UFC heads to Vancouver
By Sportsbook.ag
Demian Maia (23-6-0) vs. Carlos Condit (30-8-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Maia +105, Condit -135
Welterweight contenders Demian Maia and Carlos Condit meet at UFC on Fox 21.
Demian Maia has been a mainstay on the MMA scene for the better part of a decade, and he has been competing in the UFC since 2007. The 38-year-old Brazilian has won his last five outings, including a submission of Neil Magny that earned him a Performance of the Night award.
At 32 years of age, Carlos Condit is no youngster himself, and he has been fighting in the UFC since 2009. In his most recent fight, Condit lost to Robbie Lawler in a split decision for the UFC Welterweight Championship, and amongst his most notable wins is a unanimous decision over Nick Diaz in 2012.
Maia lands just 1.83 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 44.93 percent. He is strong defensively, absorbing just 1.62 such strikes per minute with a defense rate of 62.71 percent.
Grappling is Maia’s strong suit, and he averages 2.96 takedown attempts per 15 minutes at a 31.25 percent clip. He defends takedowns at a 65.63 percent rate, and averages 1.24 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Maia is hoping that he can get Condit onto the mat, as he won’t be able to win this thing if it turns into a standup brawl.
Condit is more of a power fighter than is his opponent, and he averages 3.80 significant strikes per minute at a 39.54 percent clip. He absorbs 2.44 significant strikes per minute and defends these strikes at a 56.39 percent rate.
The Albuquerque native averages 0.59 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and has a 52.94 percent accuracy, while he defends takedowns 39.78 percent of the time. Condit also averages 1.18 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
UFC on FOX 21 Bouts & Odds
Lightweight Bout:
Alex Ricci +130
Jeremy Kennedy -160
Middleweight Bout:
Ryan Janes +145
Adam Hunter -175
Lightweight Bout:
Thibault Gouti +225
Chad Laprise -290
Lightweight Bout:
Felipe Silva -105
Shane Campbell -125
Middleweight Bout:
Garreth McLellan +205
Alessio Di Chirico -255
Featherweight Bout:
Enrique Barzola +147
Kyle Bochniak -180
Middleweight Bout:
Kevin Casey +180
Sam Alvey -225
Lightweight Bout:
Jim Miller +120
Joe Lauzon -150
Womens Strawweight Bout:
Bec Rawlings +167
Paige VanAant -205
Featherweight Bout:
Charles Oliveira +150
Anthony Pettis -185
SPORTS WAGERS
S. Alvey/K. Casey Under 1½ +163
Kevin Casey may be on life support in the UFC. He has one win in his UFC career, and has a handful of no contests and a draw to accompany two knockout losses. Amongst those no contests is an overturned win in which he was popped for a banned substance and the other was one of the poorest displays of sportsmanship when he received a 'could not continue' from the referee after a gentle eye graze was embellished in order for Casey to avoid fighting Carlos Junior. Casey has been knocked out twice, once to Josh Samman in 2013, and most recently to ground specialist Rafael Natal in January. This was Natal's first knockout win since fighting in the UFC, spanning nine victories. After a draw vs. Elvis Mutapcic in June, in which Casey largely took Elvis down and won the fight with top control, the UFC has setup a horrible stylistic matchup vs. Smile'n Sam Alvey.
Of Alvey's 17 KO wins, 12 of them have occurred in the first round, including three first round KO's in his past six fights. Another fight would be a first round submission win and a first round KO loss. That's five of Alvey's last six fights ending in the first round, with the only outlier being a decision loss to an extremely talented defensive fighter in Elias Theodorou. This will be Alvey's third fight in nine weeks, and it appears after taking a bad style match with Elias in Canada in June, the matchmakers are gifting this lovable company man a couple of perfect matches for his style. Alvey has elite takedown defense, which will completely neutralize Casey. This will put Casey in a position where he has to stand and trade, much like Theodorou did in June. The main difference is, Casey is extremely hittable, being tagged 120 times in his past two fights. Those two opponents have no reputation for being powerful strikers while Alvey has been known throughout his career as a 1st round finisher. Alvey is just 30 years old, he has 27 professional wins and is in the midst of his fighting prime. It is clear where he stands. Unable to beat the likes of future contenders Theodorou or Derek Brunson, Alvey has found a comfort zone in destroying mid-level talent.
The UFC have begun showcasing bigger fights on the exclusive prelims, essentially creating three mini cards on every fight night. The culmination of each one of the segments is featured as a main event which the UFC is selling on Fight Pass or on other large networks separately. While there is no suggestion of match fixing by any means, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that match making is being used to showcase fights with electric finishing potential, and this is a clear case for Saturday's Preliminary main event between Casey and Alvey. Thus, the fight to finish under 7:30 of fight time offers up amazing value given the circumstances in this one. Stylistically, Casey does not have the tools to win inside this range and that jacks the odds up in our favour. This matchup will result in Casey standing and trading with Alvey, and Smile'n Sam has a high probability of shutting Casey's lights out in round one. That’s how we’ll play it.
Demian Maia +101 over Carlos Condit
Saturday August 27, 9:30 PM EST. The decision to drop to Welterweight has been very successful thus far for Demain Maia. He comes into this fight reeling off five straight victories in the 170 lb division, with wins over Gunnar Nelson, Matt Brown, and Neil Magny in his past three bouts. Maia is regarded as the very best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artist in the UFC and he fights to his strengths, implementing an elite takedown/ground game no matter who the opponent.
Carlos Condit comes into the match 2-4 in his past six, with wins coming against Thiago Alves and Martin Kampmann, two unranked welterweights. The losses he has suffered have been vs. the divisions very best however, losing title fights to GSP and Robbie Lawler, and top contender fights to Tyron Woodley and vintage Johny Hendricks. Condit is an elite striker with great stamina, and while most of his losses have been primarily striking matchups resulting in KO's when he wins and decisions when he loses, he hasn't faced someone with this type of submission game in his career.
7-0, 12-0, 6-0, 3-0... These are the successful takedown numbers against Condit scored in his fights while fighting GSP, Hendricks, Kampmann, and Woodley. Condit has a horrible takedown defense, only avoiding the takedown 40% of the time. This area of weakness plays directly into his opponents main strength and while Condit has maintained a lot of offense from his back, attempting this versus someone of Maia's submission caliber, will put him in danger early and often.
Condit has been at the top of the welterweight division for many years, and has been a sort of gatekeeper for the title holders/contenders losing to the best of the division, and following a match vs. Robbie Lawler in which he out struck the now former champion 176 to 92, being given a decision loss had to have been extremely demoralizing. Leading up to this fight, Condit has been openly critical of Maia's style, and critical of how certain fighters are graded on score cards. At first this seemed like one man's opinion on the state of the sport as a whole but more recently, Condit has revealed his disinterest in fighting for much longer, hinting at retirement. Now the comments seem to be creating excuses for a loss that hasn't even happened yet.
Stylistically, this fight gives Maia a huge advantage early, and as the fight wears on, the gas tank for the much older Maia will be a factor in Condit's favour, assuming Condit still has the will to win left in his tank. Maia's dominant top game will allow him to win rounds with ease if and when the fight hits the ground and if he is unable to score a submission victory, by the time the fights hits rounds four and five, this one may have already been decided on the cards through the first three. We aren't in the business of predicting outcomes but all indications are that the wrong fighter is favoured in this one, and Condit is currently favoured based on his entertaining style and top level fights over the past six years. The value is on the underdog in the UFC's main event once again.