 6-6 in his road starts. He is 1-1, 1.93 vs Washington this season, 2-1, 1.39 in six postseason starts.
Gonzalez is 0-2, 7.54 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four starts. Washington is 8-8 in his home starts. Gonzalez is 0-0, 4.24 in five postseason starts.
Cubs won the World Series LY, their first title since 1908; this is their 3rd year in a row in the playoffs. Washington is in the playoffs for 4th time in six years- they lost in this round the previous three times. Nationals have never been in the World Series.
Armadillosports.com
Nats host Cubs Thursday
By: StatFox.com
A spot in the NLCS will be on the line when the Nationals host the Cubs on Thursday.
Chicago had a chance to end this series at Wrigley Field on Game 4, but Washington had other plans. The Nationals took a 1-0 lead on an error by the Cubs early and Stephen Strasburg controlled the game from there. The righty pitched seven innings of shutout ball, striking out a ridiculous 12 batters in the process. The Cubs will now need to win this series on the road, which is obviously not going to be easy. Chicago is, however, going to have the edge on the mound in this one. The Cubs are sending their ace to the hill here, as RHP Kyle Hendricks (7-5, 3.03 ERA, 123 K) is going to be taking the ball. He’s exactly the guy that Chicago will want on the mound, and Washington’s situation is a bit more difficult. RHP Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.51 ERA, 268 K) is the guy that the Nats would ideally have starting here, but he started Game 3 and that is a tough turnaround for anybody. Still, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him start this one. It’s a do-or-die situation and he’s being paid handsomely for this situation. Either way, expect him out there at some point. At the very least, he can give them 50-70 pitches here. The other guys that the Nationals are considering are LHP Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 2.96 ERA, 188 K) and RHP Tanner Roark (13-11, 4.67 ERA, 166 K). Both are solid pitchers, but obviously lack the upside of somebody like Scherzer. If either of them go Thursday then expect a pretty short leash.
Kyle Hendricks is starting for the Cubs on Thursday and the righty has been as clutch as can be for Chicago over the past two years. Last year, Hendricks had a 1.42 ERA in five postseason starts for the Cubs. He then got this year’s playoffs off on the right foot, as he pitched seven innings of shutout ball against the Nationals in Game 1. Hendricks struck out six in that game and should be feeling really good coming into this one. He just needs to make sure that he doesn’t hang anything here, as the Nationals have plenty of guys that will be looking to take him yard. On offense, 1B Anthony Rizzo and 3B Kris Bryant will have to step their games up for the Cubs in this one. Rizzo has been extremely clutch throughout the course of this series, but he did fail to show up in Game 4. Chicago needs him to get back to being the same dangerous hitter he has always been on Thursday. Bryant, meanwhile, has really failed to show up in this series. He is 0-for-7 over the past two games and the Cubs need last year’s NL MVP to snap out of it in this game.
The Nationals are playing it close to the vest for Thursday, so it’s difficult to really figure out who they are going to start. One thing that’s definitely for sure is that the Cubs are probably dying to see Tanner Roark. Roark is the worst of the three guys under consideration here and Chicago would feel great about its chances if he is on the mound. And if Roark is on the mound then he’ll need to really be on point with his control for Washington. He can get very wild on occasion, which is why it makes a lot more sense to go with either Gonzalez or Scherzer. The one thing the Nationals will definitely need to do here is provide some run support. Even if Scherzer is able to go, there’s a good chance he won’t be pitching to his fullest capabilities. That means that the Washington lineup has to be prepared to have his back. The two guys that definitely need to produce at the plate here are OF Bryce Harper and 2B Daniel Murphy. Both were insane during the regular season, but that means nothing if they can’t drive in some runs in the biggest game of the year.
Thursday's NLDS Betting Preview: Cubs at Nationals
Covers.com
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (A: -115, H: -105, Total: 7.5)
With an assist from the weather, the Washington Nationals have forced a winner-take-all matchup against the visiting Chicago Cubs on Thursday in their National League Division Series. Stephen Strasburg’s stellar start in Washington’s 5-0 win in Game 4 on Wednesday sent the series back to the nation’s capital and left the Nationals with plenty of flexibility with their pitching staff.
Strasburg threw seven strong innings despite manager Dusty Baker’s announcement a night earlier that Chicago-area native Tanner Roark would start Game 4. That leaves Roark and left-hander Gio Gonzalez as potential Game 5 starters and gives Washington a fully stocked bullpen - including ace Max Scherzer - for the decisive contest. The Cubs’ bullpen is slightly more taxed after burning Game 2 Jon Lester on Wednesday, but Chicago will have Kyle Hendricks on the mound as he looks to continue a recent history of strong postseason performances. The Cubs have scored only eight runs in the series and managed just three hits in Wednesday’s setback.
