MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, September 22nd, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cardinals @ Pirates
Wacha is 3-1, 2.81 in his last four starts (under 3-1). He is 2-1, 2.89 vs Pittsburgh this year. Cardinals are 5-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-11-4

Nova is 0-4, 8.84 in his last four starts; under is 11-5-1 in his last 17 starts. He is 1-2, 4.82 vs St Louis this year— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-16-2

Cardinals won their last three games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. St Louis is 10-6 in last 16 road series openers. Pittsburgh lost seven of last eight games; under is 12-3 in their last 15 games. Pirates are 1-4 in last five home series openers.

Nationals @ Mets
Jackson is 0-3, 13.50 in his last three starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven starts. Washington is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6-2

deGrom is 1-0, 2.07 in his last two starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts. He is 3-1, 2.54 vs Washington this season. New York is 8-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-11-2

Washington won three of last four games; under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games. Nationals are 17-7 in road series openers. Mets are 2-8 in their last ten games (over 7-3). New York is 12-7 in last 19 home series openers.

Phillies @ Braves
Lively is 2-1, 3.00 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1). Phillies are 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-3

Newcomb is 1-1, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Braves are 4-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11

Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten games; under is 4-1-2 in their last seven. Phils are 2-9 in last 11 road series openers. Atlanta lost five of last seven games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Braves are 3-8 in last 11 home series openers.

Cubs @ Brewers
Lackey is 1-1, 1.93 in his last three starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. He is 1-2, 3.79 vs Milwaukee this year. Cubs are 8-5 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 9-17-2

Woodruff is 2-2, 3.28 in six starts this year (under 5-1). Brewers are 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2-1

Cubs won eight of last nine games; under is 4-1 in their last five. Milwaukee won six of last nine games; four of their last five home games went over.

Marlins @ Diamondbacks
Conley is 1-2, 5.26 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Miami is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3

Greinke is 3-0, 1.82 in his last five starts; under is 6-0-2 in his last eight. Arizona is 16-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 19-6-5

Marlins won four of last five games; their last eight road games went over. Miami is 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Arizona lost three of last four games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Snakes are 16-8 in home series openers.

Rockies @ Padres
Gray is 2-0, 1.50 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. He is 1-0, 3.27 in two starts vs San Diego this season. Colorado is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-2

Lyles is 1-1, 8.78 in three starts for San Diego (over 3-0). Padres won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Colorado lost its last four games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. San Diego won four of its last five games (under 6-3).

Giants @ Dodgers
Samardzija is 0-2, 4.35 in his last three starts, under is 4-1 in his last five. Giants are 6-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-15-7

Hill is 1-4, 1-4, 3.77 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 1-0, 1.69 in two starts vs SF this season. Dodgers are 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-4

Giants won their last three games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. SF is 4-9 in last 13 road series openers. Dodgers are 6-15 in their last 21 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games. LA is 16-8 in home series openers.

American League

Rays @ Orioles
Cobb is 2-1, 2.81 in his last three starts; ; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. He is 1-1, 5.40 in three starts vs Baltimore this year. Tampa Bay is 8-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-3

Jimenez is 1-3, 8.59 in his last five starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Baltimore is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-4

Rays lost six of last nine games; their last five road games stayed under. Baltimore lost 12 of last 15 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

New York @ Toronto
Tanaka is 4-1, 3.94 in his last five starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. He is 2-0, 4.15 in three starts vs Toronto this season. NY is 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-11-2

Estrada is 4-0, 3.77 in his last five starts, last three of which stayed under. He is 2-1, 5.73 in four starts vs New York this season. Blue Jays are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-15-3

New York won seven of last eight games; under is 4-1 in their last five road games. NY is 13-9 in last 22 road series openers. Toronto lost three of last four games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Blue Jays are 10-15 in home series openers.

Twins @ Tigers
Gibson is 5-0, 2.33 in his last six starts (under 4-2). He is 1-2, 8.68 in four starts vs Detroit this season. Minnesota is 9-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-13-1

Norris is making his first start since July 5; he is 0-3, 9.88 in his last three starts. Over is 4-1 in his last five starts. Detroit is 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-2

Twins lost five of last seven games; under is 6-3 in their last nine. Detroit is 2-11 in its last 13 games; over is 10-1 in their last 11 home games.

