MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, May 18th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Nationals @ Pirates
Roark is 0-1, 5.40 in his last three starts (over 6-1-1).
Glasnow is 0-2, 11.42 in his last two starts (over 5-1-1).
Washington won four of its last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Pittsburgh lost seven of last ten games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Reds @ Cubs
Garrett is back from AAA; he is 3-2, 4.50 in six starts this year (over 3-3).
Lester is 1-2, 5.90 in his last five starts, all of which went over total.
Reds lost five games in row, nine of last 11 road games; over is 3-0 in their last three games. Cubs are 5-3 in last eight home games; over is 11-1 in last 12 games at Wrigley Field.
Brewers @ Padres
Davies is 4-0, 4.15 in his last five starts; Brewers scored 40 runs in the five games. Over is 7-1 in his starts this season.
Cosart is 0-1, 3.52 in two starts this year (over 1-1), last of which was April 18.
Brewers won eight of their last ten games- five of their last six games went over the total. San Diego lost seven of last nine games. Over is 10-3 in their last 13 home games.
Marlins @ Dodgers
Volquez is 0-4, 5.68 in his last four starts (under 5-1-1).
Ryu is 1-5, 6.46 in six starts this year, two of which were at Coors Field (1-1, 3.97 at home).
Miami lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 2-5 n road series openers. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Dodgers lost three of their last four games; they’re 4-2 in home series openers. Over is 4-2-2 in their last eight home games.
American League
Orioles @ Tigers
Bundy is 4-0, 2.11 in his last six starts (under 5-3).
Zimmerman is 2-2, 7.44 in his last six starts (over 5-2).
Baltimore lost five of its last six games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Detroit won four of last six games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.
Bronx @ Kansas City
Montgomery is 1-2, 4.56 in his last four starts (over 4-2).
Duffy is 0-3, 5.79 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
New York won eight of last nine road games; over is 12-5 in their last 17 games. Kansas City won six of its last nine games; under is 9-3 in their last dozen home games.
White Sox @ Mariners
Covey is 0-2, 9.00 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts.
Gaviglio is making his first MLB start; he is 2-3, 3.31 in five AAA starts this season.
White Sox lost nine of their last eleven games; they’re 2-5 in road series openers. Over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Seattle lost five of its last seven games; they’re 4-2 in home series openers- over is 10-5-1 in their last 16 games.
Red Sox @ A’s
Velasquez is making his MLB debut here; he was 2-1,1.55 in five starts in AAA. He is 28 and has pitched a lot in the Mexican League.
Gray is 0-1, 5.40 in three starts this year (over 3-0).
Red Sox played 13 innings in St Louis last night; they’re 5-2 in last seven road games, 2-4 in road series openers. Oakland lost six of its last eight games; over is 13-5 in their last 18 games. A’s are 3-3 in home series openers.
Interleague
Blue Jays @ Braves
Stroman is 2-0, 3.16 in his last five starts (over 3-1 in his last four).
Teheran is 2-3, 6.26 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1 in his last five).
Braves won five of last six games; over is 6-1-2 in their last nine home games. Toronto lost its last three games, allowing 27 runs; four of their last five games went over.
Phillies @ Rangers
Pivetta is 0-2, 6.14 in three starts this year (over 1-1-1).
Perez is 0-4, 5.20 in his last five starts (under 6-2).
Phillies lost seven of their last eight road games; over is 11-2-3 in their last 16 road games. Texas won its last eight games; over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Rockies @ Twins
Marquez is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under.
Chatwood 1-3, 6.65 in his last four starts (under 5-3).