INJURY REPORT:
Cubs - RP K. Uehara (Out Indefinitely, Knee).
Nationals - S. Drew (Out Indefinitely, Abdominal), LF R. Raburn (Out Indefinitely, Shoulder), SP J. Ross (Out For Season, Elbow), CF A. Eaton (Out For Season, Knee).
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. TBA
Hendricks outdueled Strasburg in Game 1, allowing two hits and three walks while registering six strikeouts over seven scoreless innings. The 27-year-old has gotten the ball for the Cubs’ last two series clinchers – Game 6 of last year’s NL Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Game 7 of the World Series versus Cleveland. He is 2-1 with a 1.98 ERA in eight postseason starts.
Baker told reporters after Game 4 he is “not sure yet” who will start on Thursday and his decision will be based on who is the best fit. Gonzalez allowed three runs and three hits over five innings in Game 2 as the Nationals got him off the hook with a late rally. Roark has not started since Sept. 27 and gave up eight runs in 5 2/3 frames over his last two regular-season appearances (one start).
TRENDS:
* Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Cubs are 6-1 in Hendricks' last 7 starts vs. National League East.
* Nationals are 2-6 in their last 8 playoff home games.
* Under is 10-1 in Hendricks' last 11 road starts.
* Under is 6-0-2 in Nationals' last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Under is 4-0 in Hendricks' last 4 starts vs. Nationals.
* Cubs are 2-7 in their last 9 games with Jerry Layne behind home plate.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home underdog Nationals at a rate of 60 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Chicago (-110) at Washington; Total: 7.5
The Cubs are a slight favorite at several shops out there in the betting market, while others have this game as a virtual money line pick ‘em. Without the usual travel day between games thanks to Tuesday’s rainout, the teams didn’t have a whole lot of time to sort through an emotional Game 4 on Wednesday night. It was a 1-0 game as Stephen Strasburg shoved after having his toughness questioned until Michael Taylor’s grand slam all but guaranteed a decisive fifth game.
During last year’s World Series run, the Cubs faced elimination three times. All three against the Indians and all three in the World Series. They won all of them. This season, they face the possibility of elimination in the Division Series. The burden falls on Kyle Hendricks this time around as he looks to help his team to the next round. Hendricks was excellent in Game 1 and I talked about how he was a bad matchup for a Nationals lineup that struggled with changeups. Surprisingly, Hendricks only threw 23 changeups out of his 106 pitches, but did generate six of his 11 swinging strikes. He threw 70 sinkers and 12 four-seam fastballs, so he let his fastball command do the talking. Hendricks struck out six over his seven innings, walked two, and only allowed two hits. I’ll be curious to see what adjustments are made. Guys that lack overpowering stuff can have issues the second time they face a lineup if there is any drop-off in command. Hendricks makes his money on the strength of his fastball command and that plus changeup. He’ll be on a short leash, as all starters are in an elimination game.
Gio Gonzalez was a guy that I was looking to fade in the playoffs and it seems kind of fitting that my usual style of handicapping didn’t yield as many positive results as in the past and now Gonzalez is pitching an elimination game. He was passable in Game 2 with three runs allowed on three hits in five innings of work. He struck out six and walked two. Jon Lester was better, but the Cubs bullpen couldn’t hold the game, so those that faded Gonzalez along with me fell victim to Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman’s power in the eighth. Gonzalez did a fine job of inducing weak contact in the game, with an average exit velocity against of 86.7 mph. He had 11 swings and misses out of his 83 pitches. He mixed his pitches well with 15 two-seamers, 18 changeups, 27 curveballs, and 23 four-seamers. It helped that he was able to work all four pitches because he was up in the zone too much and some of his breakers caught too much of the plate. By mixing his arsenal effectively, he kept hitters off-balance and that was enough to allow him to fight through five innings.
I’m not so sure that he can have the same success the second time against this Cubs lineup, but he also won’t be asked to do as much as he was in Game 2. With Strasburg’s seven-inning effort in Wednesday’s Game 4, Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle each threw an inning, so the middle relievers and the majority of the Nationals bullpen are in decent shape. Madson did throw 27 pitches in his one frame, but it’s Game 5, so everybody is available.
Bullpen games, and the playoffs in general, are inherently high-variance. I certainly understand the total being as low as it is and also understand the line being right around pick ‘em. I, too, would favor the Cubs slightly, so there isn’t a ton of value on the number. The Nationals bullpen has been the better of the two in this series and this game should come down to those guys. As a result, I’d have a slight lean to the Washington side, especially for those that took the Cubs at plus money on the series price as I suggested before this round of games began. Buying out of that bet isn’t the worst thing in the world, since it is basically a coin flip at this point.