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Apache Warriors 400 Betting News and Notes

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Apache Warriors 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Alright, it's Playoff elimination time in NASCAR. We've got to say goodbye to four drivers after Sunday's Apache Warrior 400 at Dover International Speedway's one-mile, high-banked, concrete layout. It's the final race of the Round of 16 and only four drivers are assured of advancing leaving the other 12 drivers scrambling with different strategies to stay alive.

For Austin Dillon, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne, they're going to have to run a great race this week while also having some luck go their way. They're the last four on the chopping block. They could take care of business by winning a race and automatically qualify for the next round, but with the way the balance of the series has shifted so dramatically to a few stout cars, that doesn't seem likely.

Four drivers have already qualified for the next by virtue of wins in the first two races of this round -- Martin Truex Jr. at Chicagoland and Kyle Busch at New Hampshire -- and two other drivers -- Kyle Larson (2,125 points) and Brad Keselowski (2,106) -- have clinched by accumulating enough points.

In the first Dover race of the season in early June, Larson finished second and Truex was third. They've been dominant like that almost everywhere. But a surprise top-five contender was Newman (2,043) in fourth-place and he could use another solid run like that and he's only two points behind the 12th-place transfer position. Chase Elliott finished fifth, his third straight top-five at Dover in his first three Cup starts there. He's sitting ninth in points (2,070).

The driver quietly sitting seventh in points is seven-time Cup champion Jimmie Johnson (2,076) and he's trending poorly lately. What happened? His last top-five finish was 16 races ago when he captured his then-series leading third win of the season. That win happened to be at Dover and it was his track record 11th win on the high-banked one-mile concrete layout. The champ has led a track-record 3,100 laps in 31 starts. That is domination at all stages of his career.

“Dover, hands down, is one of my favorite tracks," Johnson said. "It suits my driving style as well as the team in how they build and set up the cars. We have had so much success over the years at Dover, I wish we raced there every weekend. I can’t wait to get in that race car.”

The only problem with taking him here is that his car is running like an also-ran, not a champion. He held an early edge to grab three early season wins, but I have no explanation for his recent demise other than everyone else got a lot better. He's not in Truex or Larson's class, nor Kyle Busch's, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth or Keselowski's. but still, his history there is hard to ignore.

Proof that Johnson would have his car dialed in for Dover is that he won at Bristol five weeks earlier. Even though Dover is twice the size of Bristol, the concrete, banking and grooves make it similar to the point that several teams use the same set-up and same exact chassis for each if having success.

Kyle Busch won the most recent Bristol race last month and I think that's the angle to first approach here. He's won twice at Dover over his Cup career and has been runner-up in the fall race the past two seasons.

“Dover, being a concrete track, is challenging," Busch said. "They’re all a challenge, but Dover is especially so, just because of the way you have to run around that place. The way tires sometimes wear out. The way the rubber gets put down there. You’ve got to be fast through the corner. Two-thirds of your lap time is through the turns rather than down the straightaway, so you definitely have to make sure you have a good handling racecar – one that’s good in the beginning of the run on low air pressures and one that’s good at the end of the run on high air pressures, and even through traffic, too. Some of the most challenging times are when you’re trying to get through traffic with guys.”

Newman, a three-time Dover winner, finished sixth in the August Bristol race and Erik Jones, who isn't in the Playoffs, finished second and led the most laps (260). Jones might be a really good long shot to take a shot with if getting more than 25-to-1. Still, this will be a heavyweight battle between the elite teams.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
3) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (9/2)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (16/1)

 
Posted : September 27, 2017 3:48 pm
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Apache Warrior 400 Betting Odds and Predictions
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

apache warrior 400 oddsTo Dover International Speedway we go for this week’s Apache Warrior 400. This is the final race in the Round of 16 in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, so the group of drivers eligible to win the championship will go from 16 to 12. The bubble is going to burst for four of the competitors with the outcome at Dover, though they will still have the opportunity to race in and win any of the remaining seven races.

