MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, September 24th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Pirates
Gant started seven games for the Braves LY; he’s allowed four runs in 9.1 IP in five relief stints this year. He was 6-5, 3.83 in 18 AAA starts this season.
Taillon is 0-2, 7.45 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 0-1, 5.63 in three starts vs St Louis this season. Pirates are 5-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-5
Cardinals won four of their last five games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Pittsburgh lost eight of last ten games; under is 13-4 in their last 17 games.
Nationals @ Mets
Scherzer is 3-1, 4.35 in his last five starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. He is 2-1, 3.68 against the Mets this season— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-8-4
deGrom is 1-2, 6.35 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight. He is 3-0, 1.99 in his last three starts vs Washington. Mets are 0-4 in his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-11-2
Washington won four of last six games; under is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games. Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 games (over 8-4).
Phillies @ Braves
Pivetta is 1-1, 6.55 in his last four starts; over is 5-3-2 in his last ten. He is 2-0, 3.27 vs Atlanta this season. Phillies are 4-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-15-2
Gohara is 1-2, 6.61 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Atlanta is 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-1
Phillies lost their last three games; under is 6-1-2 in their last nine. Atlanta won its last three games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Cubs @ Brewers
Quintana is 2-0, 3.00 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Cubs are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-4-3
Anderson is 4-0, 2.93 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). He is 2-1, 5.79 vs Chicago this season. Milwaukee is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-2
Cubs won nine of last 11 games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven. Milwaukee lost three of last four games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Marlins @ Diamondbacks
Straily is 1-1, 7.31 in his last three starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Miami is 6-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-11-4
Corbin is 1-2, 7.31 in his last three starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. Arizona is 10-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-14-4
Marlins won five of last seven games; their last ten road games went over. Arizona lost four of last six games; under is 5-4 in their last nine games.
Rockies @ Padres
Marquez is 0-2, 6.86 in his last four starts; under is 9-2-1 in his last 12. He is 1-1, 6.94 in two starts against the Padres this season. Colorado is 7-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-7-4
Perdomo is 2-2, 3.38 in his last five starts (under 4-1). He is 0-1, 8.64 in two starts vs Colorado this season. San Diego is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-11-4
Colorado lost five of its last six games; under is 8-1 in their last nine games. San Diego won five of its last seven games (under 8-3).
Giants @ Dodgers
Stratton is 1-1, 3.86 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Giants are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-1
Kershaw is 1-2, 5.74 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven starts. He is 2-1, 2.84 against the Giants this year. LA is 10-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 19-3-4
Giants won four of their last five games; under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Dodgers are 7-16 in their last 23 games; over is 5-4 in their last nine home games.
American League
Rays @ Orioles
Archer is 0-4, 9.88 in his last four starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. He is 0-2, 7.11 against the Orioles this year. Rays are 7-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-10-5
Bundy is 0-1, 7.54 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He is 1-1, 5.19 in three starts vs Tampa Bay this season. Orioles are 10-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-10-2
Rays won three of last four games; three of their last four games went over. Baltimore lost 14 of last 17 games; over is 7-2 in their last nine home games.
New York @ Toronto
Garcia is 0-2, 5.14 in seven starts for New York (under 6-1). NY is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4-2
Stroman is 2-2, 3.72 in his last seven starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four. Toronto 9-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-13-2
New York won eight of last ten games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven road games. Toronto lost four of last six games; under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games.
Twins @ Tigers
Berrios is 0-2, 4.71 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Twins lost his last ten road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-3
Farmer is 1-3, 9.82 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Detroit lost his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6
Twins won their last three games; over is 3-0-1 in their last four. Detroit is 2-13 in its last 15 games; over is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home games.
Angels @ Astros
Skaggs is 1-1, 1.46 in his last two starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. He is 1-0, 3.75 in two starts vs Houston this year. Angels are 2-5 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 3-9-2
McCullers is 0-2, 9.38 in his last five starts, with two DL stints mixed in there. Over is 5-1 in his last six starts. He is1 -0, 0.66 in two starts against the Angels this year. Astros are 6-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-3
Angels lost their last six games; their last six road games stayed under. Houston won eight of its last nine games; under is 14-3 in their last 17 home games.
Royals @ While Sox
Kennedy is 0-3, 8.82 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. He is 0-1, 8.59 in three starts vs Chicago this season. Royals are 8-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-17-4
Giolito is 0-2, 3.93 in his last three starts (under 5-1). White Sox are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3
Royals are 4-6 in their last ten games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. White Sox lost four of last six games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games.
Rangers @ A’s
Perez is 7-1, 3.61 in his last nine starts; over is 10-7 in his last 17 starts. He is 1-1, 4.00 vs Oakland this year. Texas is 6-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-13-4
Cotton is 3-0, 6.07 in his last five starts, last four of which went over. He is 1-1, 5.56 vs Texas this season. A’s are 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-13-1
Rangers won four of their last six games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Oakland is 13-3 in its last 16 games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
Indians @ Mariners
Kluber is 5-0, 1.15 in his last five starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Cleveland is 9-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-2
Leake is 3-0, 2.49 in four starts for Seattle (under 4-0). Mariners are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-0-1
Indians are 28-2 in their last 30 games; over is 4-2 in their last six road games. Seattle lost seven of its last eight games; under is 13-5 in their last 18.
Interleague
Red Sox @ Reds
Fister is 0-1, 16.50 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Boston is 4-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8
Stephens is 1-0, 8.31 in two starts this season (over 1-1). Reds split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Boston won eight of last nine games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Cincinnati lost its last five games, three of which went over.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Pitt: Gant 0-0; Talllon 11-12
Wsh-NY: Scherzer 20-9; deGrom 17-13
Phil-Atl: Pivetta 9-15; Gohara 1-2
Chi-Mil: Quintana 8-4; Anderson 13-10
Mia-Az: Straily 15-16; Corbin 16-15
Colo-SD: Marquez 16-11; Perdomo 12-15
SF-LA: Stratton 5-3; Kershaw 21-4
American League
TB-Balt: Archer 15-17; Bundy 17-11
NY-Tor: Garcia 4-3; Stroman 18-13
Minn-Det: Berrios 13-11; Farmer 4-5
LA-Hst: Skaggs 6-8; McCullers 13-7
KC-Chi: Kennedy 13-15; Giolito 3-3
Tex-A’s: Perez 15-15; Cotton 10-13
Clev-Sea: Kluber 19-8; Leake 3-1
Interleague
Bos-Cin: Fister 7-6; Stephens 1-1
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
StL-Pitt: Gant 0-0; Talllon 6-23
Wsh-NY: Scherzer 6-29; deGrom 9-30
Phil-Atl: Pivetta 11-24; Gohara 2-3
Chi-Mil: Quintana 4-12; Anderson 7-23
Mia-Az: Straily 7-31; Corbin 13-31
Colo-SD: Marquez 7-27; Perdomo 9-27
SF-LA: Stratton 1-7; Kershaw 5-25
American League
TB-Balt: Archer 10-32; Bundy 4-28
NY-Tor: Garcia 5-7; Stroman 6-31
Minn-Det: Berrios 6-24; Farmer 4-9
LA-Hst: Skaggs 7-14; McCullers 4-20
KC-Chi: Kennedy 8-28; Giolito 0-6
Tex-A’s: Perez 12-30; Cotton 10-23
Clev-Sea: Kluber 5-27; Leake 2-4
Interleague
Bos-Cin: Fister 8-15 (6 of last 6); Stephens 0-2
Umpires
National League
StL-Pitt: Under is 6-3 in last nine Hamari games.
Wsh-NY: Under is 8-2 in last ten Segal games.
Phil-Atl: Three of last four Scheurwater games went over.
Chi-Mil: Four of last five Demuth games stayed under.
Mia-Az: Over is 5-2 in last seven Kellogg games.
Colo-SD: Last four Meals games stayed under.
SF-LA: Three of last four Baker games went over.
American League
TB-Balt: Six of last eight Cederstrom games went over.
NY-Tor: Underdogs are 3-3 (+$149) in last six Carlson games.
Minn-Det: Three of last four Davis games went over.
LA-Hst: Five of last six Little games stayed under.
KC-Chi: Over is 6-2 in last eight Whitson games.
Tex-A’s: Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Hallion games.
Clev-Sea: Under is 4-1-2 in last seven Wolf games.
Interleague
Bos-Cin: Five of last six Wegner games went over.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 73-71 NL, favorites +$316
Total: 155-130 AL, favorites +$36
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-63-8
Total: Over 145-131-12
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Tampa Bay (-115) at Baltimore; Total: 9
We finally got a good outing out of Chris Archer, who left his September 2 start with forearm discomfort. I’ve been waiting to see if he was going to get back on track after a couple of subpar performances, but he worked six good innings against a solid Cubs team. I’m still going to take a conservative and tentative approach to Archer, though. He struck out six and the stuff had good life, so that’s a good sign, but I’m still going to hold off. Archer is approaching 200 innings and has had one of the highest pitch workloads in baseball over the last few seasons. I don’t know how much is left in the tank, even with a pretty decent matchup against a free-swinging Baltimore offense.
Dylan Bundy will cross the 170-inning mark today with his first out. A case can be made that the Orioles have been overprotective of the young right-hander, as he just worked 100 innings in a season for the first time since 2012 in the 2016 season. He has had a long list of injury problems, though, so the caution is justifiable, though you have to wonder how Bundy will bounce back next season. On the year, Bundy has a 4.24/4.38/4.77 pitcher slash. Up until this month, Bundy had been better in the second half than the first half, holding opposing batters to a .221/.277/.363 slash line. He had a .247/.315/.454 against in the first half.
Bundy, though, allowed five runs in four innings on September 4 and six runs in his last start on September 18, which led the media to ask if he would be shut down. The final word is that he will not, so he’ll just have to push through it. There is hope for Bundy in this spot with a Rays lineup that has been well below average for a while now. I think it’s a good matchup for him, all things considered, so I’d be looking at the under today. It’s a getaway day game for two teams with nothing to play for and two pitchers that have good matchups.
Kansas City (-110) at Chicago; Total: 9.5
Ian Kennedy and Lucas Giolito are the slated starters for this AL Central matchup in the Windy City. The Royals may be a sneaky team to back over the next week. Their window has slammed shut. They got a title out of it and will lose four key free agents this winter. Today is a really tough handicap, though. Ian Kennedy’s wife just gave birth on Friday. There is a school of thought that athletes have a “baby bump” when those anxious times are in the rearview mirror. On the other hand, this close to the end of the regular season, Kennedy is likely to just want to go spend time with his wife and family.
It hasn’t been a good season for Kennedy anyway. He has a 5.39 ERA with a 5.64 FIP and a 5.34 xFIP. I’d be inclined to fade him in this spot. If it was a start in June or July and he was looking at a long rest of the season, then I’d be more inclined to back him or stay away. Today, though, I think his mind and focus will be elsewhere. The rest of the season will be played at home after Monday’s makeup game in New York. The Royals are a team to back at home next week as they enjoy one last hurrah as a group, but I’m looking to go against Kennedy today.
That being said, I have some legitimate concerns about Lucas Giolito. Giolito has worked 167 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues this year. He worked 136.2 innings last season and just 117 the season before. Giolito’s fastball velocity was down in his last start, but it was good to see him use his secondary pitches to push through it. Giolito has made six starts for the White Sox and has only allowed 13 runs, 11 earned, on 26 hits in 38.1 innings of work with a 29/12 K/BB ratio. Seven of those hits have left the yard, so he has just a .186 BABIP against and an 89.7 percent LOB%. There are some regression signs here to be sure.
I’d probably look at the White Sox team total over as the best play here. The Royals want to finish with a winning mark to cap off what has been probably the best run in franchise history. They are more motivated than the other mediocre teams at this point in time. I could justify a play on the side either way, but I’d go White Sox team total over as my preferred derivative here.
Chicago (-125) at Milwaukee; Total: 9
This has been a fun series, though the stress levels have been high for Brewers fans. After scratching out a one-run win yesterday, Milwaukee got a game back in the Wild Card standings and has a chance to split the series today when Jose Quintana goes up against Chase Anderson.
The Cubs have gotten the version of Jose Quintana that we expected this season. The crafty lefty has a 3.95 ERA with a 3.65 FIP and a 3.28 xFIP since getting traded. He also has 83 strikeouts in 70.2 innings of work, so the league change has paid dividends. Chase Anderson has some signs of regression, but he’s simply carried a low HR/FB% all season long with solid peripherals otherwise and much better command. He has a 2.74/3.57/4.50 pitcher slash.
This game looks like an under to me. There is a lot on the line for both teams and those games tend to be played in tighter fashion. I definitely like Quintana and like Anderson as well. I really think the analytically-minded Brewers have done a lot of positive things for guys like Anderson, Jimmy Nelson, and Zach Davies. I’m not all that surprised to see this rotation and this bullpen take steps forward.
This looks like a low-scoring affair and should be played as such.
Colorado (-120) at San Diego; Total: 8
German Marquez is a guy that I have talked about a lot this season. Last time out, he wasn’t as much help for us, though. Marquez has a 4.41 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 4.09 xFIP. The innings workload shouldn’t be an issue for him because he worked well over 180 innings last season. I’m definitely not worried about that. He allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings and has had some tougher outings lately.
Dating back to August 13, Marquez has a 5.79 ERA with a 5.42 FIP and a 3.62 xFIP. He has allowed 60 hits in 42 innings of work, with 11 of them leaving the ballpark. His command has really fallen off late in the year. Perhaps he’s pitching through something or the strain of pitching every fifth day in the big leagues has gotten to him. Unfortunately, as much as I like Marquez, he may be a fade pitcher over his last couple of starts. He still has good control with a 39/9 K/BB ratio, but throwing strikes and throwing quality strikes are two different things.
Luis Perdomo is what he is with a 4.57 ERA, a 4.54 FIP, and a 4.26 xFIP. He’s a very extreme ground ball guy, which requires the opposition to string hits together in order to score runs. Sometimes that happens and sometimes it doesn’t. The Rockies lineup has been below average pretty much all season, especially when adjusted for park factor.
I’m content with taking a stab at the Padres today. The Rockies haven’t played well for the better part of three months now and San Diego seems to be pushing to the end of the season. This is a team operating with a clear talent deficiency, but it is a team that is 32-35 since the All-Star Break and 11-11 this month. The Padres are six games over .500 at home. They’ve been a sneaky good team to back at Petco and that looks like the case to me today with today’s home finale.
MLB Daily Line Drive
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Double-Play Picks
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-153, 8.5)
Tonight on Sunday Night Baseball will be the 19th and final meeting of the season between the Angels and Astros. The Astros, of course, have already clinched the American League West and are getting tuned up for the post-season, while the Angels now sit 4.5 games back in the Wildcard race and will need a minor miracle to get into the one-game play-in against the Yankees.
All good teams go through a slump at some point during the long summer grind. The Astros had theirs and have emerged with flying colors, now winners of eight of their last nine games overall. As they continue their tune-up for October, one of their major areas of concern is Lance McCullers. The hard-throwing righty has been dealing with arm fatigue and will make only his second start since July.
Over his last five starts he owns an ERA of 8.63 and a WHIP of 2.00. These numbers are not good, however throwing at the major league level is not easy when your body simply won't allow you to toss at maximum velocity. The 'Stros are hopeful that McCullers is healthy and tonight will be his tune-up for a key post-season role.
The Angels will counter with Tyler Skaggs who is only 2-6 on the season with a very pedestrian 4.30 ERA in 14 starts. The Astros rank third in Major League Baseball with a .278 batting average against left-handed pitching this season and rank second in baseball (shockingly behind the Detroit Tigers) with a .816 OPS against lefties.
The Astros will get to Skaggs and pull out the victory tonight but there will also be a bit of rust from McCullers on the home side. Bullpens will come into play for both sides and that hasn't been the most reliable tool for either club this season. This game plays out like a 6-3 or 6-4 victory for the Astros.
Pick 1: Astros -153
Pick 2: Over 8.5
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 155-139-15
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (17-4, 2.35 ERA, $302)
Corey Kluber is putting together a pretty nice little run for the Indians and when I say that, I mean he’s been the best pitcher in baseball since June 1st. The right-hander has won nine of his last ten starts and is currently on a 22-inning scoreless streak.
Over his last three starts, he has allowed only two earned runs (0.78 ERA), 11 total hits over 23 innings of work (0.52 WHIP), and a ludicrous 30 strikeouts to only one walk. Kluber has actually given up more home runs (2) then walks over this stretch.
Corey Kluber looks to continue adding to his CY Young resume in Seattle today and the Indians are available at -201.
Slumping: Doug Fister, Boston Red Sox (5-8, 4.86 ERA, $35)
It had been a couple seasons since Doug Fister had been a highly productive MLB starter, but for a few weeks where he was the best pitcher in the Red Sox rotation not named Chris Sale.
No one believed it would last long, but my goodness things fell apart quickly.
In his last two starts he has thrown six total innings, allowed 11 runs (16.50 ERA) and has a 2.6667 WHIP. Fister has actually walked more batters (6) than he has struck out (4) in those starts.
Foster and the Red Sox are -130 road chalk this afternoon in Cincinnati against rookie Jackson Stephens and the Reds.
Sunday's Top Trends
* Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. +151 vs. Twins.
* Red Sox are 11-1 in the last 12 meetings with Reds. -130 @ Reds.
* Over is 11-2 in Ian Kennedys last 13 starts vs. American League Central. KC/CHW Total: 9.5.
* Under is 11-0-1 in Brewers last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. CHC/MIL Total: 9.
* Dodgers are 45-10 in Clayton Kershaw’s last 55 home starts. -293 vs. Giants.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There should be no precipitation impacting any action on the field today across Major League Baseball.
The most notable winds in the forecast are at Oakland Coliseum where the Athletics are hosting the Rangers and will be greeted with a 10-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to right-center. The total is sitting at 9.5. There will be an 11-13 mile per hour wind blowing in from left-center this afternoon at Petco Park for the matchup between the Padres and visiting Rockies. The total is currently set at 8.5.
Ump Of The Day
Will Little will be calling balls and strikes tonight in Houston where the Astros will be hosting the Angels. Not great news for Astros backers as the road team has won 14 of his last 17 games behind the dish.
On the season Little ranks 84 out of 92 in home team winning percentage. If you had blindly bet $100.00 on the home team in his 25 appearances behind the plate you would have lost $1033.
The Angels are +141 road pups tonight.