Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Storylines
By Nascar.com
For the first time since 2001, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series welcomes a new track to its schedule, and the timing makes this one even more of a spectacle.
This Saturday night, in the Quaker State 400, the long-awaited and much-anticipated debut of NASCAR’s premier series takes place at Kentucky Speedway.
Besides the obvious excitement surrounding an inaugural NASCAR Sprint Cup race, this particular stop is vitally important for a number of drivers. Daytona hosted a wild opener to the Race to the Chase, with David Ragan’s win pushing the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup’s Wild Card spots to the forefront.
The built-in unknowns of Kentucky add intrigue to the already dramatic playoff push.
For the NASCAR Nationwide Series and NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, this is business as usual. The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series has been racing at Kentucky since 2000, the NASCAR Nationwide bunch since 2001.
Both series will continue its decade-long Kentucky tradition. The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series will run Thursday night, in the UNOH 225. The NASCAR Nationwide Series will run Friday night, in the Feed The Children 300.
Storylines for all three series follow…
NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES
At Long Last, Ragan Triumphs
Ragan's win impressive at Daytona, in line for Chase now
David Ragan’s story is one of perseverance.
Toiling in the shadows of three teammates – Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle – who have won at least one NASCAR national series championship, Ragan was often an afterthought.
Ragan has worked with three different crew chiefs in the last three seasons, a tough assignment in a sport where continuity is integral.
But, at Daytona, Ragan’s patience paid off. It took him 163 races – only 11 winners need more – to finally lock down his first victory.
Beyond that singular triumph, there’s a much broader storyline from the victory…
Ragan Now A Chase Contender
Ragan’s win immediately put him in the hunt for one of two Chase Wild Card spots.
After race No. 26, the top-10 drivers earn berths for the 12-driver Chase. Spots 11 and 12 go to those drivers outside the top 10 with the most wins, provided that they are in the top 20.
Currently, those Wild Cards would belong to Denny Hamlin (currently in 11th) and Ragan (17th).
If he does make the Chase, consider him a legitimate threat. A strong restrictor-plate racer, Ragan should contend at Talladega’s Chase race. Also, five intermediate tracks make up the Chase, a style firmly in Roush Fenway Racing’s wheelhouse.
Watch for Brad Keselowski, as well. He has a win, but currently resides outside the top 20. He’s 11 points outside the top 20, in 22nd.
Harvick Nabs Points Lead
Going into Daytona, Kevin Harvick already owned more wins than any other driver in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. Now, he owns more points than any other driver.
Harvick’s seventh-place finish, combined with Carl Edwards’ 37th place run at Daytona, gave Harvick the points lead for the first time since last September after Atlanta.
Edwards had held the points lead for 10 consecutive weeks.
Daytona Boosts Already Big Competition Figures
Last Saturday night’s race at Daytona saw a race-record 57 lead changes and a track-record 25 different leaders.
Those numbers ballooned already record-breaking figures. In 2011, there has been an average of 14 leaders and 31 lead changes per race, the most through 17 races in series history.
Additionally, Ragan became the 12th different winner in 17 races, the most since 2003.
Debut At Kentucky Speedway, Second In State
There’s not much history in Kentucky for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series; in fact it’s one-race long.
But there are some interesting names involved. The race took place at Corbin Speedway, a ½-mile dirt track in Corbin, Ky. on Aug. 29, 1954. NASCAR Hall of Famer Lee Petty won the event, and was one of only two drivers to finish on the lead lap. Hershel McGriff was the other.
A couple other notable participants: NASCAR Hall of Fame nominees Buck Baker (3rd) and Herb Thomas (4th).
Who’s The Favorite?
There are no statistics to go on at Kentucky, not on the NASCAR Sprint Cup side anyway.
But the track has been hosting races for 11 years, and there are NASCAR Nationwide and NASCAR Camping World Truck statistics to dig through.
The top pick: Joey Logano. He has won three consecutive NASCAR Nationwide Series races at Kentucky, all from the pole – the first driver in series history to do that.
Logano, who finished third last week at Daytona, is the guest on this week’s NASCAR national teleconference, Tuesday at noon.
Hope this week is better then last week on the fantasy front. I got crushed.