Angels @ Astros
Richards is 0-2, 2.50 in four starts this year (under 3-1). Angels won both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3

Verlander is 3-0, 0.86 in thee starts for Houston (under 3-0). Astros won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-0-1

Angels lost their last four games; their last four road games stayed under. Halos 3-7 in last ten road series openers. Houston won six of its last seven games; under is 12-3 in their last 15 home games. Astros are 8-3 in last 11 home series openers.

Royals @ While Sox
Hammel is 0-2, 11.58 in his last two starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. KC is 5-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-14-7

Lopez is 3-3, 5.13 in six starts this year (over 3-3). Chicago lost two of his three home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3

Royals are 3-5 in their last eight games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. KC is 11-14 in road series openers. White Sox lost three of last four games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six home games. Chicago is 6-9 in last 15 home series openers.

Rangers @ A’s
Martinez is 0-3, 7.09 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Texas is 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-9-3

Graveman is 2-0, 3.96 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-0, 2.61 in three starts vs Texas this season. Oakland is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-6

Rangers won their last four games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Texas is 7-4 in last 11 road series openers. Oakland is 10-3 in its last 13 games; over is 8-1 in their last nine home games. A’s are 4-9 in last 13 home series openers.

Indians @ Mariners
Bauer is 6-1, 3.19 in his last seven starts; under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 starts. Cleveland is 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-4

Ramirez is 0-2, 4.76 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Mariners are 0-3 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 5-4

Indians are 27-1 in their last 28 games; over is 3-1 in their last four road tilts. Cleveland won its last seven road series openers. Seattle lost its last six games; under is 12-4 in their last 16. Mariners are 3-9 in last 12 home series openers.

Interleague

Red Sox @ Reds
Porcello is 1-1, 2.19 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Boston is 7-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-19-3

Romano is 1-1, 1.93 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Reds are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-3

Boston won six of last seven games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. Red Sox are 9-6 in last 15 road series openers. Cincinnati lost its last three games, all of which went over. Reds are 6-2 in last eight home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Pitt: Wacha 14-14; Nola 13-16
Wsh-NY: Jackson 5-6; deGrom 17-13
Phil-Atl: Lively 6-7; Newcomb 6-11
Chi-Mil: Lackey 17-10; Woodruff 3-3
Mia-Az: Conley 9-9; Greinke 18-12
Colo-SD: Gray 11-7; Lyles 2-1
SF-LA: Samardzija 13-17; Hill 13-10

American League
TB-Balt: Cobb 14-14; Jimenez 12-12
NY-Tor: Tanaka 15-13; Estrada 15-16
Minn-Det: Gibson 16-11; Norris 7-9
LA-Hst: Richards 2-2; Verlander 3-0 (13-15)
KC-Chi: Hammel 10-20; Lopez 3-3
Tex-A’s: Martinez 7-9; Graveman 7-10
Clev-Sea: Bauer 17-12; Ramirez 3-6

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Porcello 14-17; Romano 6-8

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
StL-Pitt: Wacha 4-28; Nola 10-29
Wsh-NY: Jackson 5-11; deGrom 9-30
Phil-Atl: Lively 4-13; Newcomb 5-17
Chi-Mil: Lackey 15-27; Woodruff 1-6
Mia-Az: Conley 7-18; Greinke 12-30
Colo-SD: Gray 4-18; Lyles 1-3
SF-LA: Samardzija 12-30; Hill 7-23

American League
TB-Balt: Cobb 4-28; Jimenez 7-24
NY-Tor: Tanaka 11-28; Estrada 10-31
Minn-Det: Gibson 9-27; Norris 3-16
LA-Hst: Richards 1-4; Verlander 8-31
KC-Chi: Hammel 6-30; Lopez 1-6
Tex-A’s: Martinez 4-16; Graveman 8-17
Clev-Sea: Bauer 4-29; Ramirez 3-9

Interleague
Bos-Cin: Porcello 9-31; Romano 4-7-3

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 73-69 NL, favorites +$116
Total: 153-130 AL, favorites -$164

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-62-7
Total: Over 145-130-11

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Tampa Bay (-115) at Baltimore; Total: 9.5

It is amazing that the Orioles were able to stick around in the playoff chase for as long as they were with the rotation that they have. Another shining example of their lack of starting pitcher can be seen on Friday with Ubaldo Jimenez taking the ball for the 25th time as a starter. The Rays will counter with Alex Cobb.

Cobb has had a fine season, but, most importantly, he has been healthy for a large portion of it. Cobb has a 3.63 ERA with a 4.15 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP. He’s worked 173.1 innings of work and has gotten several of his numbers back to his pre-injury state. The strikeout rate hasn’t come back, but the command has been pretty good. What’s also nice to se is that Cobb has maintained his first half pace into the second half and, in some respects, has actually pitched better. One thing that does concern me a bit in this start is that Cobb has reverse platoon splits, which means that he actually fares better against lefties than righties. Righties are batting .269/.304/.429 compared to a .222/.298/.366 slash for lefties. The primary producers for the Orioles are all right-handed hitters. It isn’t the largest sample size, but righties on the road are batting .289/.330/.459 against Cobb. Tropicana Field is a pretty good yard for pitchers and Cobb has certainly fared a lot better at home. In 84 home innings, opposing hitters are batting .211/.255/.351. In 89.1 road innings, they are batting .282/.341/.447.

I don’t have a ton of interest in backing Ubaldo Jimenez and his 6.57 ERA with a 5.42 FIP and a 4.49 xFIP, but there are some reasons to back him. All of the Cobb information above falls into that category, but I can also make a case for Jimenez because of how bad the Rays offense has been. As bad as Jimenez is, and he is bad, he’s facing a lineup that ranks 30th in second-half wOBA at .293 and ranks 29th in park-adjusted wRC+ at 82, which means that the Rays have been 18 percent below league average. There is a major contact quality issue on this ballclub. Unless guys are hitting home runs, there isn’t much in the form of hard contact. Even then, with 81 home runs, which ranks 14th, the Rays are 29th in SLG.

I’d wait this line out and let it climb and then come back on the Orioles when the line peaks. I can’t trust this Tampa Bay offense against any pitcher, even one as bad as Jimenez and Baltimore is a tricky matchup for Cobb.

Boston (-135) at Cincinnati; Total: 9.5

The Red Sox lose a hitter in the lineup today when they visit the Reds in the Queen City. That means Rick Porcello will have to bat. Sal Romano will go on the other side for the home team. Porcello is a guy that we successfully faded earlier in the season, but he has pitched a bit better in the second half. He’s still a guy that has allowed a high level of contact quality, as evidenced by the fact that lefties are batting .281/.327/.516 and righties are batting .286/.323/.469 on the year. Both sides have taken good swings against Porcello and that’s why he has a 4.46/4.49/4.41 pitcher slash in his 193.2 innings of work.

I think there are some fatigue issues present for Porcello. He was a pretty good command artist up until this year. The control has always been there, but he worked 223 innings last season plus a playoff start and has now worked 193.2 innings. Porcello doesn’t turn 29 until after Christmas, but he’s already worked 1,662 innings in his MLB career. Many believe that 2,000 is when stuff starts to decline and health starts to become a major concern. Perhaps that threshold will change as we develop more methods of keeping pitchers healthy and have higher success rates on medical procedures, but Porcello is a guy that could decline quickly in his early 30s. I’m sort of sensing a Yovani Gallardo type of career path for him. Don’t hold me to that, but some of the signs are there.

Sal Romano isn’t grabbing many headlines, but the rook just might be figuring some things out. Romano has worked 14 times across 77.1 innings with a 4.07/4.19/4.46 pitcher slash. He made the jump from Double-A to The Show, so an adjustment period isn’t the biggest surprise. Dating back to July 23, Romano has worked 65.1 innings with a 3.44 ERA, a 3.81 FIP, and a 4.15 xFIP. If we limit that sample to his last six starts, Romano has a 2.09/3.52/3.94. He’s figuring out this pitching thing a little bit and that is a good sign for the Reds going forward. They have some young position player upside, but could use some arms.

This number is too high. The Reds have a solid lineup full of guys that can capitalize on Porcello’s location mistakes. The Red Sox only have a .307 wOBA in the second half and an 86 wRC+. They rank 28th in home runs. This is not a particularly strong offensive ballclub and I think there is a misconception out there about them.

I’m looking to play the Reds today. I think Romano is a little bit underrated now based on his overall slash line from a handful of rough outings.

