MLB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, August 15th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Giants @ Marlins
Bumgarner is 2-1, 1.38 in his last four starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Giants are 0-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5-3

Straily is 0-4, 5.54 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Miami lost his last his last three home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-2

Giants lost three of last four games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Miami won its last six home games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games.

Pirates @ Brewers
Nova is 0-3, 8.46 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Pirates are 1-6 in his last seven road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-1

Davies is 1-2, 4.58 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five. Brewers are 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-5

Pirates are 4-9 in last 13 road games; their last three games stayed under. Pittsburgh is 8-12 in road series openers. Milwaukee lost five of last seven games but won last two; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Brewers are 11-9 in home series openers.

Reds @ Cubs
Castillo is 1-1, 3.54 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Reds are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6

Hendricks is 0-2, 4.50 in his last six starts (under 5-1). Cubs are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2

Reds lost four of last five road games; their last nine games went over total. Cubs are 5-7 in last 12 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Braves @ Rockies
Newcomb is 0-5, 6.82 in his last seven starts (under 7-4). Braves are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-8

Freeland is 3-0, 2.75 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Colorado is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-1

Braves lost six of last seven games; over is 14-3-1 in their last 18 road games. Colorado lost five of last seven games; under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games.

Phillies @ Padres
Leiter is 1-1, 3.31 in three starts this year (under 2-0-1). Phillies are 2-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2

Lamet is 3-0, 2.31 in his last four starts (under 3-1). San Diego is 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6

Phillies lost four of last five games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. San Diego lost six of last nine games; six of their last seven games went over.

American League

Rays @ Blue Jays
Snell is 0-1, 3.69 in his last six starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight. Rays are 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-8-2

Estrada is 1-0, 2.08 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Toronto is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-13-3

Rays lost eight of last ten games (shut out 5 times); under is 11-1 in their last 12 games. Toronto won six of last eight home games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games.

Tigers @ Rangers
Verlander is 3-0, 0.86 in his last three starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Detroit is 3-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-11-3

Griffin is 1-1, 4.09 in two starts since coming off the DL; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven starts. Texas is 2-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4

Detroit lost eight of last ten games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Rangers won four of last five games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten home games.

Indians @ Twins
Salazar is 1-0, 1.42 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Cleveland is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-3

Colon is 2-0, 2.25 in his last two starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Twins are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2

Indians won their last four games; under is 6-0-1 in their last seven games. Cleveland is 9-11 in road series openers. Minnesota won seven of its last eight games (over 4-1-3). Twins are 10-9 in home series openers.

Royals @ A’s
Hammel is 1-1, 3.75 in his last six starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Royals are 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-5

Smith is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts (under 4-0-1). A’s are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1

Royals won their last three games; three of their last four games stayed under. Oakland lost 11 of last 16 home games (under 11-4-1).

Orioles @ Mariners
Miley is 3-0, 2.65 in his last three starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Baltimore is 7-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-2

Albers is making his first ’17 start; he is 2-5, 4.41 in 12 MLB starts, most of which were for Minnesota in 2013. He is 12-3, 2.61 in 26 AAA games (17 starts) this season. Seattle traded for the 31-year old lefty three days ago.

Baltimore won 11 of last 17 games; under is 9-5 in their last 14. Mariners lost their last five games; over is 6-3 in their last nine.

Interleague

Mets @ Bronx
deGrom is 4-2, 2.45 in his last six starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Mets are 8-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-7-1

Gray is 0-2, 5.25 in two starts for New York (under 2-0); they scored one run in the two games, both of which were on road. New York’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-2

Mets won three of last five games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Bronx lost three of last five games; under is 13-4 in their last 17 games.

Astros @ Diamondbacks
Peacock is 6-0, 3.00 in his last eight starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Houston is 6-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-2

Banda is 1-2, 4.60 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Arizona is 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-2

Astros lost eight of last nine road games; over is 16-7 in their last 23 road games. Arizona lost four of last six games; over is 5-3-2 in their last ten home games.

Angels @ Nationals
Skaggs is 1-1, 2.42 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Angels are 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-2

Gonzalez is 2-0, 1.23 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Washington is 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-5-5

Angels won their last six games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. Halos are 9-10 in road series openers. Washington won six of last eight games; their last four games stayed under. Nationals are 12-8 in home series openers.

Cardinals @ Red Sox
Leake is 0-2, 6.19 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. St Louis is 1-5 in his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-3

Porcello is 2-2, 4.78 in his last four starts; under is 4-2 in her last six. Boston is 5-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-16-2

Cardinals won eight of last nine games; their last seven games went over. St Louis is 7-11 in road series openers. Boston won 10 of last 12 games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine. Red Sox are 13-7 in home series openers.

