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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, August 14th, 2017

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Free Picks for Monday, August 14th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 9:12 am
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DAVE COKIN

GIANTS AT MARLINS
PLAY: GIANTS +122

This is obviously not an ideal scheduling spot for the Giants. They had to play two games on Sunday at Washington due to the Friday postponement, and the nightcap ended up going eleven innings.

Nevertheless, I’ve learned to ignore situational or scheduling aspects where this system is concerned. As mentioned many times previously, this is a small chase system where the rule of thumb is basically bet it and forget it. The team looking to avenge a sweep in the prior meeting almost always gets at least one in the win column is the return series.

The Giants lost all three games of the last series they played against the Marlins. That was in early July. Not that the Giants have improved to any extent since that time, and I’m definitely aware of their pathetic road record. But I’m going to trust the angle here and will take the plus price with the San Francisco side.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 9:13 am
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Cappers Club

Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Indians -105

This play just missed out on our premium card. The Indians and the Red Sox start a huge series on Monday night, and with the Indians at a very good price they have good value.

On the mound for the Indians is Trevor Bauer who has pitched really well coming into this game. In each of his last three starts he has gone seven innings and only given up one run.

It's not like he was going against bad offenses either, he faced off against the Yankees, Rockies and the Angels.

On the mound for the Red Sox is Doug Fister who hasn't been good most of the season. He comes into this game with a 2-5 record and an ERA of 5.95. He gives up a lot of hits most games and the Indians will make him pay.

I think they will have no issue running up the score in this one.

Some trends to note. Indians are 5-1 in Bauers last 6 starts vs. American League East. Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 Monday games.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 9:13 am
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Art Aronson

Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 10

Two pitchers who have seen better days collide on Monday night and all signs point to an early exit for each.

Trevor Bauer: He’s 10-8 with a 4.79 ERA. Bauer comes in off a decent performance against the Rockies on Wednesday, giving up one run off seven hits over seven innings in the the victory. Bauer has looked better of late, but we think he is poised for some regression, especially considering that he’s still a horrible 3-5 with a ballooned 6.69 ERA on the road this season.

Rick Porcello: He’s 6-14 with a 4.63 ERA. Porcello most recently gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a victory over Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Porcello has also strung together a couple of decent performances, but note that he’s still a deplorable 4-8 with a 5.24 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

The bottom line: This matchup would seemingly favor the big bats in these high-profile line-ups.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 9:14 am
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Marc Lawrence

Braves vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -148

Edges - Rockies: Bettis 4-1 career team starts versus Atlanta, including 2-0 at home; and 6-1 last seven team starts during August, including 3-0 at home… Braves: Teheran 0-2 last two team starts in this park… With the Rockies 14-2 the last 16 games in this series, including 10-0 the last 10 games here, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 9:14 am
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Tony Karpinski

Giants vs. Marlins
Play: Giants +123

Ty Blach has thrown at least seven frames in each of his last five outings. He has won both of his starts in August, including last Tuesday’s 6-3 win over the Cubs in which the lefty allowed seven hits and two runs across seven innings.
San Fran starter Ty Blach has allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his past three starts.

He is a very good lefty and I believe he'll keep the Marlins and Stanton in check here on Monday night.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 9:15 am
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Jim Feist

Phillies at Padres
Pick: Under

A pair of weak offensive teams meet in a big park. Philadelphia is #29 in baseball in runs scored, 14-6-3 under the total against a team with a losing record. Starter Jerad Eickhoff has 101 Ks in 111 innings , off a 3-2 win at Atlanta. The under is 16-6-3 in Eickhoff's last 25 starts with 4 days of rest. San Diego is last in the league in runs scored, on a 5-0 run under at home. And the Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 9:16 am
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Scott Rickenbach

Mets vs. Yankees
Play: Mets +168

While one could certainly argue that the Mets Rafael Montero has been nothing special on the mound the same can be said about the Yankees Luis Cessa. That said, there is substantial line value here because it is certainly hard to justify the Yanks being such a big favorite in this spot. The Yankees have lost 8 of their last 12 games and they've averaged just 7 hits per game in their last 4 games. Conversely, the Mets have won 4 of their last 6 games and they've tallied at least a dozen hits in 3 of their last 4 games. While the Mets have momentum by taking 3 of 4 from a division rival this weekend (albeit the deplorable Phillies), the Yankees come in defeated after losing 2 of 3 to the Red Sox including a disappointing tight low-scoring loss last night. The Mets are 32-14 in Monday games the past 3 seasons combined! The Yankees have lost 9 of 14 since a late July winning streak. The value is clearly with the road dog here.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 11:48 am
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Rocketman

Houston at Arizona
Play: Arizona -143

Houston is 72-45 SU overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 65-52 SU overall record on the season. Collin McHugh is 0-1 with a 5.32 ERA overall this year, 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA on the road this season and 0-1 with a 4.67 ERA his last 3 starts. Zack Greinkie is 14-5 with a 3.14 ERA overall this year and 10-1 with a 2.52 ERA at home this season. Greinke is 5-2 with a 2.66 ERA in his 8 career starts vs Houston. Houston is scoring only 3.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Arizona is scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this year and 5.8 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Arizona is allowing only 3.9 runs per game at night this year and 3.3 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Houston is 3-9 so far in August this year. Arizona is 9-1 this year in inter-league play. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 11:49 am
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Jimmy Boyd

Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Indians -105

I like the value here with Cleveland in Monday's series opener against the Red Sox. Boston just won 2 of 3 at home over the Yankees, with the most recent coming on Sunday Night baseball, where they tied it in the 9th and won it in the 10th. That was a huge series, not only for the rivalry between those two teams, but the race for the AL East title. I think it's going to be a tough spot here for the Red Sox to get up for a red-hot Cleveland team.

