NASCAR: Pennzoil 400 Preview

We're having our 21st straight season of NASCAR Cup Series racing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but it's the first time the city can say Sunday's Pennzoil 400 is the first of two Cup races on the season. The second race, The South Point 400, will kick off the Playoffs on Sept. 16.

Last year's Vegas Cup weekend had $191 million worth of economic impact to the city, and it's been as high as $240 million in the past, so getting two races is going to be a huge boost for entire town.

Las Vegas doesn't need much help in getting folks to town, but the typical NASCAR fan has a larger worth to the casino than the average visitor. They've come to Las Vegas to see NASCAR as an excuse to let loose, party and gamble a little and they come flush with cash, too. It reflects in the ledgers every time they leave. They also tip well, which the bartenders, waiters, bellman and dealers very much appreciate.

Sunday's race will also be the largest bet NASCAR race of the season for Las Vegas sports books, and the second-most bet -- The Daytona 500 -- isn't even close. It's about four-times more action for the Vegas race, which has only been open for wagering the week of compared to the long shelf life of Daytona odds that was first posted in December. The second Vegas race, during football season, will now likely be the second most bet race of the season.

Before you go wagering, let me offer some advice. You want to bet a few drivers to win and you want to bet a few match-ups, but do some homework first. Don't simply bet your favorite driver. That's your money. Buy a hat as a fan, but wager your hard earned cash with the intent on winning rather than hoping to cash a lottery ticket.

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There's only 22 of the 36 drivers that have a legitimate chance of winning so don't be that guy that bets Cole Whitt at 1,500/1 odds because "anything can happen". This isn't Daytona where maybe 35 drivers could win and all cars were equal. The 1.5-mile Las Vegas layout is conquered by the elite teams every year.

Check out the results from last week at Atlanta, the 1.5-mile sister track of LVMS. For the second straight year Kevin Harvick dominated. He led more laps last season, but Sunday's run was an epic performance. He was using chassis that won at Texas in November and was unmatched. On one fuel run he had to start from the rear of the lead lap cars, about 18 ahead of him, and within 40 laps had retaken the lead.

You come in with knowledge that Harvick won at Las Vegas in 2015, but that was Chevy. Last season in his first driving a Ford he was involved in an accident and finished 38th at Las Vegas, a week after leading 292 of 325 laps at Atlanta. Who knows how good Harvick would have been in that race. In 17 career LVMS starts he has a 14.8 average finish and has led 224 laps.

What's more important with Harvick for this race is how he finished the playoffs on 1.5-mile tracks. He had top-fives in four of the five races on 1.5s. Not much changed on the cars from last season and then he goes and does what he did Sunday at Atlanta.

It wasn't only Harvick that was good, it was the entire Stewart Haas Racing team with Clint Bowyer (3rd), Kurt Busch (8th) and Aric Almiorla (13th) all showing speed over the weekend. Busch, the Las Vegas native, should have a edge, but he's never won in any series on the 1.5-mile layout.

“It never translated to a home-field advantage,' Busch said. "I’ve always struggled at Las Vegas. I’ve qualified well but just haven’t raced that well. I’m looking to turn that around. There’s no sense in having the fast laps at the beginning if you can’t back them up at the end. And to get the second weekend, that’s huge for Las Vegas. To kick off the NASCAR playoffs in Las Vegas, it will be hot – be forewarned – and it will be a new, exciting feel for our sport. I’m really happy for the track and the town to have two dates.”

Busch is definitely a driver to consider this week at 30/1 odds. Bowyer too.

Then there was everyone else. Two-time Vegas winner Brad Keselowski had his Penske Ford dialed in and finished second and his teammates fared well too. Joey Logano was sixth and Ryan Blaney was 12th.

The Joe Gibbs Toyota was strong at Atlanta as well with Denny Hamlin (4th), Kyle Busch (7th), Eric Jones (11th) and Daniel Suarez (15th) looking just as good as they did in the playoffs on these tracks. Kyle Busch is going to run the Truck race Friday night, the Xfinity race Saturday and the Cup race Sunday. It's the first time Las Vegas has ran all three series in a weekend and they'll do it again in September.

