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NASCAR: Pocono 400

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 5/31/18

 
Posted : May 31, 2018 10:01 am
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Pocono 400 Preview
May 30, 2018
By Micah Roberts

We've had 13 races pass by already and Kevin Harvick has five of the wins and Kyle Busch has four of them. There hasn't been much mystery to the 2018 Cup Series, but we should see somebody new in the winner's circle Sunday at Pocono Raceway.

The tricky 2.5-mile triangle is perhaps the most unique track on the circuit in that it only has three turns with each getting progressively flatter. No driver can be set up perfectly for all three turns.

“With the three different style turns at Pocono, you really have to have your car handling right in all three to be successful there," said three-time Pocono winner Jimmie Johnson. "It’s a wild track and we can hit speeds of 200 mph down the front stretch. Turn 3 is very important and can help with lap time significantly for qualifying. In the last few outings at Pocono we have had some really hard crashes so I’m hoping that is behind us.”

Because of the long drag strip on the front stretch, teams that have shown the most horsepower this season will have an edge. Yes, Kevin Harvick will be favored again. but this track may bring something different to the table that will allow for one of his teammates or a Joe Gibbs or Penske driver to win. The last seven races at Pocono have seen seven different winners and Harvick isn't one of them.

In fact, Pocono is on Harvick's bucket list of things to do. In 34 starts he's never won a race there. However, he's been runner-up four times including both races last season. All four of those runner-ups came within the last seven races there while driving for Stewart Haas Racing. He'll certainly be good enough to win.

Harvick's teammate, Las Vegan Kurt Busch, has been runner-up five times at Pocono but the difference between the two drivers is that Busch has won there three times driving for three different manufacturers. His last win there came in this 2016 race, his third season driving for Stewart Haas.

“It’s weird, I’ve had winning cars there a few different times and turn two always feels the best when my car has a chance to go to victory lane,' Busch said. "But, I think turn three, if you are able to pass cars and maneuver around them, you’ve got to get a good run off turn three to be ready to pass them in turn one. All of them are important. You can’t exclude one from another.”

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted Busch at 20/1 odds and he's easily the best value on the board.

Kurt's younger brother Kyle Busch checked Charlotte off his bucket list last week and in the last Pocono race in July he checked off Pocono from the list. He's won at every Cup Series track. It's pretty amazing stuff, and after winning his fourth race of the season and showing he's got some serious horsepower he's going to be tough to beat. Even Harvick may have some trouble catching him, especially if Busch starts from the pole like he did in both races last season. Busch has led laps in the last five races at Pocono.

“The hardest part of the track, for me, is probably turn one, and then turn two is the second-hardest, and then turn three is the third-hardest– turn three, last year, because of the patch they laid down." Kyle Busch said. "We couldn’t go down low and get underneath somebody and get a run on them because, when you come off the corner, you’re 8 to 10 mph slower than the guy on your outside and they’re just going to blow right by you going down the straightaway.”

Almost on par with Kyle Busch's horsepower is his two Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones. Hamlin is the active leader with four Pocono wins and he's looking for his first win of the season. This is a great spot for him. His last time at Pocono he started fourth and finished fourth, leading 18 laps.

“We’ve been so close to getting that first win of the season, but we’re obviously still looking to find that little bit of speed that will help us get to victory lane," said Hamlin. "This team has been working hard to get us out front, and we’re going to keep pushing until we get that first-place result we’re working for. We’ve had success at Pocono before, so this weekend could definitely be the time we make that happen.”

Jones appears to be getting more comfortable each week in the No. 20 and last season while driving the No. 77 he finished third in this race and eighth in the fall. Matt Kenseth drove the No. 20 to a Pocono win in 2015.

In the end, I don't know what the Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Finals has to do with handicapping this race, but I'm feeling especially Vegas proud this week with them and with Las Vegan Kyle Busch winning Sunday and another homeboy, Bryce Harper, homering on Tuesday. So let's go with the Vegas homer Busch quinella.

The Busch brothers are going to be really fast this weekend. Kurt's the better driver on that particular track, so 20-to-1 is quite attractive.

Also, how about Jimmie Johnson at 50-to-1? He's the active leader at Pocono with 738 laps led, but more importantly, crew chief Chad Knaus finally found some speed last week at Charlotte where they finished fifth. The new Camaro has been rough on the seven-time champ, but the slow trend with Johnson started the middle of last season. The key for Pocono is the horsepower they showed last week. There are worse things to waste $5 on.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #41 Kurt Busch (20/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (3/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
4) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/2)
5) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1)

 
Posted : May 31, 2018 10:03 am
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Best Bets - Pocono
June 2, 2018
By Daniel Dobish

Each week during the Monster Energy Cup Series (MENCS) regular season through the Chase, we'll take a look at the best Fantasy plays, as well as Futures and Wagers when applicable, to get you ready for the upcoming race week.

The MENCS shifts to Pocono Raceway for the Pocono 400, the first of two stops at the 'Tricky Triangle' this season. They'll also be back at the track for the Gander Outdoors 400 on July 29. This weekend's race goes off at 2:00 p.m. ET on FOX Sports 1.

