MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, May 19th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
National League
Brewers @ Cubs
30-year old Espino is making his first MLB start after 1,304 IP in the minors (292 games, 192 starts). He is 4-0, 2.54 in seven AAA starts this season.
Butler blanked St Louis for six innings (94 PT) in his first ’17 start.
Brewers won nine of their last eleven games- five of their last seven games went over the total. Milwaukee is 4-2 in road series openers. Cubs are 6-3 in last nine home games; over is 12-1 in last 13 games at Wrigley Field. Chicago is 2-4 in home series openers.
Phillies @ Pirates
Hellickson is 0-1, 7.90 in his last three starts (under 6-2).
Williams is 1-1, 10.13 in two starts this year (over 1-1).
Phillies lost 12 of last 14 games; they’re 3-4 in road series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten road games. Pittsburgh won four of last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games. Pirates are 3-3 in home series openers.
Nationals @ Braves
Gonzalez is 0-1, 4.58 in his last three starts (over 4-4).
Dickey is 2-2, 4.65 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over.
Washington lost five of its last six road games; over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Nationals are 5-2 in road series openers. Atlanta won five of last seven games; they’re 2-3 in home series openers. Over is 6-0-2 in their last eight home games.
Rockies @ Reds
Anderson is 1-2, 8.69 in four road starts this year (over 5-3).
Bonilla allowed three runs in eight IP (98 PT) in his first MLB start, at San Francisco.
Colorado won six of last nine road games; they’re 3-3 in road series openers. Under is 10-4 in their last 14 games. Reds lost six games in row; over is 4-0 in their last four games. Cincinnati is 3-4 in home series openers.
Giants @ Cardinals
Moore is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two starts; over is 3-0-1 in his road starts.
Wacha is 1-0, 3.28 in his last four starts; his last three starts went over.
Giants won five of last six games; they’re 2-5 in road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their road series openers. St Louis is 3-6 in its last nine home games, 3-5 in home series openers. Over is 10-3 in their last 13 home games.
Diamondbacks @ Padres
Walker is 0-2, 5.51 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
Weaver is 0-3, 11.09 in his last four starts (over is 5-1 in his last six starts).
Arizona won its last three games; they’re 3-2 in road series openers. Under is 7-1 in their last eight road games. San Diego lost eight of last ten games. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 home games. Padres are 5-2 in home openers this season.
Marlins @ Dodgers
Nicolino allowed one run in six IP (79 PT) in his first ’17 start.
Wood is 3-0, 2.05 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Miami lost nine of its last ten games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Dodgers lost three of their last five games; over is 5-2-2 in their last nine home games.
American League
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Sanchez is 0-1, 3.44 in four starts this year (under 3-1).
Tillman is 1-0, 2.89 in two starts this year (under 2-0).
Blue Jays lost three of last four games; they’re 5-2 in road series openers. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 road games. Baltimore lost six of its last seven games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Orioles are 6-0 in home series openers.
Bronx @ Tampa Bay
Severino is 1-1, 3.27 in his last four starts, last three of which went over total.
Ramirez allowed one run in five IP (66 PT) in his only ’17 start, vs Detroit.
New York won eight of last ten road games; over is 12-6 in their last 18 games- they’re 4-2 in road series openers. Tampa Bay won four of last six games but is 1-4 in last five home games, 2-5 in home series openers. Over is 8-1-1 in Rays’ last ten games.
Rangers @ Tigers
Martinez is 0-2, 7.27 in his last three starts (under 3-2).
Norris is 1-2, 6.12 in his last five starts (over 4-2-1).
Rangers won their last nine games, are 2-4 in road series openers. Four of last five Ranger games went over total. Detroit won five of last seven home games; they’re 4-2 in home series openers. Over is 10-3 in their series opener this season.
Royals @ Twins
Karns is 2-0, 2.08 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
Santiago is 3-0, 2.59 in four home starts; his last five starts all went over.
Kansas City won seven of its last ten games; they’re 2-3 in road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Minnesota lost three of last four home games; they’re 4-3 in road seres openers. Over is 7-3 in last ten games at Target Field.
Indians @ Astros
Bauer is 1-2, 7.88 in his last three starts (over 4-2-1).
Morton is 4-0, 4.44 in his last four starts; his last five starts went over.
Indians lost five of last seven games; they’re 3-4 in road series openers. Last four Cleveland games went over total. Houston won nine of last ten games; they’re 5-1 in home series openers. Over is 4-1 in Astros’ last five home games.