The second half has been a nightmare for me so far. :/
Some bad luck is striking that's for sure. This week might not be much better since I don't have any notes for Kentucky.
Quaker State 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
We’ve had a nice mix of races the last four weeks with a superspeedway that runs like a road course, a wide two-mile track, a road course and a superspeedway with restrictor-plate racing, but this week we get back to racing on a type of track that will ultimately decide who wins the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship. Whoever can prove that they are the best consistently on the type of track we'll see Saturday night will put them in a prime position to win the title.
Kentucky Speedway gets it’s first Cup race ever this week and it should be a fired up crowd filled mostly from folks from Ohio as the track is located near the Ohio River. The 1.5-mile track could best comparable to the old Las Vegas configuration and also comparable to the current Kansas Speedway layout.
Just before we got into the stretch of races at vastly different tracks, Kansas had a race run on June 5 that was won by Brad Keselowski. The race came down to fuel mileage, but was thoroughly dominated by Kurt Busch who sat on the pole and led four times for 152 of the 267 laps. Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin all ran very well too from Kansas.
We should expect a similar cast of characters to be contending for the win this week, but to dig deeper we can reference Michigan, Fontana and sprinkle in data from the higher banked 1.5 mile tracks like Las Vegas, Charlotte and Texas.
Kurt Busch is the driver to key on here, but right behind him are the Fenway-Roush drivers who thrive on these types of tracks. It’s no coincidence that Edwards lead in points has been taken over by Kevin Harvick over this stretch because he’s now had back-to-back races on tracks that aren’t his best, or rather, where he’s not considered the favorite.
If we look at all the tracks we consider to be relevant to Kentucky, no one has been better on all of them this year than Carl Edwards. He won at Vegas, finished sixth at Fontana, third at Texas, won the All-Star race, and was fifth at both Kansas and Michigan. Although none of that means that he will win this week, it does provide a pretty good resume to make him the favorite. Making the resume look even better is that Edwards has raced nine times at Kentucky between the Nationwide and Truck series and has taken home two trophies.
Matt Kenseth also has numbers similar to Edwards including wins at Texas and Dover this year and if we use some old school data, we can also fit his two Vegas wins under the old layout as a reference. This week, Kenseth also has the benefit of using a proven winner as he'll be using his winning Texas chassis.
The scary driver of all, though, may be Kurt Busch. After screaming at his crew and engine builders over the radio -- for all to hear -- during the Richmond race, there has been a noticeable change in their performance, most notably the horsepower and it was never more evident than at that Kansas race that they were becoming an elite team.
Denny Hamlin also used Kansas as a stepping stone to getting back to close to his 2010 form with his third-place run. He followed that race up with leading the most laps at Pocono and then finally winning a race at Michigan the ensuing week. He should be expected to be able to continue his upward swing this week.
Kevin Harvick is bringing an impressive car this week to Kentucky. It's the same car that he won with at Michigan last season and finished fifth at Pocono this year. He has swooped in and won three races already this season and has an inaugural Cup win under his belt already at Chicagoland. Harvick also won the first Nationwide race at Kentucky in 2001.
The inaugural King has been Jeff Gordon as he'll look to take the checkers for the first time on a track for the fourth time this Saturday night. Gordon has inaugural wins at Indianapolis, Fontana and Kansas. If we use Kansas as a barometer, Gordon should be considered even more to contend since he hasn't finished outside of the top-five there since 2006. In the June Kansas race Gordon finished fourth.
Even though Keselowski won Kansas as a 100/1 long shot, thanks to the race becoming a fuel mileage race, it’s more likely that this week’s race will come down to the heavyweights. However, Keselowski will be using the same car that he won with at Kansas.
Joey Logano is an interesting choice at 30/1 or higher this week just because he has won the last three Nationwide races at Kentucky from the pole. Granted, the cars are completely different, as is the competition, but that type of success and knowledge of the track should carry some kind of weight for the Cup race. Logano will be using his 11th-place Pocono car this week making its second start of the season.
