Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting News and Notes

Driver Highlights - Richmond
VegasInsider.com

Clint Bowyer (No. 15 5-hour Energy Toyota)

-- One win, one top five, seven top 10s
-- Average finish of 10.2
-- Average Running Position of 10.7, fourth-best
-- Driver Rating of 96.4, fifth-best
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.431 mph, seventh-fastest
-- 3,968 Laps in the Top 15 (76.2%), sixth-most
-- 411 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fourth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 51 Hendrickcars.com Chevrolet)

-- One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
-- Average finish of 17.9
-- Average Running Position of 14.8, ninth-best
-- Driver Rating of 90.8, ninth-best
-- 299 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.449 mph, sixth-fastest

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

-- Four wins, 12 top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 4.7
-- Average Running Position of 7.3, second-best
-- Driver Rating of 116.1, second-best
-- 503 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.901 mph, second-fastest
-- 5,292 Laps in the Top 15 (88.1%), second-most
-- 453 Quality Passes, third-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 Diet Mountain Dew / National Guard Chevrolet)

-- Three wins, nine top fives, 11 top 10s
-- Average finish of 13.9
-- Average Running Position of 15.8, 13th-best
-- Driver Rating of 84.2, 13th-best
-- 280 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
-- 793 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Kellogg's Ford)

-- Three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 14.8
-- Average Running Position of 15.1, 10th-best
-- Driver Rating of 89.1, 11th-best
-- 241 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
-- 745 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.332 mph, 11th-fastest

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)

-- Two wins, 15 top fives, 24 top 10s; five poles
-- Average finish of 14.7
-- Average Running Position of 13.8, eighth-best
-- Driver Rating of 96.2, sixth-best
-- 302 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.462 mph, fifth-fastest
-- 3,879 Laps in the Top 15 (64.5%), seventh-most
-- 355 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Express Toyota)

-- Two wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
-- Average finish of 7.3
-- Series-best Average Running Position of 6.1
-- Series-best Driver Rating of 117.2
-- Series-high 521 Fastest Laps Run
-- Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 116.921 mph
-- 4,836 Laps in the Top 15 (92.8%), third-most
-- 373 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Budweiser Chevrolet)

-- Two wins, six top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 11.8
-- Average Running Position of 7.4, third-best
-- Driver Rating of 111.6, third-best
-- 421 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.763 mph, third-fastest
-- Series-high 5,525 Laps in the Top 15 (91.9%)
-- Series-high 488 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

-- Three wins, five top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
-- Average finish of 16.7
-- Average Running Position of 15.7, 12th-best
-- Driver Rating of 89.6, 10th-best
-- 215 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.319 mph, 12th-fastest
-- 3,361 Laps in the Top 15 (55.9%), 13th-most
-- 345 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Quaker State Chevrolet)

-- One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 18.4
-- Driver Rating of 86.6, 12th-best
-- 279 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
-- 698 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.344 mph, 10th-fastest
-- 3,396 Laps in the Top 15 (56.5%), 12th-most
-- 345 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Mark Martin (No. 55 Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota)

-- One win, 17 top fives, 29 top 10s; five poles
-- Average finish of 12.1
-- Average Running Position of 13.4, seventh-best
-- Driver Rating of 91.7, eighth-best
-- 158 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.412 mph, eighth-fastest
-- 3,722 Laps in the Top 15 (61.9%), eighth-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet)

-- One win, five top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 11.8
-- Average Running Position of 11.3, fifth-best
-- Driver Rating of 92.4, seventh-best
-- 727 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.371 mph, ninth-fastest
-- 4,777 Laps in the Top 15 (79.5%), fourth-most
-- 464 Quality Passes, second-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

-- Three wins, 10 top fives, 18 top 10s
-- Average finish of 10.6
-- Average Running Position of 11.8, sixth-best
-- Driver Rating of 97.4, fourth-best
-- 738 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 116.590 mph, fourth-fastest

Federated Auto Parts 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Things are going get very interesting this Saturday night at Richmond, the final race to decide who makes the final position of the Chase. We've got kind of a one-on-one battle with Kyle Busch holding a slim 12-point lead over Jeff Gordon for the final position. And then way out in the distance with a slim chance still alive, we have Carl Edwards, who is 26 points behind Busch and facing a situation where he has to win to get in and hope the other two contenders falter.

