Toyota Owners 400 Betting News and Notes

Driver's Tale of the Tape at Richmond

Clint Bowyer (No. 15 RK Motors Toyota)

· Two wins, two top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 9.6
· Average Running Position of 10.2, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.5, fourth-best
· 729 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.362 mph, sixth-fastest
· 4,365 Laps in the Top 15 (77.8%), sixth-most
· 437 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), fifth-most

Kurt Busch (No. 78 Furniture Row Racing/ Serta Chevrolet)

· One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
· Average finish of 18.3
· Average Running Position of 15.7, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.6, 10th-best
· 306 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
· 738 Green Flag Passes, 11th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.312 mph, eighth-fastest
· 3,532 Laps in the Top 15 (55.1%), 13th-most
· 371 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

· Four wins, 12 top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 5.4
· Average Running Position of 7.6, third-best
· Driver Rating of 113.9, second-best
· 508 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.778 mph, second-fastest
· 5,607 Laps in the Top 15 (87.5%), second-most
· 491 Quality Passes, third-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard Chevrolet)

· Three wins, nine top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 13.9
· Average Running Position of 15.2, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 85.8, 13th-best
· 320 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
· 839 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most

Carl Edwards (No. 99 Geek Squad Ford)

· Three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.9
· Average Running Position of 15.3, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.4, 11th-best
· 244 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
· 816 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.251 mph, 12th-fastest
· 3,751 Laps in the Top 15 (58.5%), 10th-most
· 368 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet)

· Two wins, 16 top fives, 25 top 10s; five poles
· Average finish of 14.4
· Average Running Position of 13.8, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.6, sixth-best
· 317 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.386 mph, fifth-fastest
· 4,057 Laps in the Top 15 (63.3%), eighth-most
· 381 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)

· Two wins, seven top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 8.1
· Series-best Average Running Position of 5.9
· Series-best Driver Rating of 117.8
· Series-high 582 Fastest Laps Run
· Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 116.832 mph
· 5,221 Laps in the Top 15 (93.1%), third-most
· 400 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Bell Helicopter Chevrolet)

· Two wins, six top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.7
· Average Running Position of 7.5, second-best
· Driver Rating of 111.1, third-best
· 422 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.675 mph, third-fastest
· Series-high 5,910 Laps in the Top 15 (92.2%)
· Series-high 528 Quality Passes

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Dover White Chevrolet)

· Three wins, five top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 16.5
· Average Running Position of 15.3, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.4, ninth-best
· 232 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.251 mph, 11th-fastest
· 3,680 Laps in the Top 15 (57.4%), 12th-most
· 368 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Quaker State Chevrolet)

· One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 18.0
· Driver Rating of 87.8, 12th-best
· 323 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
· 757 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.287 mph, ninth-fastest
· 3,750 Laps in the Top 15 (58.5%), 11th-most
· 378 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Mark Martin (No. 55 Aaron's Dream Machine Toyota)

· One win, 18 top fives, 30 top 10s; five poles
· Average finish of 11.9
· Average Running Position of 13.1, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 92.6, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 116.344 mph, seventh-fastest
· 4,099 Laps in the Top 15 (63.9%), seventh-most

Ryan Newman (No. 39 Outback Steakhouse Chevrolet)

· One win, five top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.6
· Average Running Position of 11.4, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.0, eighth-best
· 5,030 Laps in the Top 15 (78.5%), fourth-most
· 498 Quality Passes, second-most

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Rush Truck Centers/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

· Three wins, 11 top fives, 19 top 10s
· Average finish of 10.4
· Average Running Position of 11.7, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.9, fifth-best
· 275 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
· 815 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
· 440 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Toyota Owners 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

After getting a heavy dose of racing on the newer down force tracks over the past six weeks, we get to see some traditional type of NASCAR racing in the Capital of the Confederacy at Richmond International Raceway this Saturday night. Although we were all kind of getting to know who was good and who wasn't in the new Gen-6 cars on the fast tracks requiring maximum horse-power, it's back to the drawing board this week.

