Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, February 25, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Everything you saw during Daytona Speedweeks has absolutely nothing to do with what we're going to see in this Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
The set-ups are night and day between the four restrictor-plate races and what we'll see in the 11 races on 1.5-mile track this season. At Daytona and Talladega, any driver can win, but tracks like Atlanta show the real divide between the elite and cheap teams.
The perfect example of the differences is looking at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's odds to at Daytona on Darrell Wallace Jr. at 50/1 compared to his 300/1 odds offered at Atlanta. The No. 43 may have made the switch to Chevrolet this season using ECR engines, but they're still light years away from winning on an intermediate track.
Not much has changed on the cars in 2018, with the exception of the new Chevrolet Camaro body. So we're likely going to see a lot of what we saw in the last third of the 2017 season, which means more Martin Truex Jr.
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“After how we ran in Daytona, we are definitely looking forward to going to a downforce track,” said Truex, who finished eighth last week. “While Daytona is the biggest and most prestigious race to win, the season actually starts – at least in our case – at a downforce track. Atlanta should give us a good indication how we fare against the competition.”
Last season Truex won seven of the 11 races on 1.5s on his way to the championship. In the four races he didn't win on these tracks, he finished second at Texas and led the most laps, third at Charlotte and led the most laps and while coming in eighth place at Texas in the spring and Atlanta.
“We not only had one of the fastest cars all the time, we executed well, qualified well and got those stage points early,” explained Truex. “I just feel like across the board, from our whole team’s perspective, we executed really well. We didn’t make many mistakes. We didn’t give anybody an opportunity to pounce. There were times where guys were as fast as us and there were times when guys were faster, but they weren’t more consistent.”
While acknowledging that Truex is the best on 1.5s, also keep in mind that he's never won at Atlanta in 19 career starts. He's got two top-five finishes with an 18th-place average finish over that span. Still, he's the well-deserved 9/2 favorite (Bet $100 to win $450) to win the race.
Truex’s crew chief, Cole Pearn, is also looking forward to Atlanta.
“Obviously Atlanta is the first real test to know where you’re at and where you stack up with everybody so it’s a pretty important race,” said Pearn. “It’s a cool track, and at the same time, really different. It has super low grip with old worn out pavement.”
Perhaps it's that old pavement that every driver seems to love that has been the issue for Truex compared to other similar tracks.
Brad Keselowski won this race last season, but Team Penske's 1.5-mile program dramatically fell off after the May race at Kansas. Keselowski didn't have a top-five finish in his final seven starts on 1.5s. Neither did his teammate Joey Logano, who went eight straight. This will be a huge indicator to see if Ford and Penske got its stuff together. New teammate Ryan Blaney falls into the same category of waiting to see what happens in practice this weekend. Be skeptical of Penske until then. Note: There is only one practice session on Saturday.
Jimmie Johnson is the active leader with five Atlanta wins over 26 starts where he's averaged an 11th-place finish. However, Johnson's performances on 1.5s fell off following his Texas win in April -- no top-5 finishes in his last eight starts on 1.5s. However, the worn surface is something he handles well and has an edge with over all the youngsters.
"The track is such a challenge for both the drivers and the teams," said Johnson. "I’m stoked they decided not to repave it just yet – that was a popular decision among the drivers. The surface is so abrasive that the tire falloff is so great, you will see us pitting halfway through a fuel run just to gain four or five seconds. I can’t wait to get there and slide around on the track.”
His 12/1 odds are very attractive.
Johnson's Hendrick Motorsports' teammate Chase Elliott hails from Georgia and he's been outstanding in his first two Cup starts on his home track.
"Atlanta will always be a special place for me," said Elliott who is 8/1 to win. "I remember watching the races from the playground as a kid in the driver/owner lot. Haven’t raced a ton here, but I was able to get the pole in 2014 in the Xfinity Series. I would love to make some more memories to go down in the book at Atlanta."
Elliott was fifth last season and eighth during his rookie year. He had top-five finishes in five of his last six starts on 1.5s. No wins yet, but it's going to happen soon. It's just a matter of time, and being at home would make it so appropriate to happen this week.
