MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, September 25th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Braves @ Mets
Sims is 0-2, 7.54 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Braves are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5
Fried is 1-0, 5.19 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Braves won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Flexen is 1-3, 8.55 in his last four starts (over 4-3-1). Mets are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5
Lugo is 1-2, 6.16 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Mets are 3-2 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-4
Atlanta won three of its last four games; under is 8-2 in their last nine games. Braves are 1-6 in last seven road series openers. Mets are 3-10 in their last 13 games; under is 4-2 in their last six home games. NY is 13-7 in last 20 home series openers.
Nationals @ Phillies
Gonzalez is 7-2, 2.51 in his last nine starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five. Washington is 10-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-5
Nola is 2-0, 2.79 in his last three starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Phillies are 9-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-6
Washington won five of last seven games; under is 9-3-2 in their last 14 games. Nationals are 17-9 in road series openers. Phillies lost three of their last four games; under is 7-1-2 in their last ten. Philly is 7-5 in last 12 home series openers.
Cubs @ Cardinals
Lester is 3-1, 5.91 in his last four starts; Cubs scored 40 runs in the four games- over is 7-1 in his last eight starts. Cubs are 7-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-11-6
Weaver is 7-0, 1.90 in his last seven starts (over 4-4). Cardinals are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-1-1
Cubs won 10 of last 12 games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight. Chicago is 11-4 in last 15 road series openers. St Louis won five of last six home games; under is 6-1 in their last seven. Cardinals are 10-5 in last 15 home series openers.
Marlins @ Rockies
Despaigne is 0-3, 6.03 in six starts this year (under 4-2). Miami is 0-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3-3
Chatwood is 2-1, 1.83 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Colorado is 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12-1
Marlins won five of last eight games; 10 of their last 11 road games went over. Miami is 2-7 in last nine road series openers. Colorado lost five of its last seven games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Rockies are 18-6 in home series openers.
Giants @ Diamondbacks
Cueto is 1-1, 5.29 in his last six starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Giants are 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-4
Godley is 3-1, 3.38 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Arizona is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-4
Giants won four of their last six games; under is 9-1 in their last ten games. SF is 2-7 in last nine road series openers. Arizona lost four of last seven games; under is 5-4 in their last nine games. Snakes are 18-7 in home series openers. Diamondbacks clinched a playoff spot yesterday.
Padres @ Dodgers
Wood is 1-2, 15.68 in his last three starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine starts. San Diego is 0-4 in his road starts, outscored 42-15— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-5-1
Darvish is 1-0, 0.73 in his last two starts (over 4-3-1). LA is 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3-1
San Diego won five of its last seven games (under 8-3). Padres are 8-16 in road series openers. Dodgers are 8-16 in their last 24 games; under is 8-1-3 in their last 12. LA is 17-8 in home series openers.
American League
Royals @ New York
Junis is 5-0, 2.79 in his last eight starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. KC is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-2
Sabathia is 3-0, 3.12 in his last six starts; under is 15-4 in his last 19. New York is 8-3 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-1
Royals are 4-7 in their last 11 games; under is 8-4 in their last 12. KC is 6-9 in last 15 road series openers. New York won eight of last 11 games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven. NY is 10-3 in last 13 home series openers.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Anderson is 1-2, 6.17 in five starts this year (under 3-2). Toronto is 0-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2-2
Pomeranz is 2-0, 1.47 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Red Sox are 11-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-11-2
Toronto lost four of last six road games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games. Blue Jays are 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Boston won nine of last ten games; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Red Sox are 13-5 in last 18 home series openers.
Astros @ Rangers
McHugh is 4-0, 2.19 in his last five starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Houston is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-3-1
Cashner is 3-1, 3.45 in his last five starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Texas lost his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-7-3
Houston won eight of its last ten games; under is 6-1 in their last seven. Astros are 17-7 in road series openers. Texas lost its last three games; under is 7-1 in their last eight. Rangers won their last six home series openers.
Angels @ White Sox
Nolasco is 0-2, 4.65 in his last six starts; over is 7-4-1 in his last 12. Angels are 5-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-17-5
Shields is 2-3, 4.80 in his last five starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. White Sox are 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-3
Angels lost six of their last seven games; six of their last seven road games stayed under. Halos are 3-8 in last 11 road series openers. Chicago won three of last four games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games. White Sox are 6-3 in last nine home series openers.
