MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, May 20th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Brewers @ Cubs
Anderson is 0-0, 6.10 in his last four starts, all of which went over the total.
Arrieta is 1-3, 9.45 in his last four starts; six of his last seven starts went over.
Brewers won nine of their last 12 games- six of their last eight games went over the total. Cubs are 7-3 in last ten home games; over is 13-1 in last 14 games at Wrigley Field.
Phillies @ Pirates
Velasquez is 1-0, 3.94 in three road starts (over 6-1).
Nova is 0-1, 4.42 in his last three starts (under is 4-1-1 in his last six starts).
Phillies lost 12 of last 15 games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road games. Pittsburgh won four of last six games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.
Nationals @ Braves
Scherzer is 1-0, 2.57 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five outings.
Colon is 1-3, 8.77 in his last five starts- over is 6-1 in his last seven.
Washington lost six of its last seven road games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Atlanta won six of last eight games; over is 7-0-2 in their last nine home games.
Rockies @ Reds
Senzatela is 6-1, 3.49 in eight starts this year; his last five starts went over.
Adleman is 2-2, 6.56 in five starts this year (over 3-2).
Colorado won seven of last ten road games; under is 10-5 in their last 15 games. Reds lost seven games in row; over is 5-0 in their last five games.
Giants @ Cardinals
Samardzija is 1-1, 4.08 in his last four starts- under is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
Martinez is 3-0, 3.15 in his last three starts; four of his last five starts went over.
Giants won six of last seven games; four of their last five games went over. St Louis is 3-7 in its last ten home games; over is 11-3 in their last 14 home games.
Diamondbacks @ Padres
Ray is 0-3, 5.82 in his last four starts; under is 3-0 in his road starts.
Perdomo is 0-1, 4.72 in six starts this season (over 3-3).
Arizona won its last four games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road games. San Diego lost nine of last 11 games. Over is 11-4 in their last 15 home games.
Marlins @ Dodgers
Straily is 0-3, 2.60 in his last six starts (over 4-3-1).
Urias is 0-1, 3.43 in four starts this year (under 2-1-1).
Miami lost ten of its last 11 games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Dodgers won their last three games; over is 6-2-2 in their last ten home games.
American League
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Bolsinger is 0-2, 6.97 in two starts this year (over 1-1).
Gausman is 1-3, 9.24 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over.
Blue Jays lost four of last five games; over is 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Baltimore lost six of its last eight games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Bronx @ Tampa Bay
Tanaka is 2-1, 9.60 in his last three starts (over 6-2). New York scored 28 runs in those three games.
Andriese is 2-0, 2.60 in his last three starts (over 4-4).
New York won eight of last 11 road games; over is 13-6 in their last 19 games. Tampa Bay won five of last seven games; over is 9-1-1 in Rays’ last 11 games.
Rangers @ Tigers
Griffin is 4-0, 2.61 in his last five starts (over 5-1).
Verlander is 2-1, 3.46 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Rangers won their last ten games; four of last six Ranger games went over total. Detroit won three of last four games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Royals @ Twins
Young is 0-0, 12.15 in two starts this season (over 2-0).
Mejia is 0-1, 6.52 in three starts this season (under 2-0-1).
Kansas City won seven of its last 11 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Minnesota lost three of last five home games; over is 7-4 in last 11 games at Target Field.
Indians @ Astros
Clevinger is 1-1, 2.70 in two starts (10 IP, under 2-0).
Fiers is 1-0, 6.48 in his last three starts (over 4-2 in his last six starts).
Indians lost five of last eight games; four of last five Cleveland games went over total. Houston won nine of last 11 games; over is 4-2 in Astros’ last six home games.
White Sox @ Mariners
Pelfrey is 0-4, 6.47 in five starts this year (under 3-2).
Gallardo is 1-0, 3.63 in his last three starts (over 4-4).
White Sox lost ten of their last 13 games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Seattle won three of its last five games; over is 11-6-1 in their last 18 games.
Red Sox @ A’s
Pomeranz is 2-3, 5.32 in his last five starts; three of his last four starts went over.
Manaea is 1-3, 6.14 in six starts this season (over 4-2).
Red Sox are 4-6 in their last ten games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Oakland won three of last four games; over is 14-6 in their last 20 games.