White Sox @ Dodgers
Gonzalez is 1-1, 6.89 in his last three starts; over is 8-4 in his last 12. Chicago is 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-2

Wood is 3-0, 3.15 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Dodgers are 8-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-4-2

White Sox are 1-9 in last ten road games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Chicago is 6-13 in road series openers. Dodgers are 9-1 in last 10 games; three of their last four games went over LA is 14-6 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
SF-Mia: Bumgarner 2-8; Straily 11-13 (0-6 last 6)
Pitt-Mil: Nova 12-11; Davies 15-9
Cin-Cubs: Castillo 4-6; Hendricks 7-8
Atl-Colo: Newcomb 2-9; Freeland 14-7
Phil-SD: Leiter 2-1; Lamet 8-5

American League
TB-Tor: Snell 5-9; Estrada 11-13
Det-Tex: Verlander 11-13; Griffin 7-3
Clev-Minn: Salazar 6-8; Colon 2-3 (5-8 )
KC-A’s: Hammel 7-16; Smith 2-3
Balt-Sea: Miley 13-11; Albers 0-0

Interleague
NY-NY deGrom 15-8; Gray 0-2 (8-8 )
Hst-Az: Peacock 10-3; Banda 1-2
LAA-Wsh: Skaggs 4-3; Gonzalez 13-10
StL-Bos: Leake 10-13; Porcello 10-14
CWS-LA: Gonzalez 7-11; Wood 14-4

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
SF-Mia: Bumgarner 1-10; Straily 5-23
Pitt-Mil: Nova 8-23; Davies 8-24
Cin-Cubs: Castillo 2-10; Hendricks 6-15
Atl-Colo: Newcomb 2-11; Freeland 6-20
Phil-SD: Leiter 1-3; Lamet 5-13

American League
TB-Tor: Snell 4-14; Estrada 9-24
Det-Tex: Verlander 6-24; Griffin 3-10
Clev-Minn: Salazar 6-14; Colon 1-5 (6-18)
KC-A’s: Hammel 3-23; Smith 2-5
Balt-Sea: Miley 10-24; Albers 0-0

Interleague
NY-NY deGrom 7-23; Gray 3-17
Hst-Az: Peacock 1-13; Banda 2-3
LAA-Wsh: Skaggs 4-7; Gonzalez 7-23
StL-Bos: Leake 6-23; Porcello 7-24
CWS-LA: Gonzalez 6-18; Wood 2-18

Umpires

National League
SF-Mia: Underdogs are 6-3 in Knight games this season.
Cin-Cubs: Six of last eight Hudson games stayed under.
Atl-Colo: Three of four Additon games went over the total.
Phil-SD: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Holbrook games.

American League
TB-Tor: Over is 5-2-2 in last nine HGibson games.
Det-Tex: Four of last five Tumpane games went over.
KC-A’s: Last five Timmons games stayed under the total.
Balt-Sea: Five of last six Morales games stayed under.

Interleague
NY-NY: Five of last seven Guccione games stayed under.
Hst-Az: Five of last seven Hamari games stayed under.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 65-49 AL, favorites +$27
AL @ NL– 62-56 NL, favorites -$437
Total: 120-108 AL, favorites -$410

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 57-56-3
AL @ NL: Over 63-49-7
Total: Over 120-105-10

Armadillosports.com

Tuesday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Angels (6-0 past six games, 12-4 past 16 overall)

The Angels have had tremendous injury difficulties, including the loss of All-Star OF Mike Trout for an extended period. However, they have persevered, and now find themselves right in the mix for a wild-card spot thanks to a six-game winning streak. Now, they'll head east to face a Nationals club missing its biggest star, OF Bryce Harper (knee). The Halos have won 35 of their past 52 against National League East teams, and they're 6-1 over their past seven against left-handed starting pitchers. They have also posted a 5-0 mark over their past five road outings vs. LHP. The Nationals have won four of the past five by Gio Gonzalez, but they're 0-4 over his past four interleague outings. The Nats are also 2-5 over Gio's past seven home outings.

Coldest team: Rays (0-4 past four games, 2-8 past 10 overall)

The Rays were in the mix for a playoff spot, but they have done a slow burn down the American League standings. They're not done yet, but they're also not playing very well. They need to pick on the dregs of the league, but they're just 2-6 over their past eight against teams with a losing overall record. They have also dropped six of their past seven within the division while going 3-7 over Blake Snell's past 10 starts. The Rays also haven't handled their business against right-handed pitchers, going 0-4 over the past four outings. Tampa Bay is 2-6 over their past eight against Toronto, too, and 1-4 in their past five in Toronto. If the Rays have anything going for them, though, it's that they're facing Marco Estrada. The Jays are 0-7 in Estrada's past seven starts vs. Tampa.