Mariners @ A’s
Hernandez is 0-2, 5.76 in his last five starts; overs 3-1 in his last four. Seattle is 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7-1
Gossett is 1-3, 5.47 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. A’s are 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-9-1
Seattle lost eight of its last nine games; under is 14-5 in their last 19. Mariners are 10-5 in last 15 road series openers. Oakland is 14-3 in its last 17 games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 home games. A’s are 11-14 in home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Atl-NY: Sims 2-6 Fried 2-0; Lugo 8-8 Flexen 4-4
Wsh-Phil: Gonzalez 18-12; Nola 13-13
Chi-StL: Lester 17-13; Weaver 7-1
Mia-Colo: Despaigne 2-4; Chatwood 10-14
SF-Az: Cueto 12-11; Godley 14-10
SD-LA: Wood 5-5; Darvish 4-4
American League
KC-NY: Junis 10-4; Sabathia 17-8
Tor-Bos: Anderson 1-4; Pomeranz 21-9
Hst-Tex: McHugh 5-5; Cashner 13-13
LA-Chi: Nolasco 10-21; Shields 8-12
Sea-A’s: Hernandez 8-7; Gossett 6-10
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Atl-NY: Sims 3-8 Fried 1-2; Lugo 4-16 Flexen 5-8
Wsh-Phil: Gonzalez 11-30; Nola 6-26
Chi-StL: Lester 11-30; Weaver 1-8
Mia-Colo: Despaigne 2-6; Chatwood 6-24
SF-Az: Cueto 6-23; Godley 5-24
SD-LA: Wood 5-10; Darvish 4-8
American League
KC-NY: Junis 7-5-2; Sabathia 7-25
Tor-Bos: Anderson 2-5; Pomeranz 8-30
Hst-Tex: McHugh 2-10; Cashner 6-26
LA-Chi: Nolasco 12-31; Shields 6-20
Sea-A’s: Hernandez 7-15; Gossett 2-16
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 73-72 NL, favorites +$416
Total: 156-130 AL, favorites +$136
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-64-8
Total: Over 145-132-12
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Kansas City at New York (-170); Total: 9
I won’t spend a ton of time on this one, but Jake Junis and the Royals are a decent value grab. Junis has been really strong since his early August recall with a 3.02 ERA, a 2.84 FIP, and a 4.14 xFIP in his 50.2 innings of work. He has a 41/6 K/BB ratio with a 5.1 percent HR/FB%. He’s been absolutely terrific. I’m not sure how invested either of these teams will be for a makeup game that means nothing for the Royals and doesn’t really mean anything for the Yankees either. They are up 4.5 games in the Wild Card and five out in the division, so they are basically locked into that one-game playoff and likely against the Twins.
The Royals are going to make a big push for .500 this week. That would require a 5-2 record. They are a buy team for me from this point forward and that includes today with the big underdog price tag.
Houston (-130) at Texas; Total: 10
I’ve got a good idea of which way the market will go on Monday for the matchup between the Astros and the Rangers. Collin McHugh takes the hill for the Astros and Andrew Cashner goes for the Rangers. McHugh has a 3.44 ERA with a 3.96 FIP and a 4.75 xFIP in his 10 starts covering just 52.1 innings of work. McHugh has been slowed by injuries for a good chunk of the year. Since returning, he has a nice set of peripherals overall.
Andrew Cashner refuses to regress. He has a 3.44 ERA with a 4.65 FIP and a 5.26 xFIP. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates among pitchers with at least 150 innings of work and has followed it up with a subpar BB%. But, he has a .264 BABIP against and a 77.1 percent LOB%. He just won’t fall victim to bad luck in any way, shape, or form. It has been frustrating for me, since he fits all the criteria of a fade, but he just don’t do it. I’m done betting on him to do it.
Expect a move on the Astros in this spot, as they sit 2.5 games in back of the Indians for the best record in the AL, but I won’t be part of that line move.
