MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, May 17th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Nationals @ Pirates
Turner has been pitching in relief; he allowed three runs in six IP in his only ’17 start, at Coors Field in Denver.
Cole is 0-3, 2.45 in his last five starts (under 7-1). Pirates scored 8 runs in his last 5 starts.
Washington won four of its last five games; over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Pittsburgh lost seven of last nine games; under is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Reds @ Cubs
Feldman is 1-0, 1.13 in his last two starts (under 4-3-1).
Hendricks is 1-1, 1.90 in his last four starts, all of which stayed under.
Reds lost eight of last ten road games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Cubs lost seven of last ten games; over is 10-1 in last eleven games at Wrigley Field.
Mets @ Diamondbacks
Harvey is 0-3, 10.43 in his last three starts (over 5-1-1).
Corbin is 1-1, 6.61 in his last three starts (over 4-4).
Mets lost last six games; over is 10-0-1 in their last 11 road games. Arizona won five of its last seven games. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.
Brewers @ Padres
Garza is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts (over 2-2).
Chacin is 2-0, 3.78 in his last three starts (under 5-3).
Brewers won seven of their last nine games- their last five games went over the total. San Diego lost six of last eight games. Over is 10-2 in their last 12 home games.
Dodgers @ Giants
Kershaw is 5-1, 2.32 in his last six starts (under 3-1 on road).
Cueto is 1-1, 3.86 in his last four starts (over 5-2-1).
Dodgers lost their last three games; over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. San Francisco won six of last seven games; under is 14-4-2 in their home games this season.
American League
Rays @ Indians
Cobb is 2-1, 2.66 in his last three starts- under is 2-0-1 in those games.
Tomlin is 0-1, 1.20 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four starts.
Tampa Bay won five of last six road games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Cleveland lost four of last five games; under is 13-4 in their last 17 games.
Orioles @ Tigers
Jimenez is 0-1, 8.79 in his last three starts (over 5-1).
Fulmer is 3-0, 2.57 in his last four starts, all of which went over.
Baltimore lost four of last five games, all decided by bullpen; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Detroit won three of last five games; four of their last six games stayed under.
Bronx @ Kansas City
Pineda is 1-1, 3.91 in his last four starts (over 4-2 in his last six starts).
Vargas is 2-0, 0.47 in his last three starts (under 6-1).
New York lost four of last six games; over is 11-5 in their last sixteen games. Kansas City won six of its last eight games; under is 9-2 in their last eleven home games.
White Sox @ Angels
Gonzalez is 0-3, 7.13 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
Shoemaker is 2-1, 4.03 in his last four starts (over 4-4).
White Sox lost eight of their last ten games. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Angels won their last three games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
A’s @ Mariners
Hahn is 1-1, 2.93 in his last five starts (over 3-3).
Bergman allowed three runs in five IP (66 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 4-3 win over Texas.
Oakland lost five of its last seven games; over is 13-4 in their last 17 games. Seattle lost five of its last six games; over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games.
Interleague
Astros @ Marlins
McCullers is 1-0, 1.40 in his last three starts (under 4-1 in his last five).
Urena is 1-1, 1.50 in two starts this year (over 1-1).
Astros are 7-1 in last eight games; over is 9-6 in their last 15 games. Miami lost six of its last seven games; over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Blue Jays @ Braves
Biagini is 1-0, 1.00 in his first two starts (under 2-0)- he threw nine innings total.
Foltynewicz is 0-2, 7.36 in two home starts (over 3-3).
Braves won four of last five games; over is 5-1-2 in their last eight home games. Toronto won five of its last seven games; three of their last four went over.
Phillies @ Rangers
Eflin is 0-0, 3.00 in his last four starts- his last three starts went over.
Cashner is 0-2, 2.25 in his last five starts (under 5-0-1).
Phillies lost six of their last seven road games; over is 10-2-3 in their last 15 road games. Texas won its last seven games; under is 13-4-1 in their last 18 home games.
Rockies @ Twins
Marquez is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under.