The Indians took the final 3 games of their 4-game set at Tampa Bay, so they are coming in with a ton of confidence. The big key here is the pitching matchup, which I give a big edge to Cleveland. The Indians send out Trevor Bauer, who has a sensational 1.23 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Red Sox counter with Doug Fister, who has a 5.73 ERA in 6 starts overall in 2017 and a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 outings.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 11:49 am
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Larry Ness

Detroit vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -111

The Tigers and Rangers were both sellers at the trade deadline but despite the teams sitting a combined 15 games under 500 (Texas is 56-60 and Detroit 53-64), an American League wild-card berth is still a possibility. That said, the Tigers, who are seven games back of the final spot with eight teams ahead of them, are surely a longer shot than the Rangers, who are a more manageable 3 1/2 games back.

The Rangers look for a fourth win in five games Monday when they continue a 10-game homestand with the first of three against the Tigers, who have lost seven of nine. Michael Fulmer (10-9, 3.59 ERA) will get the nod for Detroit and Martin Perez (6-10, 5.18 ERA) for Texas. The 2016 AL rookie of the year has spent two weeks on the disabled list with ulnar neuritis. His two most recent road outings were disasters, allowing 15 runs (11 earned) on 14 hits across 8 2/3 innings for an 11.42 ERA. Fulmer has made just one career starst against Texas, striking out nine in a four-hit shutout at Texas exactly one year ago.

Perez is off his finest performance of the season this past Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits across eight innings of a 5-1 win at the NY Mets. The outing marked the first time he has given up fewer than five hits in any of his 22 starts this season. Perez permitted two runs in six innings and did not factor in the decision May 8, 2016 against Detroit and enters 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in four appearances (three starts / teams are 1-2) versus the Tigers.

Fulmer's last two road starts have been a nightmare but note that prior to that, he had allowed only 14 ERs over his first 56 away innings in 2017 (2.25 ERA). The Rangers are 8-14 (minus-$655) in all of Perez's starts this season, including going 5-8 i

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 11:51 am
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Dave Cokin

Braves vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -145

Chad Bettis makes his return from the battle with cancer, and you can be sure Coors will be rocking for this one. There was a similar situation earlier this season when Jameson Taillon made a similar return for the Pirates, and that worked out really well. The crowd was lit, and Taillon's teammates were clearly playing inspired ball that night. I fully expect the same thing here. Bettis has been just okay in his rehab efforts, but I want to ride him here. It can't hurt that the Braves are sending Julio Teheran, who has been in poor form, and their bullpen might be a bit worn as well after a rugged weekend series at St. Louis. A little pricey but I see it as justified and I'm playing the Rockies.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 11:52 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Giants at Marlins
Play: Marlins

This game fits a Solid system that plays the on home favorites off a home dog win like Miami that had 0 errors and are taking on a team like SF that lost and scored 2 or less as a road dog at +140 or higher. These teams win over 80% long term. SF has Blach going and he has a 4.84 road Era and they follow him with a road bullpen Era over 5. SF played a double header in Washington and lost in extras on a Grand slam. SF is 8-20 in game one of a series and 16-33 vs teams under .500. Miami has won 14 of 22 vs losing teams and 9 of 10 as a home favorite off a home win. They are 10-3 at home vs a team who wins less than 405 of their road games. The Marlines are 8-3 vs N.L. West teams. Miami has the better team and bullpen. Look for Miami to take the opener.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 12:27 pm
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Bruce Marshall

Brewers AT Twins
Pick: Twins

Buoyed by a nice rally last night and still very much in the AL wild card picture, the Twins look to continue some of that momentum tonight at the expense of the visiting Brewers, whose offense has slowed over thew past four games, scoring just 9 runs. Ex-Twin Matt Garza is on the mound for the Brew Crew and needs more support than the Milw

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 5:56 pm
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Wunderdog

Cleveland vs. Boston
Pick: Cleveland -104

Cleveland has a winning road record and is 12-3 against a right-handed starter. Trevor Bauer is a 10-game winner and in a groove, allowing one run in each of his last three starts (22 innings, three walks, and 22 Ks). Cleveland is 75-43 against AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs per game. Boston is home from playing a showdown series against the Yankees in the Bronx and had the late ESPN game Sunday night, going 10 innings. They played a four-game set with New York a month ago, then lost the first game after that to Toronto, 4-3, as a favorite. The Red Sox go with aging Doug Fister (5.03 ERA), who has allowed 42 hits and 19 walks in 39 innings, and he is 7-21 when facing the AL Central.

 
Posted : August 14, 2017 5:57 pm
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