Hottest pitcher: Gio Gonzalez, Nationals (10-5, 2.59 ERA)

Gonzalez dominated his past two outings against the Marlins, but now he'll be tasked with facing one of the hottest teams in baseball, the Angels. Gonzalez has managed 138 strikeouts over 149 1/3 innings while posting an impressive .209 opponent batting average and 1.14 WHIP. The Nationals have rattled off wins in four of Gonzalez's past five starts, while going 5-1 over his past six at home against teams with a winning overallrecord. They're also 12-5 across their past 17 games after a day off. They're also 7-2 in Gonzalez's past nine outings against a team with a winning record.

Coldest pitcher: Rick Porcello, Red Sox (6-14, 4.63 ERA)

Porcello has started to trend in the right direction lately, but he is still allowing way too many homers. He has served up 28 home runs through 151 2/3 innings to tie for fourth-most in the majors, and he has the most among all starting pitchers working on Tuesday. Working at home has been a problem, as he is 4-8 with a 5.24 ERA across 13 starts at Fenway Park while opponents are hitting .306 against him across just 79 innings. He'll get a crack at the Cardinals, a team playing very well of late. St. Louis has won eight of their past nine outings. The good news is that the Red Sox are 8-0 over Porcello's past eight interleague starts, 4-0 in his past four starts with five days of rest and 20-9 over his past 29 at Fenway.

Biggest UNDER run: Indians (8-1-2 past 11 overall)

The Indians continue to thump the under lately, posting an 8-1-2 record over their past 11 outings. The under is also 5-0-1 in their past six against a right-handed starting pitcher, while going 32-15-6 across their past 53 road outings. For Cleveland, the under is 37-18-4 in their past 59 against a team with a winning record, as they continue to score few runs on offense while their pitchers allow even less. The under is also 4-1 in Danny Salazar's past five overall while hitting in four of the past five against a team with a winning record. The under is also 25-10-3 in the past 38 games for the Indians inside the division.

Biggest OVER run: Cardinals (8-0 past eight overall)

The 'over' has connected in eight consecutive outings for the Cards, while going 7-0 across their past seven against a right-handed starting pitcher. In addition, the over is an impressive 11-1 over their past 12 interleague games vs. RHP. The over is 12-3-1 in their past 16 interleague road starts while going 12-2 in their past 14 against American League opponents. The under is 7-1 in Mike Leake's past eight starts with five days of rest, while going 8-1-1 across the past 10 starts in the first game of a new series. The Red Sox have been cooperating with the over lately, too, going 3-1-1 in their past five while hitting in each of Porcello's past seven outings working on five days of rest.

Matchup to watch: Yankees vs. Mets

The Mets turn to Jacob deGrom looking to keep the Yankees down, going 9-2 over his past 11 starts. The Mets are also an impressive 4-1 over his past five outings against American League clubs while going 6-2 over his past eight while recording a quality start in his last appearance. The Yankees look to stay hot, especially in interleague play. The Bronx Bombers have posted an 8-2 mark in their past 10 interleague games against a team with a losing record, 4-1 in their past five interleague games and 9-3 in their past 12 against NL East foes. The Yankees are also an impressive 47-22 in their past 69 interleague home outings against a team with a losing overall record. The Mets have posted just two wins in their past seven tries against their Big Apple rivals, while the 'over' is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings at 'The Stadium'.

Betcha didn’t know: The White Sox appeared to throw in the towel earlier in July, trading several key veteran pieces with an eye on the future. However, some of those younger players getting a shot are already starting to pay big dividends. Perhaps the future is quite bright on the south side. Rookie Nicky Delmonico is the first player in Chicago's long and storied franchise history to reach base in each of his first 12 major league games. He has posted an impressive .364 average with six runs scored, a home run and six RBI across 44 at-bats. The Pale Hose will certainly have their hands ful against a Dodgers squad which has won 48 of their past 57 outings, including 44 of their past 54 at Dodger Stadium.

Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-350) vs. White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Mets (+145) at Yankees

Biggest line move: Reds (+195 to +175) at Cubs

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Houston (-110) at Arizona; Total: 9.5

Brad Peacock and Anthony Banda get us started today at Chase Field with some matinee interleague action. Peacock has been one of the best bargains in baseball this season at his league minimum salary. He’s worked just 88 innings across 13 starts and 13 relief appearances, but has amassed 2.3 fWAR with a 3.07/2.89/3.89 slash line and 112 strikeouts on the season. Peacock has only allowed 67 hits in his 88 innings of work, so he has been pretty dominant. The only blemish is that he has allowed 44 walks, but you can pitch around walks when you don’t allow hits and strike out a lot of batters.

