Michigan 400 Betting News and Notes

Michigan - Driver Tale of the Tape

Greg Biffle (No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford Fusion)

· Four wins, ten top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.545, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.796, series-best
· Driver Rating of 101.8, second-best
· 311 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.178, fifth-fastest
· 3271 Laps in the Top 15 (76.5), third-most
· 924 Quality Passes, third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Three wins, five top fives, ten top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 20.273, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.566, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.9, 10th-best
· 186 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.543, 13th-fastest
· 2749 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3), ninth-most
· 732 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Ty Dillon (No. 95 Circle Sport-Leavine Family Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One top 20
· Average finish of 14.000, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.841, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.8, 11th-best
· 4 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.994, series-fastest
· 104 Laps in the Top 15 (75.4), fourth-most
· 25 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Two wins, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.045, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.060, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.6, fifth-best
· 205 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.159, sixth-fastest
· 2977 Laps in the Top 15 (69.6), fifth-most
· 933 Quality Passes, second-most

Carl Edwards (No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, nine top fives, 16 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 9.636, series-best
· Average Running Position of 10.943, third-best
· Driver Rating of 101.4, third-best
· 215 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.245, fourth-fastest
· 3292 Laps in the Top 15 (77.0), second-most
· 951 Quality Passes, series-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 14.600, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.525, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.8, 12th-best
· 105 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.640, 12th-fastest
· 2321 Laps in the Top 15 (59.9), 10th-most
· 753 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One win, eight top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.864, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.596, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.8, eighth-best
· 187 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.952, eighth-fastest
· 2475 Laps in the Top 15 (57.9), 12th-most
· 726 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, five top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.500, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.441, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 99.8, fourth-best
· 421 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.513, second-fastest
· 2944 Laps in the Top 15 (68.8.), sixth-most
· 781 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, eight top fives, ten top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 16.909, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.473, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.8, 13th-best
· 184 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.920, ninth-fastest
· 2392 Laps in the Top 15 (55.9), 13th-most
· 795 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Three wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 10.818, second-best
· Average Running Position of 10.905, second-best
· Driver Rating of 104.2, series-best
· 249 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.344, third-fastest
· 3325 Laps in the Top 15 (77.7), series-most
· 912 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Three top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 13.692, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.311, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 91.2, ninth-best
· 59 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.874, 10th-fastest
· 1674 Laps in the Top 15 (65.9), eighth-most
· 464 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· One win, three top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.643, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 13.739, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 93.0, sixth-best
· 83 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.975, seventh-fastest
1633 Laps in the Top 15 (59.6), 11th-most
· 461 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One win, 12 top fives, 20 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.550, third-best
· Average Running Position of 13.498, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.9, seventh-best
· 104 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 178.670, 11th-fastest
· 2661 Laps in the Top 15 (68.6), seventh-most
· 756 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Michigan 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

We can expect to see some different type of racing this week at Michigan International Raceway that may provide a different type of winner thanks to NASCAR reducing the 2016 low downforce package even more. The spoiler will be reduced from 3.5 inches to 2.5 inches and the splitter will be cut down two inches. The trial package will also run at Kentucky Speedway on July 9, which is where the new low down force package was introduced last season.

Joe Gibbs Racing was way ahead of the game when last season when the first set of changes were made and they continued that run this year winning seven of the eight races prior to Kurt Busch winning at Pocono on Monday. They still will likely have an edge this week, but it's possible that several other organizations could benefit. The cars will be looser around the corners putting even more of a premium on drivers ability to handle their cars on entry and exits.

So before we get into drivers who have a nice past history at Michigan and who are rolling right now, we should probably identify a couple drivers that handle loose cars very well. A few off the top of my head that fit the criteria over recent years are Dale Earnhartdt Jr, Kasey Kahne, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski. The looser, the better for them.

The thing I like about races at the fast and wide 2-mile D-shaped oval of Michigan is that manufacturers take center stage with it being in the backyard of Motor City. All the executives from Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota root their brand loud and proud with hopes of making it to the winners circle.