Two drivers have already punched a ticket to the second round and several others are safe. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch have been the winners at Chicagoland and New Hampshire, respectively, and will be moving forward in the postseason. Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and Kevin Harvick all appear to be moving on as well. That leaves six drivers for two spots.

Jamie McMurray is in the best shape with 2,053 points. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Austin Dillon are each tied with 2,044 points, which is right on the cut line. Ryan Newman has 2,043 points. Kurt Busch has 2,027 points and Kasey Kahne is bringing up the rear with 2,023 points. Four of the spots in the top 10 went to drivers that aren’t eligible for the championship, with Erik Jones in sixth, Clint Bowyer in seventh, Daniel Suarez in eighth, and Joey Logano in 10th, so those drivers that didn’t make the top 16 still have the chance to make a big impact this weekend.

This is the 29th race of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season. The 13th race of the season, the AAA Drive for Autism 400, was also at Dover and that was one of Jimmie Johnson’s two victories on the season. The one-mile oval has been kind to Johnson with 11 wins, so he will be a driver to watch. Also notable this weekend is that the Xfinity Series will be back with the Cup Series after last week’s race in Kentucky to kick off the Xfinity Series playoffs.

As far as lines go for this weekend, our friends at 5Dimes Sportsbook have made Martin Truex Jr. the favorite at +250. Truex has been the circuit’s most consistent driver this season. Only Truex and Kyle Larson have finished in the top five of both playoff races. Truex probably should have won back in June at Dover, as he won both stages. Kyle Larson led the most laps, but Truex had timing on his side. Truex won this race last year and won the summer race way back in 2007. Typically we see Truex dominate on the 1.5-mile tracks. He did win this race last year, though, to snap a drought without a Dover top-five that dated back to his win in 2007.While the price is justified and the recent results are there, this isn’t one of Truex’s top tracks, so the price is certainly too light to gamble on.

Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson are each +350 to win this weekend. Busch grabbed a win last week, but he went a long time without a win in the regular season, so he isn’t going to sit back and drive conservatively. Busch has been on some kind of run since the first race at New Hampshire. Over his last 10 races, Busch has three wins, had led the most laps four times, and has nine additional stage wins. Amazingly, he is a two-time winner in the summer race, but has not won the fall race in his career. That could very well change this week. As far as short prices go, he’s the best bet.

Kyle Larson isn’t a bad bet either. He’s been second and fifth in the playoff races so far and finished second with the most laps led at this track earlier this season. That was one of eight runner-up results for Larson this year. He’s been close on a lot of tracks, but most of his top performances have come on bigger tracks. This isn’t one of them, but you have to respect his body of work. Larson has three straight top-five finishes in the summer race, but is 25th, ninth, and sixth in his three career fall races. He did win the Xfinity race at Dover earlier this year and hasn’t finished worse than sixth in the fall, though that is a different car and a different level of competition. If torn between Busch and Larson, Busch is your guy, but it wouldn’t be a shocker to see Larson in front when the checkered flag waves.

Jimmie Johnson’s price is off at +650, but you have to respect a guy that has 11 career wins at a track. Six of Johnson’s wins are in the summer race and five in the fall, with his most recent triumph coming back in 2013. Johnson’s only top-five finishes this season have been wins, of which, he hasn’t had one since Dover. He could work his Delaware magic again this week, but it is a hard bet to make given how his results have come in this year.

Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick are at +1250. While they’re both safe in terms of moving on, the next round looks a little less clear. Kenseth has five top-five finishes in his last 10 races, which is more than he had in his first 18 races. He was third last week at New Hampshire and the Toyota cars look to be gaining steam in crunch time. Kenseth has three career wins at Dover, all in the summer race. Harvick has one career win at Dover and it came in this race back in 2015. His team just hasn’t had the same success this season. He has one win at Sonoma and only nine top-five finishes through 28 races. He had one at Chicagoland in the opener, which was big, otherwise he might be on the bubble this week. I don’t see much value in either of these guys.

