Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me
Read and discuss Major League Baseball News and MLB Betting, Odds, Trends, Picks and Predictions
  • Page:
  • 1
  • 2

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449682

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Free Picks for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449683

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Dave Cokin

Arizona at New York
Play: Arizona -155

The Mets are actually the play-on side in the series sweep revenge angle, but I’ll buck that trend here. Zack Godley is throwing for Arizona, and while he got knocked around in his most recent start, I don’t see that off game as cause for alarm. He was still generating loads of K’s, and I didn’t see any red flags to suggest Godley is suddenly going to hit the skids.

Chris Flexen will pitch tonight for the Mets. The young righty is flashing some promise, but I don’t think he’s ready to win consistently at this level just yet. Too many walks and early indicators are that he’s going to be vulnerable to long balls with some fly ball tendencies. I think it’s safe to suggest that Flexen is still a year away and is only with the big club now due to all the injuries in the rotation.

There’s certainly no bargain to be had here, and that’s going to pretty much be the case from here on with any game that features a contender vs. a run of the mill opponent. Opinion here is that even at the fairly steep tag, the Diamondbacks are the right side.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449684

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Cappers Club

Washington vs. Houston
Play: Washington +143

The Washington Nationals and the Houston Astros continue their series on Wednesday night, and just based on the price the Nationals have some value.

On the mound for the Astros is Mike Fiers who comes into this game struggling. The long ball has always been his issue and in each of the last four games he has given up two home runs.

He hasn't won a game in his last five starts and four of those games he was credited with the loss. He seems to be back to his old form. and that isn't a good thing when you are facing a lineup like the Nationals.

On the mound for the Nationals is Edwin Jackson who has been good this year an especially as of late. In his last two starts he has gone 13 innings and given up a total of two runs.

Some trends to note. Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Astros are 0-5 in Fiers' last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
Last Edit: 1 month 2 days ago by Blade.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449685

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Scott Spreitzer

Arizona at New York
Play: Arizona -154

The D-backs are 40-26 and average 5.27 rpg in night games against righthanders. That spells trouble for Mets' righty Chris Flexen. He's made five starts since late July and none have gone too well. Flexen has allowed 16 earned runs, 28 hits, and 16 walks in just 22 innings of work. Odd line for Zack Godley last time out pitching at Target Field as he gave up 4 earned runs and 9 hits in just 5 1/3 IP, but also punched-out 10 batters. Godley has been solid on the road all season and spectacular at night, and he slammed the door on the Mets in all three appearances against them in his career, including his lone start against them in 2017. I expect another successful outing against a Mets' squad averaging just 4.17 rpg at home and down over 15 units at Citi Field, where they have won just 27 of 65 games this season.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449686

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
John Martin

Brewers vs. Giants
Play:Brewers +113

I'm going with the Brewers in an early game Wednesday in San Francisco. This is a Brewers team with a lot to play for right now as they are right in the middle of the NL Central and wild card races. The Brewers have now gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall to handle the pressure very well right now. Matt Garza hasn't been great, but he has been better than Matt Moore. If you bet Moore in all of his starts this season, you would be 7-18 while losing 12.1 units. Moore is 4-12 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his 25 starts this year. The Brewers are 10-1 in Garza's last 11 starts during game 3 of a series. The Giants are 0-8 in Moore's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449687

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Jack Jones

Mariners vs. Braves
Play: Mariners -115

The Seattle Mariners are right there in the wild card race at two games behind the Minnesota Twins. After losing 4-0 to the Braves yesterday, they should come back highly motivated for a victory here Wednesday night.

Erasmo Ramirez is coming off two of best starts of the season. He gave up just one earned run and eight base runners in 12 innings for a 0.75 ERA in his last two starts against the Rays and Angels. Now he's up against a Braves team that is just 9-20 in their last 21 games overall.

R.A. Dickey has just been average this season for the Braves, going 8-8 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 24 starts this year. Ramirez pitched 7 shutout innings in his last start against the Braves, while Dickey allowed 6 earned runs in 3 innings of a 5-14 loss in his last start against the Mariners.