The Ford executives have done the most cheering with 34 Michigan wins all-time, but none since 2013. The guys in bow-ties have won 23 times, including three of the past four. Toyota, the new guys on the block who make its Camry brand in Georgetown, Kentucky, have won five times, including the last race there (Matt Kenseth) in August.

Michigan is the sister track of California Speedway, where Jimmie Johnson won at in March, but the two tracks don't really race alike, or at least results comparison between the two over the years don't suggest it. Johnson has six wins in 22 starts at his home track in California, but his 2014 win at Michigan is his only victory there in 28 starts. He's the extreme example of the two tracks not really being the same, although looking identical.

One of the links we can look at is the success of Kevin Harvick over the years at both places. He's only got one win at each, 2010 at Fontana and 2011 at Michigan while driving for Richard Childress Racing. Since moving to Stewart Haas Racing in 2014, he's been on an incredible run at both places. No wins, but a whole bunch of runner-ups. I mean, like a whole bunch.

He's finished second in the past two Fontana races, including leading the most laps (142) in March. At Michigan, he's been second in five of the past six races there. The only time he didn't finish second over that span was last June in the rain-shortened event when he led a race-high 63 laps but a flat tire late led to a 29th-place finish.

Harvick only has one win this season (Phoenix), but he's had three other second-place finishes. He had his momentum derailed a bit last season when the package was introduced at Kentucky, but I think his obvious affection for the track will give him edge this week.

The most consistent performer over the years has been Edwards with a 9.6 average finish in 23 starts that includes two wins, but most that success came with driving for Jack Roush who has a track-best 13 wins as an owner on his home track. Kenseth also won twice for Roush before winning last winning fall for JGR. His 10.1 average finish in 33 starts is second-best to Edwards. Greg Biffle leads all active drivers with four wins, the last coming in 2013, which was also his last top-five there.

Earnhardt Jr. has two Michigan wins and comes off a solid second-place run at Pocono, his fourth runner-up of the season. The horsepower required at Pocono is also a necessity at Michigan, so it's not a bad idea to look at Monday's results to add into any betting equation this week.

Chase Elliott came home with his fifth top-five of the season Monday and had the look of a winner. He's got 10 top-10s this season -- only two drivers have more (Harvick 11, Kurt Busch 12). He's the most polished rookie I've seen in NASCAR since Jimmie Johnson won three races as a rookie in 2002.

Joey Logano has been ninth or better in his past six Michigan races, including a 2013 win. Surprisingly, he's still winless this season after having a series high six wins in 2015. He made the transition to the new package nicely last season being the only non-JGR driver to crack the top-5 at Kentucky.

Penske teammate Keselowski could be a nice look this week as he wants to win on his home track more than any other. He had a career-best third-place in 2011 and 2014 and is on a run of finishing 13th or better in nine straight there. He's already got two wins this season and he'll be excited about the new package.

Kurt Busch won this race last season (rain shortened), his third at Michigan. It was his last win until Monday at Pocono. He has been amazing example of consistency this season with a series leading 12 top-10s. I expect his teammate Harvick to be very good Sunday and Busch to be almost as sharp.

The final piece of the handicapping equation won't come until Saturday's final two practices, but I'm feeling good early on about Harvick to finally crack the win column after so many second-place finishes.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
3) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (8/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
5) #20 Joey Logano (10/1)

NASCAR Betting Odds For Drivers To Win the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan
By Greg Engle
Examiner.com

NASCAR heads a little further north this week to the 2-mile oval at Michigan International Speedway. It’s a short week for the series after rain forced the race at Pocono to be run Monday. Michigan is known for its high speeds and wide racing groove, but there will be a new factor this week as NASCAR has instituted new low downforce rules that could make for a wild 400 miles.

Here are our favorites for Sunday’s fifteenth race of the year for your betting or fantasy racing leagues. Driver Ratings are compiled from 2005-2015 races (22 total) among active drivers at Michigan International Speedway. The Driver Rating is a number based on a formula developed by NASCAR which combines "loop data" elements such as average running position, average speed under green, number of fastest laps, and other stats. There is a maximum of 150 points that a driver can earn for each race. The odds are current as of Wednesday.

