Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, September 20th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

INDIANS AT ANGELS
PLAY: ANGELS +107

Josh Tomlin and Ricky Nolasco match up tonight in the second game of the three game set between the Indians and Angels.

This is a virtual must win game for the Halos. A loss here and there’s a very good likelihood of a wrong way sweep at the hands of the relentless Tribe. The Angels have to travel to Houston this weekend, so with the daunting slate they’re facing, they really need this game tonight.

Tomlin is no cinch to hit these days, just like everyone else in the Cleveland rotation. But in what is clearly a small sample, some of the key Angels have enjoyed quite a bit of success against the Indians righty.

The gamble here, in addition to trying ti beat this Indians express, is that Ricky Nolasco isn’t exactly Mr. Reliable for the Halos. But I’m willing to take a small shot with the home team tonight in what I feel is their most important game of the entire season to this point. I’ll risk no more than a half unit on this, but my play will be the Angels as small home dogs tonight.

Scott Rickenbach

Athletics vs. Tigers
Play: Under 10

With both these teams trending OVER this month it is no surprise that a big total is posted on this game. That is resulting in exceptional line value here because Oakland's Daniel Mengden is coming off of a 2-hit shutout in his most recent start plus he has an edge here against the Tigers as they have never faced him. As for the Tigers Anibal Sanchez, he also is off of a fantastic start as he fanned 11 in 6 innings while also allowing only 1 run. He has an added edge here against the A's as they haven't faced him this season and when Sanchez faced Oakland in 2016 and 2015 they did not hit him very well at all. The Tigers right-hander has seen his numbers skewed this season by a couple of bad starts but he has produced a number of quality outings and, given the lack of familiarity for the hitters here, I am expecting another quality start here. Look for the under to improve to a perfect 3-0 in Mengden's road starts this season. Even with yesterday's game flying over the total, the under is 12-6 in Oakland's road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined.

3G-Sports

Arizona vs. San Diego
Play: Arizona -138

The Diamondbacks are coming off of a test loss where Patrick Corbin gave up four runs on three hits. The Dbacks also stranded the bases loaded late in the game. ARZ has lost 3 straight, but I expect them to bounce back and get the win here on Wins-day night behind Robbie Ray. He is opposed by Lamet and I expect the DBacks to hit him. We like the Diamondbacks to bounce back in this one.

Jim Feist

Nationals at Braves
Pick: Under 9

This is a big park, great for pitchers, and Washington has red-hot Gio Gonzalez (14-7. 2.68 ERA). He is off a bad game at home against this Atlanta squad, but is 10-4 with a 3.04 ERA on the road. Washington is on an 11-3-4 run under the total, 21-7-3 under against a righty starter. Atlanta starter Lucas Sims throws best at home with a 3.86 ERA here. And the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.

Wunderdog

Colorado @ San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco +118

San Francisco won its second straight with a 4-3 win over the Rockies on Monday night while Colorado lost its second in a row. The Rockies now have lost their last four meetings at San Francisco and five of the last seven meetings overall. Colorado is 1-4 in Tyler Chatwood's last five road starts and the Rockies have lost 91 of their last 134 road games against left-handed starters dating to last season. Matt Moore had a rough outing against the Dodgers last Wednesday, but before that had given up more than two runs just once in six appearances. Colorado still is barely above .500 on the road and the Giants are playing the spoiler role.

Kevin Rogers

Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Brewers -110

The Pirates have been shut out in each of the last two games at home against the Brewers as Pittsburgh tries to avoid the sweep tonight. Steven Brault tossed six shutout innings the last time he faced the Brewers earlier this month, which was coincidentally the last victory Pittsburgh registered prior to this seven-game losing streak. Aaron Wilkerson makes his ML debut for Milwaukee tonight, coming off an 11-4 record and 3.16 ERA at Double-A Biloxi. I'll back the Brewers to pull off the sweep of the Pirates.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +136 over MIAMI

Based on the starters alone, this game offers up the most value on the board. That doesn’t mean that New York will emerge victorious but it’s a bet that has to be made because these two starters are not in the same class. The price suggests that Jose Urena is the superior starter but nothing could be further from the truth.