The Mariners are 5-1 in their last six meetings with the Braves. Seattle is 12-3 in its last 15 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. Seattle is 10-3 in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449688

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Jesse Schule

Brewers vs. Giants
Play: Under 9

The Brewers trail the Cubs by just 2.5 games in the NL Central, and they came into this series at San Francisco as winners of seven of eight. I think the total for Game 3 looks a little high, and I expect a pitcher's duel.

Garza (6-7, 4.81 ERA) was lit up in a loss at Colorado his last time out. This looks like a far better spot for the veteran, he's been far better in day games than he has been under the lights. He allowed one run on eight hits, striking out five in four innings in a no decision in his last start in San Francisco.

The Giants hand the ball to southpaw Matt Moore, who has had a terrible season. He allowed a pair of runs on two hits and four walks over seven innings in a home win over Philly his last time out, but had lost four straight starts prior to that. Like Garza, he has been far better in afternoon games.

Only the lowly Phillies have scored fewer runs against rigth-handed pitchers than the Giants in 2017.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449689

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Dave Price

Athletics vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -1½

The Baltimore Orioles have a significant advantage on the mound and at the plate over the Oakland A's today. Dylan Bundy is 6-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 12 home starts this year. He is hot of late at 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Sean Manaea has gone in the opposite direction, going 0-2 with a 13.04 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in his last 3 starts. One of those was against the Orioles on August 12th as he was knocked out after just 1/3 of an inning, giving up 6 runs in a 5-12 home loss to Baltimore. The A's are 1-10 in Manaea's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles are 5-0 in Bundy's last 5 starts. They should have no problem winning by 2 runs or more at this nice underdog price.
Last Edit: 1 month 2 days ago by Blade.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449690

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Zack Cimini

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay +109

The Rays have now won two games in a row after losing eight of nine. Wednesday they’ll face a bigger test as they face Blue Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman. Thus far in three starts against the Rays this season Stroman has allowed a total of five runs. Yet, look for the Rays to continue on to stay back on track with another win Wednesday.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449691

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Marc Lawrence

Toronto at Tampa Bay
Pick: Toronto

Edges - Blue Jays: Stroman 2.03 ERA last ten overall team starts; and 15-7 as a favorites this season… Rays: Pruitt 0-3 home team starts, and 2-1 away team starts, this season… With the favorite 18-7 in Stroman’s starts this campaign, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449692

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Jim Feist

Mariners at Braves
Pick: Under

This is a good park to pitch in and Seattle loses the DH for this series. Seattle's Erasmo Ramirez (4.52 ERA) has excellent control, 19 walks in 89+ innings with fewer hits than innings pitched allowed. He's allowed 1 run in each of his last two starts. Atlanta is 19-4-3 under the total at home against a right-handed starter. Starter R.A. Dickey (3.98 ERA) has a 3.50 ERA at home and the team is 23-9-3 under the total in the Braves last 35 home games.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449719

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Zack Cimini

Mariners vs. Braves
Play: Mariners -115

Tuesday the Braves pitching staff surrendered just five hits to defeat the Mariners 4-0. The outing presented the obvious that road fatigue could be setting in for the Mariners. Wednesday marks their sixth straight road game as they embark on a total of twelve. Look for veteran Erasamo Ramirez and the Mariners bats to showcase that the oddmakers are correct tabbing them as slight favorites.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449722

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. ANGELS -1½ +130 over Texas

Sometimes the line dictates the play and that is certainly the case here so allow us to set it up for you. The Rangers have won six of their last nine games while Andrew Cashner has a 3.31 ERA after 20 starts. What makes this line so curious is that Andrew Heaney has made just one start this year and it occurred last week in Baltimore in which he lasted a mere 5.1 frames after allowing four jacks (!), not to mention a .304 BAA. It’s is therefore odd or unreasonable that the Halos are favored in the -150 to -160 range when this market pays so much attention to ERA’s.