White Sox @ Mariners
Quintana is 2-1, 3.12 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven.
Miranda is 2-1, 2.75 in three home starts (under 5-3).
White Sox lost ten of their last twelve games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Seattle won three of its last four games; over is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games.
Red Sox @ A’s
Sale is 3-0, 3.86 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven.
Graveman is 0-1, 6.35 in his last three starts (under 4-3).
Red Sox are 5-3 in last eight road games; over is 7-1 in their last eight road games. Oakland lost six of its last nine games; over is 14-5 in their last 19 games.
Interleague
Angels @ Mets
Nolasco is 0-0, 4.67 in his last three starts (under 4-1 in his last five).
deGrom is 2-0, 5.63 in his last four starts, three of which went over.
Angels won their last four games; they’re 2-4 in road series openers. Under is 13-5 in their last 18 road games. Mets lost their last seven games, are 3-4 in home series openers. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Mil-Chi: Espino 0-0; Butler 1-0
Phil-Pitt: Hellickson 7-1; Williams 1-1
Wsh-Atl: Gonzalez 5-3; Dickey 3-4
Col-Cin: Anderson 4-4; Bonilla 0-1
SF-StL: Moore 2-6; Wacha 3-3
Az-SD: Walker 5-3; Weaver 0-8
Mia-LA: Nicolino 1-0; Wood 4-2
American League
Tor-Balt: Sanchez 2-2; Tillman 1-1
NY-TB: Severino 4-3; Ramirez 1-0
Tex-Det: Martinez 2-3; Norris 3-4
KC-Min: Karns 4-3; Santiago 4-4
Clev-Hst: Bauer 3-4; Morton 6-2
Bos-A’s: Sale 6-2; Graveman 3-4
Chi-Sea: Quintana 3-5; Miranda 5-3
Interleague
LAA-NYM: Nolasco 3-5; deGrom 4-4
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Mil-Chi: Espino 0-0; Butler 0-1
Phil-Pitt: Hellickson 3-8; Williams 1-2
Wsh-Atl: Gonzalez 5-8; Dickey 2-7
Col-Cin: Anderson 1-8; Bonilla 1-1
SF-StL: Moore 3-8; Wacha 1-6
Az-SD: Walker 3-8; Weaver 3-8 (3 of last 3)
Mia-LA: Nicolino 0-1; Wood 1-6
American League
Tor-Balt: Sanchez 0-4; Tillman 0-2
NY-TB: Severino 1-7; Ramirez 1-1
Tex-Det: Martinez 1-5; Norris 1-7
KC-Min: Karns 4-7; Santiago 1-8
Clev-Hst: Bauer 1-7; Morton 1-8
Bos-A’s: Sale 0-8; Graveman 4-7 (4 of last 4)
Chi-Sea: Quintana 2-8; Miranda 4-8
Interleague
LAA-NYM: Nolasco 3-8; deGrom 3-8
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Rangers (9-0 last nine)
Texas cleaned up on its homestand against subpar competition by winning all eight games against San Diego, Oakland, and Philadelphia. The Rangers outscored the Phillies, 22-8 during their three-game sweep in Arlington to move within 7½-games of red-hot Houston atop the AL West.
Now the Rangers have to prove their worth on the highway as they travel to Detroit to begin a weekend series at Comerica Park. Texas has slumped to a 4-11 record in its previous 15 games away from Globe Life Park, while scoring two runs or less eight times in this stretch. Nick Martinez will try to turn around Texas’ road woes, while attempting to continue its hot streak. Martinez is winless in two road starts this season, while giving up 11 runs in 11.1 innings of work.
Coldest team: Mets (0-7 last seven)
One week ago, New York sat at 17-16 and in second place of the NL East behind Washington. However, a series finale loss to San Francisco started a tailspin as the Mets were swept in a pair of road series at Milwaukee and Arizona. The Mets led in each of the past four games, but dropped the final two to the Diamondbacks by one run apiece.
New York plays its first interleague series of the season as the Angels invade Citi Field. Los Angeles is coming off a three-game home sweep of Chicago, but the Halos draw Jacob deGrom in the series opener. The Mets have won three of deGrom’s last four starts, but New York squandered a 7-1 lead in his previous outing at Milwaukee last Sunday in an 11-9 defeat.
