Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, February 17, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Daytona 500 NASCAR betting preview: Need-to-know live long shots, odds analysis, the best angles and edges
Feb 15, 2018 |
By: Monty Andrews
Unlike most sports that save their biggest event as a Grand Finale, NASCAR opens its season with its most famous race. If you’re sizing up the Daytona 500 NASCAR betting odds this Sunday, here are some valuable tips and trends you’ll need to know to cash in on the “Great American Race”.
Fantastic favorites
Joey Logano (+1,200)
While Penske teammate Brad Keselowski is installed as the Daytona 500 betting odds favorite at +700, he wrecked his car with two laps remaining in Thursday's qualifying race. He'll start from the back of the pack and will need to rely on a backup car for Sunday's race, both of which could severely hamper his chances of winning. That puts Logano at the front of the pack. While he's bunched in with several other drivers at +1,200, he’s been one of the steadiest options in the early going and finished second to Keselowski at last weekend's Advance Auto Parts Clash at Daytona International Speedway. He's the man to beat.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,400)
If you're looking for the best driver in the field - regardless of make or model - it's this guy. Truex dominated the field last season, winning his first NASCAR series championship after earning eight checkered flags and finishing in the Top 10 a whopping 26 times. That said, it might take some guts to lay a big one on Truex, who finished 14th at last week's all-star exhibition and will start 24th on the grid for Sunday's race. Don't discount the guy in the No. 78 Toyota, however. He finished second in the Daytona 500 in 2016 and will be looking to improve upon his 13th-place showing last year.
Live underdogs
Ryan Blaney (+2,500)
It's no secret that Ford cars are dominant at restrictor-plate races, having won seven consecutive competitions and 16 of the past 28 races at Talledega and Daytona. And while Keselowski will generate plenty of attention despite starting at the back of the field, teammates Logano and Blaney are also expected to be in the hunt. Blaney is outside the Top-10 from an odds perspective, but claimed Thursday's qualifying duel race after finishing third in last weekend's Clash at Daytona. He'll start third on the grid Sunday, and has the car and the skills to be there at the end.
Alex Bowman (+2,800)
Bowman certainly doesn't have the pedigree of the drivers ahead of him in the NASCAR betting odds, but the 24 year old has something those guys don't: a spot on the pole for one of the most popular auto races of the year. Bowman extends Hendrick Motorsports' Daytona pole streak to four and, while teammates Jimmy Johnson and Chase Elliott will certainly garner most of the attention, the fact Bowman bested the field for top spot on the grid is notable. Bowman will need a little help - and plenty of luck - but he proved in qualifying that he has what it takes to tame Daytona.
Live long shots
Darrell Wallace Jr. (+6,000)
Wallace - the first African-American with a full-time NASCAR ride in 47 years - is the top long shot in Sunday's field, having earned the seventh spot on the grid following an impressive showing in Thursday's qualifying race. The 24 year old was one of the most consistent performers in the XFinity Series circuit last season, following up his 33rd-place showing at Daytona with five consecutive sixth-place finishes. He took part in four Monster Energy NASCAR series races midway through the season, posting three Top-20 results. He's clearly trending upward, and could make his biggest mark yet on NASCAR's largest stage.
Kasey Kahne (+6,600)
It has been a tumultuous time in NASCAR for Kahne, who kicks off the 2018 season with his fifth different team. The 37 year old will drive the No. 95 Chevy for Leavine Family Racing and will start 26th off the grid Sunday. Experience counts for something in "The Great American Race" and Kahne has that in abundance. This will be his 15th Daytona 500 race and, while he hasn't finished in the Top 5, he does have four Top-10 finishes. Will this be the year that Kahne finally finishes on top? It's unlikely, but he's at least worth a look given his pedigree and knowledge of the track.
If you're in the market for a online sportsbook, check out in-depth reviews of the best books and sign-up bonuses at OddsShark.com.
Betting news and notes
* It's the final Daytona 500 for one of NASCAR's most popular drivers. Danica Patrick has announced she will be retiring after competing at Daytona and Indianapolis. She's installed as a +8,000 long shot Sunday and will start from the 26th spot.
* The BK Racing team has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy but will be permitted to compete in the Daytona 500 after NASCAR declined to strip its ownership charter. Gray Gaulding is the team's lone driver in the race. He'll start 34th on the 40-car grid.
* Rickey Benton Racing is making the leap from NASCAR Trucks to the main circuit, making its Monster Energy NASCAR Series debut this weekend. RBR driver David Gilliland is a +12,500 long shot. He'll go off from the second-last spot on the grid.
* Denny Hamlin says his Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 is the fastest car he has ever had going into a Daytona 500. Hamlin, who will start second and is a +1,000 favorite to win, has four Top-4 finishes at Daytona - capped by his one and only victory in 2016.
Betting on history
* Trevor Bayne is the youngest driver to win the Daytona 500, taking the checkered flag in 2011 just one day after turning 20. But he has just one Top-10 finish at Daytona since then, and is installed at +4,000 on Bet365 to win this weekend.