A closer look however, reveals that Texas swept Detroit, split four games with the South Side and defeated the Angels in the opener of this series to comprise of their six wins. They lost 10-1 last night. Furthermore, Andrew Heaney will not be pitching in Baltimore here. Take away those four jacks in that small park against a home-run hitting team and his pitching line would look entirely different. In making his first start in over one full year, Heaney had a 15% swing and miss rate and didn’t walk a single batter. We have to trust that he’s feeling rather jubilant after such a fine performance, despite the results. With that one start under his belt with no ill effects, Heaney is in line to do very well here. The line says so.

As far as Andrew Cashner goes, well, we’ve been suggesting that you ignore his surface stats because they are a mirage and our position on that has not changed one bit. In his last start, Cahsner walked four and struck out two but pitched to a 3.18 ERA. Mirage, my friends. In 120 innings overall, Cashner has a despicable BB/K split of 48/61. He also has a 5.81 xERA but that xERA is 6.83 over his last four starts. Andrew Cashner’s ERA over his last four starts is 2.10. That’s four runs lower than his xERA and quite frankly, it’s absurd. It’s time for Cashner’s charmed existence to come to an end and this line strongly suggests that’s precisely what will take place here.

Washington +149 over HOUSTON

Edwin Jackson came into this season as a well-travelled journeyman/innings-eater for non-contending rotations that had been savaged by injuries and needed 2nd half help. The Nationals were not a non-contender but they were in desperate need for starting rotation help and went off the grid to find Jackson. Edwin Jackson may end up being the steal of the year. In six starts, he’s been outstanding with a 3.43/4.01 ERA/xERA split. Jackson is just 33-years-old and he’s throwing 94 MPH with fade. His swing and miss rate of 12% supports the 26 K’s he’s posted over his last 30 innings against just eight walks. His line-drive rate is also elite at just 14%. Edwin Jackson is perceived as this replacement level starter that his way past his prime but there is no denying that dude has found something. His underlying skills say it’s legit too.

Mike Fiers comes in with a 4.32 ERA to go along with 131 K’s in 133 innings but his underlying numbers say he’s more fluke than talent. His strand rate of 78% is well-above league average. That’s one luck area where regression is imminent. Fiers hasn't been able to maintain 2016's control gains, as his underlying first-pitch strike rate and Ball% remain stuck below league average. Fiers has walked 53 batters. Though Fiers has made positive changes this season—going to the changeup more often—his June/July/August run is mostly a fluke. His 5.46 xERA over the past three months isn't convinced that he’s better than before and neither are we. Houston may indeed win here but if we’re sticking to playing value, Washington must be played here because its chances of winning may be better.

Minnesota -1½ +112 over CHICAGO

Facing an always shaky Kyle Gibson last night, the South Side had numerous chances in the first three innings to put up some crooked numbers but failed miserably. With seven base-runners in the first three innings, which including a bases loaded no out opportunity in the third, the White Sox scored one run and it came via the wild pitch. Opportunity would not strike again for the remainder of the game while the Twins managed to score four times on a very good looking rookie. Now the Twins take a huge step down in class from anything they’ve seen over the past three weeks when they face James Shields.

Shields’ is actually throwing better these days with a BB/K split of 10/30 over his last 27 innings but he’s still walking too many and giving up too many hard hit balls. His batted ball profile in his last start was 31% grounders, 46% line-drives and 23% fly-outs. He still has a weak overall BB/K split of 35/74 over 84 frames. Shields’ overall WHIP is also weak at 1.57 and it was weak during that aforementioned 27 innings better stretch too at 1.47. It’s not every pitcher who can rack up a 6-19 record with an ERA approaching 6.00 and still have a job the next year. Such is the case with James Shields who despite his 2016 struggles, opened this year with a spot in the rotation. He’s still in said rotation with an xERA of 5.44 but when you get behind Big Game James" it’s a dangerous game of chicken.

