Free Picks for Wednesday, Sunday, January 22nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Vernon Croy
Atlanta (-4.5) over Green Bay
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Falcons are the better overall team at home Sunday. Matt Ryan is set for an absolutely epic day against this Packers secondary that is ranked dead last in the NFL in allowing the most passing yards this season. The Falcons have averaged 33.8 PPG this season, which is No. 1 in the NFL, and they just destroyed a very good Seahawks defense by putting up 36 points against them. To put that 36-20 rout in perspective, the Seahawks allowed an average of just 18.3 PPG this season, which is 3rd best in the NFL, and now the No. 1 offense in the NFL faces a Packers defense that has allowed 28.6 PPG on the road this season. The Falcons have completed 72.3% of their passes at home this season, and the Packers opponents have a completion percentage of 68.4% against them on the road this season. The Packers are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game, and the Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after putting up more than 30 points in their previous game. The Cowboys beat themselves last weekend with a bad huddle penalty that took back a big play that would have had them in the red zone at the Packers 20 yard-line. The Cowboys were in the red zone again and Dak threw a bad screen pass that was intercepted, so those two things don't happen and the Cowboys win that game by 6 to 14 points. The Packers won't be so lucky this week, so play Atlanta ATS with extreme confidence
Allen Eastman
Phoenix at Toronto
Play: Toronto
This one should be a blowout! I'm having a great NBA season, much better than the Suns are, and I will keep it going with another strong week of picks. This game is a mismatch. The Suns are just 4-11 straight up over the last month. But one of those wins came at home against the Raptors. I think that Toronto is going to want to get revenge. The Raptors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record, and this Toronto team has an excellent home-court advantage. This game is coming at the end of a three-game road trip for Phoenix. They play against the defending champions on Thursday, then they go to New York City on Saturday, and without rest they will have to head to Toronto on Sunday afternoon before flying home. This is the type of game that NBA players just don't even try in. Toronto will want to get revenge, and this one should be over by halftime. Lay the points.
Art Aronson
Steelers vs. Patriots
Play: Under 51
What more can be said about these two teams which hasn’t literally been said a million times at this point. The Steelers and Patriots are both very familiar to the postseason over the last ten years. New England is led by QB Tom Brady and Pittsburgh is led by Ben Roethlisberger. These are two of the most capable QB’s in NFL history. Last week the Steelers held on for an 18-16 road win in Kansas City. Roethlisberger had 224 yards and zero TD’s. RB Le’Veon Bell had 170 rushing yards. Note that Pittsburgh scored an average of 24.9 PPG in the regular season to rank the team 11th overall. Pittsburgh looked great defensively in the win over the Chiefs, holding them to just 227 total yards. The Patriots pulled away for a 34-16 win over the Texans last weekend. While New England was third overall on offense with an average of 27.6 PPG, it was its defense which was the difference maker this year, finishing No. 1 in allowing 15.6 PPG. The bottom line is, we’re expecting more of a “chess match,” where field position ends up playing a big part in the final outcome. The Steelers had a difficult time against the Chiefs on the road, but now face the top defense in the league. This number is just a little bit high in our opinion, consider a second look at the UNDER in the AFC Championship game.
Marc Lawrence
Steelers vs. Patriots
Play: Over 50
Edges - Patriots: 10-3-1 OVER last 14 home playoff games… Steelers: 16-6-1 OVER last 23 playoff games; and 8-4 OVER last 12 games in this series. With NFL Championship round games having gone 10-5-1 OVER in games with a posted total of more than 46 points, we recommend a 1* play on the OVER total in this game.
Mike Anthony
Steelers vs. Patriots
Play: Under 51
The guys from New England have been playing at a level that is scary. Julian Edelman with 12 targets over the last 5 games, Martellus Bennett with 3 TDs over the last 5 games, and lest not forget their future HoF QB and his 14/1 TD to int ratio. It's going to take an awful lot to put the damper on their party. New England RBs can find holes when teams stack the box, and LeGarrette Blount's 1161 YDs isn't a fluke, or are his 18TDs. When Tom runs the fake option, he gets LBs to freeze, which opens up their quick passing attack. The biggest part is what Brady does when at home, with 12 TDs and 311 YPG in 6 games this season - this isn't going to be changed here.
