Notifications
Clear all

AAA 400 Drive for Autism Betting News and Notes

4 Posts
1 Users
0 Likes
2,625 Views
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

AAA 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

This week we get the first race of the season in the northeastern part of the country with the AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway's 1-mile high-banked concrete layout known as the Monster Mile. It's a fast track track with lots of room and multiple grooves, but it's still kind of a short track so drivers get in the way of each other and keep things interesting. All drivers respect the Monster.

“It’s called the Monster Mile for a reason – the track can chew up cars and spit them out," said 2011 Dover winner Kurt Busch. "It’s because of those tough transitions into the corners with the high banking and even the high-banked straightaways. It’s tough to do that sharp of a turn on a mile racetrack. It’s like you literally jump down into the corner and then jump back up out of the corner onto the straightaway, and so those points of the track are the toughest part – the transition from straightaway to corner. It’s a fun track to drive.”

There's no other track like the Monster Mile on the circuit, but the best comparison would probably be Bristol's half-mile concrete track. Because of the steep banking and concrete, crew chiefs that do well at Bristol usually brings the same car and set-up the Dover. So before you make your wagers this week, take a look at what happened in April at Bristol.

Jimmie Johnson won that race, taking the the lead from Kevin Harvick with 21 laps to go. Kyle Larson led the most laps (202) and finished sixth while Martin Truex Jr. led the second-most laps (116) and finished eighth. Clint Bowyer would finish second and Matt Kenseth would finish fourth.

Kenseth might be someone to keep an eye on this week and seek out high odds before practice begins. He hasn't won a race all season, nor has any of his Joe Gibbs teammates, but this is a place he likes very much and you have the Bristol thing going for you as well. You should be able to get 15-to-1 or higher on him. He's a three-time winner at Dover, including winning this race last year. He's been seventh or better in six of his last seven starts there and has a 12.8 average finish in 36 starts.

His teammate, Kyle Busch, deserves serious consideration this week just because he's on a roll. His second-place finish at Charlotte made it three straight top-five finishes for him. He's finished second at Dover in two of the past three races there. He's a two-time winner at Dover and his 1,139 laps led in second only Johnson among active drivers.

The entire Gibbs team is showing signs of life lately. Busch, Kenseth and Denny Hamlin all finished in the top-five at Charlotte and rookie Daniel Suarez finished 11th. It was their best collective team effort of the season and a win is coming real soon, like as soon as Sunday.

Larson and Truex should both be considered favorites in this race. Truex, a New Jersey native, calls this his home track and notched his first career win there in 2007 and won there again last fall. Keep Truex's teammate Erik Jones in the back of your mind to consider at 40/1 odds or higher. Trouble seems to often find him, but his car is fast every week and very similar to Truex. He's going to win at some juncture.

But the most amazing tamer of the Monster Mile has been Jimmie Johnson who holds the track record with 10 wins. He's averaged a 9.5 finish over his 30 starts and has led a track record 3,093 laps. He hasn't won in his last three Dover starts which is his longest drought there since 2008.

I'm taking an early shot with Kenseth to win and I'll be scouring the city to see where I can get the best odds. How about 20/1, please?

Second Vegas Date

Also, in case you didn't know Las Vegas Motor Speedway is getting a second date next season. The first date will be March 4 and the second date will be September 16. I've been campaigning for it for 18 years and it finally happened. It's well deserved, but the politics of NASCAR and their agenda with the tracks they own always got in the way. NASCAR doesn't own Las Vegas Motor Speedway so it wasn't in their best interest to give them a second date like they did for Kansas Speedway that they own. Speedway Motorsports Inc., which owns LVMS, had to buy New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and then take away one of their two dates. I'm not a fan of losing New Hampshire's flat 1-mile layout, but I'm okay because only because it benefits my city.

Anyway, the second date is going to kick off the playoffs in grand fashion. It will be a day race which the casinos will like like so they cab get all the 100,000 people back to gambling at night. My hope was that Las Vegas would be where the championship race would be but NASCAR owns Homestead-Miami Speedway where the championship is so it wasn't in their best interest to move it. Politics. I would love to see is the championship race move to different tracks each year, but maybe I'll get that wish in another 18 years. Two races in Las Vegas is pretty awesome. So we've got that, an NHL team, and an NFL team? How about it Miami Marlins? You guys ready for a move? We're a big time city in Las Vegas now and we'll treat you well.

Dillon 100-to-1 Winner

It sure was nice seeing the No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet in victory lane again in the Cup Series. The last time it happened was in 2000 with a Dale Earnhardt win at Talladega. Childresss shelved the car number out of respect for the legend who passed at Daytona in 2001, but felt the time was right four years ago to bring it out of retirement. He gave the car to his grandson, Austin Dillon. Dillon's fuel mileage gamble paid off at Charlotte Sunday night giving him the first Cup win of his career. It was Childress' second win of the season (Ryan Newman at Phoenix) after not winning any races since Kevin Harvick departed. The win paid out at 100/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $10,000) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, but only three people bet it for a total of $20. What a surprise, the house scoops all the chips again.