* Kurt Busch is the defending Daytona 500 champion, but the odds of a repeat are firmly against him if past history is an indication. Only three drivers have won back-to-back races, most recently Sterling Marlin in 1994-95. Busch is +1,200 to repeat.
* Keselowski is up against it thanks to Thursday's wreck, but if he can pull out a win Sunday, he'll join some impressive company. Only five other drivers have completed the Clash-Daytona double. Hamlin was the last to do it in 2016.
* Ford has been the most successful manufacturer this decade, claiming four of eight Daytona 500 victories entering Sunday, including two of the last three. Chevrolet has three wins in that span, while Toyota triumphed in 2016 - its only Daytona win.
Trends to watch
* While certain drivers have an enormous advantage in restrictor-plate races - see the Ford cars as a solid example - these events do produce unpredictable results. Two dozen different drivers finished in the Top 10 in last year's four restrictor-plate races.
* Pole winners made up six of the 36 race winners in 2017. Kyle Larson (Auto Club 400, FireKeepers Casino 400), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (GEICO 500), Kyle Busch (Overton's 400, ISM Connect 300) and Truex (Hollywood Casino 400) all won from the pole.
* No defending NASCAR series champion this decade has won the Daytona 500 the following year, though four drivers have posted Top-5 finishes. Jimmie Johnson has raced three times as the defending series champ but didn't finish higher than 27th.
* Owning the pole position at Daytona has not necessarily been conducive to success in the race. Only nine drivers have won the race after starting at the front of the pack, and no driver has done it since Dale Jarrett back in 2000.
This fucking Xfinity race is about to put me to sleep. This is the most boring race I have seen in years. I hope tomorrow is like this. I bet NASCAR hopes so too
Bet the 60th Daytona 500
If there’s just room in your casual sports fan brain for one motor sport event, make sure that you bet the Daytona 500. This agonizingly long race will air on Sunday, February 18th with Fox serving as the broadcaster. You can check out the odds on our Motor Sports Futures board.
As the kickoff event to what promises to be another drama fueled NASCAR season, the Daytona 500 has it all, and perhaps the best part about it as a viewer is that it’s dumbed down a little for the newcomer. You don’t have to know a garborator from a carburetor to kick a few tall ones back and really sink your teeth in to the action.
People always say that they watch NASCAR for the crashes. Those people are animals, but the point is that there’s a certain unpredictability that comes with betting on these types of races. Crazy stuff almost always happens because the stakes are as high as the speeds these hunks of metal maintain around the oval. Drama usually follows.
So who are the best Daytona 500 bets? Well, usually the longshots pan out. At least, that’s how people like to bet this race in general. Spoiler alert: I’m not going to tell you to bet on Danica Patrick at +6600.
Advertisement
Despite the fact that he’s a longshot, we have to start our potential winners with the one and only Kurt Busch at +2200. The defending champion, who also happens to be the sport’s biggest villain, took advantage of the final four leaders ahead of him all losing gas. There was simply a lot of luck involved in Busch’s unexpected victory and for him to get another taste of milk, he’ll have to hope for some luck to happen again.
The big darkhorse that some of the handicappers are targeting is Paul Menard, a +2500 outsider who has seen his odds split in half in the last few days. Yes, his odds used to be +5000. Why the change? Menard got the nod for the No.21 Ford car and if you don’t know anything about NASCAR, just understand that it’s a really big deal to be behind that wheel. Menard isn’t a dark horse by any stretch, finishing fifth at the 2017 Daytona 500.
Brad Keselowski is the +700 favorite, and most will be rooting for him simply because he’s the best driver in the world and he’s never won the Daytona 500. There’s no doubt that Keselowski will have a target on his back, which is one of the reasons he always flames out in these races. It’s just hard for his team to protect him when competitors have 500 miles of opportunity to take him out whenever they please.
Kyle Busch is also favored, though at +800, and will also be searching for his first Daytona 500 win. Betting on either of the top two isn’t a bad idea. They’re rated that high for a reason. It’s just that the Daytona 500 has been a notoriously difficult race for these guys to win. If you’re going to sprinkle some money around, Busch is a better pick than Keselowski, but you better be hedging with some longshots.
However, right behind these two is Chase Elliott, the 22-year-old wonder kid of NASCAR. He’s by far the most popular driver out there, and is practically royalty in the sport already. A huge coronation could come for the +1000 Daytona 500 hopeful, and my money will ride with him.
Outside of that, I do like Menard at +2500 along with Jimmie Johnson, a +1600 edge play who has won this race two years in a row and will be out for revenge after blowing a tire last year.
Whomever you take, betting on NASCAR is the type of ridiculous fun that betting was designed for. Watching this race will give you a feel for the big players in the sport as NASCAR revs up another eventful season. If you’re looking to fill that football void, why not take a spin with some of the best drivers in the world?
Odds per BetOnline.ag
Daytona 500 Best Bets:
Chase Elliott +1000
Paul Menard +2200
Jimmie Johnson +1600