Los Angeles (-150) at Chicago; Total: 10
I’ll be looking to fade the Angels in this spot and on this road trip. They made some decisions at the waiver deadline that temporarily helped the ballclub, but the lack of starting pitching was finally the team’s undoing. As awful as the White Sox are, they seem to be pushing towards the end. Chicago is 11-12 in the month of September and 11-8 against teams not named the Indians, since they were four of the 22 straight wins for the Tribe.
At this point, the Angels are 4.5 out with seven to play. The Twins have a cupcake schedule. It’s over for Anaheim. My guess is that the players are pretty aware of it. Ricky Nolasco has been a very bad pitcher this season with a 5.06 ERA, a 5.17 FIP, and a 4.76 xFIP. He’s given up 34 HR in 170.2 innings of work. The road has not been kind to Nolasco either with a .296/.360/.578 slash against. He has allowed 22 of his 34 HR on the road.
I don’t see the Angels excited to be this far from home, playing in a ballpark with no atmosphere whatsoever and the fact that Anaheim has gone 8-13 in the month of September while being in the throes of a playoff race.
James Shields is awful. We all know that. But, he’s still trying. He’s still out there giving Chicago as many innings as he can. He’s been less awful lately with a 4.56 ERA, which is basically the equivalent of a quality start with three earned allowed across six innings of work. That’s good enough in this spot against Nolasco in my opinion.
I’ll be on the heavy home dog today.
Miami at Colorado (-165); Total: 12
It has been a long season for the Miami Marlins, with the team for sale and all of the other adversities that they have faced. The fact that the season is coming to an end has to be exciting for them. If temperatures and weather conditions were nicer in Denver, I’d be all over the Marlins tonight. The forecast calls for rain and 50-degree temps. The Marlins won’t be interested in that. If it was warmer and sunnier, the idea of padding numbers at Coors Field in the last week of the season would be nice. Instead, these South Floridians don’t really want to play in this garbage.
Tuesday’s forecast looks better, so maybe that will be a spot to grab the underdog, but today is not. I would expect Marlins money to come in, though, so if you’re interested in grabbing a line, I’d do that.
Desperate Cardinals host Cubs
By: StatFox.com
The Cardinals will be trying to stay alive in the NL wild card race by defeating the Cubs in St. Louis on Monday.
The Cubs have created a nice bit of separation in the NL Central, as they are 5.5 games up on the Brewers and 6.0 games up on the Cardinals right now. Chicago should be able to win the division at this point, but facing St. Louis does make things interesting. If the Cardinals can find a way to sweep then they would not only be alive in the wild card race, but they’d also have a small shot to steal the division. That is, however, very unlikely, so St. Louis just needs to focus on winning games in order to have a shot at playing in the Wild Card Game. The starters in this Monday night matchup are set to be LHP Jon Lester (11-8, 4.56 ERA, 169 K) for Chicago and RHP Luke Weaver (7-1, 2.05 ERA, 65 K) for St. Louis. Lester has long been an excellent pitcher in this league, but he has been awful this season. The Cubs are hoping that he can get back on track here, as they’ll want him to have some momentum once the postseason begins. Weaver, meanwhile, has been excellent on the year, so the Cardinals will be confident with him out there.
The Cubs’ magic number is just two right now, so they definitely will want to clinch the division in St. Louis this week. Jon Lester is the guy tasked with earning them a victory on Monday, and the lefty has been solid against St. Louis this season. In four meetings with the Cardinals, Lester is 1-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 30 strikeouts. And his most recent matchup with them just might have been his best, as he allowed just two earned runs and struck out 10 batters in eight innings of work. Chicago won that game 3-2 and will certainly be hoping that a similar Lester performance is on the horizon. Offensively, the Cubs are likely going to have some trouble with Weaver here. Everybody that has faced him has, but one guy to keep an eye out for is SS Addison Russell. The Cubs obviously have guys that are more dangerous at the plate than Russell, but the 23-year-old has homered off of Weaver in the past. Perhaps he saw something he liked against the righty, and Chicago would certainly welcome any production he can give them.