Ervin Santana seemingly has faded since the All-Star Break (4.35 ERA) but nothing could be further from the truth. He has an excellent 13% swing and miss rate and an elite 72% first-pitch strike rate so far in the second half. Santana has a BB/K split of 7/34 over his last 33 frames covering five starts and he’ll now face a young, inexperienced and impatient group of hitters in the White Sox lineup. Not only is Santana in great from but his expertise in sequencing should bode well here in fooling a group that is so raw.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449723

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
SPORTS WAGERS

The Northern Trust

The top 125 in the Fed Ex Cup standings are confirmed and this week’s field is locked in place. The nature of how the rankings system works means we’ve got the most consistent players on Tour taking their place in NYC; for what it’s worth, the FedEx Cup standings, as of right now, serve up a top-10 that reads:

Hideki Matsuyama (1), Justin Thomas (2), Jordan Spieth (3), Dustin Johnson (4), Rickie Fowler (5), Jon Rahm (6), Brooks Koepka (7), Daniel Berger (8 ), Kevin Kisner (9), Brian Harman (10).

Don’t forget, the harsh nature of the playoffs means that only 100 players will tee up at Deutsche Bank Championship next week, which puts the likes of Emiliano Grillo, Branden Grace, Jimmy Walker, Luke Donald, and Bubba Watson in the spotlight but there are plenty of points to play for this week.

Glen Oaks will be a new course for the vast majority in this field, and information regarding its layout is scarce. The PGA TOUR website is running a piece at the moment which features some nice quotes – most notably from Scott Brown, who played the stretch 12 months ago, as well as the thoughts from course superintendent Craig Currier. To offer a sort of potted view of Glen Oaks, this is a fairly typical Par 70 at 7,300 yards, and it has been renovated with the help of Joel Weiman to produce a classic test of ball-striking. Trees have been removed – partly by design, partly by hurricanes Irene and Hermine, and fairways widened a tad.

The greens are described as pretty fast and are Bentgrass (Poa) in nature, and you don’t have to look too far for the first correlating course. Both Currier and Weiman worked together on a revamp of Bethpage Black, a course that hosted the 2009 US Open and two editions of the Barclays Championship. When researching the track, another name crops up on a number of occasions: Augusta National. Mark Brown, who won the 101st Met Open, which was hosted by Glen Oaks, has described it as the ‘Augusta of the North,’ and namesake Scott Brown agreed: “It’s a fabulous golf course, similar to Augusta National in that you have to play shots to certain quadrants of the greens.” In conversation with the New York Post Currier continued with the theme. “The bunker styling is similar to Augusta,” he said. “They’re really deep, flashed sand. We have a lot of great vistas where you can see across three, four, five holes and the bunkers are popping out at you.” In a week in which we are grasping wildly for course-based information, we’ll take this gladly.

The forecast is for sunshine and cloudy weather all week, with temperatures ranging from 77 degrees (Sunday) to 82 degrees (Thursday). Wind speeds will max out at about 10 mph, and so really the only weather-related item of note is the humidity. It’s set to be a sultry week in NYC, and that humidity should enable the golf ball to travel further than normal. That set-up could help Glen Oaks to provide a stern test this week. Scott Brown suggested his associates will be tested. Greens will surely be as fast as they can be, while the shaved run-off areas around the dancefloors could really make any errant balls fly far from the putting surface.

In the 2016 season, the Northern Trust Open was played in February at Riviera CC in the Pacific Palisades. Consequently, it was not part of the FedEx Cup, and so it is of very little relevance this week. The relevant tournament in last year’s campaign was the Barclays Championship, which was the first event of the FedEx Cup in 2016 and played on the Black course at Bethpage State Park (the same one mentioned earlier in this preview).

There, Patrick Reed bagged the full 2,000 FedEx Cup points and the trophy, seeing off the challenge of Emiliano Grillo and Sean O’Hair by a solitary stroke. Scott, Jason Day, and Gary Woodland rounded out the top five but they could not catch Reed, whose rounds of 66-68-71-70 suggest he was clinging on by the close of play on Sunday. With so little course information to work with – albeit form at Bethpage Black and Augusta duly noted – we must seek out new ways to formulate our picks this week.

We can use current form as a guide. The Wyndham Championship was a birdie-fest played out by a mostly weak field, so that’s of minimal relevance, but the PGA Championship (quality field) and WGC Bridgestone Invitational (tough course) are certainly worth a look.