Santana is 6-1, 1.50 in eight starts this year (over 2-1-2 at home). Berrios allowed one run in 7.2 IP in his first ’17 start, at Cleveland.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Wsh-Pitt: Roark 5-3; Glasnow 4-3
Cin-Chi: Garrett 4-2; Lester 3-5
Mil-SD: Davies 5-3 (5-0 last 5); Cosart 1-1
Mia-LA: Volquez 1-6; Ryu 1-5
American League
Blt-Det: Bundy 6-2; Zimmerman 3-4
NY-KC: Montgomery 3-3; Duffy 3-5
Bos-A’s: Velasquez 0-0; Gray 1-2
Chi-Sea: Covey 3-3; Gaviglio 0-0
Interleague
Tor-Atl: Stroman 4-4; Teheran 3-5
Phil-Tex: Pivetta 0-3; Perez 2-6
Colo-Minn: Marquez 5-2 Chatwood 3-5; Santana 6-2 Berrios 1-0
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Wsh-Pitt: Roark 3-8; Glasnow 3-7
Cin-Chi: Garrett 2-6; Lester 3-8
Mil-SD: Davies 1-8; Cosart 0-2
Mia-LA: Volquez 3-7; Ryu 5-6
American League
Blt-Det: Bundy 1-8; Zimmerman 3-7
NY-KC: Montgomery 2-6; Duffy 1-8
Bos-A’s: Velasquez 0-0; Gray 0-3
Chi-Sea: Covey 4-6; Gaviglio 0-0
Interleague
Tor-Atl: Stroman 1-8; Teheran 3-8
Phil-Tex: Pivetta 2-3; Perez 4-8
Colo-Minn: Marquez 5-2 Chatwood 0-8; Santana 6-2 Berrios 0-1
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Rangers (8-0 past eight games, 14-4 past 18 at home)
The Rangers are trying to keep their Lone Star State rivals, the Houston Astros, within hailing distance in the American League West Division. It's a tall order, as the Astros keep winning. Texas enters Thursday's interleague series finale with an eight-game winning streak in tow, winning the first two games of their interleague series with the Phillies by a combined score of 14-4. Pitching has been the biggest key for the Rangers during their impressive run, allowing just 2.5 runs per game over the past eight. The Phillies have won just three of their past 17 overall while going 3-12 in their past 15 interleague road games against a left-handed starter, so a sweep certainly looks rather favorable for Texas.
Coldest team Marlins (1-8 past nine overall, 2-5 past seven road games)
The Marlins were broomed at home by the Astros, and they were outscored by a combined 22-4 in the three-game interleague set. Manager Don Mattingly's bunch certainly looked outclassed by one of the American League's best, now his Marlins head to the left coast to face his old employer, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Perhaps the Fish are catching a bit of a break, as they won't have to deal with the red-hot Clayton Kershaw. L.A. is just 1-3 over its past four outings, but they have managed an impressive plus-55 run differential which is good for No. 1 in the National League.
Hottest pitcher: Dylan Bundy, Orioles (5-1, 2.26 ERA)
Bundy hits the hill Thursday looking for his ninth quality start in as many outings when he faces the Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit. He hasn't tasted defeat since April 11 in Boston, and he spun six scoreless innings in his only other daytime start on April 16 in Toronto.While the O's are 1-5 in their past six games overall, and 1-5 in their past six outings on the road, they're an impressive 5-1 in Bundy's past six appearances. They're also catching the Tigers are a good time, as they have posted a 3-7 record in Jordan Zimmermann's past 10 outings while going 0-5 in their past five games following a win.
Coldest pitcher: Tyler Chatwood, Rockies (3-5, 5.25 ERA)
Chatwood and the Rockies hit the road for a date with the Twins at Target Field. He has dropped three of his past four decisions, and he hasn't won on the road since April 15 in San Francisco. He'll be making his first appearance at Target Field since May 27, 2011 when he was a member of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Chatwood has served up nine homers across just 48 innings, walking 22 while striking out 37. Opponents are hitting .247 against him over eight starts. The good news for Chatwood is that the Twins have clubbed just 46 homers, tied for 15th in the majors while posting a .247 team batting average.
Biggest UNDER run: Tigers (4-1 past five games)
The 'under' hasn't been a frequent occurence for anyone lately, but the flagging Tigers offense has helped total bettors cash at the window lately. Outside of an 11-run outburst May 16 vs. the O's, the Detroit bats have produced very little lately. The offense is averaging just 4.3 runs per game over the past five, including that 11-run performance, and just 2.5 runs per game if you take that 11-run tally out of the equation. They're facing the red-hot Bundy, with the 'under' going 7-3-1 in his past 11 starts overall, including 3-1-1 in his past five assignments on the road.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (10-3-1 past 15 games)
The Twins have been a strong play on the 'over' lately, going 11-3-1 in their past 15 games overall, 13-2-1 in their past 16 interleague home games and 8-1-1 in their past 10 interleague home games against a right-handed starter. While the under is 9-2-1 in Ervin Santana's past 12 starts overall, the over is 4-1 in the past five opening games of a doubleheader and 7-2-1 in the past 10 against right-handed starters. The over is also 10-4 in Colorado's past 14 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Marlins
Mattingly brings his ice-cold Marlins out to face manager Dave Roberts and the Dodgers. L.A. opens a 10-game homestand, looking to turn things around after dropping three of the past four overall. Edinson Volquez takes the ball for the Marlins looking for much better results. He is 0-5 with a 4.41 ERA overall, and he has walked 24 batters over just 34 2/3 innings. He is also 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA across nine career starts against the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Hyun-Jin Ryu looks to improve on his 1-1 record, 3.97 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over two home starts this season.