Kurt Busch (12-1) was among our favorites last week at Pocono and he delivered, winning his first race of the season and his third at Pocono. He also has three wins at Michigan tying him with one other driver for the most wins among active participants. Busch has the 10th best driver rating among the field 90.9, but he’s the defending winner of this race and with the momentum of last Monday’s Pocono win could make it two in a row Sunday.

Matt Kenseth (7-1) is the driver tied with Kurt Busch for the most wins here. Kenseth won the August race at Michigan the last time the series was here in dominating fashion leading 146 of the 200 laps. He owns the highest driver rating in the field 104.2 and the confidence to add another MIS win to his resume Sunday.

Carl Edwards (8-1) is teammates with Kenseth. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota’s have been the class of the field almost everywhere this season. Edwards has two wins here, the third highest driver rating, 101.4, and led the second most laps in this race last year, 41, only to fade near the end and come home 12th. If he can put together a little better race than he had last season he may just secure a third Michigan win.

Kevin Harvick (5-1) led the most laps in this race last season, 63, only to see his victory snatched by a loose wheel. He came back to finish second in the August race. Harvick has a win here and the eighth highest driver rating in the field, 92.8. If he avoids the trouble he had in this race last year, Harvick could go all the way Sunday.

Joey Logano (7-1) won here in 2013. He has the sixth highest driver rating, 93.0, and was fifth in this race last year. At times this season Logano has been a contender and there is little doubt that he will be a contender Sunday.

OTHERS: Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18-1) has two wins here and the fifth highest driver rating in the field, 98.6. He was second in this race last year and could be hard to beat Sunday. Jimmie Johnson (7-1) has had some rough weeks and his last three outings at Michigan haven’t exactly been memorable. However, he won here in 2014, has the fourth highest driver rating in the field, 99.8. If Johnson is on his game Sunday he could be hard to beat.

NASCAR at Michigan Betting Odds, Driver Previews
By Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

Kevin Harvick has just one win on the season and his lone win at Michigan International Speedway came in 2010, but it's what he's done in the past three seasons during six races on the wide 2-mile layout that forced the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to make him the 5-to-1 favorite to win Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400.

Kevin Harvick has just one win on the season and his lone win at Michigan International Speedway came in 2010, but it's what he's done in the past three seasons during six races on the wide 2-mile layout that forced the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to make him the 5-to-1 favorite to win Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400.

Harvick has been runner-up in five of the past six races at Michigan and the only time he didn't finish second over that span (this race last June), he led the most laps (63) before a flat tire relegated him to a 29th-place finish. He may have eventually erased the one lap deficit had rain not shortened the event by 62 laps, a race won by teammate Kurt Busch.

Sunday's race will feature changes to the low downforce package on a trial basis with the spoiler being reduced from 3.5 inches to 2.5 inches and the splitter will be cut down two inches. The effect will make the cars much looser around turns on one of the fastest tracks on the circuit, which will put even more of a premium on the drivers ability and they all seem to like it better that way. Kentucky Speedway will also feature this package next month.

Let's take a look at all the odds to win from the Westgate and how each of the drivers have fared at Michigan over their careers:
nday, June 12, 1:18 pm ET

Kevin HARVICK 5/1 - The season point leader has a series-best 7.3 average finish position, one of only two drivers below a double-digit average. Although past results might not show that Michigan's sister track at Fontana is similar, they are almost identical layouts. Harvick finished second in the March 20 Fontana race leading a race-high 142 laps. He also finished second there last season leading 34 laps.

Martin TRUEX JR 7/1 - After a hiccup at Pocono last week, he gets to go back to an oval which suits his style best. Last season he finished third in both races. His career best finishes came in 2007 when he was runner-up in both events. Expect him to lead his fare share of laps; he's led a series-best 809 laps this season.