Interleague
Angels @ Mets
Meyer is 2-0, 3.09 in his last two starts (over 3-1).
Wheeler is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts (over 5-1-1).
Angels won four of their last five games; under is 14-5 in their last 19 road games. Mets lost seven of their last eight games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Wsh-Atl: Scherzer 5-3; Colon 4-4
Mil-Chi: Anderson 4-4; Arrieta 4-4
Phil-Pitt: Velasquez 2-5; Nova 4-4
Col-Cin: Senzatela 7-1; Adleman 2-3
SF-StL: Samardzija 3-5; Martinez 5-3
Az-SD: Ray 4-4; Perdomo 2-4
Mia-LA: Straily 3-5; Urias 2-2
American League
NY-TB: Tanaka 5-3; Andriese 4-4
Clev-Hst: Clevinger 1-1; Fiers 4-3
KC-Min: Young 2-0; Mejia 0-3
Bos-A’s: Pomeranz 4-3; Manaea 1-5
Tor-Balt: Bolsinger 0-2; Gausman 4-5
Tex-Det: Griffin 6-0; Verlander 4-4
Chi-Sea: Pelfrey 1-4; Gallardo 3-5
Interleague
LAA-NYM: Meyer 2-2; Wheeler 3-4
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Wsh-Atl: Scherzer 2-8; Colon 3-8
Mil-Chi: Anderson 1-8; Arrieta 3-8
Phil-Pitt: Velasquez 3-7; Nova 1-8
Col-Cin: Senzatela 4-8; Adleman 2-5
SF-StL: Samardzija 3-8; Martinez 2-8
Az-SD: Ray 4-8; Perdomo 3-6
Mia-LA: Straily 0-8; Urias 1-4
American League
NY-TB: Tanaka 4-8; Andriese 5-8
Clev-Hst: Clevinger 0-2; Fiers 5-7
KC-Min: Young 1-2; Mejia 1-3
Bos-A’s: Pomeranz 4-7; Manaea 1-6
Tor-Balt: Bolsinger 1-2; Gausman 2-9
Tex-Det: Griffin 1-6; Verlander 4-8
Chi-Sea: Pelfrey 2-5; Gallardo 4-8
Interleague
LAA-NYM: Meyer 3-4; Wheeler 3-7
Umpires
National League
Wsh-Atl: Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Fairchild games.
Mil-Chi: Under is 5-2 in Hoye games this season.
Phil-Pitt: Four of last five Culbreth games went over; underdogs won five of his last six games.
Col-Cin: Over is 5-1-2 in Wolf games this season.
SF-StL: Home team won six of seven Carapazza games.
Az-SD: Three of last four HGibson games stayed under.
Mia-LA: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Demuth games.
American League
NY-TB: Over is 6-2 in Barry games this season.
Clev-Hst: Under is 5-2 in LBarrett games this season.
KC-Min: Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Miller games.
Bos-A’s: Four of six Whitson games went over the total.
Tor-Balt: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Woodring games.
Tex-Det: Four of last six Everitt games went over.
Chi-Sea: Under is 3-1-1 in last five Wegner games.
Interleague
LAA-NYM: Six of last eight Cederstrom games went over.
Armadillosports.com
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Cleveland (20-19) at Houston (29-12)
Series Price: Astros -135, Indians +115
Scheduled Rotation: Bauer (3-4) vs. Morton (5-2), Clevinger (1-1) vs. Fiers (1-1), Salazar (2-4) vs. Musgrove (3-3)
The Astros are running away with the American League West with a 7.5 game lead over Texas, the team that won the division last season. They have baseball's best record, and more importantly they have been the most profitable team at the bet window with +13.6 units. The good news for the Indians this weekend is that they'll miss Dallas Keuchel who leads the AL in wins (7) and ERA (1.84). Because of Keuchel missing the series, Station Casinos has posted the Astros as a short -135 favorite to win the series.
The Indians come in with with the best bullpen in baseball with a 1.96 ERA and converting all 11 of its save opportunities. Colorado has the second-best save percentage (90.48) converting 19 of 21. It's basically a lockdown with the Indians when the starter comes out which makes it hard to believe their record isn't better than it is. Only 25 runs allowed in 116.2 innings with opponents hitting .203 is incredible. The main reason why the Indians don't have a better record is because the starting rotation, which was supposed to be one of the best in baseball. They have a 4.95 ERA which ranks 28th.
