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Can-Am 500 Betting News and Notes

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Can-Am 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

You're going to look at Kevin Harvick's odds offered at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook this week and think there is an error somewhere, so let's get that notion out of the way right off the bat: Kevin Harvick is the 6-to-5 favorite (Bet $100 to win $120) to win Sunday's Cam-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Yes, as in +120, and that's not a match-up price. Those odds are to win the race against 39 other drivers.

The reason for such short odds this week is because he's owned the flat 1-mile layout of Phoenix over his career and he's going to have to win Sunday's Round of 8 finale if he wants a chance to move on to next weeks Championship Round at Homestead and the opportunity to win his second Sprint Cup title. Total desperation, and a great storyline to watch unfold throughout the race.

It's a tall task for any driver to 'have to win' when the chips are down, but Carl Edwards did it last week at Texas and Harvick himself did it at Phoenix in 2014 when he 'had to win' and then he went on to win his only championship a week later. This was on the Westgate crew minds when creating the odds on Monday. They've seen this movie before at Phoenix and it almost always ends the same way. This guy just doesn't get rattled, which is part of the odds equation.

But the main reason for the insanely low odds is that all he does at Phoenix is win.

Harvick has eight wins in 27 Phoenix starts, six of those coming in his past eight starts, including the March race when he led a race high 139 laps and beat Edwards by just 0.01 of a second. The Bakersfield, CA native has been crushing this track in all series since he first got into auto racing.

Jimmie Johnson and Edwards have already advanced to the Championship Round by virtue winning each of the past two races. If any of the other six drivers eligible to advance win Sunday, they'll advance. As it sits now, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch are tied in points and would advance. Matt Kenseth is 1-point behind and Denny Hamlin is 2-points behind. Harvick is down 18 points behind followed by Kurt Busch who is 34-points behind. Yes, Harvick could advance without winning if everyone else has some issues, but realistically, he has to win, as does Kurt Busch, to advance.

All of the eligible drivers have past wins at Phoenix.

The two Chase drivers that can coast without any worries have been the next best at Phoenix behind Harvick. Johnson has four wins and his 7.85 average finish and 15 top-fives are both better than Harvick, who has one more career start than Johnson. Edwards has two Phoenix wins, the last coming in 2013. Expect both of them to go out have some fun and try to win and keep Harvick and some of the other strong contenders out. If I'm either one of those guys, I don't want Kyle Busch, Kenseth or Harvick eligible to win the title at Homestead. By winning they would steal an automatic birth.

A great handicapping tool for Phoenix is to look at the five previous races on a similar flat tracks between New Hampshire, Richmond and of course March's Phoenix race. I would go as far to say that the results from September races at New Hampshire and Richmond are more relevant than the March Phoenix race just because it's more current.

Hamlin won at Richmond and Harvick won at New Hampshire which gives them a bit of an edge this week. Martin Truex Jr. actually led the most laps between both those races and since he's out of championship contention his goal will be to get his first Phoenix win and pad his stats by leading more laps and breaking a five-way tie for most wins (four) in the series this season.

However you look at it, the real question is whether or not you want to bet against Harvick. I certainly don't, but if you refuse to roll with the chalk, one of the four Gibbs drivers would be a nice choice.

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/5)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1)
3) #19 Carl Edwards (12/1)
4) #20 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)

 
Posted : November 8, 2016 5:31 pm
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Phoenix Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.

Who's HOT at Phoenix

• Kevin Harvick has won five of the last six races and has a 1.2 average finish in that span.
• Kurt Busch has finished in the top 10 in the last four races.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in five of the last six races.
• Kyle Busch, who led 75 laps in the spring, has finished fourth in his last two starts.
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in the last two races.
• Carl Edwards finished second in the spring to lower his average finish to 9.0 in three starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.
• Brad Keselowski has posted seven top 10s in the 10 races since the track was repaved/reconfigured.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Phoenix

• Along with Harvick, Edwards and Hamlin, Kasey Kahne is the only other winner since Phoenix was repaved and reconfigured among drivers entered in this weekend's race.
• Jimmie Johnson, a four-time winner on PIR's old configuration, won the pole and finished fifth last November in a rain-shortened race for his fourth finish of sixth or better in the last seven races.
• Rookies Chase Elliott (8th) and Ryan Blaney (10th) each finished in the top 10 in their first
Phoenix start in the spring.
• Matt Kenseth finished seventh in the spring after missing this event last year due to a suspension. He also has a 5.5 average finish in the two races in the Round of 8.
• Martin Truex Jr. has led the most laps (213) and is tied for the best average finish (5.0) in the last two races of the season.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Kevin Harvick

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Phoenix

Kevin Harvick has won five of the last six races at Phoenix and combined to lead 1,064 laps in that span. Ninety-three percent of his laps led in the six races have come in his five starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 841) that he led 139 laps en route to Victory Lane at PIR in the spring.

Joey Logano finished 18th in the spring to snap a streak of five consecutive top 10s at Phoenix. Logano, who is third on the Chase Grid, finished third in this event last year.

Chase Elliott finished eighth in his first Phoenix Cup start in the spring.

Matt Kenseth finished seventh in the spring for his third top 10 in six Phoenix starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. Last year, Kenseth missed this event when he served his final of a two-race suspension.

Carl Edwards came up just shy of scoring his third win at Phoenix in the spring after leading 65 laps. The finish was Edwards first top 10 in three track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. Edwards' last win at the 1-mile track came in the 2013 spring race when he drove for Roush Fenway Racing.

Ryan Blaney finished 10th in his first Phoenix Cup start in the spring.