Gibbs affiliate driver Martin Truex Jr. won at Las Vegas last season. He won on seven of the 11 1.5-mile tracks last season on his way to the season championship. Yes, that's an all-time NASCAR record. He was fifth Sunday at Atlanta.

“No question we had some special moments in Las Vegas last year,” Truex said. “The victory was a confidence booster to our team. It not only took the pressure off for making the playoffs but it also showed that we had some strength at the mile-and-a-half tracks.

“But the win and everything that happened during Champion’s Week in Las Vegas was last year and we don’t dwell, focus or gloat on past accomplishments. Right now we are 100 percent committed to getting back to Victory Lane. The focus is as high as it has ever been.”

Those are the guys you should key on this week. They all have a chance. You'll notice I didn't mention a single Chevy driver. They were all junk at Atlanta. The new Camaro body design looks sweet, but it's certainly a downgrade on these tracks compared to the SS Chevy used last season. Kyle Larson was the best Chevy finisher at Atlanta with ninth-place followed by Chase Elliott in 10th.

“Vegas is kind of interesting," said Elliott who finished third in Vegas last year. "The track has become a little bit temperature sensitive and sunshine sensitive. It has a lot of speed when it’s cool and it has a lot of speed when it can be warm, but the fall-off is pretty massive. I think that was kind of a topic of conversation I heard from the test is how quickly the tires were falling off and so on. I’m curious to see where all that stacks up weather-wise next weekend.”

Elliott was horrendous during practices and qualifying, but as Sunday's race went on his team worked hard on the car each pit stop to get a top-10 finish.

The positive for the Chevy drivers this week is that four weeks ago they were fastest in all four sessions during two days of testing at LVMS. Larson was fastest in three of them and rookie William Byron was fastest in the other.

Still, I'll have to see something drastically change in Saturday's practice to bet a Chevy in anything this week. Four-time Vegas winner Jimmie Johnson isn't even attractive to me this week.

“This Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 is a brand new car to us," said Johnson. "I am very proud of my team for all their efforts last weekend in Atlanta, they worked really hard. We all know it was not even close to the result we were looking for. The pit crew got some reps with plenty of four tire stops and we learned a lot. We have a lot of smart people on our team, so I’m not hitting the panic button. I posted this on Twitter: fear has two meanings – “Forget Everything And Run” or “Face Everything And Rise.” I’m ready to rise.”

I'm sticking with Kevin Harvick. He's one of the eldest drivers in the circuit now at 42, which I like. He's also from Bakersfield, CA just like Buck Owens and Merle Haggard, which I like. It seems like yesterday I saw him win a Winston West Series Vegas race and Championship in 1998. Two weeks after making his Cup debut in 2001, he got married in Las Vegas during race week. Wednesday is Kevin and Delana Harvick's 18th anniversary. He's in a great state of mind this week from all angles. But most of all, his car is expected to be freaky fast, again.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)
2) #41 Kurt Busch (30/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (15/1)
5) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (9/2)

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The next leg of the Monster Cup series is the Pennzoil 400, whikch runs out of the Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, March 4th. We have odds up on the field, which was recently locked and it’ll be interesting how the next stop on the NASCAR tour pans out after a pair of raucous races in Daytona and Atlanta kick started the season.

You can skip straight to the Motor Sports Futures board here.

The oddsmakers are booking Kevin Harvick in as the +500 favorite to win the Pennzoil 400, which makes since given his nail biting win in Atlanta last weekend. However, there’s a pretty steadfast rule in NASCAR betting that suggests banking on a back-to-back winner is not a great idea. If you think Harvick can string together successful outings, then by all means bet on him. It’s your money after all.

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Harvick is being hounded at the top of this board by the usual suspects. Brad Keselowski is parked at +600 alongside Martin Truex Jr., who are both just inches in front of Kyle Busch at +650 and Kyle Larson’s +700 odds. Keselowski is the bet amongst these five drivers, including Harvick, simply given that he finished second last weekend and is inarguably one of the best on the planet.