His detractors likely do not want to see it, but Joe Gibbs Racing's Kyle Busch (3/1) is a serious threat to continue his assault on the rest of the field and win this weekend. According to NASCAR's Loop Data, Busch is No. 1 over the past five races at Pocono with a 111.7 Driver Rating, leading a circuit-best 197 laps during the span. He has 114 fastest laps during the stretch, too, making DFS players quite happy in that category. Rowdy has run 88.5 percent of his Pocono laps in the Top 15 over the past five starts, posting a 14.2 Average-Finish Position (AFP). Those numbers are actually slightly skewed, however, as that factors in a 37th-place anomaly in the fall race in 2015. If you take that out, Busch is averaging a 7.0 AFP over his past four Pocono starts. He was impressive in practice, sweeping both sessions, including a speed of 174.588 mph. Busch also won the Xfinity Series race in Pocono on Saturday afternoon for his 92nd career victory in that series. He is set to start fifth on Sunday.

Right on his heels, and stop me if you've heard this before, is Stewart-Haas Racing's Kevin Harvick (5/2). He is actually installed as the slight favorite by Vegas this weekend, and he has rattled off five consecutive Top 5 finishes at the Triangle, although he hasn't yet tasted victory. Loop Data shows him with a 101.0 Driver Rating over the past five races, knocked down by the fact he has managed just 19 laps led. Still, he is always right there, and he has posted four runner-up finishes across the past seven Pocono starts. Over his career he has no checkered flags at the track in 34 starts, but an impressive 13.0 AFP with 10 Top 5s, 15 Top 10s and 29 Top 20s, posting just three DNFs. He turned in a speed of 174.115 mph in practice, and he'll be on the outside of Row 1 next to the pole sitter.
JGR's Erik Jones (25/1) doesn't have the history of the veterans, but he has dominated in his brief encounters at the track. In two starts last season he was third in the spring and eighth in the summer, posting a Driver Rating of 106.5. He dominated with 24 laps led, including 22 fastest laps, while running 90.7 percent of his laps inside the Top 15. As such, he represents a tremendous value at the betting window if you want to stray from the favorites. Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott (28/1) is another young driver who has been a quick study, posting a 13.8 AFP in four Cup starts at the track, including three Top 10s. In fact, his 51 laps led is fourth-best among any driver on the circuit since the Fall 2015 race. Jones will go off 25th, with plenty of opportunity to pick up Place-Different Points, while Elliott starts out 11th.

Furniture Row Racing's Martin Truex Jr. (6/1) is not listed among the Top 10 in Driver Rating over the past five starts at Pocono, and could be a big-time bust candidate. The New Jersey native has had his troubles at the track over the years, although he certainly showed well in 2017 with a sixth-place run in the spring, and a third-place finish in the second run. Many DFS players might shy away from him since he has just four Top 5s in 24 career starts with an underwhelming 15.5 AFP. However, that 4.5 AFP in his championship season of 2017 in two Pocono starts is mighty impressive. MTJ had no trouble in qualifying, either, as he'll start on the outside of Row 2.

Penske Racing's Joey Logano (18/1) has had mixed results at Pocono over the years. He is barely in the Top 10 in Driver Rating over the past five runs at the track, according to NASCAR's Loop Data. However, he is second on the circuit during the stretch with 152 laps led, including 44 fastest laps. Something always seems to go awry for the No. 22 at the track, as he has good numbers, but just one Top 5 over the past five starts while finishing 23rd or lower in three of the past four races at the Triangle. In 18 career starts, he has a win, but he also has just four Top 5s and a dismal 17.5 AFP in his career. Teammate Brad Keselowski (15/1) has been much less erratic than Logano. He has a win, eight Top 5s and 168 laps led in 16 career starts, while posting a 10.5 AFP. That's the best Average-Finish Position of any current driver with at least three career starts at the track.

The Penske driver who remains third as far as attention is concerned, Ryan Blaney (7/1), is getting attention at the betting window. He picked up his first-career Monster Energy Cup Series win last spring at Pocono. Unfortunately for bettors in the fall, he followed that up with a 30th-place stinker. Still, in four-career MENCS starts at Long Pond he has finished 11th or better while leading 10 laps. He is on the pole for Sunday's race after posting a best speed of 176.897 mph.

Roush-Fenway Racing's Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (125/1) spun out in practice, but he was able to keep his car off the wall and will not have to go to a backup machine. He is set to start 23rd this weekend. The driver of the No. 17 machine had a brutal 2015 season at Pocono, averaging a 41.5 AFP. However, he has been 18th or better over his past four starts at the track, posting a 15.0 AFP. While bettors won't be flocking to the window to bet him to win, DFS players have to like those numbers when filling out one of their final two roster spots since he comes on the cheap.

SHR's Kurt Busch (15/1) certainly doesn't get the attention that his younger brother does, although hey, the Las Vegas native did get to run the siren in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Capitals and his hometown Golden Knights. The elder Busch checks in seventh in Driver Rating over the past five starts at Long Pond, posting a 97.3 Driver Rating. That number might even be better if not for a 37th-place run in the Fall 2015 race, as he has a 7.0 AFP over the past four starts at the track, including a first-place showing in the Spring 2016 run. It was one of three career wins for Busch at the track.

Don't foget about JGR's Denny Hamlin (12/1) and Hendrick's Jimmie Johnson (50/1), either. Hamlin leads all active drivers with four career wins at the track, while the seven-time series champ Johnson has won three times at Pocono. The No. 11 has an 11.8 AFP in 24 career starts, including 10 Top 10s, and the No. 48 has rattled off 19 finishes inside the Top 10 in his 32 career starts while leading a circuit-best 738 laps.

 
Posted : June 3, 2018 8:33 am
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