Honestly, it is another week where one of the top three probably wins, much like it has been since the Brickyard. You could certainly make a case for a long shot wager on Kurt Busch, who is +4000 this week as he needs probably a top-three finish to have a chance at staying alive. He won this race back in 2011. Ryan Newman also needs a win to stay alive at +30000. He’s a three-time winner here, although he hasn’t won here since 2003. He was fourth in the summer race, so that’s a beer money bet.

 
Posted : September 27, 2017 3:50 pm
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Dover Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Apache Warrior 400 at Dover International Speedway.

Who's HOT at Dover

• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers in wins (10) and laps led (3,100).
• Defending race winner Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 10 in the last three races and combined to lead 336 laps in that span.
• Matt Kenseth has finished seventh or better in six of the last eight races, including a win in the 2016 spring race.
• Kyle Larson has finished second in two of the last three races and has combined to lead 326 laps in that span.
• Kevin Harvick, winner of this event in 2015, has combined to lead 810 laps in the last seven races.
• Kyle Busch, a two-time winner of the spring race, has finished second in the last two fall races and led 102 laps in this event last year.
• Chase Elliott has finished in the top five in all three of his starts.

Keep an Eye On at Dover

• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in each of the last three races at Dover (8.0 average finish).
• Chris Buescher, Landon Cassill, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Joey Logano and Kenseth each participated in the Goodyear tire test in July at Dover. This weekend will feature a new tire combination than what was used in the spring. However, this combination was used at Darlington this year. XFINITY Series teams will run the same tire set-up. Drivers pulling double duty are: Austin Dillon, Ty Dillon, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez.
• Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in six of his last 10 starts, including a win in the 2012 fall race.
• Jamie McMurray and Kasey Kahne each have finished in the top 10 three times in the last five races at Dover.
• Rookies Suarez and Jones each have a win in the XFINITY Series at Dover. Suarez finished sixth in the Cup races in June and Jones was sixth at the final restart before getting swept in an accident (finished 15th).
• Ryan Newman, who finished fourth in the spring at Dover, has the fifth best average finish in the last five races of the season.
• Rookie Ty Dillon led 27 laps and finished 14th in the spring at Dover.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Matt Kenseth
Pete Pistone: Martin Truex Jr.
Robbie Mays: Matt Kenseth
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Larson
John Singler: Ryan Newman

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Dover

Chase Elliott has finished in the top five in his three starts at Dover. He's yet to lead a lap and his best start came in the fall race based on points, in ninth.

Martin Truex Jr. won this event last year for his second victory at Dover in 23 starts. Truex has combined to lead the most laps (289) in the last two Dover races, but this weekend will see a new tire combination. The tire combination is the same used at Darlington where Truex led 76 laps and finished eighth.

Daniel Suarez finished sixth in his first Dover start in the Monster Energy Cup Series in June. Dover is also the site of one of his three career XFINITY Series win.
Kyle Larson has finished second in the last two spring races at Dover and has combined to lead 326 laps in those events. This weekend will see the same tire combination that was used at Darlington, a race where Larson led 124 laps from the fourth starting position.

Kasey Kahne suffered his first DNF at Dover, since this race in 2011, in the spring after getting caught-up in a last lap accident. He finished 17th in the race after running in the top 15 for a majority of the day. The finish raised his average finish to 8.6 in the last five Dover races, which includes three finishes of sixth or better.

Denny Hamlin is one of three drivers that have finished in the top 10 in the last three races at Dover. This weekend will see the same tire combination that was used at Darlington, a race where Hamlin led 124 laps en route to the win.

Matt Kenseth has the second-best average finish (6.3) among drivers that have raced in each of the last four events at Dover. He won the 2016 spring race for his third win in 37 starts. Kenseth, who finished 12th in the spring, was one of the five drivers that participated in the Goodyear tire test at Dover in July.

Kevin Harvick has turned around his Dover record since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014. In seven track starts with the team, Harvick has posted one win and has combined to lead 810 laps - the most by far of any driver in the span. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 1038) that he most recently led 22 laps and finished ninth with at Darlington.

