MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 21st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Dodgers @ Phillies
Maeda is 0-1, 9.82 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Dodgers lost his last four road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-7-3
Leiter is 1-3, 8.18 in his last four starts (under 6-2-1). Phillies are 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6
Dodgers are 5-20 in their last 25 games (under 5-1-2 in last eight). Phillies won seven of last nine games, under is 4-1-1 in their last six.
Cardinals @ Reds
Martinez is 1-2, 4.64 in his last five starts; over is 10-5 in his last 15. He is 0-2, 7.71 against the Reds this year. Cardinals are 6-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-12-3
Bailey is 1-2, 4.18 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1). Reds are 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-1
Cardinals lost four of last five games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Reds won four of last seven games; under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 home games.
Nationals @ Braves
Roark is 3-1, 3.52 in his last five starts; under is 10-2 in his last 12. He is 1-1, 7.36 vs Atlanta this season. Washington is 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-11-2
Dickey is 0-2, 10.68 in his last three starts; his last five starts went over. He is 0-2, 5.92 in four starts vs Washington this year. Braves are 10-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-11-5
Nationals won their last five road games; under is 6-2-2 in their last ten games. Atlanta lost five of last six games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 home games.
Cubs @ Brewers
Arrieta is 4-1, 2.48 in his last six starts; over is 5-3-2 in his last ten. He is 2-0, 2.77 against the Brewers this year. Cubs are 9-9 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 15-8-5
Davies is 1-2, 4.86 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-2, 3.96 against the Cubs this season. Milwaukee is 8-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-6
Cubs won seven of last eight games; under is 3-1 in their last four. Chicago is 10-4 in last 14 road series openers. Milwaukee won six of last eight games; their last four home games went over. Brewers are 8-4 in last 12 home series openers.
Rockies @ Padres
Anderson is 2-2, 4.50 in his last six starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Colorado is 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6
Richard is 1-2, 4.32 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. He is 1-2, 11.15 against Colorado this season. Padres are 7-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-15-2
Colorado lost its last three games; under is 5-1 in its last six games. San Diego won three of its last four games (under 5-3). Padres are 14-11 in home series openers.
American League
Rays @ Orioles
Andriese is 0-2, 12.27 in his last three starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Rays are 1-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-4
Hellickson is 0-3, 11.81 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Orioles are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6-1
Rays Baltimore lost 12 of last 14 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven. Baltimore is 2-11 in its last 13 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven. Orioles are 5-9 in last 14 home series openers.
Royals @ Blue Jays
Vargas is 2-0, 3.60 in his last two starts; under is 7-4 in his last 11. Royals are 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-3
Happ is 3-0. 4.00 in his last three starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Toronto is 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-1
Royals lost five of last seven games; under is 6-2 in their last eight. Toronto won seven of last 11 games (under 8-3).
Twins @ Tigers
Mejia is 0-3, 5.52 in his last seven starts; under is 7-3-1 in his last 11. Twins are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-4
Zimmerman is 1-3, 9.74 in his last four starts; over is 7-4 in his last 11. He is 0-2, 10.80 against the Twins this year. Detroit is 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-15
Twins lost five of last six games; under is 6-2 in their last eight. Minnesota is 5-8 in last 13 road series openers. Detroit is 2-10 in its last 12 games; over is 9-1 in their last ten home games. Tigers are 1-10 in last 11 home series openers.
White Sox @ Astros
Fulmer is 1-1, 5.27 in three starts this year (over 1-1-1). Chicago lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1
Keuchel is 2-2, 4.62 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Astros are 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-6-2
White Sox lost four of last five games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Houston won its last six games; under is 11-3 in their last 14 home games.
Indians @ Angels
Salazar is 1-1, 4.74 in his last five starts; over is 6-4-1 in his last 11. Indians are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-3
Bridwell is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts; under is 10-3 in his last 13. Angels are 7-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-4-3
Cleveland is 26-1 in its last 27 games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Angels are 3-9 in last 12 games (under 9-3).