Pittsburgh isn't always able to disguise what they want to do with the best of deception. On 3rd down and short, teams tend to know Pittsburgh are going to run the ball with their 1884 YDs from scrimmage utility RB Le'Veon Bell. The Pittsburgh back is great at doing just pretty much anything - but when teams are ready for it, like the Pats will be, it isn't going to work out all that well. The Pats have been ranked 3rd vs the run for a reason, only giving up 3.9 YPC and 6 TDs on the ground. The Steelers have allowed the 16th most passing yards on the year, vs the this passing game it will be much the same...wash, rinse, repeat. Big Ben on the road has been less than stellar, with 9 of his 16 total ints when visiting teams - the Pats will be bringing enough pressure and the crowd wont let him forget where he is playing.
LV Traders
Packers at Falcons
Pick: Over
Two of the Top scoring teams square off for the NFC Championship on Sunday. Rodgers is playing out of his mind, like you don't already know. Ryan is showing flashes of the "Ice" he has been known for. Both these QBs are MVP finalists, and have 78TDs between the two of them. Kyle Shanahan will be running the offense still, as he's committed to finishing out the postseason with the Falcons. Each team runs around 60 plays a game, which translate into about 6 yd per play #1 & #2 overall. These teams didn't get this far on defense, it's been all offense and just flat out scoring the opponent. Defensively each team allows 367 Yds of offense that's #22 & #23. Atlanta has a 9-0 Over record at home, while the Pack bring a 7-2 Over record on the road. Last team with the ball wins this one and lives up to the hype.
SPORTS WAGERS
Green Bay +5½ over ATLANTA
The Falcons offensive pedigree has been a major talking point this week and why not? Quarterback Matt Ryan is the favorite to win the NFL's MVP award after leading the league's highest scoring offense. The Falcons are an offensive juggernaut and with the addition of a two-headed running game that includes Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman, they appear primed to make it to the Super Bowl. However, we're not in the business of picking winners and losers. When the “great equalizer” is introduced, landing on the right side of this game becomes much more difficult. We understand that the Falcons can and are likely to score in bunches but their inability to stop an equally dangerous offense has us questioning whether they have the defensive personal to move on. Atlanta finished the regular season 25th in total defense. Quality signal callers have been an issue for the Falcons this season, as they rank 28th against the pass. The Falcons have proven that they can put up numbers against nearly any defense in the league but they’re just as susceptible to the big play as they are on delivering it. The Falcons are soft against the run as well and Ty Montgomery wasn't playing in the first meeting that came after the Packers had lost Eddie Lacy. Rodgers threw for four TD’s that day and there is no reason to expect a downgrade in performance here with a livelier running game. Atlanta is absolutely capable of taking an early lead in this game and never looking back but so are the Packers. If the Falcons we're to falter early, it could be a long swim back. Just ask the number one seed, Dallas Cowboys.
In what looks pretty much like a 50/50 proposition to win outright, we have a hard time leaving these points on the table. We all saw the Packers take an early double digit lead against the Cowboys and Dallas had to fight to the very end just to tie the game but it wasn't enough. The Cowboys found out the hard way what happens when you give Aaron Rodgers the ball with time on the clock. The Packers sealed the deal on a last second field goal and the Cowboys 11-win season went up in smoke. It didn't matter that the Packers were without star wide receiver Jordy Nelson or that they used Montgomery, a wide receiver as their lead tailback, as Rodgers was still able to find open men. It's dangerous to fade a team that is on a serious roll like the Packers are on right now. While the Packers can trade punches with the Falcons offensively, their defense is much better than Atlanta's.
The question is how much weight do we put on Green Bay’s postseason victories and how much weight do we put on Atlanta’s lone postseason victory over Seattle? The Falcons took the lead against the Seahawks last week in the second quarter and never looked back. This will be a much different game since the Seahawks brought in an offense that couldn’t give its defense time to rest. The talent, production and chemistry of the Falcons offense is elite, but their defense is likely to get shredded. Green Bay’s defense has its work cut out for them too but its excellent leadership depth on both sides of the ball is probably a bit tighter overall as a team. That's helped the Packers prepare very well so far down the stretch and into the playoffs and they'll play like the favorite on the Falcons turf. Take the points.