Hottest pitcher: Charlie Morton, Astros (5-2, 3.97 ERA)
Dallas Keuchel is on his way to a second Cy Young award in three seasons, but Morton is also shining this season for Houston. Morton owns a perfect 5-0 record at Minute Maid Park this season, while the right-hander has allowed two earned runs or less in four of those victories. The veteran has also been helped out by terrific run support as the loaded Astros’ lineup has provided Morton at least eight runs in each of his last four starts. Morton faces the Indians on Friday as Houston has compiled a 5-1 record in home series openers this season.
Coldest pitcher: Jered Weaver, Padres (0-4, 6.05 ERA)
It’s hard to believe that Weaver won 20 games back in 2012 and has yet to pick up a victory in eight starts for San Diego this season. Weaver is actually coming off his best start of the season against the White Sox, allowing one earned run in six innings, but Chicago exploded for eight runs off the San Diego bullpen in the eighth inning of a 9-3 victory. The 34-year old didn’t allow a home run against the White Sox, but has given up multi-homers in six starts this season. Weaver tries to silence the Diamondbacks in the series opener, looking to avenge a 6-2 loss in late April.
Biggest OVER run: Red Sox (9-1 last 10)
Boston continues its series at Oakland on Friday as the Red Sox keep cashing OVERS, but not in convincing fashion. In the two-game series sweep of the Cardinals, the Red Sox won by scores of 6-3 on an 8 total and 5-4 on an 8½ total. In nine of 10 games during this OVER stretch, the Sox have hit scored at least four runs, while hitting the OVER in three straight Game 2’s of a road series. Ace Chris Sale began the season by finishing UNDER the total in six straight starts, but has eclipsed the OVER in his last two outings as he takes the hill on Friday.
Biggest UNDER run: Diamondbacks (12-4 on road)
Arizona is 3-2-1 to the OVER the last six games, but have been a terrific UNDER bet away from the desert. The D-backs head to San Diego to face the Padres this weekend as seven of Arizona’s past eight road contests have finished UNDER the total. In two of three meetings at Petco Park in mid-April, the D-backs scored a combined one run after putting up 11 in a blowout victory to begin the series. Taijuan Walker has hit the UNDER in three of his four road starts for Arizona, while drilling the UNDER on two high totals in his past two appearances.
Matchup to watch: Yankees vs. Rays
New York travels to Tampa Bay to play its third series this season against the Rays. The Yankees dropped two of three to open the season at Tropicana Field, but picked up revenge one week later by sweeping the Rays in the Bronx. Joe Girardi’s club has been rolling ever since as the Yankees sit atop the AL East heading into the weekend.
The Rays return home following an impressive road trip by capturing back-to-back series against the Red Sox and Indians. Tampa Bay won the final two games at Cleveland, while scoring 20 runs in the three-game set. The Rays have cashed the OVER in six straight contests, but Tampa Bay tries to snap a four-game skid in home series openers. Erasmo Ramirez tries to erase that dubious number for the Rays, making his second start for Tampa Bay after beating Detroit at home on April 20.
Luis Severino has been an impressive part of the Yankees’ rotation this season by striking out 47 batters in 42 innings of work. The right-hander picked up a no-decision in a win against the Astros last Sunday, while allowing seven hits and one earned run in his previous two road starts against the Cubs and Red Sox.
Betcha didn’t know: The Royals sit in last place of the AL Central and one of the reasons why (besides bad offense) is losing five times to the Twins this season. Kansas City makes its first trip to Target Field since getting swept at Minnesota in the opening series of the season. Nathan Karns hasn’t faced the Twins yet this season, but the Royals are 3-0 in his last three starts overall, while striking out 29 batters in this span.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-225) vs. Marlins
Biggest public underdog: White Sox (+100) at Mariners
Indians, Astros meet in Houston
By: StatFox.com
The Astros are on a four-game winning streak heading into a Friday night matchup with the Indians.
The Indians are on a two-game losing streak coming into Friday’s game, and this team really needs to get going soon. Expectations were high after reaching the World Series a year ago and bringing in some big name talent. The team has responded with inconsistent play, and that must change soon. A series victory over the Astros could, however, get them going. Houston has been the best team in baseball this season, so it would certainly send a message to the rest of the league. The starters in this game on Friday are going to be RHP Trevor Bauer (3-4, 6.92 ERA, 44 K) for the Indians and RHP Charlie Morton (5-2, 3.97 ERA, 54 K) for the Astros. These guys could not be having more different seasons, as Bauer has been absolutely miserable and Morton has looked like a stud. One trend that favors Cleveland in this game is the fact that the team is 28-8 against the money line over the past two seasons after having lost four or five of its past six games. The Astros, however, are also going to be confident, as they are 23-7 against the money line versus right-handed starters this season.
The Indians can really use a victory on Friday, but Trevor Bauer is going to need to pitch well in order for them to get one against Houston. Bauer was solid in his last trip to the mound, allowing just three earned runs in six innings in a start against the Twins on May 14. He struck out seven batters in that game and walked none. Cleveland would certainly take a start like that on Friday, as the team was able to beat Houston in Bauer’s last start against the team and he allowed four earned in six innings in that one. Offensively, the Indians can use a lot more from DH Edwin Encarnacion (.203 BA, 6 HR, 14 RBI) moving forward. Cleveland gave him a huge contract in the offseason, but he has been terrible thus far. After hitting .263 with 42 homers and 127 RBI in 2016, the slugger is on pace for just 25 homers and 58 RBI this season. That must change soon or this team isn’t going to be contending later in the year.
The Astros are currently the best team in baseball, and their pitching has been spectacular this season. Morton has been a big part of that, as the righty has allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of his eight starts this season. Morton most recently struck out 10 batters in a win over the Yankees on May 14, and he now faces a struggling Indians team in Houston. If Morton can avoid walking too many batters then it’s tough to imagine him really struggling with Cleveland. Offensively, all of the Astros are capable of stepping up for Houston on any given night. C Brian McCann (.276 BA, 6 HR, 25 RBI) and 1B Yuli Gurriel (.280 BA, 3 HR, 14 RBI) are, however, two guys that have had some success against Bauer in their careers. The two of them are a combined 9-for-23 with three homers and seven RBI against the righty, and it’d be big for Houston if they can do damage on Friday.
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Cleveland (20-19) at Houston (29-12)
Series Price: Astros -135, Indians +115
Scheduled Rotation: Bauer (3-4) vs. Morton (5-2), Clevinger (1-1) vs. Fiers (1-1), Salazar (2-4) vs. Musgrove (3-3)
The Astros are running away with the American League West with a 7.5 game lead over Texas, the team that won the division last season. They have baseball's best record, and more importantly they have been the most profitable team at the bet window with +13.6 units. The good news for the Indians this weekend is that they'll miss Dallas Keuchel who leads the AL in wins (7) and ERA (1.84). Because of Keuchel missing the series, Station Casinos has posted the Astros as a short -135 favorite to win the series.
The Indians come in with with the best bullpen in baseball with a 1.96 ERA and converting all 11 of its save opportunities. Colorado has the second-best save percentage (90.48) converting 19 of 21. It's basically a lockdown with the Indians when the starter comes out which makes it hard to believe their record isn't better than it is. Only 25 runs allowed in 116.2 innings with opponents hitting .203 is incredible. The main reason why the Indians don't have a better record is because the starting rotation, which was supposed to be one of the best in baseball. They have a 4.95 ERA which ranks 28th.
One trend to take note of between these two clubs is going 21-6-2 to the 'under' in the last 29 meetings. The best value of the weekend is probably taking the Indians and 'under' on Sunday with Danny Salazar on the hill.
Toronto (18-24) at Baltimore (23-16)
Series Price: Orioles -155, Blue Jays +135
Scheduled Rotation: Sanchez (0-1) vs Tillman (1-0), Bolsinger (0-2) vs. Gausman (2-3), Estrada (2-2) vs. Miley (1-1)
After winning seven of eight games the Blue Jays found themselves in trouble during the week losing three of four to the Braves. The good news for them is that their bats are hot. They've been crushing the ball and have gone 'over' in their last four games. The Orioles come off an awful 1-6 road trip, but home is where their heart is. They've gone 16-5 in their last 21 home games. Toronto has gone 9-2 to the 'over' in their last 11 road games. However, 12 of the past 14 meetings between these two cubs have stayed 'under' the number.