Since Peacock joined the rotation for good on May 22, he has a 3.52 ERA with a 2.99 FIP and a 3.85 xFIP. He has 90 strikeouts in those 71.2 innings of work. Peacock allowed seven of his 28 earned runs as a starter two outings ago against Toronto. He still managed to fight his way through six innings. Peacock has allowed 16 hits over his last two starts, so maybe we’re seeing a little bit of regression in terms of batted ball luck. Usually, we’ll see high-strikeout pitchers carry high BABIPs because they simply have a smaller sample size of balls in play allowed. He allowed just 13 hits over his previous four starts. The Diamondbacks have handled right-handed pitchers well this season, but Peacock is a tricky matchup for a team that hasn’t seen him.

Anthony Banda hasn’t fared well in the luck metrics over his first three MLB starts. As a result, he has a 4.60 ERA, but a 3.26 FIP. His 4.47 xFIP is influenced a little bit by sample size, but Banda has never had a high HR/FB% in the minors, so he should be an overachiever in this metric. Banda has worked 15.2 innings with eight runs allowed on 14 hits. He’s struck out 16 and walked five. Considering his assignments have been the Nationals, Giants, and Dodgers, he’s done well over, but, as you would expect, his best start did come at AT&T Park against San Francisco. He draws another tough assignment here today.

Money has trickled in on the home team thus far, but it hasn’t been an overly significant line move. The Astros are in freefall mode, as they have gone just 5-12 over their last 17 games and have given up ground in the AL West race. Whether it is complacency, injuries, or a Trade Deadline hangover, something is going on with this ballclub. It certainly makes sense to take a shot at the Diamondbacks in that respect. I think I’d rather take a look at the under with a getaway day tilt in the desert and a couple of guys that miss some bats.

Los Angeles at Washington (-120); Total: 8.5

Tyler Skaggs and Gio Gonzalez are the slated starters for this one in D.C. This number opened much higher and the market has spoken and it has spoken loudly. I’ve discussed Gio Gonzalez’s signs of regression. They really stand out after what he has done to the Marlins over his last two starts. Gonzalez is down to a 2.59 ERA with a 3.94 FIP and a 4.25 xFIP. His .246 BABIP against is 70 points below last season’s mark and 47 points below his career mark. His LOB% of 85.2 percent is over 11 percent higher than his career mark and nearly 18 percent higher than last season’s mark. He’s living about as right as one man can live in Major League Baseball.

Tyler Skaggs has worked seven games since returning from the DL. The promising pitching prospect just can’t stay healthy, but he’s only 26, so there’s still some margin for improvement there. Skaggs has a 3.63 ERA with a 3.39 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP in 39.2 innings of work. The surging Angels are hoping that their good fortunes traveled with them to the East Coast for this quick five-game trip to Washington and Baltimore.

At this point, despite the clear signs of regression for Gonzalez, I can’t fire on the Angels. The line has dropped about 30 cents and the Angels are making a cross-country trip. That doesn’t mean I can’t play the Angels team total over and hope that Gonzalez does, in fact, falter. That would be my approach tonight and that’s an important approach for all handicappers to keep in mind. You may miss a price in one spot, but you can almost always find a way to compensate.

Tampa Bay at Toronto (-115); Total: 9

Another huge mover today, and there are a handful of them, features Blake Snell and Marco Estrada in the AL East showdown north of the border. Bookmaker opened Toronto -140 and that number got smacked around quite a bit overnight and this morning. I find it really hard to back Blake Snell, who is barely a Major Leaguer at this point, especially with Brent Honeywell banging incessantly on the door. But, I also understand the desire to fade Marco Estrada.

The Rays haven’t hit for about a month and a half now, so that has influenced their prices quite a bit. In last night’s game with a total of 10, the Rays and Jays scratched out all of three runs. Toronto’s offense has been offensive this season, with very few hits in key situations and not a whole lot of runs. The Rays were living on the long ball, but even that has dried up a little bit here in recent weeks.

With a big line move and two pitchers that I don’t like, I won’t be invested in this one, but it does intrigue me to see a Snell/Estrada total at 9 after yesterday’s Odorizzi/Tepesch line was 10. I’m not sure oddsmakers know how to price either of these teams, which is probably a contributing factor to today’s line move.