The most important factor to mix in with any betting equation this week is referring to the March 3 race at Phoenix. Richmond is only 3/4-mile in distance while Phoenix is 1-mile, but the banking is similar which makes the crew chiefs try to get the same type of balance on their cars at each track. If a driver did well at Phoenix, they're likely to be ahead over the rest of the field this week.

Carl Edwards led a race high 122 laps at Phoenix and captured his first Cup Series win since Las Vegas in 2011. Edwards has never won at Richmond, but did finish runner-up in the fall of 2011. Jimmie Johnson finished second at Phoenix, followed by Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

For Virginia-native Denny Hamlin, who has been out for the past three races due to back injuries suffered at Fontana, he says he's "50-50" to return to the track he's won twice at before. If his X-rays show this week that he is healing properly, he could be given the green flag and return Saturday night.

If Hamlin can return this week, he'll have 18 races to try and win as many races as he can to win one of the two wild card spots in the Chase. He's currently 26th in points and would need to finish within the top-20 positions to eligible for the wild cards.

While Hamlin would be a considered a long shot to win the race because of his injuries, his skills on the track where he's averaged an 8.1 finish over his career make him a driver to take notice of. The odds on everyone will be drastically impacted if he starts in the No. 11 car Saturday.

The top driver at Richmond, and favorite this week, is Kyle Busch. He's got a track record 5.4 average finish and has won this spring race four consecutive seasons. Busch had some issues last week at Kansas where the howling winds seemed to upset his car, but he still leads the Cup series with five top-5's and is tied with Matt Kenseth and Johnson for the most wins, with two each.

Clint Bowyer has been at his best on these type of tracks. We can mesh Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire all together, and all three flatter tracks have proved to be Bowyer's best over his career. He has two wins at Richmond, including the fall race last season. Bowyer finished sixth at Phoenix.

Johnson is a three-time winner at Richmond, but only has one top-5 finish there in his last eight starts. He becomes a much more likelier candidate to do well because of his solid run at Phoenix in March. They may not have the down-force tracks entirely figured out yet, but the No. 48 team has been collectively good enough to pull out to a commanding 37 point lead in the points race over teammate Kasey Kahne.

Although Brad Keselowski hasn't had the look of a winner in any race this season, it comes as somewhat of a shock to see him sitting third in points with a series best seven top-10 finishes in eight races. Even Johnson only has six top-10's. He had the best Richmond run of his career last season by finishing in the top-10 of both races.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
3) #15 Clint Bowyer (12/1)
4) #99 Carl Edwards (12/1)
5) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (15.1)

Driver Handicaps: Richmond
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Wacingone.com

To help you make your fantasy racing picks, MotorRacingNetwork.com brings you our weekly analysis to help steer you toward Saturday night's Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

Who's HOT at Richmond

• Kyle Busch has won the last four spring races.
• Clint Bowyer has posted two wins and an average finish of 8.7 in the last 10 races.
• Tony Stewart - still seeking first top five of 2013 - has the best average finish (5.8) in the last four races.
• Jeff Gordon has finished third or better in four of the last seven races.
• Carl Edwards has posted an 8.2 average finish and led 427 laps in his last six starts.
• Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 in five of the last seven races, including a win in the 2011 summer race.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Richmond

• Jimmie Johnson, a three-time winner at Richmond, scored his eighth top 10 (sixth place) in this event last year.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. who finished second in this event last year, is a three-time winner at Richmond.
• Kasey Kahne, who posted an 8.5 average finish in his first two Richmond starts with Hendrick Motorsports, will be driving the same chassis he won with at Bristol Motor Speedway last month.
• Richard Petty Motorsports (Aric Almirola and Marcos Ambrose) and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing (Jamie McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya) both tested at Richmond earlier this month.
• Mark Martin (8.8), Ryan Newman (12.8) and Greg Biffle (13.8) each rank in the top 10 in average finish among drivers that have run all four of the last Richmond races on the current left- and right-side Goodyear tire combination.
• Denny Hamlin will not race at Richmond - which is his best track on the schedule in laps led - but will be on hand to help coach Brian Vickers (driving the No. 11 for Hamlin) and Matt Kenseth, who will be making his first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing.
• Brad Keselowski finished in the top 10 in both races at Richmond last season - one of only four drivers to do so.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kasey Kahne
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Dustin Long: Clint Bowyer
John Singler: Clint Bowyer