Colorado (26-16) at Cincinnati (19-21)
Series Price: Reds -120, Rockies +100
Scheduled Rotation: Anderson (2-4) vs Bonilla (0-1), Senzatela (6-1) vs. Adleman (2-2), Freeland (4-2) vs. Arroyo (3-3)
And the Reds have finally come back to reality. Pittsburgh is still in last place of the NL Central, but the Reds should be there soon and it might happen this weekend. But somehow they're the favorite to win the series despite playing the NL West-leading Rockies and riding a six-game losing streak. The best value of the weekend should be Saturday with Antonio Senzatela who has been the third most profitable pitcher in baseball at +6.8 units. The Rockies have won seven of his eight starts. The Rockies have stayed 'under' in 10 of their last 14 games, but Senatela has gone 'over' in his last five starts after staying 'under' in his first three.
Texas (22-20) at Detroit (20-19)
Series Price: Tigers -150, Rangers +130
Scheduled Rotation: Martinez (0-2) vs. Norris (2-2), Griffin (4-0) vs. Verlander (3-3), Darvish (4-2) vs. Boyd (2-3)
The hard charging Rangers have won nine straight coming into this series -- all as favorites, but come into this series as an underdog which I believe offers great value. Yu Darvish comes off a fantastic outing and should win on Sunday and A.J. Griffin is having a career year so far and should be able compete with Justin Verlander on Saturday. Most of all, this Rangers squad is on fire. Why stop betting them to win? Also, Texas has won nine of the past 12 meetings. And something to also think of this weekend if that Detroit is 2-7 in their last nine games as a favorite.
NY Yankees (24-14) at Tampa Bay (21-22)
Series Price: Yankees -125, Rays +105
Scheduled Rotation: Severino (2-2) vs. Ramirez (2-0), Tanaka (5-2) vs. Andriese (3-1), Sabathia (3-2) vs. Archer (3-2)
The first-place Yankees are up +8.4 units of profit for bettors and lead baseball with a +1.6 average margin of victory (5.8 to 4.2). They've been a great 'over' team at 23-15 which is a winner for bettors 60.5 percent of the time. Early on the Yankees were looked at as a team that was great at home but struggled on the road, but now they're the road warriors going 8-2 in their last 10 on the road. Something to take note of in this series is that the Rays have been cashing in as underdogs going 6-2 in their last eight.
Kansas City (17-23) at Minnesota (20-17)
Series Price: Twins -130, Royals +110
Scheduled Rotation: Karns (2-2) vs. Santiago (4-2), Kennedy (0-3) vs. Wilk (0-1), Hammel (1-5) vs. Hughes (4-2)
The Royals are 3-9 in their last 12 road games and 3-10 in their last 13 as a favorite, so be careful this weekend even though they're hitting the ball with much more authority than the first five weeks of the season. The Twins have gone 8-3-1 to the 'over' in their last 12 home games, but the road has been where they've had more success. They're 11-5 on the road and only 9-12 at home. However, they're in first-place of the ultra-competitive AL Central. It's only a one-game lead over the Tigers and Indians, but it's still impressive considering they were supposed to finish last in the division. Last is where the Royals are and they have the worst margin of victory in the AL at -42 runs.
The Prez
Chicago at Seattle
Play: Seattle -110
The Chicago White Sox take to Safeco Field this FlashBack Friday night in a contest against the Seattle Mariners. The game is slated to see first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET and finds two lefties taking the hill, Sox' Jose Quintana (2-5, 4.38 ERA) and Mariners Ariel Miranda (3-2, 4.79).
Southpaw Quintana is off a contest in which he went six innings allowing just one run on five hits and striking out 10 while walking two but this was against the most inept lineup in all of baseball versus left-handed pitching, the Kansas City Royals. Quintana is an inconsistent option on tonight's betting board. He has, this season, doubled his walk percentage, from 6 last season to 12 in 2017. His strike out rate has dropped but most concerning his is SwStr% falling to a lowly seven percent. His velocity has fallen, as well, as much as 3 m.p.h. on average.
Quintana has always been dependent on his command and locating his secondary pitches and this has been an issue in April and early May. The bottom line results have seen an increase in his hard contact percentage which has climbed to nearly 40 percent and he faces off against a Seattle lineup that has been at its best versus lefties.
Seattle starter, Miranda, had solid surface numbers in his last start, striking out eight over five innings, but against a Toronto Blue Jays injury riddled lineup that doesn't hit left-handed pitching with any consistency. However, the M's southpaw has an edge tonight against the White Sox and he takes a career 6-1 record with a 3.02 ERA in 10 career appearances while tossing from the Safeco Field hill.