Brad Keselowski finished 29th in the spring to snap a streak of finishes of ninth or better in seven of the previous eight races at Phoenix. Last year in this event, Keselowski led four laps and finished ninth.

Jamie McMurray finished second in the 2015 spring race for his best finish in 26 starts at Phoenix. The finish helped lower his average finish to 11.0 in the last three races, which ranks sixth among all drivers that races in all of those events in that span.

Denny Hamlin won the first spring race on Phoenix's new configuration in 2012. The win was one of six top 10s in the last nine races. Hamlin's 5.5 average finish in the last two races ranks third among drivers entered in this weekend's race.

Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 six times since Phoenix was repaved/reconfigured in 2011. Busch, who did not race in the 2015 spring race due to injury, has finished fourth in his last two starts. He led 75 laps from the pole in the spring. Busch's only Phoenix Cup win came back in 2005 on the old track surface when he drove for Hendrick Motorsports.

Kurt Busch has finished seventh or better in his last four Phoenix starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Busch does have one win on PIR's old surface/configuration in 2005 with Roush Fenway Racing.

Martin Truex Jr. finished seventh in the 2015 spring race for his third top 10 - first with Furniture Row Racing - since Phoenix was repaved/reconfigured. He's finished 14th in his last two starts.

Ryan Newman finished 39th in the spring after a crash to raise his average finish to 13.5 in his last six Phoenix starts. Newman won the 2010 spring race with Stewart-Haas Racing.

Jimmie Johnson is a four-time Phoenix winner, but has yet to take the checkered flag since the track was reconfigured and repaved in 2011. He won the pole and finished fifth in this event for his fifth top 10 in the last 10 races.

Aric Almirola finished 10th last year in this event for his only top 10 in 11 starts at Phoenix.

Kyle Larson has posted a 15.2 average finish at Phoenix. His 10th-place finish in the 2015 spring race is his best in five starts.

Kasey Kahne has posted a 24.0 average finish in his last two Phoenix starts. His last of three top 10s (fourth) in nine track starts with Hendrick Motorsports came in the 2015 spring race. Kahne's only win at PIR came in this event in 2011 - the first race since the track was repaved and reconfigured - with Red Bull Racing.

Greg Biffle scored his last of three top 10s since Phoenix was repaved/reconfigured in this event in 2014 - ninth. In his last three starts, Biffle has yet to finish inside the top 20.

AJ Allmendinger has posted a 20.0 average finish in four Phoenix starts with JTG Daugherty Racing. His last of two top 10s in 14 overall starts came in the 2011 fall race - the first on PIR's current surface/configuration - with Richard Petty Motorsports.

Austin Dillon is coming off his first top 10 (ninth) in five starts at Phoenix.

 
Posted : November 10, 2016 7:26 pm
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Arizona hosts Can-Am 500 on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com

The Round of 8 comes to a close when the Sprint Cup drivers compete in the Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway on Sunday. Last week, Carl Edwards stole the show at the AAA Texas 500. Edwards won the race with an average speed of 134.541 MPH, defeating runner-up Joey Logano. Edwards will now try to win a second race in a row, and he has won the Can-Am 500 before. He won this thing in 2010, but it is Kevin Harvick who has really dominated in Arizona throughout his career. Harvick has won this race four times (2006, 2012, 2013, 2014) and that is a record for most wins ever in this event. Harvick won behind the wheel of a Chevy, and that is something he has in common with last year’s winner, Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevy has 13 wins in this race, but Ford is closing in with 12 wins in this event. With that being said, let’s take a look at some of this weekend’s best values:

Kevin Harvick (6-to-1) - Kevin Harvick is coming off of a very solid showing at last week’s AAA Texas 500. Harvick finished in sixth in that race and easily could have won if things had broken just a bit different. He now comes to a track that has been insanely kind to him in his career. As previously mentioned, Harvick has won the Can-Am 500 four times in a row, and last year snapped a three-year winning streak in the race. He wasn’t far off last year, either. He finished in second, so it’s clear he is a force to be reckoned with in Avondale. At 6-to-1, you should feel more than comfortable putting a few units on Harvick.

Joey Logano (8-to-1) - Joey Logano has been on a tear recently, as he finished in second at last week’s AAA Texas 500 and had been driving well before that too. Logano won the Hellmann’s 500 three races ago and followed that up with a ninth place finish at the Goody’s Fast Relief 500. Prior to winning the Hellman’s 500, Logano had come in third at Kansas. He has been right near the top of the leaderboard for most the season, and he’ll be hungry to win on Sunday. Logano finished in third in this race a year ago, so a win is definitely coming soon. At 8-to-1, it’s a good time to take a chance on it happening this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson (12-to-1) - Nobody has been as good as Harvick has been at Phoenix International Speedway, but Johnson is pretty close. Johnson has won this race three times in his career (2007, 2008, 2009) and he would love to get back into the winner’s circle on Sunday. He is currently tied for first in the Chase Standings with Logano and Kyle Busch, so a win would really be big for him this weekend. It helps that he is driving well recently, as he should be feeling confident coming into this event. And while Johnson hasn’t won this race since 2009, he did come in fifth last year. He still knows the track well and is a good bet to come out on top at 12-to-1.

Kasey Kahne (40-to-1) - Kasey Kahne is an interesting darkhorse coming into this race, as he won this event back in 2011 and has been driving well recently. Kahne has finished inside the top 10 in eight of the past 10 races and one of those was a third-place finish at the Bank of America 500. Not only has Kahne won in Avondale, but he also happens to have two other top-five finishes in this race in his career. At 40-to-1, it’s worth taking a flier on somebody with this track record in one place.

 
Posted : November 13, 2016 1:04 pm
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