Rangers @ Mariners
Hamels is 1-3, 6.28 in his last five starts (over 12-7-2). He is 1-0, 5.82 in three starts vs Seattle this season. Texas is 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-3-2
Paxton is 1-1, 5.27 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Mariners are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-4
Rangers lost seven of last 11 games; over is 11-6-1 in their last 18 games. Seattle lost its last five games; under is 11-4 in their last 15.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
LA-Phil: Maeda 15-9; Leiter 4-5
StL-Cin: Martinez 15-15; Bailey 6-10
Wsh-Atl: Roark 17-10; Dickey 15-14
Chi-Mil: Arrieta 15-13; Davies 19-12
Colo-SD: Anderson 6-7; Richard 12-18
American League
TB-Balt: Andriese 6-9; Hellickson 4-5
KC-Tor: Vargas 18-11; Happ 10-13
Minn-Det: Mejia 8-11; Zimmerman 10-17
Chi-Hst: Fulmer 1-2; Keuchel 15-6
Clev-LA: Salazar 8-9; Bridwell 15-2
Tex-Sea: Hamels 12-9; Paxton 13-8
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
LA-Phil: Maeda 9-24; Leiter 5-9
StL-Cin: Martinez 11-30; Bailey 8-16
Wsh-Atl: Roark 10-27; Dickey 7-29
Chi-Mil: Arrieta 8-28; Davies 9-31
Colo-SD: Anderson 1-13; Richard 9-30
American League
TB-Balt: Andriese 9-15; Hellickson 2-9
KC-Tor: Vargas 7-29; Happ 4-23
Minn-Det: Mejia 6-19; Zimmerman 10-27
Chi-Hst: Fulmer 0-3; Keuchel 5-21
Clev-LA: Salazar 7-17; Bridwell 1-17
Tex-Sea: Hamels 9-21; Paxton 2-21
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 73-69 NL, favorites +$116
Total: 153-130 AL, favorites -$164
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-62-7
Total: Over 145-130-11
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Cleveland (-145) at Los Angeles; Total: 8.5
The Indians will send Danny Salazar to the mound for his first start since September 5 when he only lasted six batters and allowed four runs on one hit and two walks. He gave up six runs on 12 hits on August 20 and found himself back on the DL. Don’t expect Salazar to go more than three or four innings in this start. Terry Francona has been scripting the bullpen usage a little bit, so I would expect to see Zach McAllister today. Maybe Shawn Morimando gets into a game. Dan Otero is likely to pitch as well. The Indians won’t have Bryan Shaw, but will have Andrew Miller and Cody Allen if the game is close in the late innings.
You have to keep these things in mind at this stage of the year. As a result, in my estimation, this line is too high. The Indians will be looking to cobble something together for the series finale. They are only one game behind the Dodgers for the best record in baseball, so that is a motivating factor and a driving force at this point in time.
Parker Bridwell is a pretty clear regression candidate with a 3.71 ERA, a 4.56 FIP, and a 4.87 xFIP. Bridwell has worked 102 innings and his fly ball style has played up at Angel Stadium. This is a day game and the shadows can be very tricky for matinees in Anaheim. I wonder if the Indians will have some issues today. Bridwell doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but he does induce a fair amount of weak contact. A lot of people are banking on regression, but I’m not seeing as much of it as others. He’s given up some home runs, but he has a good walk rate and an extreme fly ball rate, so he could be pulling the Marco Estrada.
I’d gamble on the dog today with the Indians heading up to Seattle after this one, which is a favorite trip of a lot of the players per interviews and “Get to Know” segments on social media. They did their job in Anaheim.
Chicago (-135) at Milwaukee; Total: 8.5
Jake Arrieta and Zach Davies square off as a huge four-game weekend set gets underway between the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers trail by 3.5 in the NL Central and by just one game in the Wild Card race. Arrieta has missed 17 days with a hamstring injury. He left his last start on September 4 after 2.1 innings of work. He allowed two home runs and three runs on four hits. With no place to get rehab work in, Arrieta has just been throwing sides and bullpens.
A lot of people probably haven’t noticed, me included, that Arrieta has allowed two earned runs or less in all but two of his starts dating back to the start of July. One of those was that last start when he was clearly hurt. Since July 2, Arrieta has a 2.01 ERA with a 3.77 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP. He’s only allowed seven home runs in that span. He’s living off of a .222 BABIP against and an 83.1 percent LOB%. If he didn’t have some recent examples of this type of good fortune in those two stats, I’d be more worried about regression. Also, if he was facing a better, more consistent lineup.
Speaking of regression, it found Zach Davies last time out. The Brewers right-hander had been in a nice, little groove, but he allowed six runs on eight hits in just four innings of work. Prior to that, Davies had two earned runs or less in nine of his previous 11 starts. Dating back to June 25, Davies has a 2.74 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and a 4.04 xFIP. He’s allowed just four home runs in his last 102 innings of work, which is basically all you need to have success in today’s offensive climate. Davies only has 66 strikeouts in that span, but he’s limited the long ball and has had positive outcomes as a result.