St. Louis at Boston (-135); Total: 10

This line looks too high to me. The Cardinals are living right with the winning streak that they’re on and there are some underlying metrics, like Barrel FIP, which is calculated by Casey Boguslaw, that suggest that the Cardinals are getting pretty fortunate.

That being said, they’ll head to Fenway Park to take on the Red Sox tonight in some interleague action. Mike Leake will go for the Cardinals against Rick Porcello for the Red Sox. Leake is having a terrific season. He has a 3.48 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 3.90 xFIP. He has induced a few more ground balls this season and has limited home runs a little bit more as a result, but the biggest difference for Leake is that he has a league average LOB% this year. Last season, Leake had a lower FIP and xFIP, but a 4.69 ERA because of a 65.6 percent LOB%. This season, he has a 73 percent LOB%, so he has a good ERA.

It’s understandable why some people are looking at Leake for regression. He hasn’t carried an ERA like this since 2013 and that was with a 77.7 percent LOB% that led to a 3.37 ERA. Fenway Park can be tricky, with its short dimensions and we’ve seen some home runs recently hit there with very low hit probabilities. But, both pitchers are dealing with those elements and those conditions.

Rick Porcello has pitched a bit better of late, but the reigning Cy Young Award winner has a 4.63 ERA with a 4.39 FIP and a 4.29 xFIP in his 151.2 innings of work. His K and BB rates are solid, but he’s had no command this season and has the lowest GB% of his career. To me, he looks like a guy that is in the midst of a hangover from throwing 223 innings plus one playoff start last year. Porcello has allowed 28 HR this season and has given up nine in his last five starts, so his command hasn’t really gotten any better since the Break.

While there are concerns about Leake and the sustainability of what the Cardinals are doing, I’ll be looking to back them today. This line is too high given what Porcello has done this season. Quietly, the Cardinals are a top-10 offense in wOBA against RHP. The Red Sox, for all of their talent and great park factor, rank just 20th in wOBA against RHP.

San Francisco (-105) at Miami; Total: 7.5

I understand what the market is doing, but that doesn’t mean that I have to agree with it. Madison Bumgarner and the Giants battle Dan Straily and the Marlins tonight. Bumgarner is back in his usual groove. After giving up seven runs in 13.1 innings over his first two starts back with the ballclub, Bumgarner has allowed four runs over his last 26 innings of work. He’s struck out 21 over his last 21 innings against just four walks. He’s back. When he’s going good, he’s one of the best in baseball. I’m not looking to go against that. I don’t care where he’s pitching or who he’s facing. I’m not going against Bumgarner when he’s in a groove and he is in one right now as he tries to finish out the season strong to make amends for his dirt bike accident.

I’ve talked a lot about Dan Straily this season. Straily’s stat lines are confounding in nature, especially if you go month by month. Even considering sample size bias, there’s so much about Straily that stands out in one way or another. His declining strikeout rate month by month. His batted ball distribution changes. The fact that he almost entirely eliminated walks for a full month. By this point, I just don’t know what to do with him. He’s got a 3.74 ERA with a 4.10 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP, but extreme fly ball guys never get love from the advanced metrics. Straily has done a better job limiting home runs and walks, so his 4.10 FIP is 0.78 runs lower than last season’s performance.

One thing I can say is that the Giants offense is terrible. If you wanted to roll with the under here, despite the low line, I cannot blame you for that. There’s a lot to like about the way Bumgarner is pitching right now and a lot to dislike about the Giants offense.

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (-115); Total: 9

Ivan Nova and Brandon Woodruff are the slated starters for this tilt in Beerland. The Regression Truck hit Ivan Nova and has backed up and run him over again a few times of late. Nova suddenly has a 3.87 ERA with a 4.33 FIP and a 4.06 xFIP. Through his first 14 starts, Nova had a 2.91 ERA with a .245/.267/.387 slash against in 96 innings of work. Over his last nine starts, Nova has a 5.60 ERA with a .327/.370/.581 slash against in 53 innings of work.

Since the All-Star Break, Nova has allowed a .355/.392/.628 slash in 28.1 innings of work across five starts with a .409 BABIP against. It’s almost like that profile doesn’t work with no strikeouts and a fair amount of exit velocity against. Nova has seen a pretty dramatic reversal of fortunes. The Brewers offense has been hit or miss for a long time now, so you’re basically playing a guessing game as to whether or not they hit that day. I don’t like to play that game. My entire goal in handicapping across all sports, but especially baseball, is to eliminate as much variance as possible. The Brewers make that really hard.