It may seem highly unlikely that Edwards could get in since he hasn't won a race since last year in Las Vegas, but we do have to consider that in the first Richmond race this season held in April, Edwards led five times for a race high 206 laps. He went on to finish 10th in the race, but it's enough to give him a puncher's chance in this bout.

The winner of that April race was Kyle Busch, which gave him four career wins on the track. With the lead he has going into this race and all his past history, Busch would be a minus-800 (Bet $800 to win $100) favorite over Gordon and Edwards to take the final Chase spot. But who knows, we've seen bigger upsets in the sports world like the Houston Cougars losing Saturday to Texas State as 35-point favorites and minus-6000 (Bet $6,000 to win $100) on the money-line.

The problem with trying to find an issue with Busch at Richmond is that it never happens. We see Busch always run into tough luck, or even at times run poorly at other tracks, but never at Richmond. His worst finish was 20th in 2007 and in 2008 he finished 15th. In his 13 others starts, he's finished sixth or better. His average finish in 15 starts is 4.7, an amazing stretch of consistency.

Not only should Busch make the Chase, but he's also the favorite to win the race. His one downfall going against him winning would be that he's never won the fall race. All four of his wins have come in the spring.

Gordon doesn't quite have the Richmond resume that Busch has, but he's been solid throughout his career there. He needs to win to get in by virtue of having two wins on the year compared to Busch's one win. The problem with getting Gordon a win is that he's only had two Richmond wins over his 39 career starts with the last victory coming in 2000.

I like to use recent New Hampshire and Phoenix races to get a feel for what might happen at Richmond because of the similar banking. If a driver runs well on one track, they're likely to run well on the other. When I look at Gordon's performances this year at those two tracks, he was a top-10 finisher, but wasn't a real contender to win. At Richmond in April, Gordon finished 23rd.

The driver who will give Busch a run for his money to win this week will be native Virginian Denny Hamlin, who has two Richmond wins to his credit, both of which came in the fall event. His career average finish of 7.3 is second only to Busch. Right now, no one is hotter than Hamlin. He won at Bristol two weeks ago and took the checkers at Atlanta last Sunday night. He's got all the momentum coming in and will have large supporting cast in the crowd rooting him in.

Hamlin also has the added bonus going for him of winning at Phoenix and finishing runner-up at New Hampshire. He finished fourth in the spring at Richmond making him the only driver to finish in the top-5 at all three similar tracks.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. was runner-up in the spring race and finished fourth at New Hampshire making him a candidate to win under the lights. Junior has three career Richmond wins, the last coming in 2006.

Kevin Harvick won this race last season and showed some fight last week at Atlanta for the first time in months. He was a contender and his history at Richmond suggests he's capable of doing it again. He's finished 12th or better in 14 of his last 16 starts, including another win in 2006.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (6/1)
2) #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
4) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
5) #5 Kasey Kahne (12/1)

Driver Handicaps: Richmond
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for Saturday night's NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

Who's HOT at Richmond

• Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have combined to win six of the last seven races.
• Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 in four of his last six starts, including a win in this event last year.
• Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer have posted respective average finishes of 8.5 and 10.2 in the last 10 races.
• Carl Edwards has finished in the top 10 and combined to lead 427 laps in his last five starts.
• Three-time winner Jimmie Johnson has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts.
• Jeff Gordon has finished ninth or better in seven of his last 10 starts.