Is motivation a factor? The FedEx Cup points get reset after the BMW Championship in three weeks’ time, so those already near the top of the standings have little to play for here. That didn’t stop Patrick Reed, who was seventh at the point he won the Barclays 12 months ago, although O’Hair (108th), Kokrak (65th), Woodland (42nd), and Grillo (32nd) clearly made great strikes with their top-10s at Bethpage.

We may be clutching at straws here, but three players finished inside the top-10 at both the Northern Trust Open and the Barclays in 2016 – despite the two events taking place six months apart. Decide for yourself whether there’s a valid connection between the two courses (Riviera and Bethpage) that drove Adam Scott, Jason Kokrak, and Ryan Moore to perform admirably in both. We’ll consider everything and go after some long shots but also note that we have won five of six head-to-head matchups since switching to 2 units on our three top H2H’s.

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.

Daniel Berger 66-1

Of all the things that have shocked us this season, Dan Berger missing the cut at the PGA Championship was right up there. Since winning the St Jude Classic in June, Berger had made four out of five cuts (just missing that of the US Open), recorded three top-20s and two top-5s. So there was absolutely no reason for him to flop at Quail Hollow. The 24-year-old had last week off, a smart move, and will hopefully head to New York revitalized and confident after some range hitting in the past few weeks. He has a top-10 to his name at Augusta (2016), and that might just be an omen for a good week at Glen Oaks. Already in his third playoffs, he's logged five top 15s in eight events during the series. Berger is under the radar to be sure because of his last two missed cuts at the past two majors (U.S. Open and PGA Championship), he sets up as a threat to take it all the way to the house (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).

Brian Harman 100-1

Harman bagged a long overdue second PGA TOUR title earlier this season at the Wells Fargo Championship and that was the icing on what has been a particularly consistent campaign. Some 50% of his 26 starts have been converted to top-25s, and since lifting the trophy at Eagle Point he’s delivered top-10s at Dean & Deluca and the John Deere Classic, as well as finishing second behind Brooks Koepka at the US Open. His last start was a T13 at the PGA Championship so there’s plenty to like about Brian Harman this week. Harman just keeps delivering. He’s a top-10 machine with seven this season but he’s priced like he’s Phil Mickelson. With Harman on your side, you almost always get a good run for your money. He’s ranked 5th ON TOUR in SG: Putting and 19th ON TOUR in SG: Around the Green. Overlay (Risking 0.2 units to win 20 units).

Kyle Stanley 200-1

We bet Kyle Stanley last week and he didn’t even make the cut at a venue that was being slayed by so many. That has most gamers steering clear of Stanley and we can understand why. He’s been missing in action for weeks with three missed cuts with a T55 and a T41 over his last five events played. That doesn’t mean he should be 200-1. In late June, Stanley won the Quicken Loans. He finished T4 earlier in the year at the Players Championship. It's not a stretch to state that he's the last winner on a course unfamiliar to just about everyone in the field, as TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm was making its debut as a PGA TOUR host site. That's where the 29-year-old prevailed for the Quicken Loans National. It's also not a stretch to attach to the theory that he's bided his time since. Currently second on TOUR in total driving, first in greens in regulation and third in proximity to the hole, he presents strongly once again at Glen Oaks. With key stats like that, Stanley holds too much value at this price and if he comes alive, we don’t want to miss out (Risking 0.2 units to win 40 units).

Xander Schauffele 150-1

It’s only his first full season on the PGA TOUR so we must refrain from judgement too quickly, but Schauffele is turning into a threat almost every week and is too good to ignore at this price. From his T24 at the Wells Fargo, the 23-year-old has followed up with T5 at the US Open, T14 at the Travelers, T13 at the WGC Bridgestone and, of course, his maiden tour title at the Greenbrier Classic. This young man’s game has gone from strength to strength in the past few months with so many good outings that has been his catalyst to his ascent to golfing manhood. Schauffele has delivered some outstanding tee-to-green stats this season with some of his key stats including being ranked 26th ON TOUR in SG Putting, 27th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation – 27th ON TOUR in SG: Off the Tee. It doesn't hurt that he's long off the tee and rates extremely high in Par 4 efficiency. This is another big overlay (Risking 0.2 units to win 30 units).

