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NASCAR: GEICO 500 Preview

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Friday, April 27, 2018 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : April 27, 2018 11:12 am
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It's almost May and Talladega is already upon us and of the nine races completed already, six have been won by two drivers winning three straight races in a row showing there's a major divide between the have's and have-nots -- have's as in having "good equipment". However, the three Kyle Busch wins certainly were more entertaining than Kevin Harvick's streak when he did it within the first four weeks of the season. Or at least that's the way I see it.

Perhaps I have a Busch bias because he's from Las Vegas, but I think I'm more at ease right now, or the past three weeks, knowing that other teams are slowly getting better and closer to that plateau Busch and Harvick are at. When Harvick was crushing the field early in the season, there wasn't much optimism that things would get better. And it also helps that since the Harvick run we've seen races on all three short tracks with only one race on a downforce track. Busch won at Texas, but it's quite possible we could see Harvick being dominant again when the series goes to the 1.5-mile layout at Kansas on May 12.

What we've seen in the past four races involving the short tracks is drivers like Clint Bowyer step up with his first win since 2012, as well as the entire Stewart Haas Racing stable of Fords. Kurt Busch has been extremely competitive and Aric Almirola looks like he's going to break through with a win soon in the No. 10 Danica Patrick used to drive. She has to hate seeing Almirola run in the top-10 every week when she only had seven top-10s in six Cup seasons. I still miss her, though.

The shorts tracks gave us some nice moments for Ricky Stenhouse to shine for Roush Fenway Racing and Darrell Wallace Jr. to show his Richard Petty Motorsports Camaro can be competitive since getting information shared by Richard Childress Racing this season. The Team Penske Fords have been strong every week as has Joe Gibbs Racing. But perhaps the best sign that things are turning around is Hendrick Motorsports finally showing some speed. They had two cars finish in the top-5 at Bristol a couple weeks ago.

Kyle Busch won three straight races in 2015, the season he won his only championship after missing the first 11 races due to a broken leg. The last time a driver won four straight was Jimmie Johnson during the 2007 Playoffs when he won one of his seven titles. But none of those streaks, including Harvick's this season, included a restrictor-plate win at Talladega Superspeedway's 2.66-mile, high banked layout. That's what Busch has to deal with this week in an attempt to make it four straight wins.

"It's definitely cool we've won three in a row," Busch said Saturday after winning for the fifth time at Richmond. "We did it a couple years ago, and now I don't know if you can shoot for four in a row. It's hard to go to Talladega with that much of a winning streak and think that you can go to Victory Lane, but we're going to go there anyway and give it a shot. We'll see what we can do... I think it's easier to win the Power Ball than to win at Talladega."

Yes, you're so right Kyle. It's wide open at Talladega where up to 35 drivers have a chance to win. It's random because of the volatility associated with racing at over 200 mph and getting four-wide sometimes. Busch has just one career win at Talladega (2008) and has averaged a 20th-place finish between 25 career starts on that beast of a track.

Despite the randomness, we have seen a pattern develop the last three seasons at Talladega with Ford winning the past five races there -- two each by Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. Stenhouse won this race last season for his first career win and he'd also win at Daytona in July, the other track requiring restrictor-plates.

Chevrolet broke up the Ford restrictor-plate party in the season-opening Daytona 500 where RCR's Austin Dillon cashed a lottery ticket paying out at 60/1 odds. Finishing second was the rookie Wallace who was 80/1. Look at the top-14 finish in the Daytona 500 as the perfect example of just how random plate racing is. Chris Buescher was fifth, Paul Menard sixth, Michael McDowell ninth, A.J. Allmendinger 10th, Almirola 11th (was leading on the last lap), Justin Marks 12th, Trevor Bayne 13th and David Gilliand 14th.

Wallace is definitely a driver to take seriously here with a wager and he's got a lot of confidence heading into his first Cup start at Talladega.