The Cardinals will be hoping to stay alive in the playoff hunt on Monday, and Luke Weaver is exactly the guy they’ll want on the mound here. Weaver has been insane lately, as the righty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight straight appearances for St. Louis. He did pitch just two innings in one of those games, but the point is that he is consistently giving the Cardinals a chance to win games. It would not be surprising at all if he were to shut down Chicago here, as his stuff has truly been top notch over the past few months. Offensively, C Yadier Molina should be able to come through at the plate for Weaver. Molina is 12-for-35 with three doubles, a homer, and five RBI against Lester in his career. He has always come up big for this team when counted on and that should be no different on Monday.
MLB Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 8.5)
The Nationals and Phillies open a three-game series this evening in Philadelphia. It's a very rare occasion when the Phillies are favored over their division rivals from Washington, D.C. - and even more rare is when we actually pick them to win as favorites over the Nats.
Aaron Nola is the ace of the young Phillies' pitching staff and brings with him a very impressive 9-4 win/loss record at home this season (keep in mind, this is the Phillies) with an also very impressive 2.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park. Over his last three starts Nola is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA, and in his only home start against the Nats this season he worked six innings and allowed three runs in an eventual 17-3 win by the Phils.
A.J. Cole will get the road start for the Nationals. Washington has lost five of his last six starts and he has spent some time in the bullpen during that span, which also did not go very well. As we reach the end of a long season these young arms will begin to tire, and over his last two appearances Cole owns an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 2.00.
This is a tough time of year to handicap baseball games, your best strategy is to take the starting pitcher you feel most comfortable backing. Today that is Aaron Nola.
Pick: Phillies -135
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-265, 8 )
The Padres hit the road to end their 2017 season with the first stop being Los Angeles where they will take on the Dodgers for three games.
The Dodgers' big trade deadline acquisition, Yu Darvish, will makes his ninth start as both he and the club try to right the ship after a very dicey fourth quarter of the season. For Darvish's part, he really seemed to put things together on the team's recent road trip where he made a pair of starts and pitched to a 0.00 ERA and a 0.6487 WHIP over 12.1 innings of work.
The Dodgers still aren't scoring a lot of runs, averaging only 3.00 runs per game over their last nine. This is great news for Padres lefty Travis Wood, who is listed as our Slumping Starter today but is coming off a solid outing against the Diamondbacks where he allowed only three hits over six innings.
Call it a hunch. The Dodgers (1.15) and Padres (1.25) rank No. 1 and No. 2 respectively in National League bullpen WHIP, so if this becomes a bullpen battle we should see plenty of zeros hitting the board.
Pick: Under 8
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 156-140-15
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals (7-1, 2.05 ERA, $604)
Luke Weaver is going to be part of the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff for a long time and that must make Cards fans very happy. The 24-year old is having a breakout season sporting a 7-1 record (9-2 team win/loss) with a 2.05 ERA and has won six straight trips to the mound.
During this six-start stretch, he has thrown 36.1 innings allowing six runs (1.49 ERA), has a WHIP of 0.9083, struck out 49 and only walked four.
Weaver looks to extend his personal winning streak when the Cubbies visit today and the Cardinals are available at -123.
Slumping: Travis Wood, San Diego Padres (4-6, 6.55 ERA, $162)
Not a lot to be excited about at the end of September for the San Diego Padres, the season can’t end quickly enough. Travis Wood might not have already packed his bags for the off-season but I suspect he’s mentally checked out.
The Padres left-hander is 1-2 in his last three starts with a whopping 14.81 ERA and a 2.23 WHIP. Throwing a total of 10.1 innings and allowing 7 home runs.
Wood and the Padres take the field (in body) as +236 road pups against Yu Darvish and the Dodgers.
Monday's Top Trends
* Braves are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in New York. -111 @ Mets.
* Over is 12-2 in Aaron Nola’s last 14 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. WAS/PHI Total: 8.5
* Under is 8-1 in Collin McHugh’s last 9 starts overall. HOU/TEX Total: 10.5
* Angels are 0-7 in Ricky Nolasco’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. -151 @ White Sox.
* Athletics are 8-0 in their last 8 home games. +101 vs. Mariners.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
According to the forecast, there shouldn’t be any precipitation that will interrupt any of today's games on the MLB schedule.
It should be a pretty calm day in the wind department as well, with the only wind getting into double digits is at Oakland Coliseum, where 8-10 mile per hour winds will be blowing out to right center field. The Athletics are hosting the Seattle Mariners tonight and the total is currently at 9.5.