Jamie Lovemark 125-1

When you look at the list of winners on the PGA TOUR this season, a whole bunch of young players have come of age and grabbed a ‘W’. It’s high time Lovemark did likewise. He ranks 31st for SG: tee to Green and 17th for SG: Around-the-Green – the profile of a class act – and yet he still hasn’t won an event. It will come as no surprise to note that he’s not the best in the world with the putter but we are of the school of thought that putting can click in at any time – the switch to Poa may assist Lovemark, whereas confidence from tee to green takes a whole lot longer to return. There’s plenty of upside to someone who has made 20/25 cuts this form and transferred nine of those to top-25s and four to top-10s (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

Head-to-head Matchups for The Northern Trust

We're sticking with three H2H matchups, all for 2 units because it's working with five out of six winning wagers over the past two weeks.

Head-to-head matchups

G. Woodland -116 over K. Kisner

Gary Woodland is gaining momentum after what has been mostly a trying season. He also has a Presidents Cup spot to play for, too. En route to a T22 at the PGA Championship, he led the field in total driving and ranked T10 in greens hit. Woodland is no stranger to opening the Playoffs strong with four top 15s in five appearances at the migrant opener. Meanwhile, Kevin Kisner finished a disappointing T42 at Sedgefield and on Bermuda greens no less. Back on Poa this week and seeking to end a slump of six straight starts in the Playoffs without a top 25, Kisner’s propensity for fading this time of year is an odd trend worth attacking and that’s precisely what we’re doing. Incidentally, getting behind Woodland at 80-1 is worth a bet too if you’re so inclined. We would have too but we have to draw the line somewhere and he would’ve been one of our next in line of underpriced golfers to win it all (Risking 2.32 units to win 2).

R. Fowler +105 over R. McIlroy

All Rickie Fowler does is continuously play consistently great golf and it’s only a matter of time before he wins a major. That will have to wait until next year but we’re more than happy to get him at a price against the suddenly inconsistent McIlroy. McIlroy almost decided to sit out the playoffs due to injury. He was never really in the mix at Quail Hollow and his health/schedule at the very least has to be a distraction. Even if McIlroy comes up with one of his strong outings, it doesn’t mean he’s going to beat Rickie (Risking 2 units to win 2.1).

R. Moore -101 over J. Dufner

Jason Dufner is 40-years-old. At difficult courses, as this one is projected to be, Dufner has not fared well this season with a +5 at the Masters, a missed cut at the U.S. Open, a +6 at WGC-Bridgestone (T50) and a +7 (T58) at the PGA Championship. Dufner isn’t getting any younger and he’s not getting any thinner either. Meanwhile, Ryan Moore, a six-time PGA TOUR winner is somewhere near his best form at the moment and if he could only get the putter working his last three starts of 24-13-28 would look considerably better. He missed five putts within five feet at the Wyndham Championship – just imagine how much better off he would have gained if he’d sunk those and yet he has ranked fourth and seventh for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green at the Wyndham and PGA Championship respectively, which suggests he is striking the ball incredibly well. Six years Dufner’s junior, Moore should not be the underdog in this H2H matchup and so we’ll play it accordingly (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Last Edit: 1 month 2 days ago by Blade.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449725

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
ASA

Red Sox vs. Indians
Play: Red Sox -1.5

This is a lot of line value considering the Red Sox are 15-4 their last 19 games and 3 of the 4 losses came by just a single run. That equates to Boston (at +1.5 runs) being 18-1 in their last 19 games! They’ll have Drew Pomeranz on the mound and the southpaw hasn’t lost in over two months! Pomeranz is 6-0 with a 2.30 ERA and has piled up 63 strikeouts in 70 and 1 / 3 innings since June 11th. The Indians Corey Kluber certainly has great numbers but he left his last start with a sprained ankle! Also, the Indians are now just 3-3 in their last 6 games and one of those wins came by just a single run.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449726

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Chris Jordan

The Tampa Bay Rays owe me big time after last night's collapse over the final two innings. And I'm still in revenge-mode, as it'll be the name of the game once again since the Toronto Blue Jays just took a series between the American League East rivals.

