MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, September 18th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Dodgers @ Phillies
Kershaw is 7-1, 1.51 in his last nine starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Dodgers are 9-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-3-3
Pivetta is 0-1, 7.88 in his last three starts; over is 7-3-2 in his last 12. Phillies are 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-14-2
Dodgers won four of their last five games (under 4-0-1). LA is 13-4 in last 17 road series openers. Phillies won four of last six games, last three of which stayed under. Philly is 6-5 in last 11 home series openers.
Brewers @ Pirates
Suter is 0-1, 6.64 in his last five starts (under 6-3-2). Milwaukee is 1-4 in his road starts; — their first 5-inning record with him: 7-3-1
Brault is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts this year (under 2-0). Pirates won his only home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Brewers won seven of last nine games, last four of which went over. Milwaukee is 1-5 in last six road series openers. Pittsburgh lost its last nine games, scoring nine runs; under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Pirates are 10-13 in home series openers.
Mets @ Marlins
Harvey is 1-2, 11.81 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four. New York is 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8
Straily is 1-1, 7.36 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six outings. Miami is 7-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-11-4
Mets lost five of last seven games but won last two; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. New York is 7-13 in last 20 road series openers. Miami is 3-17 in its last 20 games, last eight of which all went over. Marlins are 10-6 in last 16 home series openers.
Diamondbacks @ Padres
Corbin is 6-1, 2.31 in his last seven starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Arizona is 5-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-13-4
Perdomo is 1-4, 4.75 in his last six starts; three of his last four starts stayed under. San Diego is 8-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-11-4
Arizona is 5-5 in its last ten games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Diamondbacks are 15-9 in road series openers. San Diego lost five of its last six games (under 4-2). Padres are 3-8 in last 11 home series openers.
American League
Red Sox @ Orioles
Fister is 3-1, 1.50 in his last four starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Boston is 3-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-6
Bundy is 4-1, 2.93 in his last seven starts; over is 11-4 in his last 15 starts. Orioles are 11-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-2
Red Sox are 8-3 in last 11 games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Boston is 9-6 in last 15 road series openers. Baltimore lost nine of last 11 games; over is 3-1 in their last four. Orioles are 4-9 in last 13 home series openers.
Minnesota @ New York
Santana is 3-0, 4.60 in his last five starts; Twins scored 31 runs in those five games. Under is 6-4-2 in his last 12 starts. Twins are 9-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-7-6
Garcia is 0-2, 5.90 in six starts for New York (under 5-1). NY is 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4-1
Twins won four of last six games; under is 4-1 in their last five. Minnesota is 14-9 in road series openers. New York won four of its last five games; over is 3-1 in their last four. NY is 15-8 in home series openers.
A’s @ Tigers
Cotton is 3-0, 6.07 in his last five starts, last four of which went over. A’s scored 33 runs in his last four starts. Oakland is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-1
Farmer is 1-2, 8.25 in his last three starts (under 4-3-1). Detroit is 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5
A’s are 8-3 in their last 11 games; under is 3-1 in their last four. Oakland is 2-8 in last ten road series openers. Detroit is 2-7 in its last nine games; over is 7-1 in their last eight home games. Tigers are 1-9 in last the home series openers.
Record with this pitcher starting
LA-Phil: Kershaw 21-3; Pivetta 8-15
Mil-Pitt: Suter 6-5; Brault 2-0
NY-Mia: Harvey 6-10; Straily 14-16
Az-SD: Corbin 16-14; Perdomo 11-15
American League
Bos-Balt: Fister 6-5; Bundy 17-10
Min-NY: Santana 17-12; Garcia 3-3
A’s-Det: Cotton 10-13; Farmer 4-4
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
LA-Phil: Kershaw 5-24; Pivetta 10-23
Mil-Pitt: Suter 1-11; Brault 1-2
NY-Mia: Harvey 9-16 (4 of last 4); Straily 7-30
Az-SD: Corbin 12-30; Perdomo 9-26
American League
Bos-Balt: Fister 6-11; Bundy 4-27
Min-NY: Santana 6-29; Garcia 4-6
A’s-Det: Cotton 10-23; Farmer 3-8
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 83-56 AL, favorites -$36
AL @ NL– 73-69 NL, favorites +$116
Total: 152-129 AL, favorites +$80
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 70-67-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-62-7
Total: Over 144-129-11
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Milwaukee (-115) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8.5
The Brewers and Pirates square off at PNC Park today and the two teams are going in very different directions. Milwaukee sits 2.5 games back of the Rockies in the Wild Card hunt and four back of the Cubs for the NL Central. Pittsburgh is now 14 games until .500 since August 11 and is fading fast, with Cincinnati now threatening to pass the Buccos for last place in the division.
As a result, there’s only one way to go in this game. That’s Milwaukee. Pittsburgh seems to have very little interest in coming to the ballpark. The Pirates have dropped 10 of 11 and seven of those losses are by more than one run. They’re not just losing, they’re getting beaten soundly. Pittsburgh has scored 3.06 runs per game in the month of September. There isn’t a whole lot of fun in playing spoiler for teams that have recently been to the playoffs and that appears to be the case for Pittsburgh at this point in time.
Brent Suter is back on the bump for the Brewers. He’s got a 3.66/3.94/4.29 pitcher slash in his 66.1 innings of work with 11 starts and eight relief outings. He is just working his way back from a late-season injury, so he’ll be on a pretty strict pitch count. He only worked three innings last time out and three innings on September 3 in his first start back. That is a concern, but the Brewers have a lot of reinforcements with expanded rosters. Josh Hader hasn’t pitched since the 15th and he will likely be the first guy out of the pen. He’s struck out 55 in 39 innings this season, so you can likely imagine this as Suter for three or four innings and Hader for one or two to bridge the gap to the bullpen.
Jameson Taillon is one Pirate that won’t quit. Taillon has a 4.78 ERA with a 3.48 FIP and a 3.90 xFIP. Taillon has had some really awful starts in the second half that have blown up his ERA. He also has a .363 BABIP against and a 69.6 percent LOB%, so he’s looking at some positive regression in those two metrics. He’s the one thing that worries me a bit about the Milwaukee side, but he probably won’t get much in the form of offensive assistance.
With that in mind, I’d look at the Brewers and the under in the Steel City tonight.
Minnesota at New York (-165); Total: 9
I’m not sure why this line is as high as it is, but I’d be looking to grab the Twins at the heavy underdog price. Ervin Santana shows the same signs of regression that we’ve seen all season with his 3.35 ERA, 4.52 FIP, and 4.77 xFIP. He hasn’t come close to regressing that far, so I’m just going to assume that it doesn’t happen over these last few outings. Having a great defensive team doesn’t hurt. Jaime Garcia has a 4.60 ERA with a 5.47 FIP and a 4.72 xFIP in his 29.1 innings of work with the Yankees. His walk rate is much higher in the AL and his HR/FB% is much higher pitching in the AL. The Twins have a pretty decent lineup.
This is a good value grab I think. The Yankees clearly have the bullpen advantage, but the Twins are a real scrappy bunch that plays good defense and has a lot to fight for.
Boston at Baltimore (-110); Total: 9.5
Doug Fister and Dylan Bundy are the listed starters for this AL East matchup in Baltimore. Baltimore has fallen well off the pace in the Wild Card standings, so they’re just playing out the string at this point. The Red Sox are up three on the Yankees for the division with 13 to play. Amazingly, there are no head-to-head matchups left.
Fister has given the Red Sox some average innings. He has a 4.40 ERA with a 4.07 FIP and a 4.32 xFIP in his 12 starts and three relief outings. He does have a much higher strikeout rate than usual, which seems odd for him, but we’ll just chalk that up to small sample size variance. Fister is a ground ball pitcher for the most part, so that should play well against Baltimore’s aggressive lineup.