Betcha didn’t know: The Marlins might be running cold right now, but they were able to post a four-game sweep at Dodger Stadium last season. In fact, Miami has won five straight trips to Chavez Ravine while going 6-1 in their past seven meetings overall. The 'over' is a frequent happened with the Marlins and Dodgers hook up, going 24-6-3 in the past 33 in Los Angeles and 39-16-5 in the past 60 meetings in this series.
Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-205) vs. Reds
Biggest public underdog: Brewers (+125) at Padres
Biggest line move: Padres (-115 to -125) vs. Brewers
Blue Jays face Braves
By: StatFox.com
The Blue Jays will be hoping to avoid a four-game losing streak when they take on the red-hot Braves on Thursday.
Toronto had seemingly found its groove over the past few weeks, but the team comes into this game on a three-game losing streak. In a division as good as the AL East, the team must find its footing soon. The Blue Jays can’t afford to fall too far behind once again, so this game against the Braves is a big one. Atlanta, meanwhile, is playing its best baseball of the season right now. The Braves have won three straight games and five of their past six, and they have done so with some explosive offense. In the first three games of this series, the Braves put up a total of 27 runs on 34 hits. They’ll hope to keep that up when they try to finish off the sweep at home. The starters in this Thursday night matchup are going to be RHP Marcus Stroman (3-2, 3.33 ERA, 40 K) for Toronto and RHP Julio Teheran (3-3, 4.08 ERA, 34 K) for Atlanta. These are two of the best pitchers these teams have to offer, so don’t be surprised if this one turns into a duel on the mound. It is, however, worth noting that the Braves are 1-10 against the money line at home over the past two seasons when the money line is between +125 and -125 when Teheran is starting. 1B Freddie Freeman (Wrist) is out indefinitely for Atlanta.
The Blue Jays can really use a victory on Thursday, and they’ll be happy to have Stroman on the mound in a must-win game. Over his past two starts, the righty has allowed just two earned runs in 12 innings of work. He has, however, walked four batters and allowed 14 hits in those games. He’ll need to do a bit of a better job of keeping people off the bases in this one. Offensively, the Jays will need some production out of guys like OF Jose Bautista (.208 BA, 6 HR, 19 RBI) and 2B Devon Travis (.209 BA, 1 HR, 10 RBI). Bautista has had a few big games lately, as he has had two or more hits in three of the past five contests. He has also homered in four of the past eight games, and it’d be big if he can go yard once again on Thursday. Travis, meanwhile, has also gotten himself going a bit. He hit two doubles in three straight games before going 1-for-2 with a walk on Wednesday. That’s big for a career .286 hitter that is hitting just .209 on the season. He knows he is far too good to struggle the way he has, but his confidence is back now.
The Braves are playing some great baseball right now, and a lot of that obviously has to do with the play of superstar 1B Freddie Freeman (.341 BA, 14 HR, 25 RBI). While these things really never hold up, Freeman is currently on pace to hit 61 homers and drive in 109 RBI. Unfortunately the Braves must find a way to produce offensively without the slugger. He injured his wrist and could be out for the next 8-10 weeks. The Braves will, however, need the good Julio Teheran to show up on Thursday, and not the bad one. Teheran is definitely Atlanta’s ace, but he is very inconsistent. His last start went very well for the team, allowing no earned runs in six innings of work. He did, however, allow a total of 10 earned runs in his previous two starts. Both of those came at home, which is exactly where he’ll be in this one. Teheran must show up or the team has no chance of earning a sweep.