UFC 206 Best Bets
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The Octagon returns to Toronto on Saturday for a 12-fight card. The UFC 206 headliner was originally scheduled to pit light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier against No. 1 contender Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson, but ‘DC’ was forced to withdraw two weeks ago due to an injury.
The promotion offered Johnson a fight against former Strikeforce light heavyweight champ Gegard Mousasi, but Rumble declined the bout in order to wait on his title shot against Cormier that’s expected to happen late in the spring of 2017.
Therefore, Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway will take on Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis in the main event. Pettis missed weight Friday morning, tipping the scales at 148 points over the 145-pound mark required for championship fights. Pettis, the former lightweight kingpin, must forfeit 20 percent of his purse to Holloway.
Also, even if Pettis gets his hand raised, he won’t claim the interim featherweight title. On the other hand, Holloway will get his waist wrapped with UFC gold and earn a shot at Jose Aldo to unify the 145-pound strap with a victory.
Holloway (16-3 MMA, 12-3 UFC) has won nine consecutive fights since losing a unanimous decision to Conor McGregor at UFC Boston on Aug. 17 of 2013. The 25-year-old Hawaiian has four knockouts and a pair of submissions during that stretch.
Holloway’s most notable victories have come over the likes of Ricardo Lamas, Jeremy Stephens, Charles Oliveira, Cub Swanson and Cole Miller.
As of late Friday afternoon, most spots had Holloway listed as a -240 favorite, while Pettis is +200 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $200). The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -225, ‘under’ +185).
Pettis hasn’t been an underdog since beating Benson Henderson at WEC 53 thanks to a Showtime kick that secured a unanimous-decision win as a +150 ‘dog. The Milwaukee native owns notable career scalps over Henderson (twice), Gilbert Melendez, Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone, Joe Lauzon, Stephens and Danny Castillo.
Pettis ended a three-fight losing streak with a second-round submission wins over Oliveira in his 145-pound debut on Aug. 27.
Prediction: I like Holloway to win, but he’s too expensive for my taste. Therefore, I’ll go with one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for the generous +185 payout.
In the co-main event, Donald Cerrone will face Matt ‘The Immortal’ Bown in a welterweight scrap. Cerrone is favorite in the -270 range, leaving Brown at around +230. The total is 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -140, ‘over’ +120).
Brown has spent his media sessions bashing Cerrone this week. Also, it was revealed that when Kelvin Gastelum missed weight for his scheduled bout with Cerrone at UFC 205 in New York City, Brown offered to fight Cerrone on just 24 hours of notice.
This is going to be a slugfest with Fight of the Night honors written all over it. Look for a stand-up war from these exciting fighters.
Brown has lost four of his last five fights, but three of those defeats came in heavy underdog spots against a pair of former welterweight champs, Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks, and Demian Maia, who is currently riding a six-fight winning streak and is overdue a title shot. We should note that Brown had won seven in a row prior to his current 1-4 slide.
Cerrone moved up from lightweight to 170 this year and has ripped off three straight wins by finish. In fact, he handed Rick ‘The Horror’ Story and Patrick Cote the first KO losses of their respective careers. Cerrone is 11-1 in his last 12 fights and hasn’t lost to an opponent not named Rafael dos Anjos since he was beaten by Pettis in January of 2013.
Prediction: Pain (Clubber Lang voice). Blood, lots of it. Assuming it’s not an early finish either way, this could be a Fight of the Year candidate. These might be my two favorite fighters with apologies to Frankie Edgar, The Diaz Brothers, Carlos Condit, Lawler and Cody Garbrandt. I can’t see these two savages surviving more than 12.5 minutes with each other. Let’s go four units on the ‘under’ 2.5 (-140).
Other Best Bets
Despite a nearly two-year layoff, I’m on Tim Kennedy at a -135 price vs. Kelvin Gastelum for two units.
In the prelims headliner on Fox Sports 1, I’m all about Nikita Krylov over Misha Cirkunov at even money for seven units! Krylov has won five in a row, including three first-round finishes and a pair of second-round finishes. He has three KOs and two submissions. Let’s also get a two-unit taste of ‘under’ 1.5 rounds at a -125 price.
Finally, give me John Makdessi over Lando Vannata for 1.5 units to net a +150 return in a lightweight contest on UFC FightPass.