Santana is 6-1, 1.50 in eight starts this year (over 2-1-2 at home).
Colorado won seven of its last ten games; under is 10-5 in their last 15 road games. Minnesota won four of last six games; over is 7-1 in their last eight home games.
Red Sox @ Cardinals
Porcello is 1-5, 5.35 in his last six starts (under 3-1-1 in last five).
Leake is 4-1, 2.11 in his last six starts (under 4-2-1).
Boston is 5-3 in its last eight road games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. St Louis won eight of last ten games; over is 17-4-1 in their last 22 games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
NY-Az: Harvey 2-5; Corbin 4-4
LA-SF: Kershaw 6-2; Cueto 6-2
Wsh-Pitt: Undecided Cole 3-5
Cin-Chi: Feldman 2-6; Hendricks 3-4
Mil-SD: Garza 3-1; Chacin 4-4
American League
TB-Clev: Cobb 3-5; Tomlin 3-4
Blt-Det: Jimenez 5-1; Fulmer 5-2
NY-KC: Pineda 5-2; Vargas 5-2
Chi-LAA: Gonzalez 4-3; Shoemaker 5-3
A’s-Sea: Hahn 2-4; Bergman 0-1
Interleague
Tor-Atl: Biagini 2-0; Foltynewicz 1-5
Hst-Mia: McCullers 6-2; Urena 1-1
Phil-Tex: Eflin 2-3; Cashner 2-4
Colo-Minn: Marquez 5-2; Santana 6-2
Bos-StL: Porcello 3-5; Leake 4-3
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
NY-Az: Harvey 3-7; Corbin 4-8
LA-SF: Kershaw 4-4; Cueto 1-8
Wsh-Pitt: Undecided Cole 1-8
Cin-Chi: Feldman 2-8; Hendricks 3-7
Mil-SD: Garza 1-4; Chacin 2-8
American League
TB-Clev: Cobb 1-8; Tomlin 3-7
Blt-Det: Jimenez 3-3; Fulmer 3-7
NY-KC: Pineda 4-7; Vargas 0-7
Chi-LAA: Gonzalez 3-7; Shoemaker 5-8
A’s-Sea: Hahn 2-6; Bergman 0-1
Interleague
Tor-Atl: Biagini 0-2; Foltynewicz 1-6
Hst-Mia: McCullers 1-8; Urena 0-2
Phil-Tex: Eflin 4-5; Cashner 2-6
Colo-Minn: Marquez 1-7; Santana 1-8
Bos-StL: Porcello 1-8; Leake 1-7
Umpires
National League
NY-Az: Underdogs are 6-3 in last nine Lentz games.
LA-SF: Over is 5-2 in Muchlinski games this season.
Wsh-Pitt: Under is 4-1-1 in Baker games this season.
Cin-Chi: Four of last five Kulpa games stayed under.
Mil-SD: Under is 9-3 in last twelve Blakney games.
American League
TB-Clev: Four of last five May games stayed under.
Blt-Det: Road team won last five Carlson games.
NY-KC: Home side won five of last six Scheurwater games.
Chi-LAA: Under is 7-4-1 in last 12 Gorman games.
A’s-Sea: Home side won all six Nauert games this season.
Interleague
Tor-Atl: Last five O’Nora games went over total.
Hst-Mia: Four of last five Reyburn games stayed under.
Phil-Tex: Last six Hallion games went over the total.
Colo-Minn: Over is 4-2-1 in Rackley games this season.
Bos-StL: Underdogs are 10-6 in last 16 Kellogg games.
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
'Under' has almost been automatic money when the Los Angeles Dodgers and southpaw Clayton Kershaw square off against San Francisco Giants. In the past 29 meetings between the NL West rivals with Kershaw on the mound, the 'Under' has been the right play 21 times with 6 'Over', 2 'Push' including a near perfect 13-1-1 'Under' at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Another positive for 'Under' gamblers, Kershaw has a habit of keeping the score low in an opposing park. In his last fourteen the result has been 11 'Under', 2 'Over' 1 'Push' including 9-2 'Under' with a total of 7 or less runs. Additionally, Dodgers have a 10-5-1 'Under' stretch in Kershaws last sixteen during daylight hours.