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Richmond unless noted)

Jimmie Johnson: Three-time winner; 14.9 average finish in the last 10 races; Has finished in the top 10 in the last three spring races; 11.5 average finish and 346 laps led in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same chassis (No. 778) that he finished second with at Phoenix International Raceway in March.

Kasey Kahne: 8.5 average finish in two starts with Hendrick Motorsports; 17.8 average finish in the last 10 races; Best average finish (2.5) in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same chassis (No. 769) that he led 109 laps with en route to the win at Bristol Motor Speedway last month.

Brad Keselowski: Posted first top 10s in seven starts in both races last season; Seventh-place finish last fall is best to date; 4.5 average finish and 62 laps led in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will debut a new chassis (No. 852) in the Toyota Owners 400.

Greg Biffle: Coming off first top 10 (ninth) in the last 12 races; 10.0 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same car (chassis No. 844) that he finished 17th with at Phoenix International Raceway.

Dale Earnhardt Jr: Last of three wins came in the 2006 spring race with Dale Earnhardt, Inc; 18.4 average finish in 10 starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Finished second in this event last year; 15.0 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same car (chassis No. 721) that he finished sixth with at Phoenix International Raceway.

Carl Edwards: Has finished in the top 10 and led 427 laps in five of the last six races; 16.5 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same chassis (No. 802) that he scored the win with at Phoenix International Raceway.

Kyle Busch: Has won the last four spring races; Leads all drivers in average finish (5.0) and wins (4) in the last 10 races; Tied for the second-best average finish (3.5) in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville).

Clint Bowyer: Coming off second win in 14 starts; Has finished seventh or better in five of the last seven races; Tied for the second-best average finish (3.5) in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville).

Paul Menard: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in 12 starts; 13th-place finish in this event last year is best to date; 14.0 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same chassis (No. 419) that he finished 19th with at Martinsville Speedway.

Jamie McMurray: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in six starts in an Earnhardt Ganassi Chevrolet; Tested at Richmond earlier this month; Last of three top 10s in 20 starts came in this event in 2009 with Roush Racing; 8.5 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville).

Kevin Harvick: Last of two wins came in the 2011 summer race; Coming off 15th top 10 in 24 starts; 13.5 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same chassis (No. 420) that he finished 13th with at Martinsville Speedway.

Aric Almirola: 26.0 average finish in two starts; Tested at Richmond earlier this month; 28.5 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same chassis (No. 837) that he finished 15th with at Phoenix International Raceway.

Martin Truex Jr: 22.0 average finish in six starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Last of two top-10s (seventh) in 14 overall starts came in this event in 2010; 26.0 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville).

Matt Kenseth: Posted one win and a 16.5 average finish in 26 starts with Roush Fenway Racing; Making first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing; Was hit with a big 50-point penalty with a post-race engine infraction at Kansas Speedway; 24.5 average finish and 181 laps led in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville).

Jeff Gordon: Two-time winner; Has finished third or better in four of the last seven races; 18.5 average finish and 66 laps led in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville).

Mark Martin: Defending race pole winner; Has posted an average finish of 5.5 in two starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; Fourth-best average finish (9.7) in the last 10 races; Will return in the same chassis (No. 714) that he won the pole and finished 21st with at Phoenix International Raceway.

Ryan Newman: Eighth-best average finish (12.3) in the last 10 races; Five top 10s in eight starts with Stewart-Hass Racing; 19.0 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will debut a new chassis (No. 790) in the Toyota Owners 400.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Making first track start in the Cup Series; Coming off three consecutive top fives in the Nationwide Series at Richmond; 20.5 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same chassis (No. 832) that he finished 16th with at Phoenix International Raceway.