I’d be willing to take a stab on the underdog price because Arrieta is coming off of an extended layoff. He’s typically a pretty good command guy, so there aren’t a ton of worries, but I think you can start with a Milwaukee +125 position and look for a live spot if Arrieta does get nicked for a run or two in the early innings. If it’s more than that, you can just let the +125 ride.
Colorado (-125) at San Diego; Total: 8.5
A small card today with only three games of interest in my estimation. Tyler Anderson goes for the Rockies tonight against Clayton Richard for the Padres. Anderson has made two appearances for the Rockies in their push for the Wild Card. He worked four scoreless innings with just one hit allowed on September 11 and came back to throw six shutout against San Diego on September 16. Anderson has a 5.28 ERA with a 5.01 FIP and a 3.99 xFIP on the season. He has been limited to 73.1 innings due to injury. He missed time from May 30 to June 22 and then again from June 25 to September 11. He was one of last season’s biggest surprises and was expected to be a key cog in this Rockies rotation.
I’m not sure how to approach Anderson right now. I like what I’ve seen in his extended relief outing and this most recent start because he’s kept the ball on the ground and has shown really good command. That’s probably enough to lay the short price today against a bad San Diego team.
Clayton Richard just picked up a contract extension from the Padres. The left-hander has actually been decent this season in his 30 starts with a 4.82 ERA, a 4.32 FIP, and a 3.84 xFIP. Between the contract extension and the high workload, I’m looking to fade Richard today. He’s worked 185 innings this season. He only worked 277.2 innings across all levels from 2013-16 because of injuries. He has pitched well over his last several starts, but this can be a really precarious situation for a pitcher as he reaches new innings thresholds.
The Rockies are a mess right now and it wouldn’t surprise me if they lose, but I think there’s value in this short price.
Tigers host a motivated Twins team
By: StatFox.com
The Tigers will be hoping to spoil the Twins’ chances of making the playoffs with a home victory on Thursday.
The Twins were just swept by the Yankees, so they have some work to do before actually getting themselves into the AL Wild Card Game. Minnesota seemed like a near-lock to make it at the beginning of last week, but things are getting interesting now. The Angels are making a strong push, which means the Twins desperately need to win this series against a Tigers team that has absolutely nothing to play for. Detroit will, however, be trying to play the role of spoiler here. The Tigers can’t possibly want to see a division foe make it to the postseason, so expect them to at least do their best to care here. The starters in this Thursday matchup are going to be LHP Adalberto Mejia (4-6, 4.62 ERA, 77 K) for Minnesota and RHP Jordan Zimmermann (8-12, 6.18 ERA, 96 K) for Detroit. Both guys have not been very good this season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if this game were very high scoring.
Mejia is going to need to pitch well for the Twins on Thursday, as the Angels are only 1.5 games behind in the standings right now. Every game is now extremely important for Minnesota, so the lefty must show up here. Mejia has not pitched well in recent weeks, as he has only pitched a total of 10.0 innings over his past three starts. The Twins need Mejia to work a lot deeper into this one, as they can’t afford to be using all of their bullpen arms only because of him. One good sign for Mejia is that he pitched pretty well the last time he faced the Tigers. That was on Jul. 23, when he allowed only one earned run in 4.1 innings of work. If he were to allow one or two earned in five innings then he will have done his job on Thursday. As for Minnesota’s offense in this one, OF Eddie Rosario and 3B Miguel Sano are two guys that might be able to contribute. The two of them are a combined 7-for-23 with two doubles, two homers, and seven RBI against Zimmermann in their careers.
The Tigers are sending Jordan Zimmermann to the mound on Thursday and the righty has been a disaster since signing a huge contract with Detroit. Zimmermann’s ERA was under 4.00 for his final five years with the Nationals, but he had a 4.87 ERA last year and has a 6.18 ERA this year. The Tigers are hoping that he can pitch well here to give himself momentum heading into 2018, but it’s likely they’ll never get the pitcher back that they wanted from Washington. Still, if Zimmermann can turn in a quality start in this one then the team will have a shot to win. Detroit still has some serious talent offensively, as 3B Nicholas Castellanos, 1B Miguel Cabrera and 2B Ian Kinsler are all guys that can make things happen at the plate. Castellanos is the best of the bunch now, and he’s definitely a guy to keep an eye on here.