“You are just trying to be there at the end,” said Wallace Jr, who is 60/1 to win this week. “Talladega, and all the plate races, are about being in the best position at the end and having a car that is capable of getting to the lead. We really showed in the Daytona 500 that our Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 had everything we needed. We’re going to Talladega with a new car and we’re working hard to make sure we have the same performance.”

Along with Wallace as a legitimate contender, Buescher (100/1), Menard (100/1) and Almirola (30/1) should all be considered with a small wager. Almirola had top-five finishes in both Talladega races last season while driving the No. 43 and his only Cup Series win came at Daytona with the plates on in 2014.

When you go to the bet window to bet Sunday's Geico 500 at Talladega, just know that there is no wager that is a bad one until it officially loses. Any driver can win. Some drivers are better than others with the plates on, but it takes a lot of luck and also the ability to stay out of trouble during the race to be one of the drivers on the lead lap at the end. My advice is to stay away from driver match-ups because of the volatility and expand your odds to win betting with a few favorites, some mid-level choices and a few long shots and try to hit the lottery.

My random dart throw for this race landed on No. 12, so Ryan Blaney in the Penske Ford is my choice. It's not exactly the most scientific method for picking a winner, but I can live with it knowing some logical reason behind it as well. He led a race-high 118 laps in the Daytona 500 and finished seventh, so he should be just as good along with five-time Talladega winner Keselowski and two-time winner Logano.

If you've been reading the space for a while, you know I love Denny Hamlin in the plate races and I do here as well. He's led laps in his last eight Talladega races, which started with a 2014 win there. He won the 2016 Daytona 500 as well and has three Daytona Shootout wins as well. I bet him all the time because he's always around the top-five with a chance to win when the restrictor-plates are on.

Still, it's a crap shoot as always at Talladega, but drivers like Hamlin, Keselowski, Stenhouse, and Logano have a knack for the draft and seem to be playing with an edge others don't have.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (6/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (10/1)
5) #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (12/1)

By Micah Roberts

 
Posted : April 27, 2018 11:14 am
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Best Bets - Talladega
April 28, 2018
By Daniel Dobish

Each week during the Monster Energy Cup Series (MENCS) regular season through the Chase, we'll take a look at the best Fantasy plays, as well as Futures and Wagers when applicable, to get you ready for the upcoming race week.

The MENCS moves to Talladega Superspeedway for the GEICO 500 on Sunday. The race is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

It's time for the second stop of the season on a restrictor-plate track, and for betting and fantasy purposes it can be a bit f a crapshoot. Things will look great one minute, and then the 'big one' happens in the link of an eye to ruin a good day. However, just like most other track types, certain drivers excel at super speedways for a number of reasons. We'll analyze recent results, NASCAR Loop Data and other factors to give you the best chances to cash big this weekend.

Penske Racing's Brad Keselowski (5/1) is the favorite for Sunday's race, and it likely has to do with the fact he has come away with checkered flags in three of the past seven starts at the track. That includes the Alabama 500 last fall when he won a crash-marred race while averaging 131.677 mph, the slowest average speed in a Talladega race since April 2004. For whatever reason, Keselowski seems to be able to avoid trouble where others are collected in the mess. While he had a 38th-place finish in the fall race in 2016, he has been in the Top 10 in five of the past seven starts at the track. He's about as good a bet as there is this weekend. Loop Data shows him with a 104.4 Driver Rating over the past five starts, leading a circuit-best 174 laps while posting an Average-Finish Position (AFP) of 10.2.

Keselowski's teammate Joey Logano (8/1) has also had some success at the track, and he'll be one to watch. However, he has been a bit more erratic over the past five starts, posting two wins and three Top 5 finishes, but also runs of 25th and 32nd during the stretch. And while it simply might be coincidence, he is averaging a 31.4 AFP over his past five spring races and a 6.6 AFP across his past five fall runs. He has wins in Oct. 2015 and Oct. 2016 at the track, learning very quickly from his missteps in the spring races. Ford has rolled to Victory Lane in each of the past five starts at the track, and eight of the past 11 races at the superspeedway.