Marcos Ambrose: 16.0 average finish in eight starts; Last of two top 10s came with JTG Daugherty Racing in both races in 2010; Coming off best finish (15th) in four starts with Richard Petty Motorsports; Tested at Richmond earlier this month; 13.5 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will return in the same car (chassis No. 838) that he finished 18th with at Phoenix International Raceway.

Joey Logano: 19.1 average finish in eight starts; 20.0 average finish in the two races with the Gen-6 car on short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville); Will make first track start with Penske Racing driving a new chassis (No. 852).

NASCAR Odds, Driver Ratings and Practice Notes
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- Kyle Busch give us no indication during Friday’s two practice sessions at Richmond International Raceway that he’s the driver to beat in Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400. But when factoring his history at this track and his run of excellence over the past the past 18 races, he’s still easily the favorite.

You could argue that his four straight spring wins at Richmond came in the fifth-generation car, and that all the winning data goes out the window with the Gen-6 car. You could argue that drivers like Martin Truex Jr. and Mark Martin looked better in practice with single-lap and 10-consecutive lap averages. You could also say that the law of averages are against Busch. Five straight event wins would match Richard Petty’s mark set in the fall races from 1970-74.

But Busch just exudes confidence on this track, and strips away bettors’ confidence about going against him. His 5.4 average finish in 16 career Richmond starts is his best on any track – and also the best among all active drivers. He’s finished in the top five in 12 of those 16 starts. There is no mystery with Busch at Richmond: he’s simply the best there is right now.

Last week at Kansas, he lost control of his car when the bad combination of being loose and high wind speeds proved too much. But there still is no denying what he’s done in the Gen-6 car this season, with a series-leading five top-five finishes. The run looks very similar to how he left off in 2012, when he finished the season with seven top fives in his final 10 starts.

Saturday night's Richmond race runs through Busch, but it's still worth discussing a few other drivers that could pull off the upset.

Jimmie Johnson is a three-time Richmond winner, but he last took the checkers here in 2008. This isn’t one of his best tracks, but he gets high marks for his runner-up finish at Phoenix, a track we compare to Richmond and New Hampshire because of its similar distance and flatness. He’s using that same Phoenix chassis this week. Even though his single-lap practice times didn’t show much, he still rolled out the best 10-consecutive lap average in the final session.

Because of the Phoenix angle, we also have to acknowledge Carl Edwards, who will be driving the same car that won at Phoenix in early March. He’s never won at Richmond, but he did have a runner-up finish in the fall of 2011.

Clint Bowyer has always fared his best on these types of tracks. He’s won twice at Richmond, including last fall. Over 14 career races, he’s averaged a 9.6 finish, third-best among active drivers.

The most appealing long shot on the board, however, may be Brian Vickers at 25-to-1. He’s driving the No. 11 Joe Gibbs car that has won twice at Richmond with Denny Hamlin behind the wheel. He hasn’t experienced much success at Richmond, but he’s never been in such a quality car that can pull so many key notes from teammates such as Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth . Plus, he’ll have Hamlin himself coaching from the sidelines on the nuances of his home track.

If Vickers wasn’t in a part-time situation, he might have been right next to Johnson as this race’s second-rated driver behind Busch. He was very impressive in practice, but he’s downgraded because of the unfamiliarity between him and his crew and car.

Matt Kenseth has had a rough week, but he should be all smiles because the last three pole winners this season have gone on to win the race. He hasn’t won at Richmond since 2002, but this is his first go-around at this track in a JGR car. Like Vickers, he's got all the notes at his disposal from six JGR wins over the past 10 races there.

Truex Jr. and Martin barely missed our top-10 cut, as we opted instead for the Hendrick drivers of Dale Earnhardt Jr and Kasey Kahne. Martin led twice for a total of 75 laps at Phoenix before finishing 21st, and he also practiced very well Friday, but it’s hard to imagine a driver who hasn’t won at a track since 1990 recapturing the magic. We would love to see it happen, but we’ll pass despite having him penciled in early in the week as a long shot to consider.