Urena’s strikeout to walk ratio isn’t even 2-1. He’s walked 56 batters while whiffing 104 in 152 innings. It’s a rare day when Urena makes it past the sixth inning and or even finishes the sixth inning. At first glance, it would appear that he has made substantial gains vs. LHB in 2017, but that's not the case. The difference is largely due to a fortunate 22% hit rate. His command vs. LHB has been poor but once again, he has benefitted greatly from a combination of hit %, strand % and hr/f luck, as evidenced by the wide disparity between ERA and xERA. Despite the vastly improved surface numbers (3.68 ERA), Urena is pretty much the same pitcher he has been. Unless he can discover a way to generate more strikeouts, refine his command, and make some strides against left-handed batters, his ERA figures to eventually move toward his 5.98 xERA. This is a grossly overpriced pitcher with little upside.

Rafael Montero is a rock-solid pitcher with filthy stuff but his surface stats say otherwise. Montero is a high-upside starter who has struggled to produce any value in 2017 because of poor fortune. Montero has posted a sub-4 xERA in August and September along with a decent skill foundation: 9.2 K’s/9, 3.9 BB’s/9, 47% grounders, 14% swing and miss rate and 67% first-pitch strike rate. Montero has 106 K’s in 106 frames. His 59 walks look troublesome but we’ll refer back to his outstanding 67% first-pitch strike rate and not put much emphasis on it. What that tells us is that he’s getting ahead in the count and then he tries to nibble or throw the perfect pitch to get the batter out. Many young pitchers fall victim to that strategy but Montero‘s control is too good to be walking that many hitters so a dramatic decrease in walks is on the horizon. Montero will enter 2018 as an intriguing speculative target that will be high on our radar, just like he is now when offering up such tremendous value.

ATLANTA +136 over Washington

Prior to 2017, Lucas Sims’ biggest problem was control. This year, in both Triple-A and the majors, he has made significant improvement in that area, backed by an elite first-pitch strike rate. However, at least in the majors, that reduction in walks has come with a reduction in strikeouts that has basically negated any change in his overall skill level—in fact, if you go by xERA, it has been a step backward but that doesn't mean he can't take the control growth and find a way to bring back the strikeouts and lower his xERA. The 23-year-old Sims has upside, as evidenced by his strong prospect rating. The scouting reports touted his 96 mph fastball and "great 12-6 curve that ranks among the best in the organization," but added that "his changeup is inconsistent," which is why there has been much speculation that he may fair better as a reliever. After seven starts, the Braves moved him to the pen for what was suppose to be the remainder of 2017 but Mike Foltynewicz has come up lame so Sims moves back into the rotation. This kid has talent and now gets another shot but we’re not counting on him for anything. We’ve been fading Gio Gonzalez for a few weeks now and we’re not letting up.

Gonzalez is 14-7 with a 2.68 ERA. He has put up some tremendous surface stats this season but they do not have the support of his underlying numbers. The usual suspects of HR%, BABIP and strand rate are often the difference between good surface stats and weak ones. That’s not unusual as guys like James Shields, Marco Estrada, Dan Haren and Bartolo Colon to name a few out-pitched their peripherals for years. You can now add Gio Gonzalez to that list. Gonzalez brings his 83.7% strand rate to this game. That’s way above league average. He also brings his .254 BABIP, which is way below the league average of .307. Gonzalez is on his way to a fourth consecutive year of velocity decline, as his fastball now averages 88.7 MPH. Gonzalez’s 171 K’s in 185 frames is not supported by his 9% swing and miss rate and as soon as everything inevitably starts to even out, the opposition will put up crooked innings against Gonzalez. He was tagged for five runs in five frames in his last start so the wheels coming off arte already in motion. The fade continues here.

JACK JONES

St Louis vs Cincinnati
Play: St. Louis -1½

The St. Louis Cardinals are still alive in the wild card race at 3.5 games behind the Rockies. They won't quit until they're eliminated, and they pulled off a gutsy 9-8 win at Cincinnati yesterday. Look for them to cruise to victory by multiple runs Wednesday night thanks to their huge edge on the mound.

Luke Weaver looks to be the next great starter in St. Louis. Weaver has gone 6-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in seven starts this season while striking out 55 batters in 42 2/3 innings. He is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in his last three starts as well.

Things have not gone nearly as smoothly for Cincinnati starter Rookie Davis in limited action. He is 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA and 2.211 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-2 with an 8.25 ERA and 2.417 WHIP in his last three starts.