Jimmie JOHNSON 7/1 - He's the perfect example of a driver faring well at his home track at Fontana with six wins in 22 starts, including the March race, but struggling at Michigan with only one win in 28 starts. To be fair, struggling might not be the proper term because he has led a series high 633 laps there, but has had a variety of late race mishaps derail what looked to be a few victories.

“It's been a tough track for the No. 48 Lowe’s team historically," Johnson said. "We’ve had plenty of opportunities to win this race in the past and have figured out how to lose it with five to go. You want to win here for Chevrolet. I was pretty disappointed last weekend at Pocono to run up front and then have it end the way it did. I’m looking forward to this weekend and then a much needed off-weekend for Father’s Day.”

Matt KENSETH 7/1 - He's a three-time winner, including the last race there in August. Only one active driver has been as consistent as him over his career. He's got a 10.1 average finish in 33 starts that includes 14 top-fives.

Joey LOGANO 7/1 - This is definitely his type of track and he's on a run of finishing ninth or better in six straight races there, including a 2013 win, the last win by a Ford. Ford has won a track record 34 times in what is essentially bragging rights for the manufacturers in the backyard of Motor City. He has yet to win this season after winning a series best six times in 2015.

Kyle BUSCH 8/1 - He won in 2011, but has had only one top-five there in eight races since, including five finishes of 31st or worse, which has ballooned his average finish position to 19.5 over 22 career starts. This is why despite a series-leading three wins that odds this high are offered on him. However, there should be optimism for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver because the last time a mid-season package adjustment was made, Busch won at Kentucky and his three teammates finished in the top-five behind him.

Carl EDWARDS 8/1 - He leads all active drivers with a 9.6 average finish in 23 starts which includes two wins, the last coming in 2008 when he drove for Roush Fenway Racing. However, his fifth-place in 2011 was his last top-five — 10 Michigan races ago. On the 1.5 and 2-mile tracks where the low downforce package is a big deal, he has only one top-five (fifth at Atlanta).

Brad KESELOWSKI 8/1 - This is his home track and he wants a win bad there. He's been one of the most consistent there lately with finishes of 13th or better in his last nine starts. His best was runner-up in 2011. He's been one of the more vocal drivers about how he loves having more control of his car with less downforce. He should be a great play in all driver match-ups and fantasy lineups this week and will have a nice look to grab his first home win.

Kurt BUSCH 12/1 - His last win before Pocono last week came in this race last season. It was his third win in 30 starts (20.57 average finish). He's had Motor City executives from all branches high fiving him as he's won in a Ford (2003), Dodge (2007) and Chevrolet at Michigan. He currently leads the series with 12 top-10 finishes and his 8.4 average finish through 14 races is second-best to teammate Harvick.

Denny HAMLIN 18/1 - He won back-to-back spring races in 2010 and 2011 and had a runner-up sandwiched in between. He didn't have another top-five until nine races later last fall. He had a strong fourth-place finish at Charlotte two weeks ago which should be an indication that he's got enough speed to get around competitively this week. He finished third at Kentucky last year when the aero-package was first adjusted in July.

Dale EARNHARDT JR 18/1 - He's been one of the best at Michigan over the past decade with an 11.5 average finish, including wins in 2008 and 2012. He's finished in the top-10 in his last four starts there and comes off a runner-up at Pocono, his fourth runner-up of 2016.

Chase ELLIOTT 18/1 - He might be the most impressive rookie since Johnson in 2002. Only Harvick and Kurt Busch have more top-10s than his 10 in 14 starts. This will be his Cup debut at Michigan, but he did finish second there in last season in the Xfinity Series. A win is coming soon.

Kyle LARSON 25/1 - He'll be without crew chief Chad Johnston this week due to a lug nut infraction Monday at Pocono. He had a career-best eighth-place in his rookie year and was 13th last fall.

Kasey KAHNE 40/1 - He won in 2006 and has a 15.7 average finish in 24 starts.

Austin DILLON 60/1 - Had a career-best fourth last fall and has a 17.9 average in seven starts.

Ryan NEWMAN 80/1 - Two-time winner, but that was a long time ago (2003, 2004) when he was part of Team Penske. He's only had one top-five in his past 20 starts there.

Greg BIFFLE 80/1 - He's the active leader with four wins, which has helped Roush Fenway Racing to a track record 13 wins all-time. Last season he finished 36th in the spring and 23rd in the fall.

Ryan BLANEY 80/1 - He finished 24th in both races last season, but he's currently averaging a 10.2 finish over his last five starts on the schedule. He's got the Team Penske power behind him and he knows what to do with it.

Jamie McMURRAY 100/1 - An 18.5 average finish in 26 starts with one top-five.

Tony STEWART 100/1 - Won his only race during his second Cup season in 2000, but has averaged a 12.4 finish over 32 career starts. Last week he was on his way to his best finish of the season running in the top-10 most of the day until being involved in an accident. His car actually looked almost as good as teammates Harvick and Busch.

Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1 - A 21.3 average finish in six starts. He's hoping the home track of Jack Roush can work some old magic for the team. The encouraging sign for him is that he finished fifth at Fontana in March.

Paul MENARD 100/1 - This has been one of his better tracks over the past four seasons with seven straight races finishing 14th or better, including three straight fourth-place finishes from 2013-14.

Trevor BAYNE 300/1 - A 23.4 average finish in 10 starts with a career best ninth in this race last season.

AJ ALLMENDINGER 500/1 - Searching for his first top-10. In 15 starts, he's averaged a 21st-place finish.

Aric ALMIROLA 500/1 - A 19.9 average finish in eight starts, including career-best 14th last fall.

Clint BOWYER 500/1 - This was always one of his better tracks. From 2011 to last spring he went nine straight races with a top-10. He's done an amazing job this season taking his underfunded jalopy to a 23rd-place average finish. Next year in the No. 14 we get the real Bowyer back.

Danica PATRICK 500/1 - She's averaging a 23.6 average finish this season as teammates of Harvick and Busch. Her Michigan average is much better at 18.7 in six starts.

Casey MEARS 500/1 - A 22.9 average finish in 25 starts with a career-best fourth-place in 2007.

Chris BUESCHER 1000/1 - Makes his Michigan Cup debut, but has good experience with it finishing fourth in the Xfinity Series last year and winning an ARCA race in 2012.

FIELD 500/1 - Save your money for a better Father's Day gift next week rather than making this terrible wager, or try a combination of Harvick, Keselowski or Earnhardt to win instead.

Drivers to Watch - Michigan
By Sportsbook.ag

Kurt Busch will be looking to win his second consecutive FireKeepers Casino 400 when the Sprint Cup drivers race in Michigan on Sunday. Last year’s race was, however, a bit obscure, as it was shortened to 138 laps due to bad weather. Hopefully it’s a bit nicer this weekend and the drivers will be able to go the distance. Busch emerged as the winner in the shortened race last year, finishing in 2:21:5. He has about as good of a chance as any to win again on Sunday. It wasn’t his first time winning here either, as he was victorious in 2003 as well.

Other guys to watch out for are Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Denny Hamlin. Earnhardt Jr. won this race in 2008 and 2012 and Hamlin won in 2010 and 2011. Greg Biffle is also a driver to keep an eye on here. He won this race in both 2005 and 2013 and all of these guys will be hungry to win their third on Sunday.

With that out of the way let’s now take a look at who are some of the better picks to be entering victory lane this weekend:

Drivers to Watch

Kurt Busch (12/1) - As previously mentioned, Kurt Busch is coming off of a victory in this race and he also happened to have won it back in 2003 as well. He is extremely comfortable at Michigan International Speedway and that makes it very hard to pass him up at 12-to-1 on Sunday. A lot of drivers tend to have their tracks and this is just one of them for Busch. He also happens to be having a solid season and is coming into this race after winning last week’s Axalta ‘We Paint Winners’ 400. That victory was Busch’s first of the season, but he does have four other top-five finishes and 12 top-10 finishes as well. He’s a very good value play for this race.