NEW ENGLAND -6 over Pittsburgh
If you're looking for a case to be made for these Steelers, we can't help you. Other than a couple of dynamic offensive playmakers in Le'evon Bell and Antonio Brown, there isn’t a lot to like here. The Steelers were a preseason favorite to be in this position but the way they got here is really unimpressive. The Steelers stumbled through the regular season with an 11-5 record that looks way better on paper than it really is. The Steelers benefited from playing poor teams like the Bengals and Browns. They only have wins against two playoff teams (Giants, Chiefs) while the rest came against lesser competition. Pittsburgh has been in the right place at the right time in these playoffs after drawing the Dolphins (minus their starting QB) in round one. As a double-digit favorite over the Fish, Pittsburgh looked average at best. Next, the Steelers traveled to Kansas City and got lucky to escape with a win after failing to score a touchdown. That’s a rare feat which has only happened six times in league history. The Steelers left many points on the board and if not for a holding call on a two-point conversion at the end of the game, the Chiefs could very well be in this spot. In every aspect of this game, the Steelers are out-manned and outgunned. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is tossing up multiple jump balls a game and while we cannot predict who will win the turnover battle, “Big Ben” is the pivot that is throwing junk all over the field. Finally, the Steelers made headlines this week for all the wrong reasons after Antonio Brown, a team leader, broadcast his head coach's post game speech. It was a neat peak behind the curtain for fans but did nothing but create a huge distraction for the offending player and his team. Something like that would NEVER happen in New England, NEVER. The battle of the sidelines might be the biggest mismatch of all in this game.
Although we have no proof, we suspect Patriots head coach Bill Belichick was smiling after his team's “poor” showing against the Texans. That result should have Patriot players on both sides of the ball focused on cleaning up the mistakes they made last week. The Pats were putrid by their standards last Saturday night but they still covered an 18-point spread against the Texans. A “bad” playoff win sits just fine with us, as we’re getting a deal on the AFC's number one seed. It isn't often that the Patriots are giving up less than a touchdown in a home playoff game. Belichick admitted before his team's game against the Texans that he was already planning for these Steelers. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin seems to be already making excuses after their game was moved to prime time complaining that “BB” had an extra 36 hours to prepare. The problem is that if Tomlin were given an extra two months to prepare, he'd still be out moved by the master.
We played against the Steelers last week and lost but if we had to do it again against K.C. we’d still go against them because Alex Smith was downright horrible and the Steelers needed a holding call to get to this point. We've been warned many times this year and in two playoff games as well that the Steelers lack the key ingredients that fuel a championship run and so they have little chance of going into this environment and defeating this juggernaut. The Patriots left their championship mentality on the table last week because Houston was a cakewalk. They won’t leave it on the table here in what we’re calling an easy and convincing victory.
Randall the Handle
Packers 12-6 at Falcons 12-5
As it stands, about two-thirds of bets being made on this game are on the Packers. That’s perfectly understandable as few are prepared to fade QB Aaron Rodgers right now. Green Bay’s star quarterback is in a groove and as a result, taking back a handful of points against what appears to be an unstoppable thrower has plenty of appeal.
But it’s not the way we’re leaning here. While we respect Rodgers and his team’s offence ability, our concern is with the Packers’ defence. The total for this game is set at an unprecedented 60 points. Even though the oddsmaker didn’t have his best year setting lines, he still has a pretty good idea of what to expect.
The lofty over/under number would indicate that at least one of these teams will be scoring in the 30s. While Green Bay’s offence is being recognized for scoring an abundance of points during its past six games, winning eight straight, it is the Falcons whose output has been equal or greater. Atlanta’s only loss in its past seven games was a one-point setback to the Chiefs when Kansas City returned a two-point convert try 99 yards for the 29-28 winning score. In the six victories, the quick-striking Falcons scored 33 or more points in each contest, scoring in the 40s on two occasions.
The obvious question becomes who will stop who? If the regular season was any indication, the Falcons stand the better chance of succeeding. According to metrics at FootballOutsiders.com, the Packers faced five offences in the league’s top 12 this season went 0-5 against that group which consisted of Washington, Indianapolis, Dallas, Atlanta and Tennessee, losing by an average score of 36.6 -24.6.