One of the biggest reasons to lean in on Keselowski is that he loves this race, and is usually a top performer earlier in the season anyways. He won the Pennzoil 400 in both 2014 and 2016. If you’re curious as to why Truex Jr.’s odds are this high, it’s because he’s the defending champion from last year.

If you’re looking for a salty longshot to ride with then look no further than Denny Hamlin at +1600. The 37-year old veteran has been performing extremely well despite crashing out last weekend. He finished third in the Daytona 500 and fourth in the Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500 last weekend. A tighter distance this weekend could very well be in Hamlin’s favor, and he’s certainly worth a look given his consistency.

While Keselowski and Hamlin represent a great combo, NASCAR fans surely have their eyes on other big names like Chase Elliott and Ryan Newman to spoil the party. Check out the full board below for the Pennzoil 400:

Odds to Win 2018 NASCAR Pennzoil 400 (3/4/18)
Driver Odds
Kevin Harvick 5/1
Brad Keselowski 6/1
Martin Truex Jr. 6/1
Kyle Busch 13/2
Kyle Larson 7/1
Chase Elliott 10/1
Joey Logano 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 12/1
Denny Hamlin 16/1
Ryan Blaney 20/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Kurt Busch 25/1
Erik Jones 33/1
Aric Almirola 33/1
Daniel Suarez 50/1
Paul Menard 66/1
Alex Bowman 80/1
Ryan Newman 80/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
William Byron 100/1
Kasey Kahne 150/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 200/1
Trevor Bayne 200/1
Darrell Wallace Jr. 200/1
Ty Dillon 200/1
Chris Buescher 200/1
AJ Allmendinger 200/1

Each week during the Monster Energy Cup Series (MENCS) regular season through the Chase, we'll take a look at the best Fantasy plays, as well as Futures and Wagers when applicable, to get you ready for the upcoming race week.

The MENCS heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway this week for the Pennzoil 400, scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.

Penske Racing's Ryan Blaney (20/1) is on the pole for Sunday's race, as he looks to get his team on the board after victories by Richard Childress Racing's Austin Dillon (100/1) at Daytona and by Stewart-Haas Racing's Kevin Harvick (5/1) in Atlanta. While Dillon is considered a long shot at LVMS, Happy is considered the favorite. According to NASCAR's Loop Data, Harvick ranks sixth among all drivers over the past five years in Vegas with a driver rating of 101.0. He has turned in 166 laps led, including 139 fastest laps, while running 78.5 percent of his laps inside the Top 15. While it isn't quite as dominant as his recent run in Atlanta, it's impressive nonetheless. Harvick will go off second on Sunday.

Getting back to Blaney, he has rather moderate odds, but could fetch a nice payday. He has made three Cup starts at Vegas, posting a driver rating of 89.0 to check in 10th among all drivers during the span. While he has never led a MENCS lap at the track, that should change as he leads the pack out when the green flag drops. He has posted an Average-Finish Position (AFP) of 10.7 across his three starts, recording finishes of sixth, 10th and 19th. Blaney's teammates Brad Keselowski (6/1) and Joey Logano (12/1) are high on the board, too. In fact, Keselowski leads all drivers with 121.1 driver rating over the past five seasons, running 94.4 percent of his Vegas laps inside the Top 15. In nine career Cup starts at LVMS, he has a pair of checkered flags, four Top 5 finishes and an AFP of 15.4. Logano is even better, posting a 10.0 AFP in nine career starts. While he has never won at Vegas, he has three Top 5s, five Top 10s and he has finished outside of the Top 20 just once, leading a total of 171 laps. Kes starts eight, while Logano will go off 10th, and each has a solid opportunity to pick up positive Place Differential points.