In Kevin Harvick's third career Cup start in 2001, he won at Atlanta for his first win. It was only three weeks after he took over the No. 3 when Dale Earnhardt passed away at Daytona and changed the car number to No. 29. Last season Harvick finished the season on a tear on these tracks with top-five finishes in four of his final five attempts, including a Texas win. He also dominated this Atlanta race last season leading 292 laps before getting a pit road speeding penalty on his last pit stop.
Something to also consider into handicapping this week is checking out the testing speeds from three weeks at Las Vegas Motor Speedway's 1.5-mile layout. Kyle Larson was fastest in three of the sessions and Hendrick Motorsports rookie William Byron was fastest in another. Each team had a driver represented and they will share the information gained with their teammates.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #4 Kevin Harvick (9/2)
2) #9 Chase Elliott (8/1)
3) #42 Kyle Larson (9/2)
4) #78 Martin Truex Jr (9/2)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (12/1)
ALMOST TWILIGHT ZONE STUFF WITH NO. 10
As much as most of us wanted to see the No. 3 finally win at Daytona again, I couldn't help but feel some pain for Aric Almirola who was leading with half a lap to go until getting punted by Dillon. It wasn't even one of those "whoops, sorry" type of things. It was blatant, intended, on purpose and it's like he got a free pass because we all had No. 3 blinders on. What would you do to win the Daytona 500? Just about anything, right?
In that small moment with Almirola leading, I had several things immediately swirling through my head, such as Almirola's only career win being a rain shortened race at Daytona in July of 2014. I also thought about Stewart Haas Racing winning the Daytona 500 for the second consecutive year in almost the same fashion with the winner leading only one lap.
But the possible storyline that rung loudest for me with Almirola just before he got punted was that Danica Patrick drove the SHR No. 10 for the past six seasons and never had a top-five finish in 190 starts. Patrick got involved in a wreck earlier in what was her last race in NASCAR. Can you imagine her post-race emotions of her not only walking away from the sport after falling well short of everyone's expectations, but also watching her old car win the Daytona 500 in the first race without her? That would have been the cruelest goodbye in...The Twilight Zone.
BUBBA TRASH TALK TOO SOON
NASCAR’s season kicked off with a bang at Daytona they were hoping for in an era where the sport is trying its hardest to attract new fans. Rookie Darrell “Bubba” Wallace Jr., the first full time African-American driver since Wendell Scott in 1971, ended up finishing second in Richard Petty’s famed No. 43. Denny Hamlin would finish an inch behind him in third.
But amid his celebration after the Daytona race, he managed to take a few swipes at the veteran Hamlin, who he crashed with as they crossed the finish line together. And with his new found popularity with the press, he continued his discussions through Tuesday with a series of daily texts with Hamlin.
I'm hoping for Wallace to help signal a new age for NASCAR, but at the same time he also has to show some respect to the veterans. I think the whole Elliott-Hamlin feud from last year has given Wallace a reason to suggest Hamlin is an easy target to mess with. But the runner-up at Daytona is likely going to be Wallace's last hurrah until May at Talladega when the cars are all equal again like at Daytona. Right now, Wallace still drives the No. 43, which I can't remember the last time they were competitive at a 1.5-mile track.
The real learning experience for Wallace begins this week in a car not as good as the top 30 percent entered.
Each week during the Monster Energy Cup Series (MECS) regular season through the Chase, we'll take a look at the best Fantasy plays, as well as Futures and Wagers when applicable, to get you ready for the upcoming race week.
The MECS rolls into Atlanta Motor Speedway this week for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET. Unfortunately for race fans, there is an 80 percent chance for rain on Sunday, with a 100 percent chance of rain for Monday, mostly in the morning before clearing out. It wouldn't be shocking in the least to see this race moved to Monday afternoon.
When the green flag does drop Kevin Harvick (5/1) is the overwhelming favorite, and rightly so. Over the past five races at the venerable tri-oval Harvick has ruled the track, posting a 126.6 Average Driving Rating, leading 734 laps while posting 260 of the fastest laps. That's a stat DFS players will certainly want to pay close attention. He has run 97.0 percent of his laps inside the Top 15, posting an Average-Finish Position (AFP) of 9.0. Overall, he has won just once in 27 career starts, posting a 17.3 AFP with six Top 5s, 12 Top 10s and 17 Top 20s. Most of that success has come lately, however.
