MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 23rd, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cardinals @ Pirates
Lynn is 1-1, 4.80 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. He is 2-1, 3.32 against the Pirates this year. St Louis is 6-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-14-2

Cole is 0-3, 5.04 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. He is 1-1, 2.50 in three starts vs St Louis this year. Pirates are 6-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-14-7

Cardinals won their last four games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games. Pittsburgh lost eight of last nine games; under is 13-3 in their last 16 games.

Nationals @ Mets
Strasburg is 4-0, 0.31 in his last four starts; under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. He is 1-1, 2.33 in three starts vs NY this season. Nationals are 11-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-2

Syndergaard is going to pitch the first inning only in this game, so no point listing his stats. It will be his first appearance since April 30. Harvey will pitch after that; he is 1-3, 13.19 in his last four starts. Over is 4-0-1 in Harvey’s last five starts.

Washington won three of last five games; under is 7-3-2 in their last 12 games. Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 games (over 8-3).

Phillies @ Braves
Alvarez allowed four runs in five IP (95 PT) in his first start since 2015. Phillies’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Teheran is 4-1, 2.25 in his last five starts; under is 6-1-2 in his last nine. He is 1-2, 7.71 vs Philly this season. Braves are 4-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-11-5

Phillies are 7-4 in their last 11 games; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight. Atlanta lost five of last eight games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Cubs @ Brewers
Hendricks is 3-1, 2.65 in his last five starts; his last four starts stayed under. He is 1-1, 3.68 in four starts vs Milwaukee this year. Cubs are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-4

Suter is 1-0, 4.50 in his last five starts (under 7-3-2). Milwaukee is 5-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-3-1

Cubs won nine of last ten games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six. Milwaukee lost last three games, all in its opponent’s last at-bat; over is 4-1-1 in their last six home games.

Marlins @ Diamondbacks
Peters is 0-2, 5.40 in four starts this year (over 3-1). Miami lost all four of his starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2

Walker is 3-1, 2.51 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Arizona is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-6

Marlins won four of last six games; their last nine road games went over. Arizona lost three of last five games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Rockies @ Padres
Bettis is 1-3, 9.58 in his last five starts (under 6-1). Colorado is 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-1

Chacin is 1-1, 4.64 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. He is 0-1, 6.10 in two starts vs Colorado this year. San Diego is 9-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-16-3

Colorado lost four of its last four games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. San Diego won four of its last six games (under 7-3).

Giants @ Dodgers
Bumgarner is 0-4, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Giants are 1-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-9-4

Ryu is 0-1, 4.30 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. LA is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-4

Giants won three of their last four games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Dodgers are 7-15 in their last 22 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight home games. LA clinched the NL West title last night.

American League

Rays @ Orioles
Odorizzi is 3-1, 4.22 in his last four starts (under 4-0). He is 1-0, 6.10 in two starts vs Baltimore this year. Rays are 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-4

Hellickson is 0-3, 11.81 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Orioles are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6-1

Rays lost six of last ten games; five of their last six road games stayed under. Baltimore lost 13 of last 16 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

New York @ Toronto
Gray is 1-3, 4.38 in his last four starts (under 7-2). New York is 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-1

Biagini is 0-5, 7.41 in his last seven starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Toronto is 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-1

New York won seven of last nine games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Toronto lost three of last five games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.

Twins @ Tigers
Santana is 2-1, 3.90 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 0-1, 9.72 in two starts vs Detroit this year. Twins are 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-7-7

Boyd had a no-hitter in 9th inning in his last start, but he is 1-4, 4.86 in his last six starts; over is 8-4-2 in his last 14 starts. Detroit is 3-8 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-6

Twins lost five of last eight games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten. Detroit is 2-12 in its last 14 games; over is 10-1-1 in their last 12 home games.

Angels @ Astros
Norris threw two shutout innings in his only ’17 start; this is a bullpen game for the Angels — their first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1

Morton is 2-1, 3.38 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Houston is 9-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-2

Angels lost their last five games; their last five road games stayed under. Houston won seven of its last eight games; under is 13-3 in their last 16 home games.

Royals @ While Sox
Duffy is 0-3, 6.43 in his last five starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. He is 0-3, 9.56 vs Chicago this year. Royals are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-4

Covey is 0-3, 10.03 in his last three starts (over 4-4-2). Chicago is 2-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-7-1

Royals are 3-6 in their last nine games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games. White Sox lost three of last five games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.

Rangers @ A’s
Gonzalez is 1-1, 10.45 in three starts for Texas (over 2-1). Rangers won both his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Manaea is 3-2, 5.13 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Oakland is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-13-4

Rangers won four of their last five games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Oakland is 11-3 in its last 14 games; over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.

Indians @ Mariners
Carrasco is 4-0, 1.51 in his last five starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12. Indians are 12-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 21-7-2

Moore is 0-3, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Seattle is 1-5 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 1-5-2

Indians are 27-2 in their last 29 games; over is 3-2 in their last five road tilts. Seattle lost six of its last seven games; under is 13-4 in their last 17.

Interleague

Red Sox @ Reds
Rodriguez is 1-1, 3.06 in his last three starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Boston is 0-6 in his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12

Stephenson is 5-1, 3.69 in his last seven starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Reds are 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-2-2

Boston won seven of last eight games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Cincinnati lost its last four games, three of which went over.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Pitt: Lynn 14-17; Cole 16-15
Wsh-NY: Strasburg 20-6; Syndergaard 2-3
Phil-Atl: Alvarez 0-1; Teheran 14-16
Chi-Mil: Hendricks 11-11; Suter 7-5
Mia-Az: Peters 0-4; Walker 14-12
Colo-SD: Bettis 3-4; Chacin 16-14
SF-LA: Bumgarner 3-13; Ryu 11-11

American League
TB-Balt: Odorizzi 11-15; Hellickson 4-5
NY-Tor: Gray 3-6; Biagini 5-11
Minn-Det: Santana 18-13; Boyd 9-14
LA-Hst: Norris 1-0; Morton 14-9
KC-Chi: Duffy 10-12; Covey 3-7
Tex-A’s: Gonzalez 2-1; Manaea 13-15
Clev-Sea: Carrasco 22-8; Moore 2-6

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Rodriguez 12-10; Stephenson 6-3

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
StL-Pitt: Lynn 9-31; Cole 10-31
Wsh-NY: Strasburg 4-26; Syndergaard 2-5
Phil-Atl: Alvarez 0-1; Teheran 9-30
Chi-Mil: Hendricks 7-22; Suter 1-12
Mia-Az: Peters 2-4; Walker 7-26
Colo-SD: Bettis 3-7; Chacin 11-30
SF-LA: Bumgarner 4-16; Ryu 8-22

American League
TB-Balt: Odorizzi 7-26; Hellickson 2-9
NY-Tor: Gray 2-9; Biagini 6-16
Minn-Det: Santana 7-31; Boyd 8-23
LA-Hst: Norris 0-1; Morton 3-23
KC-Chi: Duffy 5-22; Covey 7-10
Tex-A’s: Gonzalez 1-3; Manaea 10-28
Clev-Sea: Carrasco 5-30; Moore 1-8

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Rodriguez 6-22; Stephenson 3-9

Umpires

National League
StL-Pitt: Over is 5-2 in last seven Miller games.
Wsh-NY: Over is 6-3 in last nine Foster games.
Phil-Atl: Five of last six Vanover games went over.
Chi-Mil: Over is 6-3 in last nine Guccione games.
Mia-Az: Over is 7-4-2 in last 13 Woodring games.
Colo-SD: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Blakney games.
SF-LA: Underdogs won five of last six Everitt games.

American League
TB-Balt: Underdogs won five of last seven Morales games.
NY-Tor: Under is 9-3 in last dozen Bucknor games.
Minn-Det: Favorites won eight of last ten Randazzo games.
LA-Hst: Road team won last seven HGibson games.
KC-Chi: Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Emmel games.
Tex-A’s: Four of last five Cuzzi games stayed under.
Clev-Sea: Under is 8-4 in last dozen Gibson games.

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Favorites won last six West games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 73-70 NL, favorites +$216
Total: 154-130 AL, favorites -$64

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-62-8
Total: Over 145-130-12

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Chicago (-135) at Milwaukee; Total: 9

Another tough loss for the Brewers yesterday, as they fell by one run to the Cubs. They also lost a game in the Wild Card chase since Colorado won, so now the Rockies have a two-game lead over Milwaukee in the playoff push. Kyle Hendricks takes the hill today for the Cubs and Brent Suter will look to pitch the Brewers to a win.

