Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, August 15th, 2017

Scott Rickenbach

Mets vs. Yankees
Play: Mets +131

As mentioned in yesterday's write-up about a similar match-up Monday, there is substantial line value here because it is certainly hard to justify the Yanks being such a big favorite in this spot. Entering Monday, the Yankees had lost 8 of their last 12 games and they had averaged just 7 hits per game in their last 4 games. Conversely, entering Monday, the Mets had won 4 of their last 6 games and they had tallied at least a dozen hits in 3 of those 4 games. While the Mets entered the new week with momentum by taking 3 of 4 from a division rival this past weekend (albeit the deplorable Phillies), the Yankees came into the new week a little frustrated after losing 2 of 3 to the Red Sox including a disappointing tight low-scoring loss Sunday night. The Yankees, entering the new week, had lost 9 of 14 since a late July winning streak. The value is clearly with the road dog here with Jacob deGrom on the mound. The Mets right-hander has struck out 27 in his last 17 and 2/3 innings. Even though Sonny Gray has been pitching well since coming to the Yankees, the fact is that he is 0-3 in his last 3 starts. He's just not getting run support and that most certainly could be an issue again here. With deGrom's win at Philadelphia in his most recent start the Mets are now 8-4 in his 12 road starts this season. A lot of pressure on Gray here as this is his first home start at Yankee Stadium.

Mike Lundin

Tigers vs. Rangers
Play: Tigers -114

The Detroit Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 following a 6-2 loss here at Arlington in the opener of a three-game series Monday night. This looks like a good spot to back the Tigers to bounce back though as they hand the ball to Justin Verlander.

Verlander (8-7, 3.97 ERA) is 10-5 with a 2.78 ERA in 18 career starts against Texas. That includes a 4-1 record with a 3.19 ERA and 42 Ks in six starts here at Arlington. Verlander is coming off his best start of the season as he held the Pirates scoreless through eight innings his last time out.

The Rangers turn to A.J. Griffin (5-3, 5.40 ERA) who was knocked around for four runs on four hits and three walks with three homers in five innings of a 5-4 loss to the Mets his last start. The 29 year old right-hander lasted only 3 1/3 innings while surrendering nine runs on nine hits in a 9-3 loss to the Tigers on May 20 to fall to 1-3 with a 10.88 ERA in five career starts against Detroit.

We can also note that the Tigers are 8-1 in their last nine games with John Tumpane calling the balls and strikes.

Darryl Tucholski

Cleveland at Minnesota
Play: Cleveland -166

Cleveland has won 4 straight and is looking to extend the streak against the Twins (27-33 at home) Bartolo Colon, and his 6.77 ERA will not be able to contain the speed on the basepaths tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -113

The Pirates are on a 1-5 slide in Nova's last six starts and the righthander has been tagged for a 6.75 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 2.25 HR's per 9 IP ratio during the stretch. I think he's going to need some help from his mates at the plate tonight, but that's not likely with Pittsburgh ranked 26th in team batting average and OBP, and 28th in OPS in August. The Brewers have won two straight (we had them on Sunday) and while Zach Davies struggled last time out, he did toss four straight quality starts before that. And we also note that 10 of the 11 hits he gave up to Minnesota were singles. The Brewers are 15-6 in his last 21 starts and 6-1 when he toes the home rubber against teams with a losing record. As a team, Milwaukee is on a 13-4 run at home against teams with a losing road record.

Stephen Nover

Angels vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -114

This is a cheap enough price to back the Nationals and Gio Gonzalez at home where he has a 1.95 ERA. Gonzalez is in excellent form, too, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts. Mike Trout is only 1-for-13 lifetime against Gonzalez.

Angels starter, lefty Tyler Skaggs, is making his third start since being out more than three months with an oblique injury. He looked much better in his second outing than his first. Skaggs, though, still is dealing with control problems and is not in Gonzalez's class. The Nationals are 15-8 versus lefty starters this season.

The Nationals have fortified their bullpen to the point where it is a strength now not a weakness. The Angels, on the other hand, still don't have a definite closer.

The lay price is low on the Nationals because the Angels have been playing well and Bryce Harper is out. But this is a tough spot for the Angels coming to the East Coast for the first time this month. All of their August games have been played on the West Coast until now.

The Nationals are without their starting outfield from opening day of Harper, Adam Eaton and Jayson Werth. However, the Nationals have excellent outfield depth and just got back center fielder Michael Taylor. They've also added versatile Howie Kendrick, who is batting .375 in his first 40 at bats for Washington.

Chip Chirimbes

Astros vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks

Houston leads the majors with a team .290 batting average but have had problems keeping their rotation in tack. Brad Peacock (10-1, 3.07 ERA) has picked up the slack with eight players on the DL as the Astros have dropped 10 of their last 13 games. That trend continues here.

Marc Lawrence

Tigers vs. Rangers
Play: Tigers -120

Edges - Tigers: Verlander 1.91 ERA with 1.02 WHIP last seven overall team starts… Rangers: Griffin 8.64 ERA with 1.92 WHIP home this season; and Griffin 5.97 ERA last seven starts; and Griffin 0-2 last two team starts versus Detroit. With Verlander 5-0 in his last five overall team starts during August, we recommend a 1* play on Detroit.

Matt Josephs

Cardinals vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 10

Rick Porcello and Mike Leake face off again with the scene shifting to Boston. Porcello gave up four runs and nine hits in six innings in St. Louis back on May 17th. He's 4-8 with a 5.24 ERA in 13 starts at home this season. The righty has allowed nine runs in his last two outings there to the White Sox and Royals. St. Louis is hitting .312 in their last seven games and .276 in interleague play. They've gone over in 13 of 15 games against the American League. Leake has allowed 11 runs and 23 hits in his last three starts. The Red Sox offense is in good form right now and is hitting .279 in interleague play. Both bullpens are pretty good so we'll need a lot of runs allowed early on. I think these two light up the scoreboard on Tuesday.

Ben Burns

Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7½

Both starters should come in with confidence. Bumgarner, in particular, has been outstanding of late. Over his last three starts, the Giants' southpaw sports a superb 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP.

Those three starts came against the likes of the Cubs, Dbax and Dodgers, too. All three of those teams score considerably more than the Marlins. Those three teams rank #5, #6 and #12 in terms of runs scored per game. In fact, they're 2, 3, and 4 in the NL, only Colorado averaging more. By comparison, the Marlins rank 17th in the majors. Respectable, but not as strong as the offenses Bumgarner has just dominated. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Marlins typically don't hit well against left-handers, either.

Bumgarner will also have the advantage of facing the Marlins for the first time since 2015. For the season, he's got a 2.71 ERA in 10 starts, the UNDER going 6-3-1. On the road, his ERA dips to a stingy 2.31 to go along with an excellent 0.971 WHIP.

Like Bumgarner, Straily should feel pretty good about today's matchup. Not only does he have a 2.84 ERA in 12 starts here this season, but he's also 4-0 with a commanding 1.91 ERA (0.741 WHIP!) in four starts vs. SF. Not surprisingly, three of those four games stayed below the number. Expect a well pitched-affair and take a look at the "Under."

Brian Hay

Royals vs. Athletics
Play: Royals -114

The Kansas City Royals will start righty Jason Hammel tonight. Hammel is 5-9 with a 4.68 ERA in 130.2 innings this season. Oakland will send righty Chris Smith out to the hill. Smith is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA in 34 innings of work. The Oakland A’s are 0-4 in their last four Tuesday games. Kansas City has the better team and pitcher starting tonight and with a short line we will use Kansas City -115 for your MLB Free Play

ASA

Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Giants -105

The Giants are off of a loss yesterday but they had won 7 of 12 prior the defeat at Miami. In game two of this series, with Madison Bumgarner on the mound, we expect San Francisco to bounce back. The Marlins, prior to yesterday, really hadn't been hitting the ball all that well and had averaged only 3.6 runs per game in their 10 games prior to the big win last night. Now Miami faces Bumgarner and the lefty is heating back up with a 1.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. He should outduel the Marlins Daniel Straily here as the Miami right-hander has allowed 16 earned runs in his 26 and 1 / 3 innings over his 5 starts since the All-Star break. Also, Straily has given up 43 hits in his last 31 and 1 / 3 innings. The Giants hold a huge pitching edge here and we also like the added line value because this line is all the way down to a pick'em price range after opening up as high as -135 in some books. FREE PLAY ON San Francisco on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.

Andrew Gold

Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 9½

The books must think that both teams are due to blow up here tonight and score a bunch of runs. I surely dont see it as the Rays have scored just a whopping 8 runs their last 5 games and the total has gone under in all of them. Last night these teams scored a combined 3 runs. Also the Blue Jays have gone under the total for 5 straight games as well.

The Blue Jays really struggle against lefties only averaging 3.6 runs a game. The Blue Jays will send out Estrada who should have no problem keeping the Rays in check as he has a 1.71 ERA his last 3 starts.

Larry Wallace

Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Orioles +100

Wade Miley has pitched very well in his last 3 games. He is 2-0 in those 3 games with a 2.12 ERA. Miley in his career against Seattle is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Albers hasn't pitched in the majors this year. Baltimore is 4-1 in their last 5 games with Miley on the mound. Seattle is 0-5 in their last 5 games overall.

Teddy Davis

Braves vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -1½

Think this is great value here with the Rockies on the RL as the Braves are falling apart. They have just 1 win in their last 7 games. They send their lefty Newcomb to the mound who owns a 1-7 record with a 4.45 ERA on the year. He has never faced the Rockies and we all know how different it is to pitch in Coors Field. I think he struggles big time and the Rockies blow them out