St. Louis is 6-0 in Weaver's last six starts. The Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Cincinnati is 4-17 in home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last two seasons.

TEDDY DAVIS

New York at Miami
Play: Miami -1½

I think there is some good value here on the RL as I believe the Marlins will sweep the Mets here today. Urena takes the mound here and he has had a very good season for Miami with a 13-6 redcord and 3.75 ERA on the season. He enters the game in great form as well with a 2.00 ERA his last three starts.

The Mets counter with Montero who brings in a 5-7 overall record with a 4.73 ERA. His last 3 starts he has faced some easier teams in the Braves Reds and Phillies and has an ERA of 4.80 against them.

MARK FRANCO

New York at Miami
Play: Miami -150

The Miami Marlins are hoping to produce a few more memorable moments to end another disappointing season and can finish off a three-game sweep of the visiting New York Mets when the National League East rivals meet Wednesday afternoon. While Giancarlo Stanton remained at 55 homers after going 0-for-1 with four walks Tuesday, teammate J.T. Realmuto hit a walk-off blast in the 10th inning to give Miami a 5-4 victory.

Montero saw his three-game winning streak come to an end last time out when he allowed three runs and seven hits over 4 2/3 innings at Atlanta last Friday. The 26-year-old Dominican Republic native found a way to limit opponents to five runs despite giving up 12 hits and 14 walks during his win streak. Marcell Ozuna is 6-for-11 and Miguel Rojas 4-for-6 versus Montero, who is 1-0 with a 5.02 ERA in six games (two starts) against Miami this year.

Urena has permitted two runs or fewer in six of his last nine outings, including each of the last three in which he went 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA. The 26-year-old Dominican earned nine of his wins on the road, but he owns a better ERA at Marlins Park (3.17) in 15 games (12 starts) than on the road (4.08). Urena, who has struggled with the home run ball while giving up 22 in 31 games, is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in four appearances (two starts) against the Mets this year.

Mets are 2-10 in their last 12 road games. Marlins are 8-1 in Urenas last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

DAVE PRICE

Colorado at San Francisco
Pick: Colorado -125

The Colorado Rockies need a win here Wednesday as they are only one game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild card. They send the red hot Tyler Chatwood to the mound to get the job done. Chatwood is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has been at his best on the road this season, going 5-6 with a 3.48 ERA in 12 road starts. He'll be opposed by Matt Moore, who is 5-14 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 29 starts this year. Moore is 1-3 with a 9.64 ERA and 2.21 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. Colorado. Chatwood is 7-3 with a 2.72 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco.

Chris Jordan

My free winner for tonight is on the Philadelphia Phillies, catching big money against the Los Angeles Dodgers

I don't know what's going on with the Dodgers, who appeared ready to hoist the World Series trophy about six weeks ago, but now looks like it'll be lucky to escape the divisional series.

Traveling to Philly mired in a three-game losing streak, I'm taking a shot with the home underdog, while the Dodgers struggle at the plate.

Play Philly.

2* PHILLIES

Joey Juice

National League East action as the Nationals go up against the Braves in game 2 of their 3 game series from Atlanta, Georgia.

When we take a look inside the numbers we see that Washington is damn good against bad teams, they currently stand at 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. In addition when Gonzalez is rested he's flawless, 7-0 in his last seven starts with seven or more days of rest

In the other dugout we see that Atlanta does not play well in game 2's, they are 1-4 in their last five game 2's of a series. And most importantly they do not play well at home against the Nationals, 5-11 their last 16 home games in this series

The Nationals are coming off a tough home series against the Dodgers and they will look to straighten the ship today. Gonzalez will dominate and the Nationals will get an easy win.

2* WASHINGTON -1.5

Jack Brayman

I don't know what it is about San Diego, and Petco Park, but good teams go there to lose.

May 29-31, the Cubs got swept.

Sept. 1-3, the Dodgers won the lid-lifter and lost the last three.

Now, the Diamondbacks are on the brink of being swept.

There are other series I could mention, with teams that were good at the moment, or contending at that time, but are only in the wild card race now.

But San Diego has found a knack for beating playoff-bound teams. Period.

I'll take a shot with the Friars, who have won three in a row, catching money from a Diamondbacks team that has lost three straight.

4* PADRES