Oddsmakers at Sports Interaction expecting runs hard to come by have opened the total at 6.5
Red Sox, Cardinals meet
By: StatFox.com
The Red Sox will be going for a two-game sweep over the Cardinals in St. Louis on Wednesday.
The Red Sox went into St. Louis and defeated the Cardinals 6-3 on Tuesday. Boston has now won three of its past five games, and the team will be hoping to win a second straight in this one. The Cardinals, meanwhile, were going for their ninth win in 10 games in last night’s contest. They do, however, know that they can’t win them all, so their confidence won’t take any hit heading into Wednesday’s game. The starters in this primetime matchup will be RHP Rick Porcello (2-5, 4.01 ERA, 52 K) for Boston and RHP Mike Leake (4-2, 1.94 ERA, 32 K) for St. Louis. These guys have had very opposite seasons, as Porcello has struggled after a career year in 2016 and Leake has bounced back from a rather lousy season last year. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that St. Louis is 10-25 against the money line over the past two seasons in home games versus good defensive catchers that allow 0.5 or less stolen bases per game. The Red Sox are, however, a lousy 3-13 against the money line over the past two seasons versus starting pitchers that throw more than 6.5 innings per start. They also could be without 1B Hanley Ramirez (Trap), who is listed as questionable for this one. The Cardinals, meanwhile, remain without OF Stephen Piscotty (Hamstring).
After winning the AL Cy Young Award last season, Rick Porcello has really not been great to start off the year. Porcello has allowed three or more earned runs in four of his eight starts this season thus far. While that is not a huge number, it’s not what you would expect from somebody that looked like an ace in 2016. The righty wasn’t sharp in his last start either, allowing three earned runs on nine hits in six innings of work. He’ll need to do a bit of a better job of avoiding contact moving forward. Offensively, 1B Hanley Ramirez (.255 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI) will create a huge void in the lineup if he can’t go on Wednesday. He is 4-for-9 with a homer and four RBI against Leake in his career, so that would definitely be missed if he can’t go. One positive for Boston is that OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (.200 BA, 3 HR, 8 HR) had a good game on Wednesday. He has really struggled this season, but he went 2-for-3 with a solo shot in that game. It should get his confidence going a bit.
The Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, and Leake has been a driving force for this team in 2017. Leake has recorded a quality start or better in all seven of his appearances this season. He is inducing groundballs at an incredible rate, and he’ll look to stay hot against Boston in this one. One thing Leake will badly need to do is avoid the long-ball. He has allowed three homers over the past two games, and he’ll definitely want to keep the ball in the park in this one. Although it’s a very small sample size, OF Dexter Fowler (.228 BA, 4 HR, 13 RBI) is a guy that has gotten to Porcello in his career. Fowler is 2-for-6 with a double and an RBI against the righty in his career, and he also happens to have hit an RBI double on Tuesday night. He should be feeling good coming into this one, and the team will be counting on him to produce. The Cardinals will also be counting on guys like 3B Jedd Gyorko (.330 BA, 7 HR, 18 RBI) and C Yadier Molina (.269 BA, 3 HR, 14 RBI).
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (+120, 8.5)
When making picks on MLB totals, never lock in your wager without checking off all of the boxes of research items. Starting pitching, lefty-vs-righty, stadium tendencies, recent history of both teams, home plate umpire tendencies...and WEATHER. The game today in Kansas City between the visiting New York Yankees and the Royals features a pretty good pitching matchup, but the weather forecast for this evening at Kauffman Stadium just pops off the page and is too good to ignore.
A 20-25 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field is exactly what the doctor ordered to push today's game over the posted total of 8.5 (don't be surprised to see that number climb throughout the day).
Jason Vargas gets the ball at home for the Royals and he is off to a terrific start to the 2017 season with a 5-1 record, a 1.01 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP but the Yankees' offense in no joke and they have been punishing left-handed pitching - the Yanks rank second in the American League with a .762 OPS against lefties this season. The Yankees are averaging 8.33 runs per game over their last three contests, so they are showing no signs of slowing down.
The Royals offense got off to a terrible start to the season but they have seen improvement and are averaging 4.75 runs per game over their last eight. Yankees' starter Michael Pineda won't give you any free passes (only six walks all season) but he does have a tendency to give up fly balls and has allowed eight home runs in 2017.
Over has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings between the Yankees and Royals.
Pick: Over 8.5
Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers (-135, 10)
Zach Eflin gets the ball for Philadelphia today in Texas against Andrew Cashner and the surging Texas Rangers. While Eflin's numbers have been pretty good this season (2.81 ERA in five starts), you simply can't ignore how bad the Phillies have been recently.
The Phils have dropped 13 of their last 16 baseball games and nine of their last 11 on the road. They have also lost Eflin's last three starts - mostly thanks to their bullpen which has only converted six of 15 official save opportunities and owns an ERA of 4.68.
The Rangers, on the other hand, have won seven in a row including their last six games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. They seem to have worked out their early season bullpen struggles that cost the team (and this daily article) a few wins in April and even Sam Dyson is getting hitters out recently.
We're not huge Cashner fans, but when you get a team that is so hot against a team that is so bad at decent value you have to pull the trigger.
Pick: Rangers -135
Yesterday's Picks 2-0
Season to Date: 34-27-3
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Joe Biagini, Toronto Blue Jays (1-1, 2.28 ERA, $211)
Right-hander Joe Biagini may be a total goofball, but his conversion from middle/late reliever to a member of the dilapidated Blue Jays' starting rotation has been nothing but successful.
In his two starts since being plucked out of the pen Biagini has allowed zero earned runs, zero walks, and only six hits. He's not fully stretched out as a starter yet so five innings will be his max.
Biagini and the Jays are available at +105 for the full game tonight in Atlanta, and also +105 for the first five innings if you'd prefer.
Slumping: Matt Harvey, New York Mets (2-3, 5.62 ERA, $-414)
The Mets are a trainwreck this season and Matt Harvey hasn't exactly taken the ball and acted like a team leader. Even before he got cucked by Adriana Lima and Julian Edelman, went on a bender, and was suspended by the team for not showing up to work he was pitching like trash.
Harvey has too much talent to piss it away like he has been. He has a Team Win/Loss of 2-5 and a 5.62 ERA in seven starts this season, and over his last three outings he is 0-3 with an ERA of 10.43.
If you think he turns it around today in Phoenix against the Diamondbacks, the Mets are avaliable at +115.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* The Miami Marlins are 4-17 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter. +155 today vs. McCullers and the Astros.
* Over is 13-2-2 in the New York Mets' last 17 road games. Total 9.5 today @ Diamondbacks.
* Under is 15-2-1 in Clayton Kershaw's last 18 starts at AT&T Park vs. Giants. Total 6.5 today.
* The Oakland Athletics are 3-12 in their last 15 road games. -105 today @ Mariners.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
Rain will be a major problem today in Minneapolis where the Minnesota Twins are scheduled to entertain the Colorado Rockies. Thunderstorms, rain all evening, and 15 mile per hour wind blowing in from left field are all in the forecast. We wouldn't be surprised at all if this one gets washed out.
There are three games on today's schedule with big hitter's winds in the forecast:
*Tampa Bay at Cleveland (Total: 9.5) - 15-20 mile per hour wind blowing out to right field.
*Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (Total: 12.5) - 20-22 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field.
*New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Total: 8.5) - 20-25 mile per hour wind blowing out to center field.
Ump of the Day
Tom Hallion: You can expect some runs to be scored this evening in Arlington, Texas as Tom Hallion will be working the plate for the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Rangers. Hallion's last six games have gone Over the total (6-1 on the season) and he owns a miniscule Strike Percentage of 61.1 (put it on a tee, gentlemen). The Average Total Runs Per Game with Tom Hallion calling balls and strikes in 2017 is 11.0.
The total for today's game is currently set at 10.