Overton 301 Betting News and Notes

New Hampshire - Driver Tale of the Tape

Clint Bowyer 25/1 (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.682, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.768, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.5, 13th-best
· 250 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· 3813 Laps in the Top 15 (57.9), 13th-most
· 519 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kyle Busch 4/1 (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 13.750, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.531, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 98.1, fourth-best
· 370 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· 5019 Laps in the Top 15 (69.9), eighth-most
· 627 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kurt Busch 60/1 (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Three wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.917, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.283, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.7, 12th-best
· 203 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.841, 11th-fastest
· 4656 Laps in the Top 15 (64.8 ), 10th-most
· 660 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr 60/1 (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Eight top fives, 15 top 10s
· Average finish of 13.500, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.396, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.4, sixth-best
· 273 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.183, series-fastest
· 4989 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8 ), third-most
· 703 Quality Passes, second-most

Chase Elliott 15/1 (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One top 15
· Average finish of 23.500, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 7.778, series-best
· Driver Rating of 92.9, seventh-best
· 27 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.928, sixth-fastest
· 567 Laps in the Top 15 (94.3), series-most
· 46 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Denny Hamlin 7/1 (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
· Average finish of 10.409, second-best
· Average Running Position of 11.068, second-best
· Driver Rating of 102.7, series-best
· 394 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.106, third-fastest
· 4985 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8 ), fourth-most
· 689 Quality Passes, third-most

Kevin Harvick 6/1 (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, nine top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.667, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.083, third-best
· Driver Rating of 97.5, fifth-best
· 421 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.076, fourth-fastest
· 5185 Laps in the Top 15 (72.2), fifth-most
· 603 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jimmie Johnson 8/1 (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Three wins, ten top fives, 20 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.125, third-best
· Average Running Position of 11.182, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 101.0, second-best
· 451 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.178, second-fastest
· 5641 Laps in the Top 15 (78.6), second-most
· 707 Quality Passes, series-most

Kasey Kahne 100/1 (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, three top fives, ten top 10s
· Average finish of 17.625, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.986, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.4, 10th-best
· 367 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.905, eighth-fastest
· 4672 Laps in the Top 15 (65.1), ninth-most
· 671 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth 8/1 (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Three wins, ten top fives, 19 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.250, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.700, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 91.9, eighth-best
· 279 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.898, ninth-fastest
· 4483 Laps in the Top 15 (62.4), 12th-most
· 599 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Brad Keselowski 8/1 (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· One win, six top fives, nine top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 10.267, series-best
· Average Running Position of 11.337, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 99.3, third-best
· 348 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 125.049, fifth-fastest
· 3239 Laps in the Top 15 (72.2), sixth-most
· 450 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Ryan Newman 100/1 (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Three wins, seven top fives, 18 top 10s; seven poles
· Average finish of 14.625, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.631, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.0, 11th-best
· 172 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.755, 12th-fastest
· 5036 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1), seventh-most
· 598 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Martin Truex Jr 5/1 (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota Camry)

· Three top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 13.727, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 13.254, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.6, ninth-best
· 209 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 124.845, 10th-fastest
· 4188 Laps in the Top 15 (63.6), 11th-most
· 525 Quality Passes, 10th-most

New Hampshire 301 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Only eight races remain until the playoffs start as the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series rolls into New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the first of two races in 2017. Sunday's Overton 301 starts the second-half of the season and we're going to see a mixed bag of strategies by the drivers.

So far, 10 drivers have clinched a berth as being one of the 16 qualified for the playoffs. Another driver, Joey Logano, has a win but had it away stripped because of failing a post-race inspection which makes him 17th in points -- outside and looking in. What is the best strategy for Logano here who is just 7-points outside of the 16th position?

Obviously winning is the best way to get in. Logano won his first career race at New Hampshire in 2009 and he's also got a 2014 win to his credit and has finished in the top-5 in four of his past five starts there. But he's also got to play it smart as he's essentially points racing now. It's apparent that all things are not well in Logano's camp, which is odd because his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski leads all drivers with nine top-5s this season.

Following Logano outside looking in to the playoffs is Erik Jones (426 pts), Daniel Suarez (373) and Trevor Bayne (352) to round out the top-20 in points.

The most interesting part of this eight-race Chase to the playoffs is the drivers sitting 11 through 16 that don't have wins on the season and have yet to qualify. And these are some of the biggest names in the sport with Kyle Busch (609), Chase Elliott (560), Jamie McMurray (545), Denny Hamlin (538), Clint Bowyer (495) and Matt Kenseth (478).