Nothing has changed from last night's thought process, as the Rays need to wake up and do something about this 15-22 slide since the All-Star break if they want to become relevant in the A.L. wild-card race.

Tampa Bay is just four games out of the second American League wild-card position, and it is catching the Jays at Tropicana Field at the right time.

Toronto arrived in central Florida, reeling after being swept by the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs in a three-game weekend series. Now the Jays have lost four in a row.

Toronto holds 9-8 advantage in the season series, but with a sweep, the Rays take the season series by a game. I like them to get it done tonight.

5* RAYS
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449727

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Jack Brayman

My free winner for Wednesday is on the New York Yankees over the Detroit Tigers, and we're going to lay the Run Line in this game.

Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Luis Severino and Jordan Zimmerman. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.

Once the Yankees builds an early lead for Severino, the right-hander who has won five of his last six outings will take over to seal the win. Severino has held opponents to 10 earned runs (2.48 ERA) and 29 hits (.204 BA) over 36.1 innings during that six-game span. Severino will be ready to neutralize the Tigers.

Meanwhile, after three straight seven-inning quality starts, Zimmermann has been tagged for seven runs in back-to-back outings. Now he faces a dangerous lineup like the Yankees?

Take the road team big.

1* YANKEES
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449728

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Jeff Benton

Your Wednesday freebie is the Yankees on the Run Line over the Tigers.

New York and Aaron Judge have to feel like an albatross has been taken off their backs, as Judge was able - with the help of skipper Joe Girardi - to end his strikeout record of 37 games in a row last night, and his team was able to slug their way to a whopping 13 runs, as they kept pace in the A.L. East race.

Look for the Yankees to play loose-and-free again tonight as they have their ace Luis Severino mound-bound.

Sevvy was able to shake off his worst start of the season against the Red Sox his last time out with 6-plus innings of solid ball against the Mets, as he allowed just an unearned run and fanned 9 batters.

Jordan Zimmerman will counter for the Tigers, and he is 0-2 his last 3 starts with a whopping 17 runs allowed in just 15-plus innings of work.

The Tigers are on a 3-13 nosedive, and I don't see that changing tonight.

Yankees in a pound-job.

3* N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449729

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Brad Wilton

Wednesday's comp play will be to side once again with Corey Kluber to help keep his team Under the total as the Indians play the Red Sox.

Kluber has allowed 3 runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts this season, and the Under is 3-1 his last 4 trips to the hill. At Progressive Field his ERA is 2.09 for the year, and 7 of his 11 home starts have ended up holding Under the total.

Boston will go with Drew Pomeranz who has an ERA of 2.20 for his last 3 starts, and while he did leave his last start against the Yankees after just 3-plus innings, he has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his last 12 starts.

I think we see a game in which both pitchers come out on top of their games, and the runs are scarce.

Let's go with Boston and Cleveland to hold Under the total on Wednesday night.

3* BOSTON-CLEVELAND UNDER
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449730

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Eric Schroeder

My free play is on the Washington Nationals, who are in Houston for an Interleague battle with the Astros, pitting two of the best hitting teams in baseball and a pair of division leaders.

And I'm sorry, but I just can't buy into the Nationals getting this big a price, as I'm seeing the line between +145 and +150. In this one, list both scheduled starters: Edwin Jackson and Mike Fiers.

Looking to continue his run of efficiency and effectiveness, Jackson limited the Padres to just one run in his previous start, needing a mere 83 pitches to get through seven innings. In six starts with the Nationals, the veteran right-hander has a 2.92 ERA. Tonight he'll be much better than the books expect.

Meanwhile, Fiers has been dealt a loss in four of his past five starts, despite showing improvement on Thursday, when he was tagged for seven hits and three runs while striking out seven over 5.1 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He is now 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA in his last three starts.

Play the Nationals at a ridiculous value and list both.