One trend to take note of between these two clubs is going 21-6-2 to the 'under' in the last 29 meetings. The best value of the weekend is probably taking the Indians and 'under' on Sunday with Danny Salazar on the hill.
Toronto (18-24) at Baltimore (23-16)
Series Price: Orioles -155, Blue Jays +135
Scheduled Rotation: Sanchez (0-1) vs Tillman (1-0), Bolsinger (0-2) vs. Gausman (2-3), Estrada (2-2) vs. Miley (1-1)
After winning seven of eight games the Blue Jays found themselves in trouble during the week losing three of four to the Braves. The good news for them is that their bats are hot. They've been crushing the ball and have gone 'over' in their last four games. The Orioles come off an awful 1-6 road trip, but home is where their heart is. They've gone 16-5 in their last 21 home games. Toronto has gone 9-2 to the 'over' in their last 11 road games. However, 12 of the past 14 meetings between these two cubs have stayed 'under' the number.
Colorado (26-16) at Cincinnati (19-21)
Series Price: Reds -120, Rockies +100
Scheduled Rotation: Anderson (2-4) vs Bonilla (0-1), Senzatela (6-1) vs. Adleman (2-2), Freeland (4-2) vs. Arroyo (3-3)
And the Reds have finally come back to reality. Pittsburgh is still in last place of the NL Central, but the Reds should be there soon and it might happen this weekend. But somehow they're the favorite to win the series despite playing the NL West-leading Rockies and riding a six-game losing streak. The best value of the weekend should be Saturday with Antonio Senzatela who has been the third most profitable pitcher in baseball at +6.8 units. The Rockies have won seven of his eight starts. The Rockies have stayed 'under' in 10 of their last 14 games, but Senatela has gone 'over' in his last five starts after staying 'under' in his first three.
Texas (22-20) at Detroit (20-19)
Series Price: Tigers -150, Rangers +130
Scheduled Rotation: Martinez (0-2) vs. Norris (2-2), Griffin (4-0) vs. Verlander (3-3), Darvish (4-2) vs. Boyd (2-3)
The hard charging Rangers have won nine straight coming into this series -- all as favorites, but come into this series as an underdog which I believe offers great value. Yu Darvish comes off a fantastic outing and should win on Sunday and A.J. Griffin is having a career year so far and should be able compete with Justin Verlander on Saturday. Most of all, this Rangers squad is on fire. Why stop betting them to win? Also, Texas has won nine of the past 12 meetings. And something to also think of this weekend if that Detroit is 2-7 in their last nine games as a favorite.
NY Yankees (24-14) at Tampa Bay (21-22)
Series Price: Yankees -125, Rays +105
Scheduled Rotation: Severino (2-2) vs. Ramirez (2-0), Tanaka (5-2) vs. Andriese (3-1), Sabathia (3-2) vs. Archer (3-2)
The first-place Yankees are up +8.4 units of profit for bettors and lead baseball with a +1.6 average margin of victory (5.8 to 4.2). They've been a great 'over' team at 23-15 which is a winner for bettors 60.5 percent of the time. Early on the Yankees were looked at as a team that was great at home but struggled on the road, but now they're the road warriors going 8-2 in their last 10 on the road. Something to take note of in this series is that the Rays have been cashing in as underdogs going 6-2 in their last eight.
Kansas City (17-23) at Minnesota (20-17)
Series Price: Twins -130, Royals +110
Scheduled Rotation: Karns (2-2) vs. Santiago (4-2), Kennedy (0-3) vs. Wilk (0-1), Hammel (1-5) vs. Hughes (4-2)
The Royals are 3-9 in their last 12 road games and 3-10 in their last 13 as a favorite, so be careful this weekend even though they're hitting the ball with much more authority than the first five weeks of the season. The Twins have gone 8-3-1 to the 'over' in their last 12 home games, but the road has been where they've had more success. They're 11-5 on the road and only 9-12 at home. However, they're in first-place of the ultra-competitive AL Central. It's only a one-game lead over the Tigers and Indians, but it's still impressive considering they were supposed to finish last in the division. Last is where the Royals are and they have the worst margin of victory in the AL at -42 runs.