Free Picks for Wednesday, August 16th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Rickenbach
Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Giants +155
The Giants have been much more competitive in recent weeks and I see value here with the underdog. The early line move already went their way as this line opened up in the 175 range but already dropped some as of Tuesday night. San Francisco is worth a look here because Miami's Jose Urena certainly has inconsistencies and the Giants Matt Cain is making his first start since July 31st. After being relegated to bullpen duty I wouldn't be surprised to see the veteran come up big with a solid start here as he looks to respond here at the tail end of a disappointing campaign. Cain has only made one start against the Marlins since mid-July of 2015 and that was in April of last season! The point is that Miami hasn't seen much of Cain lately and that is an edge for him. As bad as his overall numbers are Cain has truly only had one ugly start since a bad one on June 22nd. That said, don't be surprised if he and the Giants surprise quite a few people early Wednesday. San Francisco entered last night's action with a winning record in the month of August and they did just face Urena last month and they gave him some trouble. Look for more of the same here.
Mike Lundin
Braves vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -156
The Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks are five games clear of the rest of the pack in the National League Wild Card race, but they've lost seven of their last 10 following yesterday's 4-3 defeat to the Braves, Atlanta's first win at Coors Field in 11 attempts.
The Rockies need to pick up the pace again if they're to make it to the postseason, and this looks like a good spot to back Colorado with Jon Gray on the mound. Gray (4-2, 4.92 ERA) dominated the Braves in two starts last year, going 1-0 with an 0.64 ERA. The roght-hander is a solid 3-0 with 3.00 ERA in four starts at home this season, not an easy feature considering the characteristics of Coors Field.
The Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz (10-7, 4.29 ERA) who gave up six runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings at St. Louis his last time out. He's 5-5 with a somewhat bloated 4.88 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts) on the road this season and 0-2 with a 3.20 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against the Rockies.
The Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 road games. The Rockies are 11-4 in their last 15 home games.
Dave Price
Royals vs. Athletics
Play: Royals -128
The Kansas City Royals will be hungry for a victory after blowing an 8-4 lead in the 8th inning to the A's last night. They are still very much alive in the AL wild card and AL Central races. Danny Duffy gets the ball Wednesday and is easily their most talented starter. Duffy has gone 7-8 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 19 starts this year. Duffy has never lost to the A's, going 3-0 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them. Paul Blackburn sports a 4.50 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 4 home starts this year for the A's. Oakland is 1-5 in its last 6 games following a win.
Scott Spreitzer
Cardinals vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -135
We have backed the Cards several times with Lynn on the mound, but one alarming stat is just too much to overlook in this particular matchup -- Lynn's propensity to award hitters free passes. He's been able to overcome walks, but he's facing the wrong team at he wrong time in our opinion. The Cardinal righty has allowed 13 walks in his last 18 innings or work. Boston has been top-10 in several key offensive categories in August, including owning the 5th best OPS. Boston enters on a 9-1 run against righthanded starters and have won four straight when Rodriguez starts against NL teams. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have struggled badly against AL lefties over the past few seasons.
Marc Lawrence
White Sox vs. Dodgers
Play: White Sox +290
Edges - White Sox: Rodon 9-3 away career tam starts during August; and 24 Ks with 2 BBs last three starts… Dodgers: Darvish 5.25 ERA home as opposed to 2.34 ERA away this season; and 1-2 career team starts versus the White Sox… With Darvish 0-6 in his last six overall team starts, we recommend a 1* play on this big dog tonight.
Ricky Tran
Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Over 10
An early turn around for these two ball clubs having played late into the night on Tuesday. The good news being neither pitcher is dominant so the bats will be swinging freely on Wednesday.
It should be noted, Baltimore starter Ubaldo Jimenez left his last outing after getting hit in the right calf by a batted ball, so there could be some lingering effects. Even if he is well rested it doesn't seem to help him, the Over is 17-7 in Jimenez's last 24 starts with 4 days of rest.
Seattle pitcher Marco Gonzales has only pitched 11 innings in the majors this year and he's allowed as many runs as innings pitched - 11. His 8.49 ERA and on base percentage of .352 won't strike much fear into the Mariners lineup. Expect a shaky performance.
- Over is 7-2-1 in Mariners last 10 overall.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Mariners last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
Bonus: Home plate umpire Adrian Johnson has seen the total go over in each of his last 4 games - a sign he has a batter friendly strike box.
Jack Jones
Braves vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -155
It has been like night and day for the Rockies home and away. They are a tremendous home team, going 36-22 at home this season while hitting .301 and scoring 6.1 runs per game at Coors Field. After blowing a late lead and losing 4-3 to the Braves yesterday, they should be highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight.