Top-5 Dover Finish Prediction:

1) #20 Matt Kenseth (15/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
3) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (6/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
5) #42 Kyle Larson (6/1)

 
Posted : May 31, 2017 12:34 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Dover International Speedway Data

Season Race #: 13 of 36 (06-04-17)
Track Size: 1-mile
Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 24 degrees
Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 24 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 9 degree
Banking/Backstretch: 9 degree
Frontstretch Length: 1,076 feet
Backstretch Length: 1,076 feet
Race Length: 400 laps / 400 miles
Stage 1 and 2 Length: 120 laps (each)
Final Stage Length: 160 laps

Top 10 Driver Ratings at Dover

Jimmie Johnson 118.3
Matt Kenseth 108.6
Kyle Busch 105.4
Chase Elliott 100.8
Martin Truex Jr. 94.8
Kyle Larson 92.6
Brad Keselowski 92.5
Kurt Busch 91.4
Kevin Harvick 90.7
Clint Bowyer 89.3

Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2016 races (24 total) among active drivers at Dover Motor Speedway.

Qualifying/Race Data

2016 pole winner:
None – due to inclement weather

2016 race winner:
Matt Kenseth, Toyota
109.348 mph, (03:39:29), 05-15-16

Track qualifying record:
Brad Keselowski, Ford
164.444 mph, 21.892 secs. 05-30-14

Track race record:
Mark Martin, Ford
132.719 mph, (03:00:50), 09-21-97

 
Posted : June 1, 2017 11:55 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Dover - Driver Tale of the Tape

Clint Bowyer 30/1 (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.409, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.419, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.3, 10th-best
· 240 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.377, ninth-fastest
· 5922 Laps in the Top 15 (67.3), seventh-most
· 518 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Kyle Busch 6/1 (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, 11 top fives, 15 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.708, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 10.592, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 105.4, third-best
· 531 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.870, third-fastest
· 7542 Laps in the Top 15 (78.5), fourth-most
· 586 Quality Passes, second-most

Kurt Busch 40/1 (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 17.042, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.852, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 91.4, eighth-best
· 332 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.412, seventh-fastest
· 6230 Laps in the Top 15 (64.8 ), 10th-most
· 551 Quality Passes, third-most

Chase Elliott 10/1 (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average finish of 3.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 8.918, third-best
· Driver Rating of 100.8, fourth-best
· 20 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.608, fourth-fastest
· 749 Laps in the Top 15 (93.6), series-most
· 63 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Denny Hamlin 20/1 (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Three top fives, eight top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 18.182, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.680, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.0, 12th-best
· 165 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.246, 10th-fastest
· 5351 Laps in the Top 15 (60.8 ), 12th-most
· 455 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Kevin Harvick 6/1 (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· One win, five top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.500, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.703, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.7, ninth-best
· 472 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.235, 11th-fastest
· 6080 Laps in the Top 15 (63.3), 11th-most
· 495 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Jimmie Johnson 9/2 (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Ten wins, 15 top fives, 21 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 8.167, second-best
· Average Running Position of 7.819, series-best
· Driver Rating of 118.3, series-best
· 1305 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 145.154, series-fastest
· 8181 Laps in the Top 15 (85.1), second-most
· 531 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth 10/1 (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Three wins, 17 top fives, 24 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.583, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 8.376, second-best
· Driver Rating of 108.6, second-best
· 523 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.908, second-fastest
· 8127 Laps in the Top 15 (84.6), third-most
· 601 Quality Passes, series-most

Brad Keselowski 6/1 (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· One win, five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.143, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.179, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.5, seventh-best
· 197 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.386, eighth-fastest
· 3676 Laps in the Top 15 (65.6), ninth-most
· 315 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kyle Larson 6/1 (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top fives, four top 10s
· Average finish of 9.333, third-best
· Average Running Position of 12.942, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 92.6, sixth-best
· 76 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.435, sixth-fastest
· 1693 Laps in the Top 15 (70.4), sixth-most
· 135 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Joey Logano 15/1 (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Three top fives, ten top 10s
· Average finish of 13.438, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 14.255, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.5, 11th-best
· 105 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.163, 12th-fastest
· 4526 Laps in the Top 15 (70.7), fifth-most
· 420 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Ryan Newman 100/1 (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Three wins, six top fives, 13 top 10s; four poles
· Average finish of 15.833, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.410, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 86.0, 13th-best
· 159 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.113, 13th-fastest
· 5775 Laps in the Top 15 (60.1), 13th-most
· 433 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Martin Truex Jr 6/1 (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, two top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 14.182, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.204, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.8, fifth-best
· 448 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 144.438, fifth-fastest
· 5894 Laps in the Top 15 (66.9), eighth-most
· 501 Quality Passes, sixth-most

 
Posted : June 1, 2017 12:10 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Dover Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's AAA 400 Drive For Autism at Dover International Speedway.