Denny Hamlin (15/1) - Hamlin has not had the type of season that he would have hoped for, but he is now going to get a chance to race at one of his best tracks. Like Busch, Hamlin has won this race twice in his career and he can really use another victory on Sunday. His past few trips to Michigan haven’t been kind to him, but there’s always a good chance that he can find his groove this weekend. He’s receiving some favorable odds at 15-to-1 and also has two top-10 finishes over his past three races. It’d be wise to not look too far into Hamlin’s most recent appearances on this track, as he could really end up paying off big on Sunday.

Chase Elliott (15/1) - Elliott has not yet won a race this year, but he has been incredibly impressive for a rookie. Elliott came in fourth place in last week’s Axalta ‘We Paint Winners’ 400 and that was his fifth straight top-10 finish. He also has five top-five finishes in his past eight outings, which shows that he truly knows how to find his way to the front of the pack. Elliott is not too far away from winning his first race and this could just be the week for him. While a few drivers have won this race twice, none of them have truly dominated the track and that will mean this thing is going to be wide open on Sunday. He’s getting some good value at 15-to-1 and is worth putting a unit or two on.

Danica Patrick (300/1) - When looking for a dark horse to win this race, one person that stands out is Danica Patrick. Patrick has never won a Sprint Cup race in her career, but she has been pretty good at Michigan over the years. Patrick has never finished worse than 17th on this track and she is getting some absurd odds at 300-to-1. With her ability to avoid major mistakes in Michigan, she may be worth a half-unit this weekend. It’d certainly make for a huge payday and crazier things have happened.

Michigan Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin takes a look at some notes and statistics for Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

Who's HOT at Michigan

• Kevin Harvick has finished second in five of the last six races.
• Joey Logano (2013 August winner) is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last six races.
• Brad Keselowski is tied with Harvick for the best average finish in the eight races since Michigan was repaved.
• Matt Kenseth posted a 2.5 average finish in the two races last season, including a win in the August race.
• Last week's winner Kurt Busch won this event last season.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top 10 in six of the last eight races, including a win in this event in 2012.
• Paul Menard has the second-best average finish (6.4) in the last five races.
• Martin Truex Jr. finished third in both races last season.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Michigan

• Chase Elliott has finished in the top 10 in the last five races and ranks six in average finish (10.4) in the 12 races with the lower downforce package. This weekend will feature an updated rules package that includes the spoiler being shortened from 3.5 inches to 2.5 inches.
• Jimmie Johnson, winner of the race at Auto Club Speedway earlier this season, has recorded two top 10s in the last four races, including a win in this event in 2014.
• Carl Edwards (9.5), Denny Hamlin (11.8.) and Ryan Newman (11.2) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the last four races at 2-mile speedways (Auto Club and Michigan).
• Truex, Austin Dillon (finished fourth last August), Kyle Larson and Aric Almirola each participated in the Goodyear Tire test.
• Ryan Blaney, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and AJ Allmendinger each rank in the top 10 in points scored in the last five races of the season. Stenhouse and Allmendinger each finished in the top 10 at Auto Club Speedway in March.
• Greg Biffle has posted two wins since the repave, but has failed to lead a lap in the last four races where he has a 22.2 average finish.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Brad Keselowski
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
John Singler: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Michigan

Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in the last six Michigan races, including a win in the 2013 August race. Logano also leads all drivers with a 5.8 average finish in the last four races at 2-mile speedways (Michigan and Auto Club).

Paul Menard finished 12th last August at Michigan to snap a streak of four straight top 10s, which included a run of three consecutive fourth-place finishes. Menard finished 15th earlier this season at Auto Club, which is his worst finish in the last four races at 2-mile speedways. This weekend, Menard will be behind the wheel of a new car (chassis No. 553) in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Kevin Harvick has finished second in five of the last six races at Michigan. He led 63 laps in this event last year, but was forced to pit road after suffering a flat-right front tire and finished 29th in the rain-shortened race. Harvick has also finished second in his last two starts at the 2-mile Auto Club Speedway where he led 142 laps in March. This weekend, Harvick will drive the same car (chassis No. 884) that he last finished second with last fall at Texas Motor Speedway.

Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in his last four starts at Michigan. He also ranks second in average finish (6.2) among all drivers that have raced in all of the last four races at 2-mile speedways (Auto Club and Michigan). Keselowski's only win at MIS or ACS came in 2015, at Auto Club.

Kasey Kahne scored his last of 10 top 10s at Michigan in this event in 2014, in fifth. Kahne won the pole for this event in 2015 and finished 15th. He's yet to finish in the top 10 in his last four starts at 2-mile speedways (Auto Club and Michigan), but has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three starts on the season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top 10 in six of his last eight starts at Michigan, including a win in this event in 2012. He finished 11th at Auto Club Speedway in March, to snap a streak of five consecutive top 10s at 2-mile speedways (ACS and Michigan).

Ryan Newman is coming off his first top 10 (eighth) in three Michigan starts with Richard Childress Racing. It also marked his eighth overall top 10 - first since 2012 - in 29 Michigan starts. This weekend, Newman will pilot a new car (chassis No. 551) in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Kurt Busch scored his third Michigan win last year in this even, which was shortened on lap 138 due to rain. The victory is his only top 10 in four track starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. This weekend, Busch will pilot chassis No. 978 in the FireKeepers Casino 400, which was updated since contact with the wall in practice at Auto Club Speedway earlier this season.

Ty Dillon has made one Sprint Cup start at Michigan, finishing 14th in this event last season. This weekend, Dillon will pilot chassis No. 491, which was prepared by Richard Childress Racing and has been previously raced by the Nos. 27 and 31 teams, including a top-10 finish at Texas Motor Speedway in April 2015.

Jamie McMurray finished seventh in this event last season - shortened by rain - for his only top 10 in his last 14 Michigan starts. McMurray finished 10th at Auto Club Speedway in March for his second top 10 in his last three starts at 2-mile speedways (ACS and Michigan).

Clint Bowyer finished 41st last August to snap a streak of nine consecutive top 10s at Michigan. Bowyer finished 18th at Auto Club Speedway in his first starts at a 2-mile speedway with HScott Motorsports.

Denny Hamlin finished fifth last August to give him a 7.7 average finish in his last three starts at Michigan. Hamlin started third and finished third earlier this season at the 2-mile Auto Club Speedway.

Matt Kenseth is coming off his third win at Michigan after leading 146 laps last August. The win marked Kenseth' second consecutive top five and third top 10 in six track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Carl Edwards finished sixth last August for his first top 10 in two Michigan starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. He led 41 laps in this event last season, which was shortened by rain, en route to a 12th-place finish. Edwards, who scored his last of two Michigan wins with Roush Fenway Racing in 2008, finished seventh earlier this season at the 2-mile Auto Club Speedway.

Austin Dillon finished fourth last August for his first top 10 in seven Michigan starts. Dillon, who participated in last month's Goodyear Tire test at MIS, will debut a new car (chassis No. 552) in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Martin Truex Jr. finished third in both races last season at Michigan. He finished 32nd at Auto Club Speedway in March to snap a streak of three consecutive top 10s at 2-mile speedways (ACS and Michigan). Truex participated in last month's Goodyear Tire test at MIS.

Greg Biffle, a four time Michigan winner, has finished in the top 10 once (2014 August race) in the last four races at the track. Biffle's 10th-place finish in 2014 is his only top 10 in the last seven races at 2-mile speedways (Auto Club and Michigan).

Danica Patrick has yet to finish in the top 10 in six starts at Michigan. Her best finish came in this event in 2013.

Tony Stewart posted a 24.5 average finish last season in the two races at Michigan. His last of 20 top 10s in 32 starts came in this event in 2013, in fifth. This weekend, Stewart will return in the same car (chassis No. 710) that he last finished 35th at Kansas Speedway last fall.

Kyle Larson has posted a 20.2 average finish in four starts at Michigan. His best finish came in this event in 2014, in eighth. Larson participated in last month's Goodyear Tire test at MIS.