Chicago (-115) at Milwaukee; Total: 9

One of the things that I have admired all season long about Milwaukee is the team’s resilience. They haven’t let losing streaks snowball and have mostly bounced back in tough spots. They’re in a tough spot today. Yesterday’s loss was particularly devastating. With Corey Knebel unavailable, the Brewers blew the save in the ninth and then lost in the 10th on a Kris Bryant dinger. The loss wasted another good start from Zach Davies and it cost the Brewers the chance to be tied with Colorado for the second Wild Card spot.

How will they bounce back today? John Lackey goes for the Cubs and Brandon Woodruff goes for the Beermakers. Lackey is not having a strong season. He has a 4.62 ERA with a 5.26 FIP and a 4.57 xFIP. Lackey has struggled, but so, too, has the Milwaukee offense. The Brewers are 24th in second-half wOBA and are tied for 28th in wRC+. This is an offense that hasn’t provided much margin for error for the pitching staff, which is why Milwaukee is scratching and clawing for a playoff berth instead of having one locked up.

Lackey has allowed 34 home runs this season, but he has been much more effective in the second half. Opposing offenses hit .258/.322/.516 against him prior to the All-Star Break, but just .231/.306/.394 in the second half to date. We’ll see if he, like many others, can hold the Brewers at bay today.

This is a tricky spot for Brandon Woodruff. The 24-year-old rookie has been effective in his six starts with a 3.28/3.69/4.35 pitcher slash. He’ll be facing the Cubs for the first time, which could give him a bit of an advantage, but after allowing just four runs over his first four starts and 23.2 innings, he has allowed nine runs on 15 hits over his last two starts covering 12 innings. Perhaps the book is out on him with some better advance scouting reports.

I’d be looking to take the Cubs tonight. The Brewers have all the pressure. Not to say that they can’t live up to it, but it’s a tough spot for Woodruff to go up against such a powerful lineup, especially because his own lineup hasn’t provided much in the form of run support.

Cubs, Brewers continue to battle on Friday
By: StatFox.com

The Brewers will be trying to keep their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Cubs on Friday.

The Cubs and Brewers are battling for the top spot in the NL Central, but Chicago is kind of running away with this thing. The Cubs beat the Brewers in extra innings on Thursday and that win extended their lead in the division to 4.5 games. If Milwaukee is going to have any chance of making it to the postseason then the team will probably need to win these next three games against Chicago. There is not much wiggle room with that either, as the Brewers only play nine more games this year. The starters in this meeting on Friday are going to be RHP John Lackey (11-11, 4.62 ERA, 144 K) for Chicago and RHP Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 3.28 ERA, 28 K) for Milwaukee. The Cubs are 35-19 against the money line over the past three seasons in road games versus starting pitchers that give up 0.5 or fewer homers per start. Milwaukee is, however, fortunate enough to be facing a Chicago team that is just 1-6 against the money line when Lackey is pitching against an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse on the year.

The Cubs are probably one or two wins over the Brewers away from securing themselves a spot in the postseason, and you can only imagine how badly this team wants to repeat as World Series champs. It has not quite been the year that Chicago was hoping for, but all would be forgotten once the team makes it to the playoffs. From there, the Cubs will still have as good of a shot at winning as anybody. Lackey will be the guy tasked with earning them the win on Friday, and the righty was actually brilliant in his most recent start against Milwaukee. Chicago lost that game 2-0, but Lackey allowed only two earned runs in seven innings of work in that one. He struck out nine batters and the Cubs would definitely love another performance like that from him here. Offensively, the team will be counting on 3B Kris Bryant and 1B Anthony Rizzo to produce. Both guys came up big on Thursday, as Bryant was 3-for-4 with a homer and two RBI and Rizzo was 2-for-5 with a triple and an RBI.

The Brewers are going to be a very desperate team when they take the field on Friday, but they also could be a pretty broken one. Milwaukee was up 3-2 heading into the top of the ninth inning on Thursday, but the team was unable to close Chicago out. That type of loss can be very demoralizing for a team that needs wins to make it to the postseason right now. But the Brewers need to do their best to forget and do everything that they can to close this series out the right way. Brandon Woodruff will be the guy starting for Milwaukee in this one and the righty actually pitched pretty well in his last trip to the mound. He allowed just three earned in seven innings of work in a win over Miami. If he can turn in a quality start then he will have done his job here. On offense, it’ll be guys like OF Ryan Braun, 1B Eric Thames, and OF Domingo Santana that you’ll want to keep an eye on. It wouldn’t be surprising if any of the three had big games here.

MLB Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (+153, 8.5)

The Yankees are sitting pretty at the top of the American League Wild Card standings, ahead of the second-place Twins by 6.5-games, as they begin a three-game weekend set in Toronto on Friday night.

The Blue Jays maybe be out of the playoff picture this season, but they will always get up for a division matchup, especially at home. Toronto sends the newly re-signed Marco Estrada to toe the rubber against the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka.

Despite it being a down year for the Blue Jays right-hander, he should have an extra bit of motivation Friday night after signing a one-year $13 million extension to stay with the club in 2018. He has also looked more like the pitcher he was the last two seasons horrendous start to the season.

Estrada is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP, while allowing an opponents on base percentage of .192. Plus in his last start versus the Yankees back on Aug. 10 also in Toronto, he threw seven shutout innings, allowing just five hits.

Meanwhile his counterpart, Tanaka, has no slouch to say the least. The Yankees have won six of his last eight starts, where he owns a 3.24 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Tanaka has also owned the Blue Jays in his career, going 8-3 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 13 starts.

There could be plenty of swings and misses tonight.

Pick: Under 8.5

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics (-124, 9.5)

You may not realize it, but the Rangers are still battling for a wild card spot as we head down the home stretch of the 2017 MLB season. Texas looks to keep its slim postseason hopes alive when they begin a three-game against the A’s Friday night in Oakland.

All looked lost in Texas after a five-game losing streak last week, but they’ve bounced back to win its last four to sit just 2.5-games behind the Twins for the second Wild Card Spot in the American League. The Rangers hand the ball to right hander Nick Martinez as they try to win their fifth straight.

Unfortunately, Martinez has had a bit of a rough go of late. A reason for that may be that he has bounced back-and-forth between the rotation and the bullpen this season. Texas has lost his last five starts, where he has pitched to a 7.09 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.

Martinez faces an A’s team that has won five straight at home thanks in large part to a lineup which is notably much more comfortable in the confines of O.co Coliseum. At home the A’s rank third in home runs and ninth in home runs and OPS.

The A’s send young righty Kendall Graveman to counter Martinez. Graveman has some bumpy patches in his 2017 campaign, but not usually at home, where he is 4-0 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in nine starts.

Oakland deals a blow to Texas’ playoff hopes.

Pick: A’s -124

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 152-138-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

Maybe a change of scenery is all Justin Verlander needed because, pitching in a pennant race sure looks good on him. The Astros newest starter has been fantastic since coming over from the Tigers.

Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and a crazy good 0.62 WHIP, while striking out 26 and walking just three since switching jerseys at the end of August. Verlander has actually won five of his last six starts with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP with 52 strikeouts and with seven walks.

Verlander and the Astros are currently -166 home favorites for their matchup with the Angels.

Slumping: Jordan Lyles, San Diego Padres

On the other side of that coin, Jordan Lyles wen from the competing Rockies bullpen to the Padres rotation and suffice to say, it has not gone well.

In three starts with the Padres, Lyles is 1-1 with a 8.78 ERA and a WHIP of 2.02, while allowing an OBP of over .400.

Lyles and the Padres are currently +152 home dogs against his former team, the Rockies, on Friday night.

Friday's Top Trends

* Pirates are 2-12 in their last 14 overall. Pirates +135 vs. Cardinals.
* Orioles are 3-12 in their last 15 overall. Orioles -105 vs. Rays.
* Dodgers are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. National League West.
* Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Twins and Tigers. O/U: 10.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

It should be a clear fall night for baseball on Friday, but there will be a bit of a pitchers wind in New York and San Diego tonight.

Ump Of The Day

Carlos Torres: After starting the season as a bit of an Over Umpire, with it cashing 10 times in his first 16 games, the switch has flipped and he is now on quite the Under run. The Under has gone 8-2 in the last 10 games he has been calling balls and strikes. This despite the fact there is an average of 9.73 runs per game scored when he officiates and he has an average strike percentage of 63.47. Torres will be behind the plate for tonight's game in Milwaukee between the Cubs and Brewers. The total is currently 9.0.