Keep an Eye On at Richmond

• Dale Earnhardt Jr. will return in the same car that he finished second with at Richmond in April.
• Ryan Newman has posted a 10.9 average finish in seven Richmond starts with Stewart-Haas Racing at Richmond.
• Marcos Ambrose and Martin Truex Jr. each bring momentum into Richmond with leading average finishes of 7.6 in the last five races this season.
• Brad Keselowski recorded his first top 10 at Richmond in April.
• Kasey Kahne, who finished fifth at Richmond in May, will return in the same car he won with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.
• Mark Martin, who won the pole and finished eighth in April, has posted a 12.1 average finish in 53 starts at Richmond.
• Richmond is one of three tracks that Sam Hornish Jr. has scored two top 10s at.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Carl Edwards
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Ricky Hamber: Denny Hamlin
John Singler: Kevin Harvick

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Richmond unless noted)

Greg Biffle: Last of five top 10s came in 2006 fall race; 16.7 average finish; Finished 18th in April; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 822) in the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Dale Earnhardt Jr: Finished second in May; 18.9 average finish in nine starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Last of three wins with Dale Earnhardt Inc. came in the 2006 spring race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 709) that he raced at Richmond in April.

Matt Kenseth: Finished 11th in April; 17.0 average finish in 25 starts; Last of nine top 10s came in the 2007 spring race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 806) that he finished sixth with at Darlington Raceway.

Jimmie Johnson: Finished sixth in April for eighth top 10 in 21 starts; Last of three wins came in this event in 2008; Sixth-best average finish (9.4) in the last five September races; 10th-best average finish (13.7) in the last 10 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 689) that he last finished fourth with at Phoenix International Raceway.

Martin Truex Jr: 22.2 average finish in five starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Last of two top 10s in 13 starts came in the 2010 spring race.

Brad Keselowski: Coming off first top 10 in six starts; 20.7 average finish; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 822) that he took to Victory Lane at Kentucky Speedway in June.

Denny Hamlin: Winner of the 2009 and 2010 September races; Has finished ninth or better in five of the last six races; Best average finish (4.0) in the last five September races; Second-best average finish (7.5) in the last 10 races; 7.3 average finish and 1,188 laps led in 13 overall starts.

Clint Bowyer: Finished seventh in first track start with Michael Waltrip Racing in April; Winner of the 2008 spring race; Eighth-best average finish (11.6) in the last five September races; Fourth-best average finish (10.2) in the last 10 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 718) that he finished third with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.

Kevin Harvick: Defending race winner; Win was second in 23 starts; Third-best average finish (6.6) in the last five September races; Fifth-best average finish (10.9) in the last 10 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 320) that he finished eighth with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.

Tony Stewart: Coming off third consecutive top 10; 11.0 average finish in seven starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Fourth-best average finish (8.8) in the last five September races Third-best average finish (8.5) in the last 10 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 710) that he led 118 laps en route to a third-place finish at Richmond in April.

Kasey Kahne: Finished fifth in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports in April; Finish was seventh top 10 in 17 starts; Won the 2005 spring race with Evernham Motorsports; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 663) that he won with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.

Kyle Busch: Coming off fourth straight win in the spring race; 4.7 average finish in 15 starts; Seventh-best average finish (9.6) in the last five September races; Leads all drivers in average finish (5.4) in the last 10 races.

Jeff Gordon: Finished 23rd in April; Has finished ninth or better in eight of the last 11 races; Last of two wins came in this event in 2000; Second-best average finish (6.0) in the last five September races; Sixth-best average finish (11.1) in the last 10 races.

Carl Edwards: Has finished in the top 10 and combined to lead 427 laps in his last five starts; Ninth-best average finish (13.5) in the last 10 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 801) that he finished 10th with at Richmond in April.

Paul Menard: Coming off best finish in 13th; 27.5 average finish in 11 starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 380) that he finished 14th with at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in July.

Marcos Ambrose: Finished in the top 10 in both races in 2010; Has posted an average finish of 22.0 in last three starts with Richard Petty Motorsports; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 805) that he finished 22nd with at Richmond in April.