Penske's Ryan Blaney (12/1) is new to the Penske stable, but he fits right in with what the team is trying to do at Talladega. Over the past five starts at the track he ranks 10th with an 85.4 Driver Rating. While he has been a bit erratic with a 24.0 AFP, he has led 30 laps while posting 13 fastest laps. He has four finishes inside the Top 20 over his past six starts, and that's running inferior machinery. In a Penske Ford he is a serious threat to roll to Victory Lane if he can negotiate his way through the field and avoid trouble.

Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott (12/1) doesn't have a lengthy MENCS history at the track, but he has been very successful. In four Cup starts at the track he has posted a Driver Rating of 93.5, third-best among all drivers across the past three seasons. He has run 78.4 percent of his laps inside the Top 15, leading 62 laps while turning in eight fastest laps. Teammate Jimmie Johnson (20/1) has struggled this season, but he is always a strong play at the track. He has turned in an 86.4 Driver Rating over the past five starts, seventh-best among all drivers. He has turned in 10 fastest laps over the five-race span while running 72.5 percent of his laps inside the Top 15. He has won twice at the track, but he hasn't been to Victory Lane since winning the Aaron's 499 in April 2011.

Roush Fenway Racing's Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (14/1) was the winner in last spring's Talladega run, posting an average speed of 145.669 mph. He has turned in an 86.2 Driver Rating over the past five starts at the Alabama run, leading 28 laps in the process. The RFR driver tends to wait in the back on the pack waiting to strike late, trying to keep himself out of trouble until it's time to go. As such he has run just 53.2 percent of his laps inside the Top 15. Three of his past five starts at the track have resulted in Top 10 runs, and he has been 16th or better in seven of his past nine starts at 'Dega.

Joe Gibbs Racing's Kyle Busch (12/1) has posted three consecutive victories, and he has a more-than-good chance of making it four in a row at Talladega. NASCAR's Loop Data shows him fourth among all drivers across the past five starts, posting a 90.3 Driver Rating with 77 laps led, including 16 fastest laps. He has posted a 14.6 AFP over the stretch, too. Teammate Denny Hamlin (15/2) hasn't been to Victory Lane since the spring 2014 race at Talladega, but he has managed a 87.2 Driver Rating over the past five starts to check in sixth among all drivers. He has turned in a 17.6 AFP during the five-race span.

Ganassi Racing's Jamie McMurray (40/1) avoided serious injury in a practice wreck on Friday, but he did tumble more than seven times in his car and he'll obviously need a backup car on Sunday. He has been a nice sleeper on plate runs, and Jamie Mac has posted a fourth-place finish in the spring of 2016 and a runner-up finish in the 2017 run. He also picked up checkers in the Fall 2013 race. Teammate Kyle Larson (20/1) hasn't been to Victory Lane at Talladega yet, but he is a serious threat to do so. After some uneven results in his first few attempts at the track, he has been sixth, 12th and 13th over his past three starts.

Other sleeper this weekend include Paul Menard (40/1), as he has posted an AFP of 11.3 over his past three starts at the track. Gray Gaulding (Field - 20/1) impressed in his first two Cup starts at 'Dega last season, running 20th in the spring race while turning in a career-best ninth-place finish in the fall run. Ty Dillon (Field - 20/1) is also a driver to watch, posting 13th- and 11th-place finishes last season in his first Cup tries at Talladega. And of course his brother Austin Dillon (50/1) won at the first plate track when he rolled to a victory at the Daytona 500. He struggled at 'Dega last season with a 32.5 AFP, but he posted a 6.0 AFP in two runs during the 2016 season. Aric Almirola (25/1) is a sleeper to watch, posting three consecutive Top 10 finishes. He has averaged a 5.7 AFP during the impressive three-race span.

Furniture Row Racing's Martin Truex Jr. (20/1) might look rather tempting at this low price, but he has struggled at the track in recent seasons. His past three 'Dega starts have resulted in a 32.7 AFP, so he is a high-priced option you should avoid.

 
Posted : April 28, 2018 8:36 am
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