After allowing 32 passing touchdowns this season, third most in the NFL, the Pack will now have to deal with MVP candidate Matt Ryan. Despite needing to win its games at the end of the year to qualify for these playoffs, Green Bay still allowed season-high passing yards to Matt Barkley and Sam Bradford. Imagine what Ryan can do here as he brings the league’s highest yards per pass (9.26) and top passer rating (117.2) to go along with his 38 passing touchdowns compared to only seven interceptions.
While Rodgers posts similar numbers, Ryan has stud receiver Julio Jones to throw to while Rodgers’ favourite receiver, Jordy Nelson, is unlikely to play this Sunday. The Packers were able to overcome the loss of Nelson in the win over Dallas last week, but his absence is immeasurable as he led all receivers in touchdowns this season with 14. But it’s no secret that he is No. 12’s favourite target evidenced by Rodgers averaging 275 yards passing and 2.4 touchdowns per game with Nelson in the lineup compared to 239.6 yards and 1.9 touchdowns per contest without him over the past three seasons. With Davante Adams also a question mark, Randall Cobb suddenly jumps back into the picture as Rodgers’ go-to guy.
Dan Quinn has brought the Seattle model with him to Atlanta, albeit with a stronger offence and developing defence. It has been an ascending work in progress and it could be peaking at the right time. We’re willing to spot the points here in order to find out. TAKING: FALCONS -5
Steelers 13-5 at Patriots 15-2
Some are citing New England’s easy path to this game as a reason to back the Steelers. We’re not prepared to penalize a 15-2 Patriots team for that.
If you’re to use that argument, it has to cut both ways and Pittsburgh’s passage wasn’t exactly imposing. The Steelers were expected to take care of the inferior Dolphins and did so. The win against Kansas City was a win but it was less than inspiring. Despite Pittsburgh deploying the much feared Killer B’s (Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown), the Steelers best ‘B’ weapon was kicker Chris Boswell after his six field goals would account for all of Pittsburgh’s points in the 18-16 win.
Sure, that was only one game, but when you watch Mike Tomlin’s club inside the red zone lately, it is an issue that cannot simply be swept aside. Pittsburgh’s red-zone touchdown rate (55.4%) ranked just 14th in the NFL. Now QB Roethlisberger and his playmakers will try to penetrate the stingiest defence in the NFL. The Patriots are known more for Tom Brady and the offence than they are on the defensive side of things. However, the Pats allowed the fewest points in the league this year, a paltry 15.6 per game. Only one of New England’s past eight opponents have been able to score more than 17 points. If the Patriots get out to a lead, forcing Pittsburgh to pass and not utilizing RB Bell could be problematic especially when considering Big Ben’s very mediocre numbers on the road this season.
Talent on the field is one thing while preparation and coaching is another and no one is better at it than Bill Belichick. Schemes and the team that is better at executing them is what decides playoff games. Belichick lays over the dorky Pittsburgh coach in this area. It’s no wonder, that despite Pittsburgh’s success over the years, the Patriots have won and covered seven of eight against this AFC foe when Brady and Belichick have teamed up.
Even Tomlin knows that a key to success in this game will be pressuring Brady. Give Tom Terrific time in the pocket and he’ll carve you up. And getting to him is easier said than done. The Pats have been strong on the offensive line all season long and when TE Martellus Bennett is not out in the flat catching passes, his exceptional blocking skills only make it more difficult for pass-rushers.
Brady is the winningest playoff quarterback in history with 23 victories compared to just nine defeats, including a 14-3 mark at Gillette. The MVP quarterback is 4-0 on home field against Pittsburgh with the Patriots’ only loss to the Steelers with Belichick as coach occurring back in 2008, when Matt Cassel was New England’s quarterback.
The Patriots lost two games this entire season, one of them being the fourth game of Brady’s suspension. Perhaps a subpar performance in last week’s win over Houston is resonating with some, even the oddsmaker. What we see is a team that still won by 18 points against a strong defence. With all they have going for them, there’s little reason to believe that New England isn’t one touchdown better than this vincible visitor. TAKING: PATRIOTS -5.5
Sean Murphy
Steelers vs. Patriots
Play: Under 51
We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Patriots sloppy blowout win over the Texans last Saturday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however.