Top-5 Finish prediction:
1) #99 Carl Edwards (6/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
3) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
4) #22 Kurt Busch (8/1)
5) #24 Jeff Gordon (12/1)
Kentucky Speedway hosts 1st-ever Sprint Cup race
By: Michael Hill
The 18th race of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series takes place at Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, Kentucky. This is the first ever NASCAR Sprint Series race at this track. The track has previously hosted ARCA, NASCAR and Indy Racing League racing annually since it opened in 2000. The creation of the event followed a lawsuit between Kentucky Speedway and NASCAR claiming that they violated federal antitrust laws in 2005. After four years, the former Kentucky Speedway owners dropped the lawsuit. On August 10, 2010, it was announced that the track would receive a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series event. This being the first race at this track, bettors should look to pick drivers that have performed well at the tracks most similar to this one so far this season, which are Michigan and Kansas.
Odds to Win Quaker State 400
Kurt Busch 7-to-1
Carl Edwards 7-to-1
Kyle Busch 8-to-1
Jimmie Johnson 8-to-1
Denny Hamlin 10-to-1
Jeff Gordon 10-to-1
Greg Biffle 12-to-1
Kevin Harvick 12-to-1
Matt Kenseth 12-to-1
Tony Stewart 12-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15-to-1
Clint Bowyer 20-to-1
Joey Logano 25-to-1
Kasey Kahne 25-to-1
Ryan Newman 30-to-1
The Chase for the Cup Standings
The top 12 (# - see below) drivers that are eligible to win the NASCAR Sprint series “Chase for the Cup” are as follows (with points behind first place).
1. Kevin Harvick -
2. Carl Edwards -5
3. Kyle Busch -10
4. Kurt Busch -16
5t. Matt Kenseth -22
5t. Jimmie Johnson -22
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. -52
8. Jeff Gordon -67
9. Clint Bowyer -81
10. Ryan Newman -88
Wild Card Spots
11. Denny Hamlin 495 Points
12. Tony Stewart 494 Points
# - NOTE: Prior to 2011 the Top 12 drivers that qualified for the “Chase for the Cup” was based only on points. HOWEVER, NASCAR changed the qualifying format starting with 2011. The 11th and 12th spots, the "wild cards," will be filled by the two drivers with the most victories ranked 11th-20th in the points standings. If there are no drivers ranked 11th through 20th with victories, the "wild-card" spots will be filled based on points. If there are multiple drivers tied in number of victories, points will be used as the tie-breaker.
Explanation of current standings: Since two drivers (Denny Hamlin, David Ragan) who sit in the 11-20 spots are tied each with one win, the “wild card” spots are determined by most points.
Drivers to Watch
Kurt Busch (7/1) - Busch had the best driver rating and led for 152 laps at Kansas last week, but a flaw in his dry-bank fueling system led to him falling back and eventually finishing ninth after winning the pole. He also won the pole at Michigan, but finished 11th. Busch the Kurt did race once here with Camping World Truck Series in 2000 and finished 29 of 36 drivers due to a crash. He owns a 8.0 average finish on intermediate tracks this year, all four being top-10 finishes.
Carl Edwards (7/1) - Edwards knows this track well, having raced here six times in the Nationwide Series, winning once and finishing second in his last race in 2010. Edwards has done very well at intermediates this year, finishing in the top-5 in three of the four races (4.3 average finish).
Kyle Busch (8/1) – Busch the Kyle has raced here four previous times with Nationwide series, finishing in the top-10 twice and leading for 311 laps. He has done poorly however at intermediate tracks this season, owning a 24.5 average finish in his four races.
Jimmie Johnson (8/1) - The five-time defending points champion struggled in his only start at Kentucky Speedway, finishing 20th while racing in the Nationwide Series in 2001. He also owns an unspectacular 14.8 average finish on intermediate tracks in 2011, with two top-10s and zero laps led.
Denny Hamlin (10/1) – Hamlin was the winner at Michigan and finished second at Kansas, so he is an excellent pick this week at 10-to-1 odds. Hamlin raced twice at Kentucky when he was in the Nationwide Series and finished third after winning the pole in his last race. Overall he has two wins and seven top-5s in his 18 combined races at Michigan and Kansas. Jeff Gordon (10/1) – Gordon has two wins this season, but has not done well at intermediate tracks, owning a 20.8 average finish with just one top-10. This will be Gordon’s first ever race at Kentucky, having never raced there while in the Nationwide Series.