Aric Almirola missed the spring race at Dover due to an injury. He's posted a 14.3 average finish in his last four starts, which includes two fifth-place finishes in 2015.

Ryan Newman finished fourth in the spring at Dover for his 14th top 10, and first since this event in 2014. He led one lap in the spring, which was his first in seven track starts with Richard Childress Racing. Newman’s three Dover wins came with Team Penske early in his career.

Joey Logano was one of the five drivers that participated in the Goodyear tire test in July at Dover. Logano finished 25th in the spring race after a right-front tire failure. The finish was his worst, and second outside the top 11, in the last 11 races. Dover is Logano's worst track on the schedule based on laps led - he's only led three in 17 starts.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished 11th at Dover in the spring for his fifth best finish of the season. His only finish outside the top 17 his last 10 starts came in the 2016 spring race after getting caught up in a chain-reaction crash on a late-race restart. Earnhardt was one of the five drivers that participated in the Goodyear tire test at Dover in July.

Erik Jones finished 15th in his first Dover start in the Monster Energy Cup Series in June after getting caught-up in a multi-car crash on the final lap. He was sixth for the final restart prior to the incident.

Jimmie Johnson captured his 11th win at Dover in the spring. Last year in the event, Johnson led 90 laps en route to a seventh-place finish. Johnson has only finished outside the top seven twice in the last eight races one being a 25th-place finish in the 2016 spring race when he was up front when his car wouldn’t accelerate on a restart and it collected 18 cars.

Brad Keselowski was swept up in crash in June at Dover when Kurt Busch got loose. He finished 38th in that race to snap a streak of two consecutive top 10s at Dover. Since winning the fall race in 2012, Keselowski has posted five more top 10s, including a pair of runner-up finishes in 2014. Last year, Keselowski combined to lead 56 laps at Dover.

 
Posted : September 29, 2017 8:57 am
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Apache Warrior 400 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox,com

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series postseason continues with the Apache Warrior 400 on Sunday. Last week, the drivers were in New Hampshire for the ISM Connect 300. Kyle Busch came away with the victory in that race and he’ll now be looking for his first ever victory at the Apache Warrior 400 on Sunday. Jimmie Johnson is the guy that will be feeling at home on this track on Sunday, as he has won this race a record five times in his career. Nobody else in this race has won it more than once, so he clearly has a significant leg up here. And probably thanks to Johnson, Hendrick Motorsports is the team that has won this race the most. Hendrick has nine victories in the Apache Warrior 400, which is three more than Penske Racing. As for the manufacturer that has been the most successful here, that would be Chevrolet. Chevrolet has been the make of the winner 19 times in this race, but Martin Truex Jr. actually became the first driver to ever win in a Toyota here last year. With that out of the way, here are the guys that are worth backing this weekend:

Martin Truex Jr. - As previously mentioned, Truex Jr. is the last guy to win this race and he actually did it in impressive fashion. Truex Jr. finished the race in 3:03:15, which is the fastest anybody has done it since Jimmie Johnson’s victory back in 2010. He also happens to be driving incredibly well recently, as he won the Tale of the Turtles 400 two weeks ago and followed it up with a fifth-place finish at the ISM Connect 300 last week. He’ll be worth a play here.

Jimmie Johnson - Johnson has been the king of Dover International Speedway in his career, as he has won this race five times. Johnson most recently won it back in 2013, but it’s not like he has been awful since then either. Johnson has finished inside the top-10 in two of his past three appearances at Dover, which is pretty good for an “off” performance. Back him if you’re looking for somebody that will almost certainly be in the running to win this.

Kevin Harvick - Kevin Harvick hasn’t quite been as good as Jimmie Johnson at Dover, but he is definitely a guy that enjoys racing on this track. Harvick won the Apache Warrior 400 back in 2015, and he has finished inside the top-10 here in three of the past six races. Look for him to make yet another run at a victory on Sunday and don’t be afraid to back him to do so.

 
Posted : October 1, 2017 8:55 am
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