Since returning from the DL, Kyle Hendricks looks more like last year’s version and more like what we have come to expect. The right-hander owns a 2.42 ERA with a 3.77 FIP and a 3.78 xFIP. He’s struck out 57 and walked 17 in his 67 innings of work. He’s carrying an 88.3 percent LOB%, though, so there are some clear signs of regression, especially because the Cubs have regressed defensively from last year’s historic pace. Hendricks has a .280 BABIP against in that span, so he’s still allowing hits at a reasonable level and his HR/FB% is right around league average. The high LOB% with a normal set of peripherals doesn’t seem sustainable to me, but he’s doing it and maybe we just need to accept that, especially against a Brewers lineup that hasn’t done much offensively for quite some time.

Brent Suter has a 3.41 ERA with a 3.77 FIP and a 4.17 xFIP in his 71.1 innings of work. He’s made 12 starts and eight relief appearances. As a starter, Suter has a 3.45 ERA across 60 innings and has held opposing batters to a .247/.297/.393 slash line with a .295 wOBA. He’s been extremely effective in that role. Unfortunately, he hasn’t worked deeper than five innings since August 2, so we won’t get to see Suter for a long period of time. He did work seven shutout against the Cubs on July 28 in his longest start of the season, so maybe there’s a glimmer of hope that he can push it a little farther.

Even with the length concerns from Suter, I’ve got a lean to Milwaukee here. Hendricks’s LOB% is too high for my liking and I have to consider the possibility of regression. The Brewers bullpen has mostly been solid in recent months and this one should be set up for Milwaukee to go to the right guys and maybe even with a lead. Along with the Brewers, I’d have some interest in the under. These are two guys that showcase really good command and a knack for inducing weak contact.

St. Louis (-120) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8

My guess here is that we see Pittsburgh steamed into a favorite. That movement is already coming with some shops, including Pinnacle, down into the -115 range. There isn’t a lot of faith in Lance Lynn in the investment community because Lynn has a 3.09 ERA with a 4.76 FIP and a 4.72 xFIP. Lynn has done a great job of stranding runners and has a very low BABIP against, but he’s given up some home runs and hasn’t been able to post the same strikeout rates that he did before Tommy John surgery. Lynn’s home run rate, in all honesty, isn’t that bad. It is a career high for him and it matches what he did in 2014-15 when he worked 279 innings, but 26 homers in 180.2 innings isn’t that big of a deal in a season like this.

PNC Park is a good fit for Lynn since it suppresses power from both righties and lefties. Lynn owns righties, but has some trouble with his splits against lefties. Still, the market sees that big ERA/FIP/xFIP discrepancy and simply wants to fade. The Cardinals are only 14-17 in Lynn’s 31 starts, so those that have faded him and St. Louis have made a modest profit, but nothing overly significant.

Gerrit Cole has a 4.13 ERA with a 4.16 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP. His command has fallen off dramatically this season with a spike from 6.8 percent to 16.1 percent in the HR/FB% category, even though his GB% is about the same as last year. Cole’s K/BB peripherals are pretty similar, but he hasn’t been able to avoid the long ball. He’s worked 192 innings and will likely have his second career 200-inning season, which is a big step for the Pirates right-hander. He may be running out of gas, though. Cole has walked 13 in his last four outings. He’s allowed 14 runs and that includes eight shutout innings against the Cubs on September 6.

I’ll wait this one out and play back on St. Louis when the line peaks. Lynn is not as untrustworthy in my eyes as he is in the eyes of the market and I’m still in full-on fade Pittsburgh mode.

Miami at Arizona (-180); Total: 10

If you’re looking for a big time underdog to make some noise, I would consider the Diamondbacks. Peters ran into some serious regression last time out with eight runs allowed on nine hits. He’s had some problems with walks, but he’s mostly been able to work around them as a short-statured left-hander with a unique delivery. It isn’t a sexy profile right now and one ERA blow-up has given Peters some signs of positive regression with a 5.40 ERA, a 3.66 FIP, and a 4.05 xFIP.

The Diamondbacks have been hitting lefties lately, but, overall, they’ve been better against righties. I think Peters can be in a bit of a bounce back spot today. I am a bit concerned that he has control issues and Chase Field is notorious for pitchers having grip issues with the baseball (hence the Humidor starting next year), but I think there’s enough margin here to look at Peters and say that he could be an asset.

Taijuan Walker has some negative regression in his profile. Walker has a 3.45 ERA with a 4.06 FIP and a 4.40 xFIP. He’s had a fine season and has a good set of peripherals, but he has been a little bit fortunate in some of his metrics with a 74.9 percent LOB% and a .287 BABIP against. He has been a bit worse at home than on the road from a home runs allowed perspective. His SLG percentage allowed at home is .431 compared to .385 on the road. But, it is still a good performance from a guy changing park factors, especially to go from a pretty decent one to a very bad one for pitchers.