Bundy has a 4.03 ERA with a 4.42 FIP and a 4.74 xFIP on the season. Bundy has become an extreme fly ball guy, which has been a good strategy against the Red Sox, who are one of this season’s few laggards in terms of HR/FB%. Bundy had a rough first half, but he’s gotten much stronger in the second half. He has 66 strikeouts in 57.1 innings of work and has held the opposition to a .208/.266/.358 slash line. His second-half K% is up to 28.3 percent. That is a great silver lining to the season for the Orioles, who need any bright light they can get.
Even though the Orioles aren’t playing for anything, Bundy has really found a working formula. I’d slightly lean to the Baltimore side, but I prefer the under here. I don’t believe in the sustainability of Fister’s K%, but he’s allowing fewer balls in play than normal and there seems to be some credence to it, at least for now. Bundy is in a nice groove and I see no reason for that to stop. None of his peripherals are that out of whack.
Oakland (-110) at Detroit; Total: 10
Jharel Cotton and Buck Farmer are the slated starters for Monday’s game between the A’s and Tigers. The Tigers nearly had their one highlight for the season on Sunday when Matt Boyd took a no-hitter into the ninth, but he lost it. The Tigers won the game 12-0, but it was all about that no-hitter. These are two teams legitimately playing out the string. I’m not sure how invested either side will be in this game or this series. The A’s are far from home and are just 24-50 in that split. The Tigers are just 9-21 over their last 30 games because apathy has set in.
I wish I had angles to give you and something more concrete, but I don’t. The Tigers are 32-49 against teams with losing records, so it doesn’t seem like they get up for games like this. Oakland is just 35-46, so maybe the same applies to them.
If there’s a getaway day game or something, maybe we’ll have a better feel. Today, two pitchers that need to end on a high note are pitching. The A’s need Cotton next season and Farmer is basically assured a spot for the Tigers, but who knows how long his leash will be.
I’ll pass on this one and probably throughout the series.
Twins, Yankees battle at Yankee Stadium
By: StatFox.com
In what just might be a preview of the AL Wild Card Game, the Yankees host the Twins on Monday.
If the season were to end today, the Twins would be facing the Yankees in the American League Wild Card Game. New York would play the role of host in that game, so this is going to be a pretty good look at what that one might look like. And while it won’t be a do-or-die contest for either team, both teams could really use a victory in this one. The Twins are still fighting to hold off the Angels for the second wild card spot and the Yankees are still doing everything they can to win the AL East. They’re a few games behind the Red Sox currently, but the lead is far from insurmountable right now. The starters in this big Monday night matchup are going to be RHP Ervin Santana (15-7, 3.35 ERA, 158 K) for Minnesota and LHP Jaime Garcia (5-9, 4.35 ERA, 116 K) for New York. Garcia spent about a week with the Twins this season, so it should be fun for him to pitch against some of these guys. Santana has, however, been incredible this season, so it won’t be easy for the lefty to outduel him.
The Twins are playing some solid baseball right now, as they have won six of their past 10 games and are currently slated to be playing in the postseason. A lot can change in the next few weeks, though. Minnesota needs to keep winning games and that all starts with this one on Monday. Ervin Santana will be out there for them here and the righty is coming off of a very good performance against the Padres. He faced San Diego on Sep. 13 and allowed no earned runs in six innings of work. Santana also struck out seven in that game, so he is clearly feeling pretty good with his stuff right now. He has not, however, faced the Yankees this season, and this offense can be tough to pitch to sometimes. He will not want to hang many pitches high or New York’s sluggers will go yard. On offense, OF Byron Buxton is a guy to keep an eye on in this game. Buxton was 3-for-4 with a homer and two RBI against the Blue Jays on Sunday, so he should be feeling pretty confident here. Buxton is also one of the league’s best fielders, so he will almost certainly have an impact in one way or another.
The Yankees are coming off of a loss, but this team is still rolling right now. New York has been on fire recently, but the problem is that Boston has been as well. The Red Sox just have not been losing, which is making it increasingly more likely that the Yankees will only be playing in the AL Wild Card Game at this point. Still, the Bronx Bombers need to stay the course. They’ll want to be as hot as possible when the playoffs eventually do start, so a big performance from Garcia would be nice for this team. Garcia has pitched pretty well in his last few trips to the mound, as he has allowed only two earned runs over his past 9.2 innings of work. If he can give the Yankees five or six innings of one or two-run ball then they’ll be ecstatic. On offense, New York will count on guys like OF Aaron Judge and C Gary Sanchez to produce at the plate. Both guys have tremendous power and could spark their team with only one swing of the bat on Monday.
MLB Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
New York Mets at Miami Marlins (-155, 8.5)
We pulled this strategy of two picks from the same game last night and it went pretty well, so we're going to do it again today with a limited betting board. The awful side of the Dodgers' bullpen gave up a few garbage runs late to cost us the double-win on Sunday Night Baseball, but we'll take our Push on the total and move on.
The Miami Marlins return home for the first time since Hurricane Irma to open a three-game series against the New York Mets on Monday. Miami followed a seven-game road trip by playing a three-game "home" series in Milwaukee this past weekend.
Matt Harvey, Matt Harvey, Matt Harvey. What more can we say about the Mets' starter that hasn't already been said? In his three starts since returning from the disabled list, Harvey owns an ERA of 12.19 and massive WHIP of 2.419. The most alarming stat is that he has only recorded six strikeouts in those three starts.
Do you know what happens when you play the Marlins in Miami and you bring mediocre stuff to the mound? Giancarlo Stanton clobbers multiple balls halfway to the moon, that's what. Stanton was given a day off yesterday (fatigue) and should be rested and ready for that weak fastball and hanging curveball from "The Dark Knight".
The Marlins will counter with Dan Straily and he hasn't been particularly good recently, either. In his last start, at Philadelphia, he allowed eight earned runs over six innings of work in an eventual 8-1 loss to the Phillies. Straily, however, is decent at home at 4-3 with an ERA of 3.27 and the Fish have beaten the Mets in both of his starts against them in 2017 (1.74 ERA).
This total seems way too low with Harvey on the mound and, well, he has to show us something positive before we stop the fade train.
Pick 1: Marlins -155
Pick 2: Over 8.5
Yesterday's Picks: 1-0-1
Season To Date: 145-137-15
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (17-3, 2.12 ERA, $1360)
After a brutal stretch, the Los Angeles Dodgers seem to have their mojo back, winners of four of five and their magic number for clinching a fifth consecutive National League West title sits at four. The Dodgers begin a four-game series with the Phillies and kick it off in style with ace Clayton Kershaw heading to the mound.
It was Kershaw that ended the Dodgers’ brutal 11-game losing streak in his last start. In ‘The Claw's’ three starts since returning from the DL he has a 2-1 record, 2.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and struck out 20 batters.
Kershaw and the Dodgers are a chalky -310 tonight in Philadelphia.
Slumping: Matt Harvey, New York Mets (5-5, 6.14 ERA, $-497)
Matt Harvey made his return to the Mets’ injury-ravaged rotation at the beginning of the month and it has been a dumpster fire.
In his three September starts he is 1-2 with a gross ERA of 12.19 ERA and a WHIP of 2.419. Hopefully, for Mets fans, he can take advantage of the last few weeks of this dreadful season and get some positive innings under his belt before the off-season.
Harvey and the Mets are +144 road dogs tonight in Miami.
Monday's Top Trends
* Pirates are 1-10 in their last 11 overall. -108 vs. Brewers.
* Dodgers are 45-9 in Clayton Kershaw’s last 54 starts. -310 @ Philadelphia.
* Over is 9-1 in Tigers last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. OAK/DET Total: 10.
* Marlins are 4-17 in their last 21 overall. -156 vs. Mets.
* Over is 22-3-1 in Patrick Corbin’s last 26 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. ARI/SD Total 8.5.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There should be no precipitation impacting any start times or action on the field today across Major League Baseball.
The most notable wind today will be at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia where the forecast is calling for 9-10 mile per hour winds at first pitch blowing in from right-center field. The Dodgers are in town to play the Phillies and the total for this contest is currently at 7.5.