4* NATIONALS
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449731

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
SCOTT RICKENBACH

A's vs. Orioles
Play:A's +170

Since the All Star break Daniel Gossett has been rock solid in 3 of his 4 starts for the Athletics including each of his 2 road starts. Overall, in all 3 outings he allowed a total of just 6 earned runs on only 15 hits in 20 innings of solid work. That equates to a 2.70 ERA in those 3 starts and Gossett now makes his first ever start against the Orioles. Baltimore's lack of familiarity with him will work to his advantage. Conversely, Dylan Bundy (whom admittedly has been pitching very well) just faced the A's less than 2 weeks ago. Oakland got to Bundy for 2 homers in that game and they'll take advantage of getting a quick "second look" at him in this rematch coming just 11 days later. The Orioles are just 5-9 the last two weeks and yet they're very nearly a 2 to 1 favorite here! The A's are absolutely worth a look here given the generous underdog price being offered and the fact that Gossett has been pitching very well on the road in recent outings.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449732

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
BRANDON LEE

Yankees -1½ -115

New York is worth a look here on the run line Wednesday night in Detroit. The Yankees got the bats going with 13 runs on 16 hits in a 9-run win last night. They are in a prime spot to build in on that momentum with their ace Luis Severino on the mound. Severino is 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA in 24 starts on the season and is 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 13 road starts. As for the Tigers, they are in a free fall, having lost 9 of their last 11 games. They send out Jordan Zimmermann, who has been a major disappointment with a 5.87 ERA in 24 starts. He's got a 6.00 ERA in 11 road starts and has allowed 14 runs on 18 hits in his last 2 starts.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449733

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
Rocketman

Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Chicago -139

The Chicago Cubs travel to Cincinnati to take on the Reds on Wednesday night. The Chicago Cubs are 67-57 SU overall this year while Cincinnati comes in with a 53-73 SU overall record on the season. Asher Wojciechowski is 2-2 with a 7.39 ERA overall this year, 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA at home this season and 2-1 with a 6.90 ERA his last 3 starts. Wojciechowski is 0-1 with a 17.17 ERA in his one career start vs the Cubs. Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.9 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 5.4 runs per game against division opponents this season. Cincinnati is allowing 5.6 runs per game overall this year, 5.4 runs per game at home this season, 7.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 5.5 runs per game on grass and 5.8 runs per game against division opponents. Chicago Cubs are 37-15 overall vs Cincinnati the past 3 years. Cubs are 12-2 this year on the road when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. Chicago Cubs are 68-26 last 3 years as a road favorite of -125 to -175. Cincinnati is 2-11 last 3 years and 2-8 this year at home when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. Cincinnati is 8-24 this year against left handed starters. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs tonight!
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449734

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
JOSEPH D'AMICO

Washington vs. Houston
Play: Washington +151

With yesterday's 4-3 victory, Washington has now taken 9 straight over Houston. The Nationals own an NL best, 40-23 road record, as they average over 5.27 RPG as a guest. Edwin Jackson has won b-2-b starts as the RH improved to 4-2 with a 3.43 mark on the campaign. Mike Fiers has gotten "lit-up" over his L5 turns, going 0-4, with a whopping, 7.36 ERA, to bring the RH's record up to 7-8, with a 4.32 ERA. Washington is 4-0 their L4 gammas played vs. RH starters, 5-1 their L6 games played on the road, and 7-0 their L7 games played in Houston. T
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449735

  • Blade
  • Blade's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 311460
  • Thank you received: 551
  • Karma: 64
DENNIS MACKLIN

Blue Jays vs. Rays
Play: Under 8½

Neither team is hitting a lick (Toronto .244, Tampa Bay .217 L7) and both are scoring less than four runs a game over that time period. The Jays are on a current run of 8-3 to the Under while the Rays are 15-4 Under for the entire month of August. Looking at tonight's starters, Marcus Stroman (13-7, 2.99) has been good all year and has been especially sharp of late off three straight quality starts with a 1.71 ERA. Austin Pruitt's numbers are skewed from a bad outing vs. Seattle in last but the Under is 6-0 in is starts since being called up. Runs will be at a premium here.
The administrator has disabled public write access.
  • Page:
  • 1
  • 2

Top Stories