MLB Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (+140, 8.5)
The Reds and Cardinals will wrap up their three-game divisional series tonight at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Cards have won the first two games and will be looking for a very important sweep Thursday night.
The Cardinals sit just 2.5-games behind the struggling Rockies for the second National League Wildcard spot and every win, obviously, is critical this time of year.
St. Louis has won six of the last seven meetings with the Reds and will send Carlos "The Clown" Martinez (and his purple hair) to the mound tonight. Martinez was beat up by the Cubs in his last start for seven runs over 5.1 innings of work and he has taken some criticism from the spoiled St. Louis media and fan base. He will be out to prove the critics wrong tonight.
Martinez was in good form heading into his last outing with an ERA of 1.95 and a WHIP of 1.1205 in his four starts prior to Friday's disaster at Wrigley Field. The Cardinals have won five of his seven career starts against the Reds and and tonight presents a perfect bounce-back spot for the hard-throwing righty.
The Reds will counter with veteran Homer Bailey. Great American Ball Park is not an easy place to pitch, and Baily has really struggled at home this season with a personal win/loss record of 1-5, an ERA of 7.78, and a WHIP of 1.68. His last start against the Cardinals was back on Aug 6 when he allowed 10 earned runs in just 3.1 innings of work, in an eventual 13-4 loss for Cincinnati.
The opportunity is there for the Cards to get right back into this National League Wildcard race, and a win tonight would help immensely.
Pick: Cardinals -150
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (+125)
The Nationals have clinched their third National League East title in the last four seasons and are still in the running for the top overall spot in the NL as they go for a three-game sweep of the Braves on Thursday night in Atlanta.
The Nationals took the first two games by a combined score 11-5 and will hand the ball to Tanner Roark in hopes of completing the sweep and inching closer to the Dodgers, who sit at the top of the NL by 3.5-games.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Roark, who is 13-9 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but the right-hander has turned it up lately. The Nationals have won four of his past five starts, where he has pitched to a 3.23 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, while racking up 39 strikeouts to just four walks.
The Nationals have also knocked off five road wins in a row, outscoring their opponents by a score of 28-9 in the process and they try to keep that going when they face Braves’ knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.
The 42-year-old has actually been solid for most of his first season in Atlanta, going 9-10 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.43 ERA, however Dickey has hit a bit of a rough patch. Dickey is 0-2 with a 10.05 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP with as many strikeouts as walks.
This is good value for a team that still has something to play for.
Pick: Nationals -135
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 151-137-15
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Parker Bridwell, Los Angeles Angels (8-2, 3.71 ERA, $1644)
Parker Bridwell is going to be the ace of this Angels' pitching staff for a very long time. The young right-hander has made 17 career starts at the major league level and the Angels have won 15 of those games.
Bridwell is the runaway leader in our Starter Money statistic at $1644, with Drew Pomeranz in second place but very far behind at $1049.
The rookie starter draws a tough assignment this afternoon as a +120 home dog against Danny Salazar and the red-hot Cleveland Indians.
Slumping: Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers (8-12, 6.18 ERA, $-478)
Right-hander Jordan Zimmermann has been bad all season for the Tigers who are in desperate need of a full rebuild - and that rebuild should start will dumping Zimmermann off their pitching staff.
Over Zimmermann's last five starts he is 1-3 with an ERA of 11.03 and a WHIP of 2.239. He makes $18 million this season and is scheduled to make $24 million in 2018. It doesn't really seem worth it, does it?
Zimmermann and the Tigers are +110 underdogs at home against Adalberto Mejia and the Twins tonight.
Thursday's Top Trends
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 5-20 in their last 25 overall. OFF.
* The Cleveland Indians have won 26 of their last 27 games overall. -138 today @ Angels.
* The Washington Nationals are 39-16 in the last 55 meetings with the Atlanta Braves -137 today @ ATL.
* The Chicago Cubs are 17-4 in their last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter. -128 today @ Brewers (Davies).
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Precipitation should not be an issue for any of today's games on the MLB schedule. There are thunderstorms expected late tonight in Detroit, but the game between the Twins and Tigers should be long over by the time that system rolls through.
There is a 10-12 mile per hour wind expected this afternoon in Anaheim where the Indians will be taking on the Angels. The total opened at 8 and has been bumped up slightly to 8.5.
There will be a 9-12 mile per hour wind blowing in from the Western Metal Supply Company in left field at Petco park in San Diego tonight. The total for tonight's game between the Padres and Rockies in currently listed at 8.5.