Mike Foltynewicz appears to be wearing down in really his first full season as a starter. He is 1-2 with an 8.31 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in his last three starts. Foltynewicz is also 5-5 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in 13 road starts this year.
Unlike Foltynewicz, Jon Gray is fresh and ready for a big finish. That's because he has spent most of the year on the disabled list. But he has been good when healthy, especially at home, going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts at Coors Field this season. And Gray is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in two career starts against Atlanta, allowing just one earned run in 14 innings while striking out 16 batters.
The Braves are 2-8 in their last 10 road games. The Rockies are 11-4 in their last 15 home games. Colorado is 5-0 in Gray's last five home starts. Atlanta is 1-11 in its last 12 meetings in Colorado.
John Martin
Diamondbacks vs. Astros
Play;Diamondbacks
I think it's worth taking a shot on the Arizona Diamondbacks at a nice underdog price Wednesday. The Astros have struggled over the last couple weeks due to injury and haven't been able to string together any winning streaks. Houston is 0-6 in its last six games following a win. The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last eight interleague games. Taijuan Walker has been especially good on the road this season at 4-3 with a 3.11 ERA over 10 starts. The Astros are just 2-6 in their last eight games overall.
Ben Burns
Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
Play: Toronto -135
Prior to the season, I was asked to suggest a pitcher who would exceed, or fall short of, his projected win total. I chose Stroman. Here's what I said at the time:
"Health had previously been a problem for Stroman. Last year, he stayed fairly healthy but managed only nine wins. That sub-par result has helped keep this season's projected win total quite low. He enters spring training in great health and with a great attitude. Supported by what should be a strong Jays' offense, I like his chances of exceeding 10 wins. Consider going Over 10.5."
Stroman currently sits at 10 wins. For the season, he's 10-6 with a 3.00 ERA. At home, he could easily be better than 4-4, as he's got a 2.61 ERA here. I like his chances of picking up Win #11 here. Last time out, Stroman allowed four runs in eight innings. All four of those runs were unearned though; he only gave up four total hits in the eight innings. He's averaging better than seven innings his last three starts, recording a 2.49 ERA.
Faria, on the other hand, is 0-2 with a poor 5.06 ERA his last three starts. During that 16 inning span, he's walked 10 batters.
Stroman pitched very well (2 runs, 7 1/3 innings, 10 K's) against the Rays here back in the spring but came away with a no-decision. Expect him to do his thing once again, giving the Jays a solid shot at the victory.
Jim Feist
Cardinals at Royals
Pick: Under
St. Louis is on a 17-6-4 run under the total with better pitching than offense. Michael Wacha (3.66 ERA) takes the mound throwing well, allowing 1 run or less in five of his last seven starts. Wacha allowed a single run on five hits and three walks while striking out five batters over four innings during Thursday's loss to Milwaukee, 2-1. St. Louis is 37-16-6 under the total against the AL Central division. Kansas City has a hot and cold offense, 7-1 under against losing teams. Jason Vargas (13-5, 3.10 ERA) has been great and the under is 20-8 when he starts. And the Under is 10-2-5 in the last 17 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
SEATTLE -105 over Baltimore
What the market will see here is Ubaldo Jimenez’s 2.50 ERA over his last three starts going up against Marco Gonzales and his 8.49 ERA over his last three starts. We’ll now attempt to take advantage of that market perception.
Ubaldo Jimenez just keeps suffering through brutal stretches because his stuff is pedestrian at best and because he has nothing but trouble getting the ball over the plate. Shaky control, a 7% swing and miss rate, a 5.27 xERA and a high percentage of disaster starts show he's extremely flammable, which means we’re in fade mode when he’s favored or when he’s in an evenly priced game like he is here. Jimenez brings his 51% first-pitch strike rate to this start to go along with his 1.54 WHIP and 52 walks in 117 innings. Jimenez’s WHIP is even worse over his last five games at 1.64. Jimenez will either get in and out of jams today or he won’t but he’s always creating them. That provides the opposition with plenty of scoring chances almost every time he takes the hill and now it’s just a matter of how Seattle does with RISP.
Marco Gonzales was traded from the Cardinals to the Mariners near the deadline in exchange for minor league outfielder Tyler O'Neil, the No. 2 prospect in Seattle's organization. Gonzales starred at Gonzaga University in Spokane, Washington on his way to becoming a first-round pick of the Cardinals in the 2013 MLB draft. The M’s thought highly enough of him to give up one of their best prospects to get him and he’ll now make just his third start for the M’s since the trade. His first two starts were not pretty but we’re not putting a lot of emphasis on them after the excitement of being traded to the team he grew up watching. The dust has settled and hopefully so has Gonzales.
Gonzales has over 300 innings in the minors with close to 200 of those innings having been spent in the pitching difficult PCL league. He only allowed an oppBA of .238 in those aforementioned PCL innings. Gonzales shot through the Cardinals system after being drafted in the first round in 2013, reaching the majors the following season, and then succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2015. The 6’1”, 195-pound lefty out of Gonzaga was never considered a high-upside pitcher but his floor is considered to be a rock-solid #3 starter who will pitch above his stuff and offer good ratios, if the Ks aren’t always there. Reports are that the command on his fastball is near to what it was pre-injury, and that he’s working more consistently 91 than 88 or 89 with it. The change is still a plus-to-plus-plus pitch that he continues to throw in any count. Paired with an average curve and a command profile that still projects plus when he’s all the way back, Gonzales still has middle-of-the-rotation upside. He’s always kept his team in games while limiting the damage. Gonzales is a well-established lefty-killer, currently holding them to a .143/.200/.214 slash line and now he’s paid his dues. We like the profile, we like the price and we like the team he pitches for because they can score runs with anyone.
BOSTON -1½ +144 over St. Louis
Eduardo Rodriguez tweaked his right knee while warming up in the bullpen prior to his June 1 start at Baltimore. That is the same knee that he dislocated in 2016, which resulted in his 1st half getting washed out by that dislocated kneecap that whacked his mechanics, but 29 K’s in the final 17 innings put a strong finish on his 2nd half rebound. Rodriguez has made just six starts since being injured back on June 1. He’s struck out 96 batters in 88 frames overall and appears to be getting stronger. Rodriguez brings risk because he’s been so inconsistent but all told, he gives up less than a hit per inning (74 hits allowed in 87.2 frames) and his K-rate remains among the elite. He’s also been terrific at home and he’ll now face a Cardinals nine that is far below league average against lefties.
The Cardinals came into this series as one of the hottest teams in the majors and proceeded to get their asses handed to them in the opener last night in a 10-4 loss. What the Cardinals found out is that they’re not playing Atlanta or Cincinnati anymore and the same fate could be in store for them here.
Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP) is a pure luck-driven stat that will help determine if a pitcher has a good or bad year on paper. Every year there are extremes at both ends of the spectrum and this year’s top beneficiary is Lance Lynn with a BABIP of .225. To give you an idea of how lucky that is, consider some of today’s other starter’s BABIP, like Gerit Cole’s .345 BABIP, Marcus Stroman’s .326 or Clayton Richard’s .338. Lynn’s BABIP is more than 100 points lower than any of those guys but eventually it all evens out and Lynn’s luck is going to run out too. That doesn’t mean it will happen today but the point is that Lynn is the luckiest pitcher in baseball with an ERA/xERA split of 3.20/4.61. Over his last three starts, Lynn’s xERA is 7.14. Over his last 30 frames covering his last five starts, Lynn has struck out a mere 16 batters. His first-pitch strike rate is 53% overall and down to 48% over his last three starts. His swing and miss rate is 7% and now his line-drive rate is also increasing, as it’s gone from 18% to 28% over his last seven starts. All the signs of fatigue are there while the poor skills have been there all season long. Lynn’s extremely misleading 3.12 ERA is actually mind-boggling and is more proof of just how inaccurate ERA’s can be. That shiny ERA is a direct result of extreme luck that includes balls being hit right at people. There's a huge gap between Lynn's ERA and xERA and now he's due for some serious regression but that regression may not even stop at that 4.61 xERA, because his first-pitch strike rate is so low that there's reason to believe his control rate is going to climb higher, and more walks would mean even more runs. Pay attention to Lance Lynn’s xERA over his last seven starts (7.14) and attack with confidence.
MIAMI -1½ +129 over San Francisco
Jose Urena is carrying an xERA nearly a run-and-a-quarter higher than his 3.76 surface mark. He struggled against San Fran earlier this season (July 9) and he's coming off an iffy home outing in his last. That being noted, the foe here warrants this play. The Giants are woeful against right-handers and fly-ball types. They are a bottom-3 offense closing out a road trip which included a doubleheader and a 3,000-mile flight home awaits them Wednesday evening. San Fran may show up in body only.
The Marlins lost 9-4 last night but it was against Madison Bumgarner and they still scored four times. The night before in the opener of this series, Miami scored eight times and now this wicked dangerous offense will face Matt Cain. Cain is simply awful and perhaps the worst starter in the game. If the Giants had any chance of making the postseason or if they weren’t paying him a fortune, you would not see this stiff anywhere near the pitching mound. Cain has a rancid 45 walks issued with 61 K’s in 109 innings. His WHIP is 1.68, his swing and miss rate is 4% and his line-drive rate is 27%. Matt Cain does nothing well except collect his pay-check. Matt Cain is being paid 20 million this season, which is absolutely the only reason he’s still pitching. Cain brings an xERA of 5.22 into this start but that’s because he’s started 12 of his 22 games at home, which is the friendliest pitcher’s park in the majors. On the road, Cain is 0-6 with a 7.69 ERA and an xERA of 8.11. We can’t imagine that the Giants get up for a game knowing that Cain is starting. We’re recommending you get in very early on this line because there is a great chance that the Giants will be resting some of their vets because this is an early start after a night game. Not only do the Marlins have a serious advantage on the mound, they have a serious advantage everywhere else and now you can add a situational advantage for the icing on the cake.
Atlanta -1½ +215 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
18-34 + 10.55 units
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto -135
The Tampa Bay Rays broke out of an offensive slump with 13 hits in Tuesday's 6-4 victory in the second game of their four-game series in Toronto against the Blue Jays. Tampa Bay is currently 1 1/2 games behind the LA Angels, while Toronto, which fell to 8-5 in August, remains on the fringe of the AL wild-card race at 3 1/2 games back but with seven teams ahead of them. With Tuesday's result, the teams have split 14 meetings this season.
Rookie Jacob Faria (5-3, 3.19 ERA) will get the start for the Rays and Marcus Stroman (10-6, 3.00 ERA), who owns a 1.98 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay this year, goes for Toronto. Faria began his career 5-1 over his first nine starts (team was 7-2) but is win-less in his last three outings, allowing nine ERs over 16 innings (5.06 ERA) to go 0-2 (team is 1-2). Faria made his second career start against Toronto back on June 13, permitting one run on six hits with eight strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings of an 8-1 victory. Stroman has posted just one victory in his last six games (Jays are 3-3) but also has just one loss in that span, a setback against Pittsburgh this past Friday in which he surrendered four unearned runs over eight innings. Stroman is 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA against the Rays in nine career starts (team is 4-5).
The Rays may have produced 13 hits and six runs last night but that came against Marco Estrada, who is now 0-4 with a 10.61 ERA against the Rays this season and is 0-7 with a 7.75 ERA in his past eight starts against them! Let's not ignore that Tampa Bay had been in a prolonged slump just prior to last night's outburst, having scored only 12 runs in their previous 10 games, eight of them losses. That includes a 2-1 defeat at Toronto on Monday. Stroman has 15 Ks in 13.2 innings against the Rays in two 2017 starts as well as that 1.98 ERA. Meanwhile, Faria seems to be losing some of his earlier mojo. Take the Blue Jays.
Will Rogers
Royals vs, Athletics
Pick: Under 9.5
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals squandered an early three-run advantage on Tuesday but scored five runs on three HRs in the eighth inning to grab an 8-4 lead. However, the Royals allowed six runs in the bottom of the eighth in a 10-8 defeat. That snapped the team's three-game winning streak and the Royals are now 3-4 as they look to cap an eight-game road trip with Wednesday afternoon's rubber match of a three-game series at Oakland. The 60-59 Royals are in a virtual tie with the 59-58 Twins, a half-game back of 61-59 Angels for the AL's second wild card spot. As for the A's, their 53-67 record is better than only the 45-71 White Sox in the American League.
The pitching matchup: Danny Duffy (7-8 & 3.68 ERA) gets the start for KC and Paul Blackburn (3-1 & 3.02 ERA) for Oakland. Duffy allowed just one run in each of his final two starts in July but has struggled this month, surrendering 12 runs - eight earned - on 14 hits over 12 innings in losses to Seattle and the Chicago White Sox (6.00 ERA). The good news for KC here is that Duffy has yet to lose to Oakland, going 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in five starts (team is 4-1) and one relief appearance. Blackburn is a rookie making his ninth career start (A;s are 5-3 in his starts this year) and enters on a four-start unbeaten streak after he escaped with a no-decision when surrendering four runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings against Baltimore in a 5-4 Oakland win last Friday. Blackburn will be facing Kansas City for the first time,.
The pick: I like Duffy's history against the A's, as he is one of three active players with a perfect record and a sub-3.00 ERA against Oakland in at least five starts, joining with Miami's Wei-Yin Chen (5-0 & 2.30 ERA) and Baltimore's Chris Tillman (4-0 & 2.51 ERA). Let's also note that during a season in which the ball is flying out of parks at an alarming rate, Duffy has allowed only 10 HRs in 120 innings (He has not given up a HR in 14 of his 19 starts). As for Blackburn, the rookie has shown quite a bit of promise.
Bruce Marshall
Yankees at Mets
Pick: Over
Jaime Garcia has bounced between three teams this season but one constant in his performance going back a few years has been problems against the Mets, against whom Garcia was 0-3 with a 5.64 ERA from 2014-16 and 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in 2017. Meanwhile Robert Gsellman returns to action for the Mets after nearly two months on the DL, and the "plus" Run Line price intrigues.