Ryan Newman: 10.9 average finish in seven starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Won this event in 2003 with Pesnke Racing; 10th-best average finish (14.6) in the last five September races; Eighth-best average finish (12.6) in the last 10 races; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 691) that he finished 21st at Phoenix International Raceway with after contact; He previously posted two top 10s with the car, including this event at Richmond last year.

Joey Logano: Only top 10 came in this event in 2010 in fourth; 17.6 average finish in seven starts.

Jamie McMurray: 14th-place finish in last two events are best in five starts driving a Earnhardt Ganassi Chevrolet; Last of three top 10s came in the 2009 spring race with Roush Racing; Chassis No. 1008 will make its 2012 season debut in the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Jeff Burton: Last of 15 top 10s came in the 2010 spring race in fourth; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 382) that he most recently finished 21st with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.

Federated Auto Parts 400 Preview
By Greg Engle
Examiner.com

With so much on the line Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 Richmond International Raceway could be the wildest race of the season to date. This marks the final event in NASCAR’s ‘regular’ season and finalizes the field for the10 race 2012 Chase for the Sprint Cup.

While the top of the field is locked in, there are still three spots up for grabs and 10 drivers who can mathematically contest for them.

Chief among those on the outside looking in is Kyle Busch. Currently Kasey Kahne holds the provisional Wild Card spot with Busch looking to knock him off that bubble. Given the history of Joe Gibbs Racing here at Richmond, Saturday night Busch has a great chance of doing just that.

Kyle won here in the spring and was sixth in this race last season; overall he has four wins here, three of those coming in the last five Richmond races.

“We were in this situation in 2009 and we had to go to Richmond and finish five spots ahead of Brian Vickers and we finished fifth, which was great,” Busch said. “But Brian Vickers finished eighth, so we missed the Chase that night. Not necessarily one that you bank on going there and getting a win or anything like that. You feel like you can run well, but you can’t guarantee it, either. Again, you just do what you’ve got – do what you need to do to run as well as you can. There are definitely never any guarantees you’re going to show up to the racetrack and win. You’ve just got to work hard, communicate with your crew chief the best you can and not get too frustrated when things aren’t exactly correct. But, yet, be determined enough that you can get them fixed and get out there and make the most of your opportunities.”

Of the remaining hopefuls, Jeff Gordon could be the toughest. He was third in this race last season but finished outside the top 20 in two of the last four including a 23rd place finish here in the spring. However with the experience that Gordon carries in here and his raw determination to race his way into the Chase, Gordon could be one to watch Saturday night.

"We're going with guns loaded ready to do battle," said Gordon. "This race is always intense and I expect it to be a pretty crazy night.

"It's a little bit different because it's a short track (compared to last week's race on the 1.54-mile Atlanta track). I think everybody expects there to be a little more pushing and shoving on the short track. I've been saying all along that I think it's going to come down to the last lap at Richmond - and we're going to fight all the way down to that last lap.

"Our focus won't be on what 'this team' is doing or what 'this driver' is doing. We're just going to focus on our own program like we always do. We'll focus on tuning the car, communicating and working the setup the best we possibly can to try to have the fastest race car.

"I'm not going into the race thinking that we've got to finish 12 positions ahead of Kyle. I'm thinking we have to win."

Even Busch has his eye on Gordon factoring him in when Busch was asked about his confidence of making the Chase.

“I feel OK. I’m not saying I’m for sure going to be in at all,” he said. “Anything can happen. Jeff (Gordon) is no slouch at Richmond, either. He will be fine. I feel like he’s the guy we’re racing – the 24 car. We’ll just have to see how it all plays out. Jeff could give us a run for our money.”

Although a Ford hasn’t won here since 2005, one driver needing a win to make the Chase is Carl Edwards. He’s had a miserable string of bad luck, but still has a shot of making the Chase. Out of the three cars in the Roush-Fenway Racing stable, Edwards has the best Richmond record. With his teammates already secured in the Chase, Edwards desperately wants to join the party. He was second in this race last season and in the spring he led 206 laps before a late race penalty took him from contention and left him in 10th. He has never won here, but that could change Saturday night.

“We’re going to Richmond to win,” Edwards said. “We need some luck and we need it to be good luck. We’ve passed more cars in the last month than we’ve passed all year. I wouldn’t go to Richmond with any other team, in any other car. I feel like the No.99 Ford is the favorite there because of how we ran in the spring and we’re settling for nothing less than victory lane.”

Tony Stewart is looking to make a strong statement. While he is assured of at least a Wild Card spot, he needs to be seeded in the top 10 in the Chase to get the bonus points for his three wins this season. Stewart hasn’t won here since 2002 but finished third in the spring and in the top ten the two races prior. He could easily steal the spotlight Saturday night.

“It is my favorite track,” Stewart said. “It’s not one of them; it’s the favorite track of mine on the circuit. It seems like we have to race ourselves and race the racetrack versus racing each other a lot of times. You do have to race each other, obviously, but there are a lot of times during the race when you have the flexibility to move around on the racetrack and try to find a spot your car likes better than somewhere else. A lot of times on a short track you don’t have the flexibility. You’re more narrowed down with what groove you’re going to be in.”

Bottom Line: 63 of 112 races have been won from the top five starting positions, including 22 from the pole. The last driver to win from the pole was Kyle Busch on May 1, 2010. The furthest back in the field a race winner has started was 31st, by Clint Bowyer in the 2008 spring race

NASCAR Practice Notes & Driver Ratings
By Micah Roberts
Vegasinsider.com

Practice Notes - Richmond

Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Richmond
1 Kyle Busch 9/2 21st 8th 15th 1st
Notes: Four-time winner, including this season, with a 4.7 career average finish in 15 starts.

2 Kevin Harvick 12/1 5th 6th 13th 19th
Notes: Two-time winner, including last fall; fast on long runs in practice; using New Hampshire car.

3 Carl Edwards 20/1 17th 1st 16th 10th
Notes: Using same car that led 206 laps in spring race; best 10-consecutive lap average in Practice 2.

4 Denny Hamlin 9/2 6th 25th 7th 4th
Notes: Native Virginian has won two of last three fall races; going for third straight win (Bristol, Atlanta).

5 Jimmie Johnson 8/1 18th 2nd 5th 6th
Notes: Three-time winner, the last coming in 2008; one of worst statistical tracks for him on circuit.

6 Jeff Gordon 8/1 10th 4th 2nd 23rd
Notes: Two-time winner, the last coming in 2000; has to win or gain 13 points on Busch to make Chase.

7 Kasey Kahne 10/1 15th 22nd 21st 5th
Notes: 2005 winner; very mediocre in practice, but using winning New Hampshire chassis from July.

8 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 10/1 2nd 16th 1st 2nd
Notes: Three-time winner; good practices deceiving; using runner-up Richmond chassis from April.

9 Brad Keselowski 10/1 12th 28th 10th 9th
Notes: Best 10-consecutive lap average in Practice 1; using winning Kentucky chassis this week.

10 Jeff Burton 100/1 1st 3rd 20th 31st
Notes: 1998 winner, and native Virginian, was just as good as teammate Harvick during practices.

* Results from the April 28 race at Richmond. Phoenix and New Hampshire can also be used as a good barometer for Richmond because of similar banking and short distances.

Betting Notes: My heart tells me to to give Jeff Burton and Carl Edwards a shot to win the race, but my brain is telling me Kevin Harvick is going to step up for the first time this season. His last win came at Richmond a year ago. He’s way overdue and has the car to get it done.

I liked Denny Hamlin a lot coming into this race, but he showed nothing in practice, and that’s never good for him because when he’s good to go, he usually shows it the day before.

Tony Stewart was awful in both sessions, but would be a driver I look to bet on in matchups just because he’ll be undervalued due to those poor times. Kasey Kahne may be in the same boat after a poor run last week and bad practices, but I like the car he’s using this week.

Kyle Busch will be points racing, watching his rearview mirror for Jeff Gordon, so I think he takes himself out of the betting equation.