“The pressure cooker is certainly turning up,” said Bowyer, who has scored the second-most points of any driver in the last three Cup Series races. He's also a two-time winner at New Hampshire which gives him some source of comfort.

“Those (past NHMS) wins allow you to go into this race with more confidence than you would at a track where you haven’t won,” Bowyer said. “I feel like we can win again at New Hampshire this weekend. We really want to win, but we also want to make sure we don’t do anything that will knock us out of the points.”

Every driver wants to win, but the points racing aspect is definitely something to consider when wagering. Drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Larson will all be stage racing for playoff bonus points and they can also make the risky moves and calls at the end of the race to accumulate more wins.

All that stuff aside, the first thing I did to prepare for handicapping New Hampshire's 1.058-mile, flat layout was a take a glance at what happened in the March 19 race at Phoenix as well as the Apr. 30 race at Richmond. Both those tracks are similar in size and banking and if a driver does well on one they're more likely to do well on the other.

Ryan Newman held on for the win at Phoenix, but Kyle Busch led a race-high 114 laps and Elliott led 106 laps and finished 12th. Logano led 82 laps and finished 31st after being involved in a wreck and Keselowski would finish fifth.

Six weeks later, it was Logano getting the win at Richmond, but would have the points taken away after......cheating. Keselowski would finish second and lead 110 laps. Kenseth would lead a race-high 164 laps and finish 23rd.

The name that jumps out at me the most here is Kenseth, who has won three times in the past seven New Hampshire races. He was second last fall. The Richmond race coupled with his obvious like for this layout gave me reason to immediately search for the best odds in Las Vegas on him.

Joe Gibbs Racing still hasn't won a race yet, but I'm liking Busch, Kenseth and Hamlin to all fare well. Both Busch and Hamlin have each won twice at New Hampshire. Think of how good Hamlin is at Martinsville's half-mile flat layout and you kind of get the idea why he's so good on this larger paperclip. Hamlin also has four runner-up finishes there.

One longer shot to keep an eye on here is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. who finished fourth at both Phoenix and Richmond. Newman has also won at New Hampshire three times.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #20 Matt Kenseth (15/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (15/1)
5) #42 Kyle Larson (7/1)

New Hampshire Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com

MRN's Pete Pistone gets you ready for Sunday's Overton's 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a look at some of the drivers in the field for the 19th Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race of the season.

Who’s Hot in New Hampshire

Martin Truex Jr.: Don’t look for a Kentucky runaway like last week for the Furniture Row Racing driver but Truex Jr. will have some extra pep in the step after his effort in the Bluegrass State. He’s been solid at Loudon over the last five races with an average finish of 11.0. He combined to lead 264 laps in both races last season, including 123 in this event last year until a broken shifter took him out of contention.

Joey Logano: He has the best average finish over the last five New Hampshire races of 4.4, including a win back in 2014. The Team Penske driver needs a win to lock himself into the playoffs and what better place for that to come for Logano than at his home track in Loudon.

Kevin Harvick: A first and fourth was what Harvick put on the board at Loudon last year. He’s always a threat at “The Magic Mile” and a flat track specialist at places like Loudon and Phoenix where he always spectacular.

Kyle Busch: Still looking for his first win of the season, Busch brings a string record of Loudon success into Sunday’s race. He has four top-10 finishes in his last five New Hampshire starts including a win in the 2015 season.

Kyle Larson: You can’t discount Larson any week of the season even at New Hampshire where his numbers aren’t eye-popping. Larson was second two years ago but his last four outings have resulted in finishes no better than 10th last season. But this year is different for Larson, who is strong on a near weekly basis.

Who’s Not

Chris Buescher: Last year’s Cinderella story in the playoff race is close to having the clock strike midnight this year. Buescher only has eight more shots in the regular season to replicate the win he had at Pocono last season and his two New Hampshire finishes are 29th and 30th.

Trevor Bayne: The Roush Fenway Racing driver is trying to join his teammate Ricky Stenhouse Jr. on the winners list this year and also make the playoffs. He’ll have to overcome an average Loudon finish of 27.3

Danica Patrick: New Hampshire has seen Patrick have a few flashes of running well during his Cup career but overall her track record isn’t the greatest. Her last five starts have averaged a 23.0 finish.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: A two-time Cup winner this year, Stenhouse Jr. will have work to do this weekend to right the ship at New Hampshire where he’s struggled in recent years. Last season the Roush Fenway Racing driver posted finishes of 10th and 24th.

Paul Menard: He’s square in the discussion about plans for 2018 but the Richard Childress Racing driver needs to focus on finishing up the regular season on a strong note. His New Hampshire record includes a 19.6 average finish dating back to the 2014 campaign.

Who to Watch in New Hampshire

Clint Bowyer: He has past success at New Hampshire including a pair of wins when he was a member of Richard Childress Racing. However in the past five races, Loudon has been a challenge for Bowyer with an average finish of 24.0. He looks to turn that around in his first track start with Stewart-Haas Racing.

Kurt Busch: The Daytona 500 win seems like a long time ago for Busch, who like his Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Bowyer has enjoyed past success at New Hampshire. He did have a top-five run in Loudon last fall.

Aric Almirola: He’s back behind the wheel of the Richard Petty Motorsports No. 43 ride this week after recovering from back injuries suffered in a Kansas accident two months ago. Almirola did finish sixth at Loudon in 2014.

Matt Kenseth: Now that he’s officially out of Joe Gibbs Racing at season’s end it will be interesting to watch Kenseth down the stretch of his final season with the team. He’s always strong in New Hampshire and has finished first or second in the track’s last three races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: He didn’t race at New Hampshire at all last season, missing both races with his concussion injury. Earnhardt Jr. needs to find a way to Victory Lane in the remaining eight races to make the playoffs. He has a top-five at Loudon in 2015.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Robbie Mays: Martin Truex Jr.
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Busch
John Singler: Denny Hamlin

Overton’s 301 Betting Predictions
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Overton’s sells marine equipment, so it only makes sense that they have shelled out a lot of sponsorship dollars for this weekend’s set of races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Saturday’s Xfinity Series Overton’s 200 will be followed by Sunday’s Overton’s 301, which is this week’s event for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. This is the final season in which the 1.058-mile track in Loudon, New Hampshire will be hosting two races. The fall date, which is the second race of the Round of 16 in the NASCAR playoffs, will belong to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the foreseeable future.

The domination experienced by the Joe Gibbs Racing team in the Xfinity Series event hasn’t fully carried over to the Cup Series side, although the JGR team does have six victories in this race. That could make things pretty interesting in the standings. Eighteen of the 26 races in the regular season have been completed, plus a couple of duels that were worth points. The points leader is Martin Truex Jr. with 709 after sweeping the board last week at Kentucky. Kyle Larson is second with 675 points, but he lost 35 points last week due to a rules infraction. Kyle Busch is third with 609 points. Kevin Harvick is fourth with 599 points. Chase Elliott is fifth with 560 points.

Jamie McMurray is one of three drivers in the top 10 without a win, but is still sixth in points. Denny Hamlin’s lone win came in one of the duels. He sits in seventh, with Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, and Clint Bowyer up there to round out the top 10. Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, and Kurt Busch round out the top 15.

Times are getting interesting for a lot of drivers. One road course race remains at Watkins Glen. With the Brickyard, the night race at Bristol, and the regular season finale at Richmond comprising some of what’s left, tensions are going to start to run high for those on the bubble. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is 16th in points, but has two wins. Ryan Newman is 17th with a win. Austin Dillon is 20th with a win. Those without a win would lose a spot to those guys, despite their position in the standings.

We have co-favorites this week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. One belongs to Joe Gibbs Racing and the other is part of the Furniture Row Racing satellite team. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are both +500 at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Incredibly, Busch, who is a two-time winner of this race, is third in points this season, but doesn’t have a win. It has been a remarkably frustrating season for the Busch team, with two seconds, a couple thirds with the most laps led, and a few other top-five finishes. They just can’t get over the hump. Perhaps this week, especially with JGR’s background at this track and Busch’s two career wins.

Martin Truex Jr. doesn’t have a win here. He shines on 1.5-mile tracks, but this one is a little bit shorter, so we’ll have to see what sort of result he has. Truex has been at or near the top in points most of the season and has been arguably the most consistent driver this season. New Hampshire has not been kind to Truex. In this race, specifically, he hasn’t finished in the top 10 since 2011 and the top five since 2008. He’s had better fortunes in the fall race, but still hasn’t won. He seems to be priced a little bit too low this week, therefore it’s best to stay away.

Kevin Harvick checks in at +550 this week. Harvick’s team hasn’t been able to get going this season, with just one win on the road course at Sonoma, which felt like a bit of an outlier for Harvick. Last season, he was racking up second-place finishes, but this season, he only has one of those to go along with one win. Harvick doesn’t have a summer win at New Hampshire, but he has two fall wins, including last year’s fall race, which falls during the NASCAR postseason. Harvick is a tough bet because his finishes have been all over the map this season. But, he has two straight top-five finishes in this race and had that win last fall.

Denny Hamlin is priced at +650 this weekend, which seems like a really short price for him, but he’s great on one-mile tracks and likes to run in the traffic of the restrictor plate races. Hamlin won this race back in 2007 and had a win in 2012 in the fall race. Hamlin hasn’t finished in the top five here since 2012 in this race and was second in the 2015 fall race. Hamlin has finished fourth in three of the last four races, so his team may be getting on track. The price seems to give us some context clues here, so Hamlin may be a good bet.

Brad Keselowski, who has two wins at the Xfinity Series level and one in this race at New Hampshire, is priced at +850. That’s the same price as Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has three wins and a lot of mediocre to bad finishes otherwise. Keselowski has two wins and a bunch of top-five and top-10 finishes, but he also has four finishes of 31st or worse. Johnson is tied with Kurt Busch as the active drivers with the most wins at New Hampshire with three. Johnson’s last win here came all the way back in 2010. Keselowski won this race in 2014. Keselowski is a better bet than Johnson, all things considered.

Speaking of Kurt Busch, he’s this week’s value pick at +5500. Busch won the Daytona 500 this season, so he’s safely in the postseason, but he has just one top-five finish since. This has been a kind track to him, so he’s worthy of consideration. Another driver to watch is Clint Bowyer. Bowyer was second at both Sonoma and Daytona. He has two wins in the fall race in his career. Bowyer is +2000, so maybe you can throw some beer money on Bowyer and throw some top-five prop money on Busch to put together a couple tickets for this weekend.

Overton's 301 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

Martin Truex Jr. won last week’s Quaker State 400, but now the drivers head to New Hampshire for the Overton’s 301 on Sunday. Last year, Matt Kenseth was the driver that came away with the victory at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. It was his first time winning the event, but there are a few active drivers that have won this thing more than once. Those drivers would be Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Kurt Busch, who have all seemingly won every event more than once. They are three of the best drivers to ever do it, and all of them would love to find a way to win a third here on Sunday. Jeff Burton is the only driver in history to have won this thing three times, but it’s likely that record will be broken at some point. The team that has had the most success here is Joe Gibbs Racing, which has six wins in this race. Both Ford and Chevrolet have had their cars win eight times here, but Toyota has had each of the past two winners. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who might win this one:

Kyle Busch (7-to-2) - As previously mentioned, Kyle Busch has won the Overton’s 301 twice in his career. Only three active drivers have done that and he’s going to be a real threat to win his third in this one. Busch is coming off of a good performance at the Quaker State 400, finishing in fifth in that race. He led for 112 laps and has been in a serious groove lately. Busch has finished inside the top-five in two of the past three races. He’s knocking on the door of winning his first race of the season, and is worth a shot at 7-to-2.

Jimmie Johnson (8-to-1) - Like Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson has also won the Overton’s 301 twice. And while Johnson last won it back in 2010, it’s not like he has been bad here since then. In fact, Johnson has three top-10 finishes in New Hampshire since winning in 2010. Johnson also has raced pretty well this season. He already has three victories on the year and will be fired up when he gets out there on Sunday. Johnson came in 40th at last week’s Quaker State 400, and that is going to leave a bad taste in his mouth. Don’t be afraid to back him at 8-to-1.

Matt Kenseth (8-to-1) - Kenseth hasn’t won this race twice like Busch and Johnson, but he is the defending champion at the Overton’s 301 heading into Sunday. Kenseth finished in 2:57:53, which was the second-best time in the past four of these races. Kenseth has also finished inside the top-10 at each of the past four of these races, so he clearly has a tremendous feel for this track. He’ll be confident when he gets out there on Sunday and is a good value at 8-to-1.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (70-to-1) - Earnhardt Jr. has obviously had a rough season, but it’s still just very hard to pass on these 70-to-1 odds. Earnhardt Jr. has been solid at New Hampshire in his career, and he has actually finished inside the top-10 in three of the past four of his appearances at this track. It’s not hard to imagine him finding a way to win this one, and it’d payout huge if he did.