The move on this game is related to Brandon Woodruff’s signs of regression. Woodruff has a 1.50 ERA in his first two starts with a 4.38 FIP and a 5.52 xFIP. Consider that he had a 4.46/4.42/4.37 slash in Triple-A and you’re not going to see many believers. In Woodruff’s defense, he had a 63.9 percent LOB% at Triple-A. Also, for those that don’t know, Milwaukee’s Triple-A team is in Colorado Springs, so it’s pretty hard to carry good pitching numbers.

I want to back Milwaukee here because Woodruff has a good swinging strike rate that hasn’t shown up in his strikeout totals just yet and because the Regression Truck is revving its engine for Nova again. Unfortunately, with Milwaukee’s offensive inconsistencies, I’m not all that interested in guessing.

Kansas City (-120) at Oakland; Total: 9

The Royals and A’s fire things up again on Tuesday night. Jake Junis shut down the A’s yesterday and the Royals coasted to victory. They’ll hope that Jason Hammel can do the same tonight. Chris Smith will take the mound for the Athletics, who are one of the few teams not in the AL Wild Card hunt.

Hammel heads into this start with a 4.68 ERA, a 4.11 FIP, and a 4.98 xFIP. Surprisingly, he hasn’t gotten as much help as some from the Royals defense, with a .302 BABIP against and a 70.1 percent LOB%. Since July 7, however, Hammel has pitched pretty well. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start and has a 3.86 ERA with a 3.28 FIP and a 4.38 xFIP. He only has 33 strikeouts in 42 innings, but has only issued nine walks. The biggest thing for me going into this start is that Hammel has a 6.3 HR/FB% in those seven starts with just three home runs allowed. The A’s don’t manufacture a whole lot of innings, so this could be a really difficult matchup for them.

Chris Smith is 36 years old. He’s hung around the big leagues for a long time, minus a gap from 2011-14. He’s made the first five starts of his MLB career this season. He has a 5.29 ERA with a 6.52 FIP and a 5.64 xFIP in five starts and one relief appearance. He’s basically just out there eating innings for the A’s. That’s pretty much his only purpose. He’s had some command issues and doesn’t miss a whole of bats.

The Royals are the only way to look here. The A’s are going to lose a lot of games between now and the end of the season. This price is too light.

Cards, Sox clash in Boston
By: StatFox.com

The Cardinals will be hoping to get right back in the win column with a win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park on Tuesday.

St. Louis had won eight straight games before dropping Sunday’s meeting with Atlanta. The Braves won that won 6-3, but the Cardinals should still be feeling very good about the way they are playing. The Cardinals are just 1.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central right now, and a division victory is really their only chance of making it to the playoffs. They know how important this series is, as the Cubs have won two straight and are also feeling pretty good about themselves. As for the Red Sox, this team is also rolling right now. They are also coming off of a loss, but that shouldn’t rattle them too much. They are running away with the AL East and are hoping to keep it up with a win in this series. The starters in this Tuesday night matchup are set to be RHP Mike Leake (7-10, 3.48 ERA, 95 K) for St. Louis and RHP Rick Porcello (6-14, 4.63 ERA, 139 K) for Boston. It wouldn’t be surprising if there were a lot of runs scored here. St. Louis is 10-0 OVER versus AL teams with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse this season. The Cardinals are also, however, a lousy 10-20 against the money line versus teams that have a bullpen with a WHIP of 1.250 or better this season.

The Cardinals are hoping to get back on track with a win on Tuesday, but Mike Leake is going to need to pitch well here. Leake was lousy in his last trip to the mound, as he allowed four earned runs on 11 hits in 5.0 innings of work against the Royals on Aug. 9. If he lets up double digits in hits again in this one then it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals finding a way to win here. Then again, St. Louis did win that game he started against Kansas City. If the offense has it going then it really won’t matter how he does. The Cardinals are facing a very hittable Porcello right now, and they have some guys that will definitely be hoping to make him pay for any mistakes here. One player to keep an eye on in this one is 1B Matt Carpenter (.250 BA, 15 HR, 56 RBI). Carpenter has struggled a bit over the past five games, as he is 4-for-20 in those contests. He could, however, get back on track here, as his lefty swing is a good match for a starter like Porcello. St. Louis also has plenty of other guys that will be able to produce in this one.

The Red Sox have been waiting for Rick Porcello to turn things around all season, but the 2016 AL Cy Young winner just has not found any type of consistency. He was solid in his last start, allowing just two earned runs against the Rays on Aug. 9. He did, however, allowed five earned runs in his previous start. At this point, Boston would be happy if he gave them a quality start in every trip to the mound. That is, however, easier said than done. On offense, the Sox have had no trouble putting runs on the board lately. One guy that has really had it going is OF Andrew Benintendi (.278 BA, 17 HR, 67 RBI). Benintendi is on an eight-game hitting streak coming into this one, and he has now gotten his average up from .268 to .278 over the past 10 games. He has racked up 13 RBI in that span, and the Sox are hoping that he can have a big series against St. Louis here.

Tuesday's MLB Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Chicago White Sox vs. L.A. Dodgers

Odds: Chicago (+309), L.A (-355); Total 8.5

It continues to be business as usual for the L.A. Dodgers with four wins in their last five games and a 8-2 SU record in their last 10. Nobody can seemingly find any consistent success against L.A and while it is baseball and the Dodgers do slip up here and there, the fact that they've only lost two in a row one time since June 7th is astonishing.

Those two straight losses came to Atlanta – which is just as surprising – but tonight the Dodgers come into their interleague contest with the White Sox and are heavy, heavy favorites to make it three in a row.

L.A. enters tonight as -350ish favorites and is currently getting around 70% of the support from bettors. That's not shocking at all given the matchup, and I'm not here to promote various reasons why betting on the Dodgers ML is the way to go. Those odds suggest an implied probability of L.A. winning at 78% and that's probably about right. I'm not one that will lay heavy chalk though – even if it has a great shot at winning – because when they do lose it's more detrimental to one's bankroll then most truly want to believe.

However, if you've got no problem laying the steep price assuming you'll win the wager every eight out of 10 times, a winner is a winner, and that's the bottom line in this industry.

Now there is the flip side of that coin in that some may want to take a shot with the White Sox as a flyer bet, but I'm not sure how you can do that either. Chicago has been playing a bit better with a 4-2 SU record over their last six games (including sweeping Houston), but getting outscored 19-10 by KC in two games over the weekend suggests that losing form the White Sox have gotten all too familiar with this season is back in play.

Throw in a series with the league's best team and taking those shots on big underdogs vs the Dodgers might be better saved for another day. Instead, it's this total I'm looking to attack, and given the recent form of both teams and the strong likelihood of an easy win by L.A., I don't see how this game stays below this total of 8.5.

White Sox pitching has had a rough go of it all year long, and although tonight's starter Miguel Gonzalez had a great start in his last outing (8 IP, in 7-1 win), expecting a guy with a 4.85 ERA on the year to have back-to-back quality starts is a lot to ask in this matchup. Even with that quality outing in his last start, Gonzalez still sports a 6.32 ERA over his last three starts overall, and the 5 runs allowed/game he's given up in that span is right on par with the 4.9/game he's allowed on the year.

Chicago is also on a 7-1 O/U run with Gonzalez on the hill when he's coming off a quality start in his last outing. This Dodgers lineup – who have scored 6+ runs in seven of their last 10 games – should welcome Gonzalez back down to earth tonight by mashing him all over the yard.

Getting 5+ runs from L.A. tonight will be nice (and highly likely), but for this 'over' bet to cash we will dneed some help from the White Sox bats. They are up against lefty Alex Wood who's been dominant all year for L.A., but his numbers have started to come back down to earth of late too.

Wood has allowed 21 hits in 19 IP over his last three starts, and the 3.3 runs allowed/game over that span has helped the O/U mark in those games go 2-1. Wood's starts on the hole this year for L.A. have a 10-8 O/U mark, and it's typically been the matchups against losing squads that end up on the high side of the total (obviously L.A.'s own offense has much to do with that too).

But it's Chicago's ability to hit lefties that has me believing the White Sox will do enough on their end to get this game to 9+ runs. Chicago is 5th in all of baseball in team batting average vs southpaws (.278), and the 150 runs they've scored vs lefties is good for the 6th best total in the majors.

Even getting to Wood for a couple runs tonight would go a long way here, and with the White Sox scoring 6+ runs themselves in four of their last six overall and sporting a 8-3-1 O/U run after a day off, expect this mismatched game to see have plenty of scoring.

Best Bet: Over 8.5

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (-180, 8.5)

Maybe the Cubs will deploy five outfielders and two catchers to slow down the Reds’ Joey Votto when the two National League Central rivals continue their four-game set Tuesday night in Chicago.

Unfortunately for the Reds, Votto doesn’t pitch for Cincinnati, who fell 15-5 in the opener of their series with the Cubs. The Reds will look to bounce back in Game 2 when they send rookie Luis Castillo to the mound to take on the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks.

The right-handed Castillo, has been a lone bright spot for a Reds rotation that ranks dead last in the major leagues in starter ERA. Castillo has pitched to a 3.73 ERA and a 1.227 WHIP in 10 starts since joining the Reds’ rotation. If Castillo can’t go deep in this ball game, he hands the ball over to a bullpen that ranks 19th in the league in ERA.