Quaker State 400: NASCAR Betting Preview and Picks
By Greg Engle
For the first time since 2001, the NASCAR Sprint Series is heading to parts unknown. Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway marks the first time in a decade that NASCAR will debut its Sprint Cup series at a track.
With no past records or statistics on this track, picking a winner can be a tough task for NASCAR bettors. The best thing to keep in mind is that the track has been hosting races for 11 years, and there are NASCAR Nationwide and NASCAR Camping World Truck statistics to look at.
In recent years, no one has dominated those numbers more than Joey Logano. Logano has won the last three Nationwide Series races at Kentucky Speedway and, coming off a third-place finish at Daytona last week, has a ton of momentum.
“I'd say I've got a little bit of an advantage, but I think a lot of it is going to come down to getting your car good,” Logano told reporters. “I think my big advantage that I have is I just know what I need to make the car go faster. I know what I need when the race starts and all that. I think that's an advantage that I might have there. “
There is a great equalizer, however. Many teams were at the 1.5-mile track testing all day Thursday and that information will filter its way across the garage.
“These guys are good,” Logano said of his fellow Sprint Cup drivers. “They're going to know what they need and they're going to know how to make speed pretty damn quick out there. It's not going to take them long. A lot of guys have raced here before or at least tested here quite a few times, so they're going to figure it out pretty quick. And with that test day we're going to have plenty of practice, and we'll have the test day and we have our regular practice. We're going to have plenty of laps out there before the race starts.”
Carl Edwards could easily go to victory lane here Saturday. Coming off a miserable finish at Daytona and the loss of his points lead, Edwards will be looking for redemption. He won a truck series race here in 2003, a Nationwide race in 2005 and could use that experience to do so again.
If you’re looking for a spoiler this weekend, look no farther than Kevin Harvick. He took the lead in the points after surviving the carnage at Daytona with a seventh place finish last week. He won the inaugural Nationwide race at Kentucky in 2001 and is out to score another inaugural win, this time in the Sprint Cup Series.
This week’s prime-time matchup pits Kyle Busch against Greg Biffle. Busch has a Nationwide win here in 2004, while Biffle won the inaugural truck series race in 2000. Both drivers need solid performances, but they both need to finish. Biffle’s wife gave birth to their first child Thursday and that could actually be the difference here. Look for Biffle to outrun Busch Saturday, if he isn't driving cautious with his expanding family on his mind.
Jimmie Johnson vs. Tony Stewart: They are having rotten seasons but both could break out and have strong finishes any week. Johnson and Stewart have decent records at other 1.5-mile tracks but Stewart always tends to run better when the summer heats up. Bet on him to finish ahead of Johnson Saturday.
Bottom line: Feeling lucky? Take a look a Jeff Gordon. Gordon will attempt to be “first in the first” for the fourth time. Among Gordon's 84 career victories are three inaugural event wins at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in 1994, Auto Club Speedway in 1997, and Kansas Speedway in 2001 (four other tracks have been added to schedule since 1994 with no other driver winning multiple inaugural races at Las Vegas, Texas, Chicago, Homestead). Saturday night's Quaker State 400 marks the first visit for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series to Kentucky, and it could also mark the fourth trip to Victory Lane in a first-time event for Gordon.
Favorites:
Joey Logano (+2500)
Carl Edwards(+700)
Tony Stewart(+1200)
NASCAR Quaker State 400 Betting Preview
By: Adam Markowitz
The last time NASCAR added a new course to its schedule was back in 2001. Now, for the first time in the sport's history, Kentucky Speedway will host a Sprint Cup Series race on Saturday night, as some of the best drivers in the world duke it out in Quaker State 400 betting action!
This race from Sparta, KY is slated to kick off at 4:36 p.m. (PT) on July 9, and live television coverage will be available on TNT.
Kentucky Speedway is just like a lot of the other racetracks that the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visits on a regular basis. The track is a 1.5 mile tri-oval, and 267 laps are scheduled to be run.
However, any time there is a new track that has to be dealt with, there are inevitably going to be plenty of adjustments that have to be made. If it's any indicator, the men that won the last two races at brand new tracks in NASCAR were Jeff Gordon at the 2001 Protection One 400 at Kansas Speedway and Kevin Harvick at the 2001 Tropicana 400 at Chicagoland Speedway.
There is definitely some good news for a ton of drivers in this race on Saturday night. Many have had experience running here at Kentucky Speedway, though none, save for testing, have done so with their Sprint Cup cars.
The most decorated driver in the history of this track is Joey Logano, who we can find a great price on at plus 3000 at The Greek for Saturday's race. The NASCAR odds are definitely on Logano's side if he can figure out how to duplicate his efforts in Sparta over the course of the last three years in the Nationwide Series.
The driver of the No. 20 Home Depot car won the 2008, 2009, and 2010 Meijer 300's, the race for the Nationwide Series that has been here at Kentucky Speedway since 2001.
Logano is also in fine form after finishing in third place last week at the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway, and he'll hope to use that excellent finish as momentum to guide him to the front of the pack again this week.
Other notable winners of Nationwide races in this race include the aforementioned Harvick (2001), Kyle Busch (2004), and Carl Edwards (2005). Edwards and Busch are both front runners for the Chase for the Championship this year, and both have NASCAR betting lines of plus 800 at The Greek for this race on Saturday. These three drivers are all in the Top 3 of the Sprint Cup standings coming into Saturday as well.
Edwards also proved to be victorious on this tri-oval in 2003 at the Built Ford Tough 225 in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series.
Last weekend at the Coke Zero 400, David Ragan claimed his first Sprint Cup victory, but his odds to win the Quaker State 400 are awfully long at plus 4000.
If there is a driver that you should be thinking about at those types of odds though, why not Juan Pablo Montoya? We know that the former Indy Car star hasn't always been great in the Sprint Cup, but he is one of the few drivers with extensive experience here at Kentucky Speedway, having run here in at the Kentucky Indy 300.
The first race ever at Kentucky Speedway should be a fantastic one as far as Mother Nature is concerned. Temperatures should be in the low-80s at the outset of the race and could dip into the low-70s by its conclusion. No rain is in the forecast.
Next week, the boys of NASCAR head to Loudon, NH for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301.
NASCAR Practice Notes & Driver Ratings
This Week's Race: Quaker State 400 from Kentucky Speedway
Top 10 Driver Rating Following All Kentucky Practice Sessions
Rating Driver Odds Test 1 Test 2 Practice STP 400*
1 Kurt Busch 8/1 19th 2nd 3rd 9th
Notes: Dominated Kansas race leading 152 of the 267 laps; using 14th-place Dover car.
2 Jimmie Johnson 8/1 1st 6th 5th 7th
Notes: Had his best practice of season on 1.5-mile tracks; using Michigan chassis this week.
3 Kyle Busch 8/1 4th 1st 1st 12th
Notes: Was the star of Thursday’s testing and Friday’s practice; using Kansas chassis.
4 Carl Edwards 6/1 20th 3rd 7th 5th
Notes: No one better on 1.5 and 2-mile tracks this season; using 16th-place Charlotte car.
5 Tony Stewart 12/1 28th 12th 9th 8th
Notes: Brought Las Vegas chassis that led four times for 163 laps and settled for runner-up.
6 Jeff Gordon 10/1 7th 8th 14th 4th
Notes: Has won three inaugural races: Indianapolis (1994), Fontana (1997) and Kansas (2001).
7 Matt Kenseth 8/1 17th 27th 13th 6th
Notes: Won at the higher banked 1.5-mile track at Texas; using runner-up Michigan chassis.
8 Denny Hamlin 10/1 15th 13th 26th 3rd
Notes: Changed motors and will start from the rear; strong Kansas and Michigan runs translate well.
9 Kevin Harvick 12/1 25th 36th 19th 11th
Notes: Won inaugural Nationwide series Kentucky race in 2001; using winning Michigan car from 2010.
10 Brad Keselowski 60/1 18th 31st 6th 1st
Notes: Second best 10 consecutive lap average in practice; using winning Kansas chassis.
Note: Because this is the first Cup race ever run on at Kentucky, NASCAR allowed teams to have two test sessions on Thursday prior to Friday’s scheduled practices and qualifying. Most teams used their back-up cars for the testing. Rain washed away Friday’s first practice and qualifying. Starting lineup will be set by practice speeds.
* Results from the June 5, 2011 race at Kansas are relevant this week because both 1.5-mile tracks are banked similar.