I’d take a look at the Marlins here, though. Miami has a lot of offensive pieces that should also play up in the conditions at Chase Field. The total of 10 would suggest an expectation to me that Miami can also score some runs here. I know Peters is coming off of a bad start, but getting humbled isn’t always a bad thing for a rookie.

Obviously Miami doesn’t win this game often, but with a break-even percentage of 35.7 percent, I think this is closer to a 60/40 game than the line would indicate.

MLB Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (+150, 9.5)

We are in the home stretch of the MLB season and the Twins continue to prove their doubters wrong, as they continue to maintain their lead for the second American League Wild Card spot. They’ll look to extend that lead when they continue their four-game set against the Tigers in Detroit.

The Twins, who are ahead of their challengers by 3.5-games in the wild-card race, have taken the first two games of this series by a score of 19-4 and will send Ervin Santana to the mound in hopes of securing a series win versus the AL Central rival Tigers.

Santana has had quite a nice bounce-back season for the Twins, going 15-8 with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP and he’s even better on the road. The veteran right-hander is 9-3 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP away from Target Field.

Meanwhile, the Tigers counter with Matt Boyd. Boyd is coming off the best start of his career when he pitched a complete game one-hitter against the White Sox the last time out. But before that, the Tigers lost his seven previous starts, where he pitched to a 6.61 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP.

Expect the Twins surprisingly balance lineup to stay hot in this game, in fact, so much so that taking a look at the runline is the way to go. The Twins are one of the best teams in baseball against the runline on the road this season at 48-28.

Pick: Twins -1.5 (-100)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-110, 7)

It’s a battle of first versus worst as the Giants and Dodgers continue their three-game set Saturday in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers took the opener 4-2, but it was just their third win in their last 17 division games and it won’t get any easier as they face Madison Bumgarner in Game 2 and are just -110 at home in this matchup.

While it’s been a down year for the Giants, Bumgarner continues to do his thing. Despite a bit of rough patch, he still has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with 96 strikeouts and just 19 walks. Plus, the MadBum always gets up for matchups with the Dodgers. The southpaw is 14-9 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 27 career starts versus Los Angeles.

The Dodgers counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP at home this season. Ryu faces a terrible Giants lineup that ranks dead last in home runs and OPS and 29th in runs scored per game.

Don’t be scared of the low total, expect a low scoring game here.

Pick: Under 7

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 153-139-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (14-4, 2.60 ERA, $)

Stephen Strasburg has been filthy over the last month.

In his last five starts, he has a record of 4-0 (5-0 team win/loss), thrown 35 innings allowing only one run (0.26 ERA), has 41 strikeouts, and only 6 walks.

Strasburg and the Nationals are -204 favorites today in Queens against Noah Syndergaard (remember him?) and the Mets.

Slumping: Chad Bettis, Colorado Rockies (1-3, 6.23 ERA, $)

It has certainly been a bumpy return to Major League Baseball for Chad Bettis. The Rockies’right-hander has made just seven starts after missing the majority of the season while he was undergoing cancer treatment. In his first start on August 14th, he pitched seven scoreless innings. Since things have been a mess.

In his last three starts, he is 1-1 with an ERA of 9.28. The crown jewel of this slump being his last appearance, where he only got one out and allowed five earned runs.

Bettis will try and turn things around tonight in San Diego, where the Rockies take on the Padres. The Rockies are available at -101.

Saturday's Top Trends

* Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. -160 vs. Angels.
* Under is 10-0-1 in Brewers last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cubs/Brewers Total: 9
* Red Sox are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings with Reds. -139 at Cincinnati.
* Indians are 12-1 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. -193 at Mariners.
* Under is 10-1 in Chad Bettis' last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Rockies/Padres Total: 8.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There should be no precipitation impacting any action on the field today across Major League Baseball.

The only notable wind in the forecast is at Oakland Coliseum where the Athletics are hosting the Rangers and will be greeted with a 10-15 mile per hour wind. The total for tonight’s game is currently at 9.5.

Ump Of The Day

Tripp Gibson III will be calling balls and strikes today at Minute Maid Park for this afternoon’s game between the Astros and Angels.

Gibson has been pretty even down the middle this season, 13-14 home team W/L and 15-12 O/U. However, the last few weeks with Gibson behind the plate has been bad news for backers of home teams. The road team has won seven straight when Gibson has the gear on.

The Angels are +147 road pups today.