The Chiefs laid out a pretty good gameplan for slowing down the Steelers offense last week, or at least for how to keep them out of the end zone. I expect the Patriots to employ a similar bend but don't break style here in the AFC Championship Game.
While the Steelers are known for their offensive prowess, it's been their defense that has arguably led the way in these playoffs. This is a unit that's brimming with confidence right now, and one that is playing with a lot of swagger - something they'll need against the Patriots, who are rarely taken down at home in the postseason.
The oddsmakers have been off the mark with Steelers totals in both previous playoff games and I believe that's the case again here. Two familiar opponents lends itself to a lower-scoring game than anticipating on Sunday night.
3G-Sports
Central Florida vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -5
UCF has won seven of its past eight games, but I'll side with Memphis here on Sunday, who is also rolling. Memphis has won five of six and averages over 78 points/game. And the Tigers have covered six of the last seven home meetings with the Knights. KJ Lawson had career highs with 28 points and 16 rebounds, Dedric Lawson had 18 points and 10 boards and Memphis beat Houston 70-67 in overtime Thursday night. UCF has struggled on the road as well this season. I like Memphis in this spot at home.
Jim Feist
Virginia Tech at Clemson
Pick: Under
Virginia Tech heads out on the road and the Under is 12-5 in Hokies last 17 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Clemson plays tough defense and won't be in a good mood. The Under is 9-3 in Tigers last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. They are also 35-17-1 under the total in Sunday games.
DAVE COKIN
STEELERS AT PATRIOTS
PLAY: STEELERS +6
I don’t have a strong take on this game. The Patriots obviously deserve to be the favorite. But the number is higher than it ought to be on the math, and to be honest, I’m not as sold on New England as I was earlier in the season.
The basis for that opinion is amplified by the stats down the stretch for the Patriots. They weren’t exactly dominating, and this was against an array of mostly lousy opponents. I wasn’t wowed by the showing last week against the Texans, either, in spite of New England finding a way to get the cover while eliminating Houston.
The flip side is that the Steelers did pretty much everything they could to lose a game they probably should have won fairly easily last week at Kansas City. Let’s put it this way. If Pittsburgh has to settle for field goals every time they visit the red zone at Foxboro, their season is going to come to an end today.
I believe this has a chance to be a nail biter. It certainly shapes up that way when doing the statistical comparisons, particularly when only focusing on the latter portion of the season. I happen to give considerably more weight to current form rather than the full season data, and those numbers say that the Steelers are getting too many points here.
I’m only making this a small play for my personal service clients. With all due respect to my own calculations, this is Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and I really don’t like playing against those two, especially at Foxboro. But I’ve got to trust the digits to some extent and that gets me to the window with the Steelers plus the points.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona St +8.5
This might be a tough spot for SC, in a sandwich situation between highly-ranked Arizona prior to a crosstown showdown vs. UCLA later in the week. The Trojans have had trouble covering lately as chalk (1-6 last 7 in role), as their offense has adopted more of a halfcourt mindset, with skinny 6-11 soph pivot Chimezie Metu (18.8 ppg last four thru Jan. 18) now the focus of the attack. That has slowed the Trojan pace and likely makes it harder to extend the margin vs. ASU and its 82 ppg offense, led by four 14-ppg-or-better scorers, including 6-5 Buffalo transfer Torian Graham (18.1 ppg).
Scott Rickenbach
Warriors vs. Magic
Play: Magic +13½
Even though the Warriors have won 6 games in a row and have covered 4 straight games, this looks like the ideal spot to fade them. Golden State's most recent games have included match-ups with teams like the Rockets, Thunder, and Cavaliers. All of those are teams that are easy for GS to get "up" for in terms of motivational levels. I don't foresee the Warriors as being able to be too excited about this ultra early game at Orlando on a Sunday morning that starts at 9 AM on the body clocks of Golden State (they are accustomed to Pacific time). Also, the Warriors have game on deck at Miami for tomorrow so, even if they do get up big in this game, the late game focus will be on resting guys and getting ready for tomorrow's game. Look for Golden State to win this game but it is very likely to be less than 10 points. That said, with this line jumping all the way from an 11.5 up to as high as a 13.5 as of early gameday morning, there is come nice line value here with the home dog.