Either way Castillo and the Reds will have their hands full with a Cubs’ lineup that is averaging 6.0 runs per game since the start of August. For the season, they rank ninth in runs per game, seventh in OPS and ninth in home runs.

Chicago counter with Hendricks who has had a solid, if unspectacular, year for Chicago, going 4-4 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.246 WHIP. Hendricks faces a Reds offense (led by Votto) which has plated 6.8 runs per game in their last nine games, resulting in the Over going 9-0 in those games. Like we said earlier, unfortunately, they have also allowed 7.4 runs per game in that stretch.

Want a few more tidbits? The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago with an average of 14.2 total runs scored per game in those games and the Over is 6-0 in Hendricks' last 6 starts vs. Reds.

Pick: Over 8.5

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies (-140, 11.5)

After last night's very emotional win by the Rockies in the return of Chad Bettis, they look to parlay that into another win tonight with their top starting pitcher of 2017 on the hill.

Lefty Kyle Freeland will be activated off the disabled list for tonight's start against the visiting Atlanta Braves. Freeland was removed from his start on August 4 after only 11 pitches with a groin injury, which means he hasn't had any stress on his arm since the previous start on July 30. He should be as fresh as a daisy tonight.

Hitting the DL with a non-arm injury was actually a good thing for Freeland as the Rockies were mixing in bullpen duties in an effort to limit his innings - two weeks off should take care of any innings concerns.

The Rockies have won Freeland's last four starts and in those outings he has a very tidy 2.34 ERA and a WHIP of 1.146. He has also been better pitching at Coors Field this season with an ERA of only 3.19 (4.22 on the road) and an opponent's on base percentage of only .313 at home.

After last night's loss, the Braves have now lost their last 11 games in Denver and eight of their last nine road games overall. They will send Sean Newcomb to the mound Tuesday night and they have lost the rookie left-hander's last seven starts and nine of his 11 career outings.

Newcomb has never started at Coors Field in his brief career, and that can prove to be a daunting task for a first-timer.

Pick: Rockies -140

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 114-104-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (8-7, 3.97 ERA, $-319)

2017 hasn't been the greatest season for Justin Verlander, but over his last three starts the veteran right-hander has been at the top of his game.

He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.86, a WHIP of 0.86, and an opponent's on base percentage of only .232. He also has 22 strikeout over 21 innings of work in those last three stellar outings.

Verlander and the Tigers are -125 favorites this evening in Arlington against A.J. Griffin and the Rangers.

Slumping: Dan Straily, Miami Marlins (7-8, 3.74 ERA, $-267)

It's an unusually tough day to find a scheduled starting pitcher who has truly sucked in recent weeks. There are a bunch of mediocre starters, but no one who has been dumpster-fire terrible.

Dan Straily wins the prize simply based on the fact that the Marlins have lost his last six starts - and in the end team wins and losses are the most important stat for bettors. Straily has only allowed two earned runs in each of his last three outings, however a bad bullpen and lack of offensive support have been troublesome.

Straily and the Marlins are slight home dogs at -105 against MadBum and the Giants.

Tuesday's Top Trends

* The Boston Red Sox are 8-0 in Rick Porcello's last eight interleague starts. -135 today vs Cardinals.
* The Detroit Tigers are 4-12 in their last 16 meetings with the Texas Rangers. -125 today @ Rangers.
* Over is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings in San Diego between the Phillies and Padres. PHI/SD Total: 8.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 48-9 in their last 57 overall. -350 today vs White Sox.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is a chance of late afternoon thunderstorms in The Bronx where the Yankees will entertain the Mets. The storms may stick around into the evening but should clear out for game time.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms in Denver late tonight where the Rockies are taking on the Braves. This system should only impact the game if it goes long...which can sometimes happen at Coors Field.

There will be a 10-12 mile per hour hitter's wind blowing out to left field at Fenway Park in Boston where the Cardinals will be in town to take on the Red Sox. The total is set at 10.

And finally, in Arlington, Texas there will be a 10-12 mile per hour pitcher's wind blowing straight in from center field for tonight's game between the Tigers and Rangers. The total is set at 10.

Ump Of The Day

Chris Guccione will be calling balls and strikes in Phoenix for this afternoon's game between the Astros and Diamondbacks.

There is a very interesting trend involving Guccione where the Astros are 5-0 in their last five games with him behind the plate and the Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last five games with Guccione wearing the pads.

We'll see if this trend continues today. The Astros are slight road favorites at -115.