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It has been a challenging start to the 2018 season for Hendrick Motorsports, particularly for seven-time Cup champion Jimmie Johnson (12/1). He wrecked three cars during Speed Weeks in Daytona, posting a disastrous 35th-place run in the 500, while returning last weekend to wind up a marginal 22nd in Atlanta. He could quickly change his fortunes in the desert, however. The No. 48 checks in second among all drivers over the past five Vegas stops with a 113.7 driver rating, leading all drivers with 240 laps led during the span. He has run 83.0 percent of his laps inside the Top 15, posting an AFP of 13.4. Overall he has four victories in 16 career Cup starts at the track, running inside the Top 5 on six occasions, with nine Top 10s and 595 laps led, most among all active drivers. His 10.9 AFP in 16 career starts is also best among all racers with at least 10 starts at the track.

Joe Gibbs Racing shouldn't be counted out at LVMS, either. Denny Hamlin (16/1) ranks outside the Top 10 over the past five years at Vegas in terms of Driver Rating, but he still checks in fourth with a 12.2 AFP in 12 career starts, including 11 finishes inside the Top 20. Despite his immense success and steady production, he has led just 14 total laps in his career at the track, so there might be better fantasy options to be had. One of them could be teammate and Las Vegas native Kyle Busch (13/2). He got an early lay of the land, scouting out the track en route to his 50th career Camping World Truck Series victory on Friday night. He has just one Cup win in his hometown, but a solid 14.1 AFP with five Top 5s and nine Top 20s while leading the pack for 230 laps. Loop Data shows Rowdy with a 106.8 Driver Rating over the past five years, running 88.0 percent of his laps inside the Top 15.

Kyle's older brother, SHR's Kurt Busch (25/1) has some moderate odds to win, but he could be one to watch. The Vegas native finds himself outside of the Top 10 in terms of Driver Rating over the past five seasons. Half of his starts have resulted in Top 20 finishes, but he has a rather marginal 21.8 AFP. Still, the No. 41 Ford was among the fastest in practice and qualifying sessions, and he will go off third on Sunday after recording a top speed of 190.067 mph. He is running hot so far, too, finishing a respectable 11th at Daytona while checking in seventh last weekend at the Atlanta race, leading 52 laps at the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.

Furniture Row Racing's Martin Truex Jr. (6/1) is third among all drivers with a 110.8 Driver Rating over the past five Vegas stops, running an amazing 95.6 percent of his laps inside the Top 15. He has led 153 laps during the span, while posting a 7.2 AFP. Overall the defending champ has managed a win, four Top 10s and 11 Top 20s in 12 career Cup starts, ending up with a solid 13.2 AFP. MTJ will go off from the outside of Row 2 as he searches for his first Top 20 finish of the season. He rolled to a mediocre 24th at DIS, and 35th at Atlanta, leading just five total laps so far.

If you're looking for a low-cost sleeper with big payback potential, check out Leavine Family Racing's Kasey Kahne (150/1) in the No. 95 Chevy. While he is racing in much more inferior equipment than his days in a Hendrick machine, he is still an interesting option. In 14 career starts he has never won at Vegas, but he has three Top 5s with half of his starts resulting in a Top 10. He also checks in seventh among all active drivers with a 13.4 AFP, leading 172 laps. Loop Data shows Kahne seventh with a 99.4 Driver Rating across his past five Cup starts at LVMS. While he doesn't quite have as long of odds as Kahne, Erik Jones (33/1) is an intriging play. He is making his second-career Cup start at Vegas, looking to improve on his 15th-place start from last season. Jones will go off from the ninth position on Sunday.

RCR's Ryan Newman (80/1) is also considered a longshot, but he could be a nice low-end fantasy option this weekend given his past history. In 17 career Cup starts at Vegas he has finished inside the Top 20 on 12 different occasions, posting a 16.2 AFP. While he has never won, he has led the pack for 112 laps and come in as high as third. There is a little risk, as he is tied for most DNFs among active drivers (2). Wood Brothers Racing's Paul Menard (66/1) is also worth keeping an eye on, as he ranks 16th among active drivers with a 16.7 AFP. In 11 career starts, he has three Top 10s and just three finishes outside of the Top 20. While he isn't a great bet to take checkers, he's a solid low-end fantasy sleeper.

By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com