Who's HOT at Dover

• Matt Kenseth has scored six top 10s in eight track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing, including a win in this event last year.
• Martin Truex won last fall and leads all drivers with a combined 234 laps led in both races last year, which used the same tire combination that will be used again this weekend.
• Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers in wins (10) and laps led (3,093).
• Kyle Larson has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts, including a runner-up finish in this event last year after leading 85 laps.
• Kevin Harvick, winner of the 2015 fall race, has combined to lead 810 laps in the last six races.
• Kyle Busch, a two-time winner of the spring race, ranks third in laps led (691) in the last 10 races.
• Brad Keselowski has finished in the top 10 in six of his last nine starts, including a win in the 2012 fall race.

Keep an Eye On at Dover

• Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin each finished in the top 10 in both races at Dover last season. Both of Elliott's results were third-place finishes.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 in eight of his last 10 starts at Dover.
• Kasey Kahne (8.0), Kurt Busch (10.0) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (12.5) each were ranked in the top 10 in average finish in both Dover races last season.
• Ryan Blaney, who finished eighth in this event last year at Dover, has the fifth best average starting position this season.
• Clint Bowyer, who is making his first Dover start with Stewart-Haas Racing, has yet to finish outside the top 15 in the last 11 races this season.
• Rookies Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones each have a win in the Xfinity Series at Dover.
• Jamie McMurray, who finished in the top 10 in both Dover races in 2015, has collected the third most points in the last six races this season.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kevin Harvick
Pete Pistone: Joey Logano
Robbie Mays: Jimmie Johnson
Tyler Burnett: Chase Elliott
John Singler: Denny Hamlin

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Dover

Chase Elliott finished third in both races last season at Dover. He's yet to lead a lap and his best start came in the fall race based on points, in ninth.

Martin Truex Jr. won the fall race at Dover last year to lower his average finish to 5.0 in both races in 2016. Truex also combined to lead a series high 234 laps those two races, which were contested on the same tire setup as this weekend. Since joining Furniture Row Racing in 2014, Truex has yet to finish worse than 11th and has five top-10 finishes.

Brad Keselowski posted a 5.0 average finish in both Dover races last season, posting finishes of sixth or better in each. Since winning the fall race in 2012, Keselowski has posted five more top 10s, including a pair of runner-up finishes in 2014. Last year, Keselowski combined to lead 56 laps at Dover, which ranks sixth among all drivers.

Kyle Larson led 85 laps in this event last year en route to a second-place finish. The runner-up finish was Larson's four consecutive top 10 at Dover. Larson's second-place finish came after starting 23rd when weather canceled qualifying.

Kasey Kahne finished fourth in this event for his third consecutive top 10 at Dover. Kahne finished 12th last fall to give him the best average finish (6.5) among all drivers that have competed in the last four races, but has yet to lead a lap in the last seven Dover races. Kahne's last top 10 outside of a restrictor-plate track this season came at Atlanta, 10 races ago.

Joey Logano finished 22nd in this event last year after receiving damage in a chain-reaction crash during a late-race restart. This finish is his only outside the top 11 in the last 10 races. Dover is Logano's worst track on the schedule based on laps led - he's only led three in 16 starts.

Matt Kenseth scored his third Dover win in this event last year after leading 48 laps. A mechanical issue in the 2015 spring race is Kenseth's only outside the top seven in the last seven races. Kenseth's 3.0 average finish in both Dover races last season is tied for the best with Chase Elliott.

Denny Hamlin finished in the top 10 in both races at Dover last season. Overall, Hamlin has eight top 10s, 276 laps led and an average finish of 18.2 in 22 starts.

Kevin Harvick has turned around his Dover record since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014. In six track starts with the team, Harvick has posted one win and has combined to lead 810 laps - the most by far of any driver in the span. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 1038) that he won the pole, led 77 and finished fourth with at Texas Motor Speedway in April.

Clint Bowyer will make his first Dover start with Stewart-Haas Racing. In his previous 22 starts, Bowyer recorded 12 top 10s and 42 laps led. This season, Bowyer has yet to finish outside the top 15 in the last 11 races.

Jimmie Johnson captured his last of 10 wins at Dover in this event in 2015. Johnson led four laps in this event last year and was up front when his car wouldn’t accelerate on a restart and it collected 18 cars. He finished 25th in that race for only one of four finishes outside the top 20 in 30 starts at Dover where's he's combined to lead 3,093 laps.

Ryan Newman recorded his last of 13 top 10s in 30 Dover starts in the 2014 fall race. He's yet to lead a lap in his six track starts with Richard Childress Racing. Newman's three Dover wins came with Team Penske early in his career.

Kyle Busch, a two-time winner of the Dover spring race (2008 and 2010), finished 30th in this event after getting swept up in a chain-reaction crash during a late-race restart. Busch has finished second in the last two fall races at Dover and combined to lead 121 laps in those events.

Paul Menard scored his last of three top 10s in 19 Dover starts in this event in 2015.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished 32nd in this event after getting caught up in a chain-reaction crash on a late-race restart. The finish snapped a streak of eight finishes of 17th or better, which includes five top 10s.

 
Posted : June 2, 2017 9:19 am
Share: