Free Picks for Thursday, May 18th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
DUCKS VS. PREDATORS
PLAY: PREDATORS -145
This is a spot where I would normally be looking at the underdog. Anaheim bounced back after losing the opener of this series at home, and I can see why many will make a case they’re worth backing in a similar situation tonight as good sized road dogs.
But there’s one fly in that ointment, and I think it’s a big one. The Predators look fresher, faster and stronger than the Ducks and I don’t know why that suddenly changes tonight.
One of the funnier things I read following Game Three was from SoCal writer who said that the Ducks let Game Three get away. This individual is either a fan wearing rose colored glasses, or he simply doesn’t know what he’s looking at. Nashville dominated Game Three, and in a very big way. The 3-1 final score was very misleading as this easily could have been a blowout.
Maybe zig-zag works here but if the Ducks are overwhelmed as they were in Game Three, they will need a phenomenal game from goalie Martin Jones to register the upset. I don’t see it happening against a Nashville team that is still perfect at home this post-season. I favor the Predators tonight.
Mike Lundin
Blue Jays vs. Braves
Play: Over 8
The Toronto Blue Jays took an 8-4 beating here at SunTrust Park yesterday. Over is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings and odds are we'll see plenty of runs again in Thursday night's matchup.
The Blue Jays hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (3-2, 3.33 ERA). He has allowed just two runs in 12 innings of work in his last two starts combined, but the right-hander was knocked around for five runs on six hits and three walks in just three innings in the Bronx his last start on the road. Over is 4-0 in Stroman's last four starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
The Braves turn to Julio Teheran (3-3, 4.08 ERA) who threw six shutout innings in a 3-1 victory at Miami his last time out. He had however surrendered 19 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings in his four previous starts and Teheran has posted a 6.60 ERA with five homers allowed in 15 innings through three career starts against Toronto.
Atlanta's first baseman Freddie Freeman will miss this game after getting hit on the inside of the left wrist by a pitch on Wednesday, but I think the low number warrants a play.
Jim Feist
Ducks vs. Predators
Play: Ducks +135
Anaheim is a veteran team with talent and balance in bounce back mode. They were behind in Game 2 2-0 and came back to win. The Ducks are #3 in the NHL in goals allowed, #4 in penalty killing. The Ducks are 20-7 vs. a team with a winning record, plus 20-8 overall and 26-12 playing on one day of rest. Nashville is a big favorite but finished fourth in its own division while ranked #15 in goals allowed.
Scott Spreitzer
Yankees vs. Royals
Play: Yankees -114
Duffy has pitched well after two bad starts to end April and begin May. But he's facing a seriously tough test tonight with the Yankees busting left-handed pitching for 6 rpg. And a big problem besides the Yankee lineup is the fact I don't believe Duffy will get enough help from his own offense, averaging just 2.8 rpg against lefties. Montgomery has a pair of decent road starts under his belt and we'll back the Yankees as they aim to make it three straight wins and 12-7 on the road this season.
Marc Lawrence
Nationals vs. Pirates
Play: Nationals -126
Edges - Nationals: Roark 2.55 ERA away as opposed to 4.71 ERA home this season… Pirates: Glasnow 7.98 ERA and 2.08 WHIP overall this season… With Roark 2-0 in his career team starts in this series, look for the Nats to improve 4-1 on Thursdays this season here this afternoon. We recommend a 1* play on Washington.
Dustin Hawkins
Yankees vs. Royals
Play: Royals +110
Kansas City is 21-9 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up less than 5.5 hits/start over the past 2 seasons. Royals pitcher Danny Duffy is 8-0 against the money line vs. Teams out scoring opp by .5 runs/game on the season over the past 3 seasons. The Royals are 28-12 in home games against the AL East opponents the past 3 seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Nationals vs. Pirates
Play: Nationals -126
I like the value here with the Nationals as a short road favorite against the Pirates early on Thursday. Washington's offense struggled to get anything going against Pittsburgh's ace Gerrit Cole yesterday, but should have no problem bouncing back against the struggling youngster Tyler Glasnow, who is 1-3 with a 7.98 ERA and 2.080 WHIP in 7 starts this season. Last time out Glasnow gave up 7 runs before the 3rd inning. Keep in mind this is a Washington team that is scoring 6.0 runs/game with a .280 average on the season.
The Nationals will counter with Tanner Roark, who is 3-1 with a respectable 3.88 ERA in 8 starts. What stands out to me in this game, is the fact that Roark owns a 2.55 ERA in 3 road starts and a 1.38 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in two day starts.
Nats are 15-5 in their last 20 after a loss, 9-3 in their last 12 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 8-1 in their last 9 during Game 3 of a series and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tony Karpinski
Nationals vs. Pirates
Play: Nationals -126
Washington is 13-7 on the road and coming off of a game where they only had 3 hits.
The Pirates are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball.
Washington Bryce Harper has 12 homers up to the 5.15.17 period of the season to go nicely along with a knock out .384 avg that would give him a potential MVP season if he keeps it up. Harper is still just 24 years old, and after last season's disappointing campaign the Nats have to think he may not have reached his offensive pinnacle yet.
With just a scattered few games where they scored 4 or more runs - Pittsburgh will host Washington for a tough game.
The former .300 hitter, Francisco Cervelli, has been a real disappointment thus far in 2017. Pittsburgh just doesn't have the offense to keep pace here on Thursday afternoon.
Tony Karpinski
Nationals vs. Pirates
Play: Nationals -126
Washington is 13-7 on the road and coming off of a game where they only had 3 hits.
The Pirates are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball.
Washington Bryce Harper has 12 homers up to the 5.15.17 period of the season to go nicely along with a knock out .384 avg that would give him a potential MVP season if he keeps it up. Harper is still just 24 years old, and after last season's disappointing campaign the Nats have to think he may not have reached his offensive pinnacle yet.
With just a scattered few games where they scored 4 or more runs - Pittsburgh will host Washington for a tough game.
The former .300 hitter, Francisco Cervelli, has been a real disappointment thus far in 2017. Pittsburgh just doesn't have the offense to keep pace here on Thursday afternoon.
Mike Anthony
Philadelphia vs. Texas
Play: Texas -156
Texas Elvis Andrus has been putting up nice numbers at .289 and 18 RBI after struggling a bit on the offensive side of the ball. Texas is swatting the ball around with 53 HRs as a team with 511 Total bases over the 5.15.2017 period. Perez will likely get the start at pitcher and will be just fine vs a recently struggling team like Philly. Philadelphia has lacked some pitching depth, and Pivetta is a 24 yr old upstart - problem is, those things don't always add up to success. When the Phillies season started - their young star, Odubel Herrera, was expected to hit 30 HRs and bring in 100 RBI - at this point, Herrera will be lucky to get to 20 HRs and 65 RBI. The whole team needs a renewed sense of purpose.
Mike Lundin
Boston vs. Oakland
Play: Over 9
Both teams have been involved in several high-scoring games lately and over is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings.
Sonny Gray (0-1, 3.78 ERA) takes the ball for Oakland. He held Texas to two runs on five hits through six innings his last time out. We can however note that the over is 8-0-1 in Gray's last nine starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Gray faced Boston once last year and was torched for seven runs and eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings in a loss at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox turn to rookie Hector Velazquez who will make his major league debut. He holds a 1.55 ERA and 20/5 K/BB ratio over 29 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket, but there will be a lot of pressure on him tonight. Note that Boston played several extra innings at St. Louis Wednesday night so the Red Sox bullpen will be taxed. That could spell big big problems if Velazquez was to get into early trouble.
Robert Ferringo
Toronto at Atlanta
Play: Under 8
This will be the fourth game this week between these two teams and both will be looking ahead to new opponents for the weekend. The crux of this play is that I think Julio Teheran is due. He was really sharp at Miami over the weekend and his 4.08 ERA overall and 8.14 ERA at home are two numbers that I see coming down. He's really only had two bad starts this year. Beside those two outings, his ERA would be just 2.00. He's been consistently good for the past four years and I see him finding his form. For Toronto, Marcus Stroman has been dominating since his turn at the World Baseball Classic this spring. He has just a 3.33 ERA this season. However, he has six quality starts in his eight total outings. Like Teheran, if you kick out those two bad starts against the Red Sox and Yankees then Stroman has just a 1.64 ERA this season. He should dominate the Braves, who have been shaky on offense. I see a 3-1 or 3-2 game here and I see this one going 'under'
John Fisher
Yankees vs. Royals
Play: Royals +110
SP Duffy is a dog because overall the Yankees lineup,is just much better. Royals are really struggling at the plate but I believe SP Montgomery is just average. SP Duffy has only allowed 2 hrs all year. Yankees did get to Vargas but I believe Duffy stuff is actually better and his attack the zone might work better versus this highly disciplined Yankee line up.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +116 over MINNESOTA Game 1
German Marquez is only four starts into his second season. Last year he appeared in six games with three of those coming as a starter. With a 4.88 ERA this year after four starts, he appears to be the second best option in this one and that may well be. However, this kid can pitch. Signed by the Rays in 2011 out of Venezuela for $225,000, Marquez was the prime player the Rockies received after the 2015 season when they traded Corey Dickerson to Tampa Bay. Marquez repaid the Rockies' confidence with a breakout 2016. He made the jump from Double-A Hartford to Triple-A Albuquerque to the big leagues in 2016, beating the Cardinals with five quality innings to win his first start. Marquez has plus velocity and it comes effortlessly at a consistent 94-96 mph and touches 98. The ball comes out of his hand with velocity and never fades. Marquez's solid three-pitch assortment includes a curveball that flashes plus and has good spin. His 2016 focus was to tighten it up, which he did. His changeup still needs work but it has good velocity differential from his fastball. He has shown an ability to pitch inside and use his changeup even when behind in the count. Most impressively, he reduced his walk rate in 2016 by more than a half walk per nine innings. This year, Marquez has 21 K’s in 24 innings. He has an outstanding 53% groundball rate. He’s a potential stud with nothing but upside and of all the Rocks’ starters, Marquez may give his team the best chance to win. With a 12-5 road record so far this year and with Marquez on the hill, the Rocks are live to be sure
Ervin Santana is killing it right now. After eight starts, Santana is 6-1 with a 1.50 ERA and he’s coming off a seven-inning, two-hit, zero earned runs gem against the Indians. While Santana has been serviceable for years, he’s not close to being this good but the market buys surface stats, which provides us with a beautifully inflated price here. Santana has a BB/K split of 21/41 in 54 frames. There’s nothing good about that at all. In fact, his BB/K ratio is poor. His 9% swing and miss rate is league average and so is his 60% first-pitch strike rate. Santana’s strong ERA is the direct result of MLB’s highest strand rate (92%) among qualified starters. Santana’s BABIP (batting average of balls in play) is a ridiculous .128 which is probably equivalent to a batter hitting .600 over the course of a season. In other words, that BABIP is impossible to sustain. Santana’s xERA is 4.07. Santana’s repertoire has not changed one bit so it’s not like he’s found some secret pitch all of a sudden. He’s been serviceable and extremely lucky and now he’s grossly overpriced because of it.
Boston +100 over OAKLAND
Frankly, we couldn’t care who is pitching here. When we can take the Red Sox and spot under -275 against Oakland, it’s a bet we’re going to make more often than not. Ok, that’s exaggerating but you get the point. This game is evenly priced because Sonny Gray is a recognizable name with pedigree while the Red Sox will send out a rookie that nobody has heard of and that there is not a lot of information on. We’ll get to Hector Velazquez in a sec but first we’ll look at Oakland’s overvalued starter.
Gray has made just three starts this year and in 17 innings, he has a mere nine K’s with an 8% swing and miss rate. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and he’s likely to get better as the season wears on because he still possesses the skills that netted him a 3.08 ERA or lower in each of his first three seasons. Gray’s xERA's aren't quite as kind (career 3.76), but even that ERA is solid. However, Gray pitches for the A’s so that makes his value less. The bullpen behind him is atrocious, which also lowers the value on both Oakland and all its starters. Gray is slowly recovering from a series of injuries (neck, shoulder, oblique) but he's missed a ton of time over the past 20 months and he's not back to full strength yet.
A year ago, Hector Velazquez was pitching for Acereros de Monclova, a team based in Mexico’s most prolific steel-producing city, unknown to nearly all baseball fans in the United States. Velazquez was on loan from Piratas de Campeche, the team for which he’d pitched his first six seasons and even winning Rookie of the Year honors in Liga Mexicana de Béisbol in 2010.
Velazquez, a right-hander, made 22 starts for a Monclova team that finished second in its division. He struck out more than seven batters for every one he walked, which was easily the best ratio of any pitcher in the league who made at least 10 starts. Last year was his breakout year in which Velazquez posted 120 strikeouts, 16 walks and a 2.47 ERA in 131 innings for Monclova. Pitching for Monclova is equivalent to pitching at the Triple A level. In five starts for Pawtucket prior to this call-up, Velazquez allowed just 18 hits in 29 frames while whiffing 20 and walking five. Velazquez generates lots of groundballs but he also can get hitters to swing and miss at his lively pitch mix. He has a good, deceptive change-up that can be potent against left-handed hitters. His ability to pair overpowering raw stuff and an extreme groundball tilt gives him an intriguing foundation for which to work with and it’s not like he’s facing the Orioles in Baltimore here. He’s facing a team that makes almost everyone they face look like Sandy Koufax. Pencil us in here on the Red Sox and this unknown starter that won’t be unknown for long.
Chicago +145 over SEATTLE
Dylan Covey is 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA so he deserves to be the dog here. Covey's first six MLB starts have gone about as poorly as possible. He's a 25-year-old who has only 29 IP of Double-A experience coming off an oblique injury that ended his 2016 season in May. Nothing in his skill history suggests he should be in a major league rotation, but he's a Rule 5 pick, so the White Sox have to try to find a way to keep him on the roster all season. It would not be surprising to see him move to the bullpen when Carlos Rodon returns from injury. However, that also tells us that Covey is not without long-term promise. He had many scouts interested in him after an appearance in the 2016 Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 4.74 ERA with 10 K’s/9 over six starts. In his last start, Covey struck out nine batters in just 4.1 innings. Covey has pitched in Minnesota, the Bronx and Baltimore. He’s pitched twice at US Cellular so he’s only had one pitcher’s park appearance out of six working in his favor and this will be the second. Covey has a power arm and he has great potential too but he’s raw and he pitches for the struggling South Side, which is why the offering is so generous.
Who the f**k are the Mariners to be priced in this range with a rookie making his first MLB start? Seattle went into Toronto last week for a four-game set and and got buried/swept by a bunch of replacement players. They returned home to take two of three from the A’s but so what. The White Sox aren’t winning a lot of games lately but they come to play every night and they can score some runs too. All that aside, Sam Gaviglio cannot be priced in this range because he’s not a top prospect and has never started a game at this level.
The Mariners recalled the 26-year-old Gaviglio from Triple-A and the career starter worked two innings out of the pen before being asked to start here. Drafted by the Cardinals in the fifth round in 2011, Gaviglio was dealt to Seattle in a minor trade in November 2014. He has an excellent feel for pitching and can command his sinker/slider combination impeccably well. He works to both sides of the plate and induces a high number of groundballs by getting great, late action on his fastball. His slider doesn’t miss many bats, but he can drop it into the zone for strikes. Gaviglio’s best offering may be his change-up. He repeats his arm speed consistently and it gives him a deceptive weapon against left-handed hitters. Despite all the accolades, he doesn’t throw very hard—sits in the high-80s—and he is a pitch-to-contact guy. He will give up his fair share of hits and he needs to maintain his above average command to have any hope of carving out a big league career. In 32 innings for Tacoma prior to being called up, Gaviglio struck out just 16 batters. This kid throws strikes, strikes and more strikes but with a career ERA/xERA split in the minors of 4.01/4.42 over 625 innings, he’s not close to being worthy of this billing. Covey is a rookie too but he’s paid some dues and he’s not the one spotting a Dallas Keuchel-like price. Thus, me must play the true value here.