The pole-sitter will be Kyle Busch (8/1), his first-ever at AMS. Toyota will be looking for the bounce-back after a disappointing weekend at Daytona. Rowdy has 19 career starts under his belt at the track, winning twice while picked up five Top 5s with 423 laps led. He has struggled recently, running just 56.4 of his Atlanta laps inside the Top 15 over the past five years. His Driver Rating of 88.1 ranks ninth over the past five races at the track, so there is a lot more risk using Busch. His brother Kurt Busch (5/1) has three victories under his belt, and he has finished 46.2 percent of his starts at Atlanta (12 of 26) inside the Top 10, posting a 15.6 AFP overall. NASCAR's Loop Data shows him ranked sixth over the past five races with a 97.3 Driver Rating at the track.
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Penske Racing's Joey Logano (14/1) was the best finisher on his three-man team last week at DIS, but it was disappointing overall for the Penske Fords. Logano is nipping at the heels of Harvick with a 111.7 Driver Rating across the past five starts in Atlanta. Teammate Brad Keselowski (12/1) checks in fourth with a 99.4 Driver Rating over the past four AMS races. Logano has never won in 11 previous tries in Atlanta, but he has a respectable 17.6 AFP with six Top 10s and 162 laps led. Kes has won once in nine Atlanta starts, finishing in the Top 10 on five occasions. Logano will go off from the 16th position, and has a chance to rack up a very positive number in the Place Differential department. Keselowski will start on the inside of Row 3. Penske third wheel Ryan Blaney (25/1) showed well at Daytona last week before getting collected in a late dust-up. He has had marginal runs of 18th and 25th in his two previous Atlanta starts, but that was in inferior equipment, so he could be in line for his best-ever Atlanta performance and is therefore a nice fantasy sleeper.
Seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson (5/1) of Hendrick Motorsports couldn't get out of his own way last weekend, wrecking three cars. The No. 48 looks to rebound, and he has had a lot of success in the ATL. Johnson has won five times in 26 career Atlanta starts, turning in 14 runs in the Top 5 while leading all drivers with an 11.0 AFP (min. three starts). His results have been mixed over the past five Atlanta starts, running just 64.7 percent of his laps inside the Top 15, but he does have 146 laps led during the five-year span which is third among all active drivers.
Erik Jones (25/1) could be a nice sleeper for fantasy and betting purposes. He turned in a 14th-place finish in his rookie season of 2017 in Atlanta. Fellow MECS sophomore Daniel Suarez (50/1) will be looking to rebound after a wreck ended his day early at the 500. He was 21st last season in his first and only MECS start in Atlanta.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (66/1) is another driver to keep a close eye on. He turned in some outstanding speeds during practice, and he will go off sixth. He has never won in five career starts at the track, but he has four Top 20 finishes and is a nice mid-level DFS option. Darrell Wallace Jr. (100/1) made history last weekend with a runner-up finish, the best-ever MECS showing by an African-American driver. What can he do for an encore? This will be his first run in a Cup car at Atlanta, but he was sixth on the track in the Xfinity circuit last season.
Martin Truex Jr. (5/1) is listed as a co-favorite this weekend, but he failed to make a qualifying attempt. He failed to pass the Optical Scanning Station (OSS) three times during pre-qualifying inspection. His car chief has been booted for the weekend, and the defending champ will lose 30 minutes of practice time Saturday. MTJ will go off 35th and will have the matriculate his way up through the field. He could be attractice for fantasy purposes, as he is almost a guarantee to post plenty of Place Differential points. He is a much more dicey option when it comes to the betting window, however, given his low spot on the starting grid.
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
I really think this is going to be Ford's year. I think they have found a lot of power this season with so many more cars in the field and I think Toyota has taken a little step back. The Chevy's are really struggling especially the Hendrick cars and Gnassi cars. I think you can find some value each week this year in the Ford camp.
6 of the top 10 are Fords at the moment. Just sayin...
Two years ago it was the Chevys, last year the rice burners..so it has to be the Fords this year! I love the WWE and I didn't even get the news they sold out to that scum bag
Lol. Harvick's performance last night was one for the ages. How he was racing that track was nothing short of amazing. I've never seen someone make time like that getting off the gas where he was. I do agree these first two races do seem a little scripted.